How Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALNY) is set to report its earnings on Monday, January 12, 2026. The company has $52 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $265 Mil in operating profits and net income of $44 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 1.5%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -6.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -6.7% | -9.8% | -5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | 15.4% | 26.0% | 33.1% |
| 2/15/2024 | -10.2% | -0.8% | -9.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | 2.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | 1.7% | -0.3% | 5.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | 3.0% | 5.7% | -2.9% |
| 1/9/2023 | -2.3% | 4.7% | -1.8% |
| 10/27/2022 | -3.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% |
| 7/28/2022 | 1.1% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 4/28/2022 | -7.6% | -7.4% | -18.9% |
| 1/10/2022 | 1.4% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 10/28/2021 | -15.2% | -9.6% | -1.4% |
| 8/3/2021 | 0.5% | 12.5% | 13.2% |
| 4/29/2021 | -2.7% | -7.6% | -2.3% |
| 2/11/2021 | 0.7% | -8.5% | -13.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 7.3% | 11.2% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -7.6% | -2.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.4% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Max Negative | -15.2% | -9.8% | -18.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 5.2% | 17.8% | 8.0% |
| 3Y History | 40.9% | 58.3% | 30.9% |
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