Could Late Biosimilar Launches Slow Amgen Stock?
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Amgen (AMGN) stock returned 59.4% over the past year, against 9.9% for the S&P 500. The shares also cost more per dollar of earnings than the index, suggesting that buyers expect the company’s growth to continue. Part of that expansion comes from biosimilars, which are Amgen’s versions of drugs such as EYLEA, and the company has more of them in development. On a November 3 call, management outlined what it will take for those upcoming launches to succeed. What could go wrong for Amgen’s next biosimilars?
Amgen Could Launch Its Next Biosimilars Too Late
The risk is that Amgen’s next biosimilars reach the market after the first wave of competing products, and it remains too early to know whether they will. During the November 3 call, management said Amgen aims to be first or in the first wave with its biosimilar launches. Executives called this timing “really important to establish a decent competitive position,” adding that management believes Amgen is in that position.
The next four pipeline drugs are versions of EYLEA HD, OPDIVO, KEYTRUDA and OCREVUS, which management called large market opportunities. Because all four are still in late-stage clinical development, an early launch is management’s belief, not a result.
How Much Of Amgen’s Sales Come From Biosimilars?
Biosimilars generated $977 million in fiscal Q3 2026, accounting for about 9% of Amgen’s total revenue. While they remain a small part of the company, these sales are growing rapidly. Biosimilar sales rose 26% from a year earlier, compared with an 8% increase for all of Amgen’s product sales. PAVBLU, Amgen’s version of EYLEA, made up $300 million of that total, climbing 41% from a year earlier.
The stock price leaves little room for disappointment. Amgen closed on November 5 just 3.8% below its highest close of the past year. The stock trades at 26.5 times earnings, against 22.9 for the S&P 500.
Should Amgen Shareholders Worry About Biosimilars?
Shareholders should worry somewhat, though this risk would build slowly. Amgen’s biosimilar growth so far comes from medicines already on sale, such as PAVBLU, meaning you cannot judge the next four launches based on current performance.
Amgen is also adding factory capacity. The company expects about $2.6 billion of capital spending in 2026, partly to prepare for a potential launch of MariTide, its obesity treatment in Phase III trials. Asked on the call whether Amgen might scale back biosimilars to free capacity for that launch, management said it considers all options in managing capacity. Executives added, however, that supplying biosimilars puts no strain on capacity, and that the new capacity is designed for larger quantities of protein than biosimilars require.
If the next launches arrive late, you would lose part of Amgen’s future growth rather than the sales it generates today. Furthermore, biosimilars account for a small share of revenue. For now, biosimilar sales are growing well ahead of the rest of Amgen, while an early launch for the next four drugs is still management’s belief. When Amgen next reports, expected in February 2027, watch for any update on when the next four biosimilars could launch.
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