DigitalOcean (DOCN)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $129.49 | Market Cap: $12.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Internet Services & Infrastructure
DigitalOcean (DOCN)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $129.49Market Cap: $12.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Internet Services & Infrastructure
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS). | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 56x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 166%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 358% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 161% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% Key risksDOCN key risks include [1] intense competition from hyperscale cloud providers threatening its market share and [2] scrutiny over its specific financial health, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS). |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 56x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 166%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 358% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 161% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Key risksDOCN key risks include [1] intense competition from hyperscale cloud providers threatening its market share and [2] scrutiny over its specific financial health, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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DigitalOcean (DOCN) stock has gained about 50% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Guidance.
DigitalOcean reported strong financial results for its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) on May 5, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company posted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, beating the consensus estimate of $0.27 by $0.17, a positive surprise of 62.96%. Revenue reached $257.91 million, exceeding the $249.76 million consensus and representing a 22.4% year-over-year increase. Following these results, DigitalOcean raised its revenue guidance for fiscal Q2 2026 to $272 million-$274 million (up 24%-25% year-over-year) and for the full fiscal year 2026 to $1.130 billion-$1.145 billion (up 25%-27% year-over-year).
2. Explosive Growth in AI Customer Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and AI-Native Cloud Strategy.
A core driver of the stock's appreciation was the company's successful pivot and growth in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. DigitalOcean announced that its AI customer annual recurring revenue (ARR) surged by 221% year-over-year to $170 million in fiscal Q1 2026. The company has strategically positioned itself as an "AI-Native Cloud" provider, focusing on supporting AI-native and digital-native enterprises, particularly for inference workloads.
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DigitalOcean (DOCN) stock has gained about 50% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Guidance.
DigitalOcean reported strong financial results for its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) on May 5, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company posted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, beating the consensus estimate of $0.27 by $0.17, a positive surprise of 62.96%. Revenue reached $257.91 million, exceeding the $249.76 million consensus and representing a 22.4% year-over-year increase. Following these results, DigitalOcean raised its revenue guidance for fiscal Q2 2026 to $272 million-$274 million (up 24%-25% year-over-year) and for the full fiscal year 2026 to $1.130 billion-$1.145 billion (up 25%-27% year-over-year).
2. Explosive Growth in AI Customer Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and AI-Native Cloud Strategy.
A core driver of the stock's appreciation was the company's successful pivot and growth in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. DigitalOcean announced that its AI customer annual recurring revenue (ARR) surged by 221% year-over-year to $170 million in fiscal Q1 2026. The company has strategically positioned itself as an "AI-Native Cloud" provider, focusing on supporting AI-native and digital-native enterprises, particularly for inference workloads.
3. Strategic Capital Raise for Infrastructure Expansion.
In late March 2026, DigitalOcean completed an upsized public offering, raising approximately $800 million in gross proceeds. The primary use of these funds was to invest in additional infrastructure capacity, beyond previously communicated plans, to support growing customer demand for its cloud and AI platform, and to strengthen its balance sheet by reducing existing debt. This demonstrated a proactive approach to funding future growth and capitalizing on the surging demand for AI infrastructure.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets.
Following the strong earnings and strategic announcements, numerous investment analysts reiterated positive ratings and raised their price targets for DOCN. For instance, Goldman Sachs increased its target price from $78.00 to $179.00, and Morgan Stanley upped its target from $75.00 to $175.00, both maintaining "buy" or "overweight" ratings. The consensus rating for DigitalOcean remained "Moderate Buy" or "Buy" with an average target price ranging from approximately $146 to $179 across various analysts.
