How Will Aramark Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Aramark (NYSE:ARMK) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 17, 2025. The company has $10 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $18 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $793 Mil in operating profits and net income of $362 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Aramark’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -2.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2025 | -8.2% | -9.0% | -9.4% |
| 5/6/2025 | 10.1% | 13.6% | 18.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | -2.1% | -2.0% | -6.5% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.7% | -3.7% | 5.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.5% | 5.9% | 9.5% |
| 5/7/2024 | -2.8% | 5.6% | 1.1% |
| 2/6/2024 | -0.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| 11/14/2023 | -8.2% | -2.3% | -4.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | 7.4% | 0.4% | -1.7% |
| 5/9/2023 | 4.8% | 10.5% | 20.1% |
| 2/7/2023 | -6.8% | -11.0% | -14.0% |
| 11/15/2022 | 4.3% | 3.2% | 10.1% |
| 8/9/2022 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
| 5/10/2022 | 1.0% | -1.9% | 1.0% |
| 2/8/2022 | 2.6% | -1.6% | -4.3% |
| 11/16/2021 | 0.7% | -4.4% | -9.6% |
| 8/10/2021 | -1.9% | -1.2% | -2.5% |
| 5/11/2021 | -1.9% | 2.7% | -0.8% |
| 2/9/2021 | -2.6% | 0.2% | 12.2% |
| 11/17/2020 | -1.1% | 2.0% | 6.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.3% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 13.6% | 20.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.2% | -11.0% | -14.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -9.1% | 3.8% | 65.8% |
| 3Y History | -7.3% | 18.9% | 77.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Aramark stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Aramark. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMK Earnings Dates | ARMK | SYY | UNF | GPC |
| 8/5/2025 | -8.2% | 1.1% | N/A* | -0.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | 10.1% | -0.3% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/4/2025 | -2.1% | -1.2% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.7% | 4.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.5% | -1.6% | N/A* | 2.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | -2.8% | 2.0% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/6/2024 | -0.4% | -0.5% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/14/2023 | -8.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% |
| 8/8/2023 | 7.4% | -4.0% | N/A* | 0.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | 4.8% | 0.2% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/7/2023 | -6.8% | -0.3% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/15/2022 | 4.3% | -0.8% | 10.8% | 14.9% |
| 8/9/2022 | 2.5% | N/A* | N/A* | 3.9% |
| 11/16/2021 | 0.7% | -3.9% | -1.4% | 1.7% |
| 8/10/2021 | -1.9% | N/A* | N/A* | -1.3% |
| 5/11/2021 | -1.9% | 1.0% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/9/2021 | -2.6% | 4.4% | N/A* | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -4.9% | -59.1% | 7.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ARMK
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