The shares of Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) have reached 2018 levels assisted by the surge in natural gas prices which has benefited operating cash flows and subsequently debt retirals. The company is engaged in exploration and production of natural gas and natural gas liquids in the Appalachian Basin. Antero’s financials took a hit last year as natural gas prices tanked – triggering a plunge in the stock. Despite the company’s de-leveraging strategy to lower price risk, Trefis believes that the stock has reached its near-term potential. Moreover, the uncertain demand environment due to the coronavirus crisis, coupled with rising production volumes in the U.S., are likely to weigh on oil & gas benchmark prices.
So, is Antero Resources stock likely to recover in the coming weeks and months or is a decline more likely? Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, AR stock has a 47% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Antero Resources Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
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Five Days: AR 11%, vs. S&P 500 -0.06%; Outperformed market (7% event probability)
- Antero Resources stock gained 11% over a five-day trading period ending 12/22/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 0.06% over the same period.
- Returns of 11% or higher over 5-day period in 149 times out of 2059 (7%); Stock rose in the next five days in 81 of these 149 instances (54%).
Ten Days: AR 6%, vs. S&P 500 -1.1%; Outperformed market (22% event probability)
- Antero Resources stock gained 6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 1.1%.
- Returns of 6% or higher over 10-day period in 457 times out of 2054 (22%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 216 of these 457 instances (47%).
Twenty-One Days: AR -0.6%, vs. S&P 500 -1.2%; Outperformed market (52% event probability)
- Antero Resources stock declined 0.6% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 1.2%.
- Returns of -0.6% or lower over 21-day period in 1064 times out of 2043 (53%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 504 of these 1064 instances (47%).
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|S&P 500 Return||-1%||24%||107%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||0%||45%||289%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/22/2021
 Cumulative total returns since 2017
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