Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (5/3/2026): $24.26 | Market Cap: $11.6 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (5/3/2026): $24.26Market Cap: $11.6 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -53% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.7% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.3 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -113%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -53% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.7% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.3 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -113%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Weak Q1 2026 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Guidance.
The Trade Desk provided a Q1 2026 revenue guidance of at least $678 million, signaling an approximate 10% year-over-year growth, a notable deceleration from the 14% year-over-year revenue increase reported in Q4 2025. Furthermore, the company projected a decrease in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 to about $195 million, down from $208 million in Q1 2025, which indicated potential pressure on profitability and pricing power.
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Advertising Budget Constraints.
Global macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, including an "oil shock" in late February 2026, contributed to reduced advertising spending. This led marketers to cut budgets, particularly impacting cyclical sectors like Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) and automotive, a factor directly cited by The Trade Desk's management for challenges in forecasting. This broader market caution constrained the outlook for the ad-tech industry.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.1% change in TTD stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.33 | 24.24 | -20.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,791 | 2,896 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.7% | 15.3% | -2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.7 | 26.2 | -22.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 488 | 480 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -20.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 21.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -2.5% | 23.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -51.8% change in TTD stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -55.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.28 | 24.24 | -51.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,679 | 2,896 | 8.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 15.3% | -1.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 59.1 | 26.2 | -55.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 491 | 480 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -51.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -51.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 25.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 2.3% | 30.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.8% change in TTD stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.63 | 24.24 | -54.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,445 | 2,896 | 18.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.1% | 15.3% | -4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 67.4 | 26.2 | -61.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 494 | 480 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -54.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -54.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 20.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 23.8% | 22.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -62.3% change in TTD stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.34 | 24.24 | -62.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,578 | 2,896 | 83.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 15.3% | 352.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 589.6 | 26.2 | -95.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 489 | 480 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -62.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -62.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 40.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 101.4% | 40.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TTD Return | 14% | -51% | 61% | 63% | -68% | -38% | -71% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -46% | 81% | 67% | 11% | 9% | 98% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TTD Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 33% | 75% | 68% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TTD Max Drawdown | -39% | -56% | -6% | -11% | -69% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -52% | -5% | -4% | -25% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Trade Desk (TTD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- It's like Booking.com or Expedia, but for advertisers to buy and optimize digital ad space.
- Salesforce for digital advertising campaigns.
- Think of it as Google Ads or Facebook Ads, but for buying and optimizing ads across the entire open internet.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Cloud-Based Advertising Platform: A self-service platform enabling buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels.
- Data and Value-Added Services: Supplementary services that provide insights and additional tools to enhance advertising campaign performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) primarily sells its cloud-based advertising platform and services to other companies, specifically **advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers**. These entities use TTD's platform to manage digital advertising campaigns on behalf of their advertiser clients. While Trade Desk serves thousands of individual advertising agencies globally, many of these agencies are subsidiaries of larger, publicly traded advertising holding companies. These holding companies represent a significant portion of the global advertising spend and therefore, their networks of agencies constitute a major part of Trade Desk's customer base. The major customer companies (or the parent companies of the agencies that are direct customers) include:- WPP plc (Symbol: WPP)
- Omnicom Group Inc. (Symbol: OMC)
- Publicis Groupe S.A. (Symbol: PUBGY - ADR; PUB.PA - Euronext Paris)
- Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (Symbol: IPG)
- Dentsu Group Inc. (Symbol: DNTUY - ADR; 9697.T - TSE)
- Accenture Song (a division of Accenture plc, Symbol: ACN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) relies on several major suppliers to operate its demand-side platform and facilitate digital advertising campaigns. These include cloud infrastructure providers and supply-side platforms (SSPs) that provide access to ad inventory.
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Magnite (MGNI)
- PubMatic (PUBM)
- Google (GOOGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Jeff Green
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder
Jeff Green is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of The Trade Desk, which he founded in 2009. Prior to The Trade Desk, he co-founded AdECN, an online advertising exchange, in 2004. AdECN was acquired by Microsoft in 2007, after which Green spent two years leading the Microsoft Online Services Division.
Laura Schenkein
Chief Financial Officer
Laura Schenkein is the Chief Financial Officer at The Trade Desk, Inc. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing the company's financial operations, including financial planning, risk management, record-keeping, and financial reporting. She brings extensive experience in finance and leadership, having held prominent roles in both public and private companies across the technology sector.
