How Will Applied Materials Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, November 13, 2025. The company has $182 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $29 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $8.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $6.8 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Applied Materials’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 5 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 28% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 5 positive returns = 3.7%, and median of the 13 negative returns = -3.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/14/2025 | -14.1% | -15.1% | -9.2% |
| 5/15/2025 | -5.3% | -7.9% | 1.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.2% | -6.5% | -15.4% |
| 11/14/2024 | -9.2% | -5.3% | -8.7% |
| 8/15/2024 | -1.9% | -5.3% | -11.3% |
| 2/15/2024 | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% |
| 11/16/2023 | -4.0% | -2.7% | 3.8% |
| 8/17/2023 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| 5/18/2023 | -2.3% | 0.7% | 6.9% |
| 2/16/2023 | 0.0% | -3.3% | 7.7% |
| 11/17/2022 | 0.2% | 1.6% | -0.2% |
| 8/18/2022 | -3.4% | -2.8% | -16.9% |
| 5/19/2022 | -3.9% | 4.2% | -13.8% |
| 2/16/2022 | -3.2% | -5.2% | -4.0% |
| 11/18/2021 | -5.5% | -9.6% | -8.5% |
| 8/19/2021 | -1.5% | 2.7% | 5.1% |
| 5/20/2021 | -1.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| 2/18/2021 | 5.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -5.3% | -9.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -15.1% | -16.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -0.5% | -6.1% | -37.1% |
| 3Y History | 1.4% | -17.4% | -44.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Applied Materials stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Applied Materials. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT Earnings Dates | AMAT | TXN | MCHP | LRCX |
| 8/14/2025 | -14.1% | -9.2% | -0.3% | 8.4% |
| 5/15/2025 | -5.3% | 24.5% | 23.7% | 27.1% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.2% | -9.2% | 2.2% | 10.8% |
| 11/14/2024 | -9.2% | 6.9% | -12.6% | 2.6% |
| 8/15/2024 | -1.9% | 2.5% | -3.6% | -3.4% |
| 2/15/2024 | 6.3% | -7.1% | -3.7% | 7.7% |
| 11/16/2023 | -4.0% | 4.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% |
| 8/17/2023 | 3.7% | -10.3% | -11.6% | 1.0% |
| 5/18/2023 | -2.3% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 21.9% |
| 2/16/2023 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% |
| 11/17/2022 | 0.2% | 9.0% | 24.1% | 39.7% |
| 8/18/2022 | -3.4% | 11.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% |
| 5/19/2022 | -3.9% | 0.2% | 3.1% | -1.9% |
| 2/16/2022 | -3.2% | -2.6% | 1.8% | -0.9% |
| 11/18/2021 | -5.5% | -1.2% | 0.8% | 12.4% |
| 8/19/2021 | -1.5% | -4.2% | -1.5% | -9.1% |
| 5/20/2021 | -1.3% | -2.0% | 3.5% | -2.3% |
| 2/18/2021 | 5.3% | 3.6% | 8.9% | 12.2% |
| CORRELATION | 7.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | |
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