AppFolio Stock To $160?

AppFolio (APPF) stock has fallen by 20.2% in less than a month, from $285.18 on 9/22/2025 to $227.50 now. What comes next? As it turns out, the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of stock’s Very High valuation, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $160 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years.

So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on APPF stock to help you make the decision. The stock has returned (median) 53% in one year, and 97% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, APPF provides cloud-based property management solutions with automated workflows, user-friendly interfaces, and value-added services to streamline real estate business processes.

For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell AppFolio Stock to see the full picture.

APPF stock has fallen meaningfully recently and we currently find it relatively expensive. While this may feel like an opportunity, there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. On the other hand, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager – whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Historical Median Returns Post Dips

Historical Dip-Wise Details

APPF had 2 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered

• 97% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
• 268 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
• -5.3% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event

AppFolio Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks

Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.

Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.