Forecast Of The Day: American Airlines Passenger Yield

+15.41%
Upside
14.12
Market
16.30
Trefis
AAL: American Airlines logo
AAL
American Airlines

What?

American Airlines (NYSE:AAL) passenger yield – which refers to the average revenue received per mile per revenue paying passenger – dropped from around $0.174 in 2019 to about $0.158 in 2020. Trefis expects the metric to rise to about $0.168 in 2021 and remain roughly flat in 2022.

Why?

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While the metric declined in 2020, due to the impact of Covid-19, the reopening of the economy and easing of travel restrictions should help to bolster demand for air travel, helping yields.

So What?

We think the recovery is largely priced into AAL stock. We value AAL at about $16 per share, roughly in line with the current market price.

See Our Complete Analysis For American Airlines

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Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 AAL Return -16% 8% -64%
 S&P 500 Return 1% 26% 111%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% 45% 288%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/16/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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