Is Amgen Stock Poised for a Rally?
Amgen (AMGN) stock is at an interesting point right now. If you bet on it, you are betting on a company that’s growing reasonably, is sustaining good cash flow and margin, has low-debt capital structure, and is relatively cheaply valued. But is that enough?
Why Bet On AMGN Now?
The investment thesis is centered on the ability of the high-growth portfolio (Rare Disease, Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE) and the successful advancement of the MariTide obesity drug to generate enough new revenue to more than offset the predictable, but significant, sales erosion from the Prolia/Xgeva loss of exclusivity.
- The acquired Rare Disease portfolio grew 14% year-over-year to $5.2B.
- Key growth drivers demonstrated strong FY2025 performance: Repatha grew 36%, EVENITY grew 34%, and TEZSPIRE grew 52%.
- The obesity drug candidate, MariTide, is advancing through a large Phase 3 program, targeting a potential $100 billion market by 2030.
While there may be reasons to consider AMGN stock for your portfolio, it is important to analyze what has been driving its stock price recently to understand ground reality.
How Do The Fundamentals Look?
- Revenue Growth: 9.1% LTM and 12.5% last 3 year average.
- Operating Margin: Nearly 24.6% 3-year average operating margin.
- No Margin Shock: Amgen has improved in the last 12 months.
- Modest Valuation: Despite these fundamentals, AMGN stock trades at a PE multiple of 22.5
Below is a quick comparison of AMGN fundamentals with S&P medians.
| AMGN | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Health Care | – |
| Industry | Biotechnology | – |
| PE Ratio | 22.5 | 23.3 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 9.1% | 7.4% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 12.5% | 5.7% |
| LTM Operating Margin Change | 6.6% | 0.2% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 28.4% | 18.4% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 24.6% | 18.3% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 23.1% | 14.4% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
The Bear View & The Current Investment Debate
The current investment debate on AMGNis centered around: The conflict between strong growth from new products (Rare Disease, Repatha, TEZSPIRE) and the certain, significant revenue loss from the Prolia/Xgeva franchise facing biosimilar competition.
The prevailing sentiment is bearish. A wall of certain headwinds. The imminent Prolia/Xgeva patent cliff and IRA pricing pressure create a significant revenue hole. Weakening FCF conversion and opex bloat suggest execution challenges.
| Bull View | Bear View |
|---|---|
| The growth portfolio and MariTide obesity pipeline will generate enough new revenue to more than offset the predictable Prolia/Xgeva sales erosion, enabling a return to sustainable growth. | The Prolia/Xgeva sales decline will be faster and deeper than expected, creating a revenue gap that the current growth drivers cannot fill, leading to near-term earnings misses. |
It is one thing to understand the bear view, it is completely another to hold an investment through volatile market phases. It certainly makes you a more resilient investor if you internalize how the stock has fallen during past market crashes. Staying invested is critical to realize large gains.
AMGN Is Just One of Several Such Stocks
Not ready to act on AMGN? Consider these alternatives:
These stocks have strong operating margin, and are trading meaningfully below 1Y high with P/E below S&P 500 median and P/S below historical average.
A portfolio that was built starting 12/31/2016 with stocks that fulfill the criteria above would have resulted in average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 12.7% and 25.8% respectively, with win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of above 70%.
Portfolios Over Value Hunting
Buying stocks that seem like a bargain is a high-conviction move, but it comes with its own set of risks. When a value play takes longer than expected to turn around, or dips even further, it is easy to lose patience and exit, thus missing the exact recovery you were waiting for. The most reliable way to survive the wait is through a portfolio approach
The Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ) is designed to keep you in the trade. By spreading your exposure across 30 quality stocks, it washes out the risk of a single “falling knife” ruining your returns. The rule based HQ strategy has returned > 105% since inception and has beaten its benchmark.