Dave Pickles
Chief Technology Officer and Founder
Dave Pickles is the co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of The Trade Desk, overseeing all engineering, product innovation, and data science. He co-founded the company with Jeff Green in 2009. Earlier in his career, he was a senior engineer at the internet telephony startup CallWave, Inc. He later joined AdECN (which was acquired by Microsoft), where he and his team built the federated exchange for real-time bidding.
Samantha Jacobson
Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President
Samantha Jacobson serves as Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, managing strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives. She joined The Trade Desk after six years at Oracle, where she managed the global business development and strategy team. Before Oracle, Jacobson was at Datalogix, where she developed partnerships with major industry players such as Twitter, Pinterest, Microsoft, Google, and Apple. She also held various business development, partner management, and strategy positions at companies including eBay and American Express prior to Datalogix.
Ian Colley
Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President
Ian Colley is the Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, leading global communications, editorial content, content marketing, and social media. Before joining The Trade Desk, Colley spent over 20 years at IBM, where he led communications for various divisions, including IBM Cloud, IBM Finance, IBM Global Services, and IBM Europe.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for The Trade Desk (TTD) are primarily concentrated in the highly dynamic and competitive digital advertising technology sector.
- Intense Competition from "Walled Gardens" and Consolidation of Ad Spend: The Trade Desk operates as an independent demand-side platform (DSP) in an industry facing significant competition from large, integrated technology companies often referred to as "walled gardens," such as Google, Meta (Facebook), and Amazon. These companies control vast amounts of first-party data and have proprietary advertising platforms, incentivizing advertisers to keep their spending within these ecosystems. This dynamic poses a continuous challenge to independent platforms like The Trade Desk in terms of market share, access to inventory, and overall growth prospects. For instance, Amazon's aggressive expansion in advertising, particularly in the Connected TV (CTV) market, and its partnerships with streaming platforms like Netflix, have intensified competitive pressures for TTD.
- Evolving Data Privacy Regulations and Cookie Deprecation: The Trade Desk's core business of enabling data-driven digital advertising campaigns is highly dependent on the collection and utilization of user data. The ongoing shift in the digital advertising landscape, driven by stricter global data privacy regulations (like GDPR and CCPA) and the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, presents a significant risk. While The Trade Desk has invested in privacy-centric identity solutions such as Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), their effectiveness, widespread adoption, and compliance with evolving privacy laws are subject to continuous scrutiny and potential legal challenges, including class-action lawsuits alleging privacy violations.
- Ad Fraud, Brand Safety, and Lack of Transparency in the Programmatic Supply Chain: As a programmatic advertising platform, The Trade Desk is exposed to inherent industry risks related to ad fraud and brand safety. Ad fraud, which includes tactics like fake impressions, bot traffic, pixel stuffing, and ad stacking, can deplete advertiser budgets with no real engagement. Furthermore, brand safety concerns arise when automated ad placements result in advertisements appearing alongside inappropriate, offensive, or irrelevant content, potentially harming a brand's reputation. The complex and sometimes opaque nature of the programmatic advertising supply chain can also lead to a lack of transparency for advertisers regarding ad placements and associated costs, which The Trade Desk must continuously address to maintain client trust and platform integrity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolving privacy regulations and platform policies from major technology companies. This includes the impending deprecation of third-party cookies in web browsers like Google Chrome, as well as increased restrictions on app tracking and data usage from platforms like Apple (e.g., App Tracking Transparency framework). These shifts fundamentally challenge the data-driven targeting and measurement capabilities upon which The Trade Desk's self-service cloud-based advertising platform relies, potentially favoring "walled garden" ecosystems that control their own first-party data. While TTD is actively developing alternative identity solutions, the successful adoption and effectiveness of these solutions across the fragmented digital advertising landscape represent a significant, ongoing threat to its core business model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (symbol: TTD) operates within substantial addressable markets for its digital advertising platform and services. The company itself estimates its total addressable market to be approximately $1 trillion globally. Here's a breakdown of the addressable markets for its main products and services:- Global Digital Advertising Market: The global digital advertising market is projected to reach approximately $786.22 billion by 2026 and is expected to surpass $850 billion in 2026. Another estimate suggests the global online advertising market size will grow from $416.65 billion in 2026 to $1344.68 billion by 2034. The broader total addressable market for digital advertising is projected to expand from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion by 2034.
- Global Programmatic Advertising Market: The global programmatic advertising market size is estimated to be approximately $0.72 trillion (USD 720 billion) in 2026, with projections to reach $1.17 trillion by 2031. Another report indicates the global programmatic advertising market is likely to be valued at US$273.7 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach US$975.1 billion by 2033. Global programmatic ad spend is also forecast to surpass US$200 billion in 2026.
