Dish Network (DISH) Last Update 4/1/22
Related: CMCSA T VZ
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Dish Network
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Satellite TV
61.1%
$29.13
Wireless
38.9%
$18.57
Net Debt
34.7% $16.55
TOTAL
100%
$47.70
$37.45
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$22.18
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
loading revenue data...
loading ebitda data...
loading cash flow data...

RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Dish Network Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Satellite TV constitutes 61% of the Trefis price estimate for Dish Network's stock.
  2. Wireless constitute 39% of the Trefis price estimate for Dish Network's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

  1. Dish's Q4 2021 Earnings

Dish Network posted a mixed set of Q4 2021 results, with earnings coming ahead of estimates and revenue falling short. While sales declined by about -2.4% year-over-year to $4.45 billion, EPS came in at around $0.87. The company had 10.71 million pay-TV subscribers at the end of the quarter, including 8.22 million Dish TV subscribers and 2.49 million Sling TV subscribers.

  1. Wireless Acquisitions

Dish Network completed the acquisition of Boost Mobile in July 2020 while that of Ting Mobile was completed in August 2020. Dish also acquired Republic Wireless in 2021. The company had close to 9 million wireless subscribers at the end of 2021.

  1. Dish Set To Enter 5G Wireless Market

Dish Networks finally announced plans for entering the U.S. wireless market. In late July 2020, the company reached a deal with Sprint and T-Mobile (which are set to merge) to acquire Sprint’s prepaid businesses along with a portion of Sprint’s 800 MHz spectrum. The company will also gain full access to the merged entity's (New T-Mobile) wireless network for seven years, as it builds out its own wireless infrastructure. The company will leverage this deal, as well as its deep portfolio of wireless spectrum, to become the 4th U.S. wireless carrier. The company expects to reach 70% of the US population with 5G by the year 2023.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Dish Network's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Dish Network:

Satellite TV

  • Fee per Pay TV Subscriber: We estimate this figure will increase from about $100 in 2021 to about $130 by the end of our forecast period. However, there could be an upside of around 5% to our price estimate if this fee were to rise to more than $140 instead.
  • Dish Network Gross Profit Margin: We estimate that Dish Network's Pay TV gross margins will go down almost 40% in 2020 to below 38% by the end of our forecast period. There could be an upside of more than 5% to our price estimate if Dish can get back to 42% gross margin levels seen in the late 2000s, by continuing to focus on a quality subscriber base and increasing its prices.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Dish Network at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Dish Network is the fourth-largest pay-TV provider in the U.S. The pay TV market includes cable providers such as Comcast, satellite providers such as DirecTV and telecom providers such as AT&T and Verizon, that offer fiber optic TV services. About 70% of TV households in the US subscribe to Pay TV services. Dish is the second-largest satellite TV provider in the U.S. after DirecTV. Dish makes money by charging digital TV subscription fees to customers, selling digital TV boxes, selling premium services like HD and DVR, and by charging advertisers to advertise on some of the channels it carries.

Dish is also an emerging wireless player. Dish invested over $20 billion to acquire wireless spectrum licenses including AWS-4, AWS-3 and licences in the 600 Mhz bands. The company also entered the retail wireless market in 2020, via its acquisition of Boost Mobile, which operates as a mobile virtual network operator. Dish is also building out its own 5G network, as it needs to meet the FCC guidelines of reaching 70% of the U.S. population with its spectrum.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The majority of Dish's value still comes from its satellite TV service, per our estimates. Although the company offers customers additional services like HD and DVR service, the value contribution of these services to Dish's overall value remains limited due to the lower fees charged for these services, and the limited number of Dish customers that opt-in for these additions.

Dish is poised to grow in the wireless market

Dish has made significant investments in spectrum over the past few years and is now one of the largest holders of wireless spectrum in the United States. The company has spent a combined sum of over $20 billion in acquiring its spectrum and is in the process of building out a 5G network, with plans to invest over $10 billion in the next few years. While Dish's 5G network will serve its retail users, the enterprise space is likely to be a key market. Dish is focusing on building a cloud native network, that could allow it to provide virtually partitioned slices of its network that are designed to the exact needs of industrial users.

High Fees for Satellite Service

The Fee per Satellite TV Subscriber for Dish's core offering was about $110 per month in 2020.

Number of subscribers set to declline

At the end of 2020, Dish had about 15.7% market share in the US Pay TV market, representing around 11.3 million subscribers. We expect Dish's market share to increase slightly throughout our forecast period. However, as many households are cutting chords, the viewers using cable service will decline in the coming years.

KEY TRENDS

Dish's strategy of acquiring wireless spectrum, bundling of services (TV, internet, phone), and increased competition from telcos (AT&T, Verizon) are the primary trends impacting Dish.

Dish's strategy of amassing spectrum

There is a looming spectrum crunch in the U.S. wireless industry, given the increasing data needs of mobile customers. Realizing this spectrum crunch and the associated opportunity, Dish Network has been strategically amassing spectrum. The company currently has more than 80 MHz of spectrum holdings, including 40 MHz of AWS-4 spectrum, 10 MHz of H Block PCS spectrum, 20 MHz of AWS-3 spectrum, and 24 Mhz of the 600 Mhz spectrum.

The AWS spectrum supports LTE and can be used by wireless phones and other mobile devices for voice, messaging, and data services. Most smartphones are AWS-enabled and can communicate using this spectrum. The H Block spectrum band is adjacent to and can be paired with Dish's AWS-4 licenses, which is highly desirable. Another desirable aspect is that the AWS-4 and H Block spectrum cover every territory in the United States. Dish can now move forward with several options, such as launching its own nationwide wireless network, partnering with an existing wireless carrier, or leasing/selling the spectrum.

Competition rather than Cooperation with Telcos (e.g. AT&T and Verizon)

Before AT&T's U-verse and Verizon's FiOS fiber optic TV services were launched, telcos and satellite providers would team up to provide bundled TV, Internet, and phone services to compete with triple-play offerings from cable operators like Comcast and Time Warner Cable. However, telcos now compete with satellite providers in certain areas, and the level of competition will continue to increase as telcos continue to roll out their TV services.

Alternative platform threat

Dish Network, in particular, and pay-TV service providers, in general, face a threat from emerging online video platforms such as Netflix and Hulu. Although these platforms mostly provide content that is not running live on TV, they are now slowly penetrating the pay-TV provider's core turf. Netflix's successful entry into original programming is an example.

Content owners demanding more money

Dish Network has engaged in conflicts with content owners in the past over the issue of its demand for higher carriage fees. We believe Dish Network's periodic price rise is a response to cope with such demands, so that channel interruption does not occur. Dish blocked several channels in 2017 amid carriage disputes.