ADT Stock Falls -19% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Weak Guidance
ADT (ADT) – a provider of fire detection, suppression, and smart security systems. – hit a 7-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -19%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $1.3 Bil over the last 7 days and currently stands at $5.3 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 19.1% compared to -0.7% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Q4 2025 Earnings Report & Disappointing 2026 Guidance
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- Pay Less, Gain More: MU, NVDA Top Monolithic Power Systems Stock
- Stronger Bet Than Cadence Design Systems Stock: APP Delivers More
- Pay Less, Gain More: CP Tops CSX Stock
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $5.1 billion missed the $5.3 billion consensus
- 2026 EPS guidance of $0.89 was below the $0.90 analyst consensus
- Impact: Significant stock price decline on the day of the announcement, Negative sentiment from analysts and investors
[2] Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions
- Barclays downgraded ADT to ‘Underweight’ and lowered its price target to $7.00
- Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $7.00
- Impact: Increased selling pressure on the stock, Reinforced negative market sentiment
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are several things to fear in ADT stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its Low valuation, this makes the stock look Risky (For details, see Buy or Sell ADT).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -19% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for ADT stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | ADT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.3% | 0.8% |
| 7D (Current Streak) | -19.5% | -1.6% |
| 1M (21D) | -16.8% | -0.0% |
| 3M (63D) | -19.5% | -0.9% |
| YTD 2026 | -19.1% | -0.7% |
| 2025 | 20.0% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 4.5% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -23.1% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: ADT Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 14 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 99 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 6 | 53 |
| 4D | 3 | 7 |
| 5D | 2 | 16 |
| 6D | 3 | 16 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 7 |
| Total >=3 D | 14 | 99 |
Key Financials for ADT (ADT)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $4.9 Bil | $5.1 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.2 Bil | $1.3 Bil |
| Net Income | $501.1 Mil | $596.0 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ3 | 2025 FQ4 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.3 Bil | $1.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $315.1 Mil | $332.6 Mil |
| Net Income | $145.1 Mil | $145.4 Mil |
The losing streak ADT stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.