- Connected TV (CTV) Advertising Market: Global CTV ad spending is projected to surpass $45 billion by the end of 2026. For the U.S. specifically, CTV ad spending is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026. Another estimate for U.S. CTV advertising spending projects it will reach $32.57 billion in 2026.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Growth in Connected TV (CTV) Advertising: Connected TV remains a significant growth driver, with the company consistently reporting strong performance in this channel. The Trade Desk's platform is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of CTV, which is central to its long-term growth strategy.
- Advancements in AI-driven Innovation with the Kokai Platform: The Trade Desk's AI-powered platform, Kokai, is crucial for future performance and innovation. Nearly all clients are currently running campaigns through Kokai, and the company aims to demonstrate that its AI consistently delivers superior results in an open, multi-publisher environment. Potential partnerships, such as those reportedly explored with OpenAI for AI-driven ad inventory, further underscore the importance of AI in its growth trajectory.
- Expansion in Retail Media and Optimization of the Open Internet Supply Chain: The company is focused on expanding its retail data marketplace and simplifying measurement, user experience, and billing. The Trade Desk is also dedicated to improving the overall supply chain of the open internet, positioning itself to capture a larger share of the global advertising market. The increasing ad supply further strengthens the value proposition of independent, inventory-neutral platforms like The Trade Desk.
- Increasing Advertiser Demand and Programmatic Advertising Adoption: The Trade Desk benefits from the ongoing shift of advertisers towards data-driven programmatic and streaming-first channels. As brands increasingly rely on automated ad buying to manage campaigns and optimize spending with real-time data, The Trade Desk's robust position in programmatic advertising is expected to fuel continued revenue expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlCapital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- The Trade Desk utilized approximately $1.4 billion of cash to repurchase its Class A common stock in the year ended December 31, 2025, at an average repurchase price of $52.60.
- As of February 25, 2026, the board of directors authorized an additional $350 million for share repurchases, bringing the total amount available for future repurchases of Class A common stock to $500 million.
- Annual share buybacks amounted to $646.597 million in 2023 and $234.784 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Stock-based compensation for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, was $1.259 billion, showing a 4.47% increase year-over-year.
- Stock-based compensation was $494.7 million in 2024 and $491.6 million in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 reached $197 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
- Capital expenditures were $98.238 million in 2024 and $46.79 million in 2023, the latter being a five-year low.
- Expected capital expenditures are $187.6 million for 2026 and $196.6 million for 2027, primarily focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TTD.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04242026 | CMCSA | Comcast | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -2.9% |
| 04022026 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.0% | 7.0% | -8.9% |
| 03272026 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.4% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| 03062026 | CARG | CarGurus | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -8.3% |
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 31.6% | 31.6% | -5.7% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -57.2% | -54.2% | -61.0% |
| 03312025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.3% | -58.5% | -61.1% |
| 05312022 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.5% | 34.6% | -23.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 158.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 872.4 |
| Rev LTM | 177,054 |
| Op Inc LTM | 57,472 |
| FCF LTM | 10,322 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 19,586 |
| CFO LTM | 80,670 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 67,948 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 63.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 872.4 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.6 |
| P/EBIT | 18.4 |
| P/E | 24.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 158.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 82.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $24.24 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 11.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/21/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -73.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $23.82 | $41.59 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.8% | -41.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 66.7% | 66.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| Upside Capture | -1.04 | -26.05 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 20.5% | 20.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.88 | 0.39 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 1.09 | 1.54 |
| Up Beta | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.36 | 1.84 | 1.60 |
| Down Beta | 8.38 | 1.36 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 2.00 | 1.98 |
| Up Capture | 60% | -11% | -1% | -16% | -15% | 68% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 19 | 25 | 51 | 122 | 386 |
