Has Buying Alamos Gold Stock’s Dips Paid Off?
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Shares of Alamos Gold (AGI) have fallen 17.7% from their recent high on October 9, closing on November 3 at their lowest price in a year. The steepest daily decline, a 9.0% drop, came on October 29 when the gold miner held its third-quarter earnings call. Bargain hunters may be tempted to step in. So what happened to investors who bought Alamos Gold’s earlier falls of this size?
Dip Buyers Gained On Half Of Alamos Gold’s Falls
Over a full year, buying Alamos Gold after a fall like this one has worked as often as it has failed. The stock is down 25.4% when measured over 30 trading days rather than from the October 9 high. October 9 was the highest close of the past month. The stock had closed higher, at $36.29, on September 22. A drop of more than 20% in 30 trading days is nothing new for the stock: it has experienced 26 of them since the start of 2010, including this latest decline. Of the 24 falls more than a year old, 12 left the stock higher a year later. The typical buyer roughly broke even with a median gain of 0.5% over that year, and overall results ran from a 49% loss to a 249% gain. The remaining two declines, in May 2026 and now, are too recent to judge.
Even that near-flat result required patience. Buyers typically had to sit through a further slide, as the lowest close in the year after a dip was 21.8% below the price on the day of the decline. The best price over that year arrived a median 132 days in, or about four months. Investors holding for the full year often gave back much of the rise.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median AGI price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 25 | 5.0% |
| 63 trading days | 25 | 10.0% |
| 126 trading days | 24 | 7.0% |
| 252 trading days | 24 | 0.5% |
| Dip date | AGI price change over the 30 trading days to the dip date | SPY price change over the same days | AGI price change 252 trading days after the dip date | Highest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price | Calendar days to that highest price | Lowest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | -23.2% | -1.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2026-05-22 | -20.9% | 10.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2021-02-19 | -22.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 25.5% | 103 | -10.2% |
| 2020-03-12 | -25.2% | -24.0% | 68.0% | 139.4% | 138 | -19.3% |
| 2019-10-14 | -24.1% | 2.0% | 72.0% | 116.4% | 288 | -27.0% |
| 2018-11-09 | -22.0% | -4.0% | 49.0% | 113.6% | 269 | -17.3% |
| 2018-08-15 | -23.1% | 4.0% | 58.0% | 72.7% | 355 | -33.1% |
| 2018-02-09 | -20.8% | -2.0% | -14.0% | 16.1% | 119 | -42.1% |
| 2017-05-04 | -24.4% | 2.0% | -13.0% | 37.8% | 126 | -20.2% |
| 2017-03-07 | -21.6% | 5.0% | -24.0% | 29.0% | 36 | -25.4% |
| 2016-11-11 | -22.6% | 0.0% | -2.0% | 38.2% | 89 | -4.6% |
| 2016-08-24 | -24.2% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 17.2% | 62 | -19.5% |
| 2016-01-19 | -27.8% | -8.0% | 249.0% | 331.0% | 174 | -2.9% |
| 2015-11-13 | -20.3% | 4.0% | 110.0% | 238.3% | 241 | -23.8% |
| 2015-06-24 | -20.9% | 1.0% | 31.0% | 40.4% | 357 | -59.4% |
| 2015-01-26 | -22.3% | 2.0% | -49.0% | 28.3% | 107 | -59.3% |
| 2014-09-24 | -20.2% | 4.0% | -47.0% | 11.2% | 21 | -62.1% |
| 2014-01-23 | -20.8% | 1.0% | -35.0% | 17.2% | 49 | -35.1% |
| 2013-12-02 | -21.9% | 4.0% | -36.0% | 10.3% | 42 | -40.6% |
| 2013-06-24 | -26.4% | -3.0% | -9.0% | 58.0% | 87 | -23.3% |
| 2013-04-15 | -23.9% | 2.0% | -9.0% | 64.3% | 157 | -13.0% |
| 2013-01-14 | -21.1% | 4.0% | -18.0% | 12.8% | 248 | -32.1% |
| 2012-03-14 | -20.4% | 7.0% | -13.0% | 24.4% | 204 | -18.4% |
| 2011-09-28 | -24.8% | -3.0% | 36.0% | 46.2% | 125 | -0.555% |
| 2011-04-13 | -21.0% | 1.0% | 28.0% | 44.8% | 293 | -3.2% |
| 2011-01-19 | -20.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 20.6% | 232 | -17.2% |
| Median of 24 complete windows | – | – | 0.5% | 38.0% | 132 | -21.8% |
Alamos Gold’s Twelve-Month Margin Is At A Ten-Year High
Alamos Gold kept 57.3% of its revenue as operating income over the twelve months to September 30. That marks an increase from 43.8% a year earlier and represents the company’s highest level at any quarter end since late 2016. Revenue for those twelve months reached $2.28 billion, up 41.5% from the prior year. Growth slowed in the latest period, however: third-quarter revenue rose 10.4% from a year earlier, following 35.6% growth in the second quarter.
The company also holds more cash than debt. Alamos Gold reported $642 million of cash and short-term investments at September 30, against $227 million of debt. Free cash flow fell to $180 million over the twelve months, from $227 million a year earlier, while the company spent heavily on expanding its mines. The stock trades at 12.0 times its operating cash flow, against 15.1 for the S&P 500.
Island Gold’s Shaft Expansion Is Running Late
The Island Gold District produced a record 68,700 of Alamos Gold’s 119,000 ounces in the third quarter, but its expansion is behind schedule. Management said on the October 29 call that commissioning of the new shaft there had slipped by about a quarter, to mid-2027. Management also expects the shaft expansion to cost 5% more than its $835 million budget.
Underground mining at Island Gold averaged a record 1,790 tons per day in the third quarter. Management said rates will still rise in the first half of 2027, but will fall short of its earlier plan by around 400 tons per day. Management still aims to nearly double production, to about one million ounces a year by 2030.
Buying the stock now asks you to believe that a business with its widest operating margin in ten years and more cash than debt will turn this fall into one of the half that paid off. Island Gold’s underground mining rate in the fourth-quarter report is the first measure to watch.
Now You Know Alamos Gold. Here Is A Better Way To Invest
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