What Does Applied Materials Stock’s Winning Streak Really Prove?

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Shares of Applied Materials (AMAT), the U.S. semiconductor equipment maker, outpaced the S&P 500 in each of the last four years. Such a record looks like proof of an exceptional company. So how many of 485 large U.S. stocks do you think did the same?

How Rare Is Applied Materials’ Winning Streak?

As the table shows, the stock beat the index in each of the four most recent years, though not in the first year shown, when measuring price changes before dividends.

Out of the 485 current S&P 500 members with five years of prices, only 23 achieved the same result over those four years.

Most stocks fall short of the index. Fewer than half of these names beat the benchmark in three of the four years, and only 30% managed to do so in the twelve months to October 2025. Outperforming four years running is rare.

Could A Streak Like This Be Luck?

In a field of nearly 500 stocks, a few will string together long streaks even if no single company performs better than the rest. About four in ten of these stocks beat the index during a typical year of this streak.

Now suppose the winners emerge by pure luck. If you drop all 485 names into a hat each year and draw just over four in ten as that year’s winners, about 13 names will surface every single time over a four-year period. Those 13 companies would record a four-year winning streak without any skill involved at all.

In reality, 23 companies maintain such a streak, representing nearly twice as many as luck alone would produce. That means some of the 23 arrive there on merit and some by luck, and the share price offers no way to tell the difference.

Did Applied Materials’ Profit Grow Through The Streak?

Chipmaking machines in the Semiconductor Systems business generate most of Applied’s sales, accounting for 73% of revenue in fiscal 2025. The company derives most of its remaining revenue from parts and services sold through Applied Global Services.

Its net income over twelve months, including one-time items, did not rise every year. Across the streak, profit is measured from the year ended July 2022 to the year ended July 2026. Net income in the twelve months to July 2023 was 3.1% below the twelve months to July 2022, and fiscal 2025 net income came in 2.5% below fiscal 2024. The stock still beat the index in the years to October 2023 and October 2025.

Profit grew 39% across the whole streak while the stock rose 328%, meaning the share price climbed far faster than the profit did. That stands as evidence you can check, rather than a ruling on skill or luck.

What To Watch Instead Of The Streak

The business is growing now, with revenue rising 24.8% from a year earlier in fiscal Q3 2026. During the August 13, 2026 call, management said it expects packaging revenue to grow more than 70% in calendar 2026 and Applied Global Services to grow more than 20%. At an October 13, 2026 investor presentation, the company said it expects to gain more than two percentage points of chip equipment market share by 2030.

A streak only shows what the share price did, not what the business will earn next. Applied’s net income growth over twelve months is the figure to watch, and the company is expected to report its fiscal Q4 2026 results in November 2026.

Does This Mean You Should Act On AMAT?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you can make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.

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