What’s Next For United States Steel Stock After A Mixed Q4?
United States Steel stock (NYSE:X) recently released its Q4 results, with revenues and earnings declining compared to the previous year. Revenue for the quarter fell about 15% year-over-year to $3.51 billion. The company reported a net loss of $89 million for Q4 2024, slightly worse than the $80 million loss in the same period last year. The company’s performance reflected ongoing industry challenges such as declining steel prices and demand. These factors resulted in the stock dropping almost 10% post results, but soon recovered with President Donald Trump imposing a 25% flat tariff on all steel and aluminum imports without any exceptions.
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How Did United States Steel Fare In Q4?
United States Steel Corporation reported a Q4 net loss of $89 million, or $0.39 per diluted share. This compares to fourth quarter 2023 net loss of $80 million, or $0.36 per diluted share. Steel shipments declined by approximately 13% to 3.3 million tons due to lower pricing and demand across all segments. The Flat-Rolled segment showed a profit increase, while the Mini Mill, U.S. Steel Europe, and Tubular segments reported weaker performance compared to the previous year. Despite missing revenue and profit targets from a year ago, U.S. Steel’s results were better than expected in some areas, suggesting resilience amid challenging market conditions.
What Does This Mean For X Stock?
The increase in X stock over the last 4-year period has been far from consistent, with annual returns being considerably more volatile than the S&P 500. Returns for the stock were 42% in 2021, 6% in 2022, 96% in 2023, and -30% in 2024. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and multiple wars, could X face a similar situation as it did in 2024 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months – or will it see a strong jump? We think X stock is fairly priced now.
The weak Q4 results led to the stock dropping almost 10% post results, but recovered some of the losses thereafter. United States Steel expects a challenging first quarter of 2025, forecasting adjusted EBITDA between $100 million and $150 million. This outlook reflects seasonal logistics constraints that are expected to impact the North American Flat-Rolled segment, though some of these pressures may be offset by improving performance in the Mini Mill segment, particularly with the ramp-up of Big River Steel 2 operations. Additionally, Pres. Trump has consistently opposed the $14.9 billion takeover of the company by Japan’s Nippon Steel, echoing his “America First” stance and arguing that U.S. Steel should remain domestically owned. The future for United States Steel stock remains uncertain, influenced by a mix of operational challenges, market dynamics, and external political factors. For now, Trefis’ United States Steel valuation is around $40 per share, implying about 4% gains.
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