| Down Capture | 259% | 5% | 144% | 159% | 104% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 38 | 73 | 126 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -54.9% | 66.4% | -0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 23.9% | 13.2% | 1.36 | 22.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 20.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | -5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | 1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 9.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.1% | 42.2% | -0.33 | 18.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -20.2% | 68.1% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.9% | 20.7% | 0.39 | 53.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 9.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 33.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 30.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | 22.5% | 68.6% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.7% | 22.3% | 0.51 | 53.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 46.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 30.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 17.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/26/2026 | -7.5% | -17.0% | -31.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -5.0% | 1.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 17.5% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -10.1% | -13.8% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 678.00 Mil | -19.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 840.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 195.00 Mil | -48.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 375.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 840.00 Mil | 17.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 717.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 375.00 Mil | 35.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 277.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 30.45 | 102,828 | 3,131,113 | 59,256 | Form | |
| 2 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Family Trust | Sell | 3092026 | 30.48 | 50,000 | Form | |||
| 3 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 25.08 | 2,314,304 | 58,042,744 | 150,480,000 | Form |
| 4 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 24.97 | 1,685,696 | 42,091,829 | 92,031,829 | Form |
| 5 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 23.98 | 2,000,000 | 47,966,693 | 47,966,693 | Form |
TTD Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock is assigned a 'MARKET WEIGHT' score. While the risk/reward skew appears favorable on a pure price target basis, the primary risk is a direct, high-probability threat to over 20% of the company's revenue base. The 'Contested' nature of its core agency moat creates a highly uncertain environment. The position is a hold, pending resolution of the agency disputes, which will serve as a definitive signal on the health of the core thesis.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'TTD is a former high-growth company now navigating a period of decelerating growth (10% Q1 guidance vs. 18% in FY25), intense competition, and a strategic pivot to solidify its role as the infrastructure for the post-cookie 'open internet'. The focus is shifting from pure growth to defending its strategic position and leveraging its strong profitability (41% Adj. EBITDA Margin), which aligns with the 'Transition / Profit Pivot' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is that Google's accelerated deprecation of third-party cookies in Q2 2026 will force the open internet advertising market to adopt a new identity solution, with TTD's Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) being the leading candidate. Successful adoption would solidify TTD's platform as the essential operating system for the open internet, driving sustained market share gains in high-growth channels like Connected TV (CTV) and Retail Media.
- Google's accelerated timeline for third-party cookie deprecation to Q2 2026 creates an urgent, market-wide catalyst.
- Key partnerships with Disney, Roku, and Walmart signal broad industry support for the UID2 framework.
- TTD's FY2025 revenue growth of 18% is already outpacing the broader programmatic market's growth of 12.5%, indicating share capture.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant near-term risk is the ongoing dispute with Publicis Groupe and a potential similar conflict with Omnicom. In March 2026, Publicis reportedly advised its clients to stop using TTD's platform over fee disputes. As these two holding companies represent over 20% of TTD's gross billings, any significant reduction in spend represents a direct and material threat to revenue and market position.
- Publicis Groupe, a major client, advised its own customers to cease using The Trade Desk in March 2026 following a failed audit.
- Omnicom, another key client, has initiated its own audit in response to the Publicis dispute.
- The two holding companies combined are estimated to account for over 20% of The Trade Desk's gross billings.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| YoY Revenue Growth Rate | Stabilization above 10% and re-acceleration towards 15% | This is the primary market-rewarded metric. A failure to reverse the current deceleration trend would confirm the bear case of market share loss and cyclical pressure. |
| Gross Spend from Top 5 Agency Holding Companies | Stable to growing concentration | Directly monitors the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. Any disclosed or reported decline in spend from Publicis or Omnicom would signal the bear case is materializing. |
| CTV as a Percentage of Gross Spend | Continued growth from >40% base | This is the leading indicator for the 'Alpha Driver'. Strong growth in CTV signals that TTD is successfully capturing spend in the most important secular growth channel. |
Agency Churn vs. Post-Cookie Dominance
BULL VIEW
Agency disputes are noise. Google's accelerated cookie deprecation in Q2 2026 makes UID2 adoption inevitable, solidifying TTD as the default operating system for the open internet, driving re-acceleration.
CORE TENSION
Can future market share gains from UID2 adoption offset the immediate, structural risk of losing over 20% of billings from disputes with major agency clients like Publicis?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Q1 2026 revenue guidance of ~10% YoY growth, a sharp deceleration from FY25's 18%, confirms the near-term headwinds are winning over the long-term thesis.
