How Will Amphenol Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Amphenol (NYSE:APH) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $182 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $23 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $6.0 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.3 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Amphenol’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 2.4%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -1.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/28/2026 | -12.2% | -11.5% | -10.7% |
| 10/22/2025 | 3.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% |
| 7/23/2025 | -1.1% | 3.5% | 6.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | 8.2% | 16.6% | 30.3% |
| 1/22/2025 | 7.0% | -5.7% | -4.6% |
| 10/23/2024 | 2.4% | 3.0% | 6.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -6.4% | -6.5% | 1.4% |
| 4/24/2024 | 1.8% | 5.7% | 17.8% |
| 1/24/2024 | 2.8% | 4.9% | 8.7% |
| 10/25/2023 | 0.5% | 1.6% | 13.7% |
| 7/26/2023 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| 4/26/2023 | -1.3% | 0.7% | -2.5% |
| 1/25/2023 | -0.1% | 0.4% | -2.3% |
| 10/26/2022 | 0.6% | 5.5% | 10.1% |
| 7/27/2022 | 7.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% |
| 4/27/2022 | 2.3% | 5.0% | 0.3% |
| 1/26/2022 | 0.4% | 4.1% | -1.2% |
| 10/27/2021 | -3.8% | -1.2% | 7.0% |
| 7/28/2021 | 0.5% | 4.9% | 7.7% |
| 4/28/2021 | -1.1% | -3.2% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 4.9% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -5.7% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 8.2% | 16.6% | 30.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -11.5% | -10.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 29.7% | 2.1% | 42.5% |
| 3Y History | 31.9% | 0.4% | 63.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Amphenol stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Amphenol. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| APH Earnings Dates | APH | TEL |
| 1/28/2026 | -12.2% | -4.0% |
| CORRELATION | � |
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