Adobe Stock: Join the Rally at a 41% Discount
Adobe (ADBE) stock might be a good buy now. Why? Because you get high margins – reflective of pricing power and cash generation capacity – for a discounted price. Companies like this generate consistent, predictable profits and cash flows, which reduce risk and allow capital to be reinvested. Market tends to reward that.
What Is Happening With ADBE
ADBE may be down -26% so far this year but the silver lining is that it is now 41% cheaper based on its P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio compared to 1 year ago.
The stock may not reflect it yet, but here is what’s going well for the company: Adobe’s recent pricing updates for Creative Cloud, including a 17-18% increase for its Pro tier in North America, are driving higher recurring revenue. This is underpinned by robust demand for AI-powered innovations like Firefly, which has seen over 24 billion generated assets. Digital Media Annualized Recurring Revenue surpassed $18.59 billion, reflecting strong customer adoption of new features. Remaining Performance Obligations of $20.44 billion also show significant future cash generation. Adobe recently boosted its FY25 revenue outlook, signaling confidence in ongoing subscription growth from AI integration.
ADBE Has Strong Fundamentals
- Recent Profitability: Nearly 42.2% operating cash flow margin and 36.2% operating margin LTM.
- Long-Term Profitability: About 39.0% operating cash flow margin and 35.4% operating margin last 3 year average.
- Revenue Growth: Adobe saw growth of 10.7% LTM and 10.5% last 3 year average, but this is not a growth story
- Available At Discount: At P/S multiple of 6.0, ADBE stock is available at a 41% discount vs 1 year ago.
Below is a quick comparison of ADBE fundamentals with S&P medians.
| ADBE | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology | – |
| Industry | Application Software | – |
| PS Ratio | 6.0 | 3.2 |
| PE Ratio | 20.1 | 23.4 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 10.7% | 6.1% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 10.5% | 5.4% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 36.2% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 35.4% | 18.2% |
| LTM* Op Cash Flow Margin | 42.2% | 20.5% |
| 3Y Average Op Cash Flow Margin | 39.0% | 20.1% |
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| DE Ratio | 4.7% | 20.9% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
But What Is The Risk Involved?
While ADBE stock may be a compelling investment opportunity, it’s always helpful to be aware of a stock’s history of drawdown. ADBE fell about 72% in the Dot-Com crash, 67% in the Global Financial Crisis, and 60% during the inflation shock in 2022. Even the less severe dips in 2018 and the Covid selloff came close to 25%. This shows that no matter how strong a company looks, it can still take major hits in tough markets. But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read ADBE Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
If you want more details, read Buy or Sell ADBE Stock.
Stocks Like ADBE
Not ready to act on ADBE? Consider these alternatives:
We chose these stocks using the following criteria:
- Greater than $10 Bil in market cap
- High CFO (cash flow from operations) margins or operating margins
- Meaningfully declined in valuation over the past 1 year
A portfolio of stocks with the criteria above would have performed has follows since 12/31/2016:
- Average 12-month forward returns of nearly 19%
- 12-month win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of about 72%
Portfolios Over Individual Stock Picks
Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.