Would You Still Hold Automatic Data Processing Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) stock is down 12.6% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around slowing employment and PEO growth, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Automatic Data Processing stands today.
- Size: Automatic Data Processing is a $87 Bil company with $21 Bil in revenue currently trading at $214.97.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 6.6% and operating margin of 26.3%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.05 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.03
- Valuation: Automatic Data Processing stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 20.5 and P/EBIT multiple of 14.6
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 61.9% within a year. See ADP Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell ADP Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is ADP stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose ADP stock falls another 20-30% to $150 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
- Strong Cash Yield: Is Automatic Data Processing Stock A Buy?
- Automatic Data Processing Stock Pulls Back to Support – Smart Entry?
- Automatic Data Processing Stock Capital Return Hits $28 Bil
- Automatic Data Processing Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap?
- Ten-Year Tally: Automatic Data Processing Stock Delivers $28 Bil Gain
- Paycom Software vs Automatic Data Processing: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today?
2022 Inflation Shock
- ADP stock fell 22.6% from a high of $269.90 on 2 December 2022 to $208.99 on 31 May 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 August 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $326.81 on 8 June 2025 , and currently trades at $214.97
| ADP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 453 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- ADP stock fell 39.8% from a high of $181.25 on 14 February 2020 to $109.07 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 9 March 2021
| ADP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -39.8% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 351 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- ADP stock fell 19.6% from a high of $151.77 on 2 October 2018 to $121.95 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 22 February 2019
| ADP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -19.6% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 60 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- ADP stock fell 38.1% from a high of $44.05 on 4 June 2007 to $27.28 on 27 October 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 3 March 2011
| ADP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -38.1% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 857 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about ADP stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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