Down More Than 20% Last Month, Can AMD Stock Turn Things Around?

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AMD: Advanced Micro Devices logo
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Advanced Micro Devices

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. stock (NASDAQ: AMD) is down 22% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing much worse than the S&P 500, which was down 3.2% over this period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last week and ten days, too, the stock has returned -2% and -15%, performing much worse than the broader markets on both occasions. AMD announced preliminary Q3 ’22 earnings earlier this month, with revenue at around $5.6 billion, lower than the prior outlook of around $6.7 billion, primarily due to weak client segment sales, which are expected to be down 53% QoQ and 40% YoY. Non-GAAP gross margins are expected to come in at around 50%, lower than the previously expected 54%. Earnings have been impacted by reduced processor shipments due to a weaker than expected PC market and significant inventory correction actions across the PC supply chain, according to the company.

Now, is AMD stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 68% chance of a rise in AMD stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on AMD Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Stock Return. 

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Twenty-One Day: AMD -22%, vs. S&P500 -3.2%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 68% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • AMD stock lost 22% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.2%
  • A change of -22% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 111 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 111 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 75 occasions
  • This points to a 68% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AMD -15%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Underperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • AMD stock lost 15% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.1%
  • A change of -15% or more over ten trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 152 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 152 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 83 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AMD -2%, vs. S&P500 -0.2%; Underperformed market

(34% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

  • AMD stock lost 2% over a five-day trading period ending 10/20/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down a marginal 0.2% over this period.
  • A change of -2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 844 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 844 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 455 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Oct 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 AMD Return -9% -60% 409%
 S&P 500 Return 2% -23% 64%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% -27% 190%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/21/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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