How Will Airbnb Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $84 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.5 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Airbnb’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 4.3%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -7.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/12/2026 | 4.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 4.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | -8.0% | -4.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | 14.4% | 3.6% | -10.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -8.7% | -8.7% | -6.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | -13.4% | -10.4% | -11.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -6.9% | -7.7% | -7.1% |
| 2/13/2024 | -1.7% | -1.0% | 10.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | -3.3% | -1.5% | 13.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | -0.5% | -3.5% | -5.8% |
| 5/9/2023 | -10.9% | -17.0% | -9.1% |
| 2/14/2023 | 13.4% | 5.2% | -0.7% |
| 11/1/2022 | -13.4% | -9.3% | -7.1% |
| 8/2/2022 | -1.1% | -1.6% | -2.8% |
| 5/3/2022 | 7.7% | -19.9% | -16.4% |
| 2/15/2022 | 3.6% | -16.7% | -12.5% |
| 11/4/2021 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| 8/12/2021 | 1.1% | -5.6% | 6.1% |
| 5/13/2021 | 4.0% | 0.3% | 9.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 3.6% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -7.7% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.4% | 10.3% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -19.9% | -16.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -46.1% | -61.9% | -28.8% |
| 3Y History | -48.3% | -48.2% | -23.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Airbnb stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Airbnb. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB Earnings Dates | ABNB | HLT | H |
| 2/12/2026 | 4.6% | -0.9% | N/A* |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.3% | -3.6% | N/A* |
| 8/6/2025 | -8.0% | -2.2% | N/A* |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.0% | 3.4% | N/A* |
| 2/13/2025 | 14.4% | -0.3% | N/A* |
| 11/7/2024 | -8.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | -6.9% | -2.1% | N/A* |
| 2/13/2024 | -1.7% | -3.0% | N/A* |
| 11/1/2023 | -3.3% | 0.3% | N/A* |
| 8/3/2023 | -0.5% | 0.3% | N/A* |
| 5/9/2023 | -10.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| 2/14/2023 | 13.4% | 0.4% | N/A* |
| 11/1/2022 | -13.4% | 2.9% | N/A* |
| 11/4/2021 | 13.0% | 0.1% | 4.8% |
| 8/12/2021 | 1.1% | -8.2% | -4.4% |
| CORRELATION | 38.6% | 72.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ABNB
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