VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Oncology Drugs constitute 51% of the Trefis price estimate for Bristol Myers Squibb's stock.
2. Cardiovascular Drugs constitute 22% of the Trefis price estimate for Bristol Myers Squibb's stock.
3. All Other Drugs constitute 15% of the Trefis price estimate for Bristol Myers Squibb's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025

Bristol Myers Squibb reported Q4 2025 revenue of $12.5 billion, representing a 1% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS for the quarter was $1.26, a 25% decrease compared to the prior year, primarily due to a $(0.60) per share impact from acquired in-process R&D (IPRD) charges and licensing income. For the full year 2025, revenue totaled $48.2 billion, which was relatively flat compared to 2024. The Growth Portfolio, led by Reblozyl (+22%), Camzyos (+59%), and Breyanzi (+49%), surged 17% in 2025 to $26.4 billion, now accounting for 55% of total company revenue. This expansion helped offset a 15% decline in the Legacy Portfolio, where Revlimid sales plummeted following the expiration of volume limits in January 2026.

Note: Bristol Myers Squibb's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.

Breakthrough in Multiple Myeloma Successor Trials

In March 2026, Bristol Myers Squibb announced that its Phase 3 trial for mezigdomide, a targeted protein degrader (CELMoD), met its primary endpoint of progression-free survival in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. This follows similar success for iberdomide, which is currently under FDA review with a decision date set for August 2026. These next-generation oral therapies are strategically critical for BMY as they are designed to replace the revenue streams of aging blockbusters Revlimid and Pomalyst. Management expects these CELMoDs, alongside the GPRC5D-targeted CAR T zola-cel (BMS-986393), to define the company's long-term dominance in hematology through 2030.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Bristol Myers Squibb's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Growth Portfolio and Pipeline

• Next-Generation Pipeline Readouts: BMY enters a data-rich period in late 2026 with pivotal readouts for milvexian (Factor XIa inhibitor) and admilparant (LPA1 antagonist for IPF). Success in these trials is essential to reaching BMY's $10 billion "New Product" revenue target. Current market sentiment remains cautious following the earlier cessation of the milvexian ACS trial, leaving significant upside if the stroke prevention data proves superior to current standards.


• Cobenfy Launch Trajectory: As the first novel mechanism for schizophrenia in decades, Cobenfy (KarXT) reported early launch revenue of $51 million in Q4 2025. Upside exists if adoption in the U.S. continues at the current accelerated pace, while downside risk remains tied to the complexities of market access and payer coverage for new neuroscience therapies.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Bristol Myers Squibb at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Bristol Myers Squibb is a global biopharmaceutical leader focused on oncology, hematology, immunology, and cardiovascular disease. The company's business model is currently in a high-stakes transition phase, as it aggressively reinvests cash flows from its legacy blockbuster Eliquis into a diversified "Growth Portfolio" of over 10 high-margin assets. This strategy relies on rapid clinical execution in immunology and targeted protein degradation to mitigate a projected $10 billion revenue gap caused by patent expirations throughout the late 2020s.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Oncology and Hematology segment remains the primary value driver, contributing the majority of the company's operating profit through established franchises and high-growth cell therapies.

Dominant Immuno-Oncology Franchise

The combination of Opdivo and Yervoy maintains a massive installed base in first-line lung cancer and melanoma. Despite looming patent cliffs for Opdivo in 2028, the franchise remains a cash cow, with Q4 2025 combined revenue exceeding $3.5 billion.

Leadership in Cell Therapy and Hematology

BMY holds a significant competitive advantage in the multiple myeloma space with its end-to-end portfolio. The rapid scaling of Breyanzi and the upcoming commercialization of the CELMoD platform (iberdomide and mezigdomide) create a high-moat ecosystem that is difficult for competitors to displace.

Cardiovascular Market Concentration

Eliquis continues to be the world's leading oral anticoagulant, growing 8% in Q4 2025 to $3.5 billion. Its massive market share provides BMY with a unique scale advantage in cardiovascular care as it develops milvexian to secure the next decade of market leadership.

KEY TRENDS

Targeted Protein Degradation Platform

The industry is shifting from traditional protein inhibition to protein degradation (CELMoDs). BMY is positioned as the leader in this space, leveraging technology acquired from Celgene to develop oral "tagging" therapies that can overcome resistance where previous drugs failed.

Strategic Productivity and AI Scale-up

BMY is implementing a $2.0 billion productivity initiative intended to streamline operations by the end of 2027. The strategy involves scaling AI across R&D and commercial functions to lower OpEx and accelerate the "time-to-market" for the 2026-2027 clinical wave.

Capital Allocation Toward Debt Reduction

Management has prioritized strengthening the balance sheet following a period of intense M&A. Having paid down $10 billion in debt ahead of schedule by early 2026, BMY is pivoting toward a balanced approach of dividend growth and bolt-on acquisitions to bolster the late-stage pipeline.