Roche reported a 7% increase in full-year 2025 revenue to 61.5 billion CHF at constant exchange rates, driven by a 9% surge in Pharmaceutical sales. While Q4 revenue of 15.65 billion CHF slightly beat estimates, the core EPS of 8.37 missed the 10.35 CHF forecast by 19% due to operational challenges and flat R&D spending. Strong demand for growth drivers like Vabysmo and Phesgo offset 700 million CHF in biosimilar erosion, while the Diagnostics division faced 2% growth headwinds from pricing reforms in China.
Note: Roche Holdings's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.
Roche has designated its dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, CT-388, as a fast-track asset following positive Phase 2 results showing 22.5% weight loss over 48 weeks. The company expects to initiate the Phase 3 Enith trial program in Q1 2026, positioning itself to compete in the high-growth obesity market alongside established leaders. This pivot into metabolic health is supported by the 5.3 billion dollar partnership with Zealand Pharma for the amylin analog petrelintide.
Below are key drivers of Roche Holdings's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:
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Roche Holdings operates a dual-pillar business model focused on Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics, leveraging integrated data and personalized healthcare to maintain global leadership in oncology, immunology, and infectious diseases.
The Pharmaceutical division remains the primary engine of value, contributing over 75% of group revenue and the majority of operating profits.
Roche maintains a massive installed base in breast cancer treatment, where it is successfully transitioning patients from intravenous Perjeta and Herceptin to the subcutaneous combination Phesgo, protecting its market share from biosimilar competition.
Vabysmo has rapidly become a multi-billion dollar asset by offering longer dosing intervals for patients with wet AMD and DME, allowing Roche to reclaim market leadership in the eye-care segment from competitors like Regeneron.
The shift toward metabolic health through the acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics and the acceleration of CT-388 into Phase 3 reflects a major strategic move to capture a share of the 100 billion dollar obesity market by the end of the decade.
Faced with a core EPS miss in late 2025, management is prioritizing efficiency gains and AI-driven R&D optimization, aiming for high-single-digit core EPS growth in 2026 despite flat overall R&D expenditures.
Roche is launching next-generation sequencing technologies and expanding its Near Patient Care platforms to offset pricing reforms in China and the post-pandemic decline in traditional testing volumes.