BEAR VIEW
The Publicis dispute reveals TTD's moat is a mirage. Loss of a key holding company would cripple revenue, prove low switching costs, and trigger a structural de-rating.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Commentary on spend from Publicis/Omnicom and Q2 revenue guidance. Watch for guidance to be better than feared (i.e. >10% growth). |
Q2 2026 | Google Third-Party Cookie Deprecation Watch: Ad industry reports on publisher CPMs and UID2 adoption rates. Look for evidence UID2 is effectively replacing cookie-based targeting without major disruption. |
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Q3 guidance showing revenue growth re-accelerating towards 15% as UID2 adoption ramps post-cookie deprecation, offsetting prior weakness. |
Q2 2026 | Google Ad Tech Antitrust Remedy Ruling Watch: The final language of Judge Leonie Brinkema's remedy decision. A forced divestiture of Google's ad exchange would be the key headline. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Apr 10, 2026 | New 52-Week Low Reached Details: Amidst ongoing concerns about agency disputes and slowing growth, the stock price hit a new 52-week low, reflecting deep investor pessimism and uncertainty. | Fell notably by -2.5% $20.61 -> $20.09 |
Nov 7, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: The stock sold off following Q3 results as concerns over a decelerating growth environment and competitive pressures began to mount ahead of the 2026 slowdown. | Crashed -6.3% $45.90 -> $43.00 |
Feb 25, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Weak Guidance Details: Despite beating Q4 estimates, the company guided Q1 2026 revenue growth to decelerate sharply to 10% YoY, citing softness in CPG and Auto verticals, alarming investors. | Fell notably by -4.8% $25.16 -> $23.95 |
Mar 5, 2026 | Google Accelerates Cookie Deprecation Details: Google's accelerated timeline for third-party cookie deprecation to Q2 2026 was perceived as a massive catalyst for TTD's UID2 solution, igniting a strong rally. | Surged +18.4% $25.17 -> $29.79 |
Mar 17, 2026 | Publicis Dispute Escalates Details: News reports surfaced that Publicis Groupe, representing a significant portion of billings, advised clients to cease using TTD's platform, escalating fears of material churn. | Crashed -7.4% $27.08 -> $25.07 |
Mar 27, 2026 | Director Resignation & Nasdaq Non-Compliance Details: A director resignation caused the audit and compensation committees to be temporarily out of compliance with Nasdaq independence rules, adding to governance concerns. Stock fell following the news. | Fell notably by -2.1% $21.74 -> $21.28 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock trades with 'Explosive' volatility (4.15x S&P). The 'Contested' moat, 'Medium' visibility, and 'Neutral' sentiment create a poor risk/reward for aggressive sizing. Cap exposure until the agency dispute resolves.
Diversification Alternatives
META
SECTORA dominant 'walled garden' insulated from open internet risks like cookie deprecation and agency disputes. Its first-party data provides a superior, structural moat for ad targeting.
ROKU
SECTORA pure-play on the CTV adoption tailwind that TTD bulls prize, but without the specific risk of agency fee disputes. It owns the platform and has a direct ad relationship.
The Trade Desk is evolving from a high-growth ad-tech tool to the primary operating system for the open internet, positioning itself as the key independent alternative to walled gardens as the industry shifts to a post-cookie, privacy-focused future.
Filter all news through the lens of the open internet thesis versus the walled gardens. Focus on adoption of UID2, growth in Connected TV (CTV), and major advertising agency partnerships.
News of major advertisers and publishers adopting Unified ID 2.0 (UID2); Connected TV revenue growth outpacing the overall business; new or expanded partnerships with major advertising holding companies; market share gains in the Demand-Side Platform (DSP) space.
Signs of significant traction for competing identity solutions (e.g., Google's Privacy Sandbox); major customers reducing spend or moving to competitors like Amazon DSP or Google DV360; regulatory actions that limit data usage for targeting; key advertising agencies auditing or expressing concern over platform fees.
Short-term fluctuations in digital ad-spend due to macroeconomic concerns; single-quarter guidance misses that don't alter the long-term trend; competitor product announcements without evidence of market share shifts.
Repricing Catalyst
The broad adoption of Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) as the industry standard for identity in a post-cookie world is the primary catalyst. Success here would solidify The Trade Desk's central role in the open internet's advertising infrastructure, leading to sustained market share gains, particularly in the fast-growing Connected TV (CTV) and retail media channels. Disney, Roku, and Walmart are cited as key partners.
Programmatic Advertising Platform
$2.9B TTM (100% of Total) · 78.6% MarginWhat It Is
A demand-side platform (DSP) for omnichannel advertising, including Connected TV (CTV), Mobile, Video, Audio, and Display. Key platform innovations include Kokai (AI-driven media buying), UID2 (identity solution), and OpenPath (direct publisher access).
Who Pays & How
Advertising agencies and brands pay a percentage of their ad spend to use the platform. The platform's independence, objectivity, and advanced data-driven tools provide a strong value proposition, leading to high switching costs and a customer retention rate consistently above 95%.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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