How Will AbbVie Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) is set to report its earnings on Friday, October 31, 2025. The company has $398 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $58 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $14 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.8 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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AbbVie’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 6 positive and 14 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 30% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 17% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 6 positive returns = 1.6%, and median of the 14 negative returns = -1.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/3/2025 | -1.6% | -0.7% | |
| 7/3/2025 | -0.9% | 1.7% | 5.1% |
| 4/3/2025 | -7.3% | -13.6% | -1.9% |
| 1/6/2025 | -0.3% | -2.5% | 8.2% |
| 10/3/2024 | -0.6% | -0.6% | 5.0% |
| 7/3/2024 | 2.1% | 3.7% | 16.6% |
| 4/3/2024 | -5.3% | -4.7% | -8.5% |
| 1/5/2024 | -0.4% | 1.1% | 7.9% |
| 10/4/2023 | -0.2% | 1.1% | -2.0% |
| 7/6/2023 | -1.3% | -1.6% | 8.8% |
| 4/5/2023 | 0.5% | 2.1% | -7.1% |
| 1/6/2023 | -2.9% | -6.9% | -12.0% |
| 10/5/2022 | -2.1% | -2.3% | 1.8% |
| 7/6/2022 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -8.1% |
| 4/21/2022 | -2.2% | -1.4% | -4.7% |
| 2/2/2022 | 1.2% | 4.8% | 9.8% |
| 10/29/2021 | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% |
| 7/30/2021 | -2.2% | -3.2% | 0.6% |
| 4/30/2021 | 0.6% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| 2/3/2021 | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 2.1% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -2.3% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 4.6% | 6.7% | 16.6% |
| Max Negative | -7.3% | -13.6% | -12.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 50.5% | 15.9% | -13.1% |
| 3Y History | 67.2% | 31.6% | -13.8% |
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