5. Inclusion in the Russell 1000 Index.
DigitalOcean was added to the Russell 1000 Index, moving up from the Russell 2000, as part of FTSE Russell's U.S. index reconstitution. This change became effective after the U.S. market opened on June 29, 2026. Inclusion in major indices like the Russell 1000 can lead to increased demand for the stock from passive index funds, contributing to its upward price momentum.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.7% change in DOCN stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 85.78 | 130.13 | 51.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 901 | 949 | 5.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.8% | 25.0% | -13.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.3 | 51.1 | 68.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 93 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 51.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.5% | 29.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.9% | 44.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 170.4% change in DOCN stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 193.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.12 | 130.13 | 170.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 864 | 949 | 9.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.2% | 25.0% | -14.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.4 | 51.1 | 193.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91 | 93 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 170.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 170.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 34.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.6% | 46.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 355.6% change in DOCN stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 111.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.56 | 130.13 | 355.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 807 | 949 | 17.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.5% | 25.0% | 85.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.2 | 51.1 | 111.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 93 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 355.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 355.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.6% | 35.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.2% | 43.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 224.2% change in DOCN stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 104.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.14 | 130.13 | 224.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 614 | 949 | 54.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.2 | 12.8 | 104.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 93 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 224.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 224.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 46.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 111.6% | 48.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DOCN Return | 89% | -68% | 44% | -7% | 41% | 200% | 240% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -30% | 54% | 27% | 19% | 1% | 119% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DOCN Win Rate | 60% | 25% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 86% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 28% | 70% | 60% | 50% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DOCN Max Drawdown | - | -71% | -60% | -33% | -45% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -40% | -19% | -21% | -32% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, AKAM, ORCL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DOCN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 737 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 144.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1406 days | 427 days |
In The Past
DigitalOcean's stock fell -41.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 70.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | DOCN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 737 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 144.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1406 days | 427 days |
In The Past
DigitalOcean's stock fell -41.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 70.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About DigitalOcean (DOCN)
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. operates a global cloud computing platform designed to provide on-demand infrastructure and platform tools. Essentially, it offers the foundational digital resources necessary for building, deploying, and scaling internet-based applications and services. Its core offerings include infrastructure solutions such as virtual servers (compute), storage, and networking capabilities.
Beyond basic infrastructure, DigitalOcean extends its services to include fully managed application, container, and database offerings. These managed services simplify complex IT operations, allowing users to easily deploy and scale their applications without needing to manage the underlying server infrastructure. The company's primary customers are developers, start-ups, and small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) who seek accessible, scalable, and developer-friendly cloud solutions.
Customers utilize DigitalOcean's platform for a diverse range of use cases, including hosting web and mobile applications, e-commerce sites, media and gaming platforms, and various personal web projects. Its services are delivered internationally across North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions, catering to a broad user base comprising software engineers, researchers, data scientists, system administrators, and students.
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The AWS or Google Cloud for individual developers and small businesses.
A simplified and more affordable AWS or Google Cloud, built for developers and small teams.
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- Compute Infrastructure: Provides on-demand virtual servers and computing resources for running applications and workloads.
- Storage Infrastructure: Offers various storage solutions for data persistence, including block storage and object storage.
- Networking Infrastructure: Enables secure and scalable connectivity, traffic management, and private networking for cloud resources.
- Managed Application Offerings: Delivers fully managed services for deploying, running, and scaling web and mobile applications.
- Managed Container Offerings: Provides managed services for deploying and orchestrating containerized applications.
- Managed Database Offerings: Offers fully managed database services for popular database engines, handling operational complexities.
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DigitalOcean (DOCN) primarily serves a broad base of developers, start-ups, and small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) through its self-service cloud computing platform. Due to the fragmented nature of its customer base and its business model as a cloud infrastructure provider, DigitalOcean does not typically have a few large, identifiable "major customers" that are public companies. Instead, its customer base can be categorized as follows:
- Developers and IT Professionals: This category includes software engineers, researchers, data scientists, and system administrators who utilize DigitalOcean's platform for building, deploying, and managing web and mobile applications, websites, and other digital infrastructure.
- Start-ups and Small to Medium-Sized Businesses (SMBs): Businesses of various sizes, particularly those in their early stages or with smaller IT budgets, leverage DigitalOcean for their core operations, including website hosting, e-commerce platforms, media and gaming applications, and managed services.
- Individuals (Students and Hobbyists): The platform also caters to individual users, such as students learning about cloud computing or hobbyists working on personal web projects and experimental applications.
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- Equinix, Inc. (EQIX)
- Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR)
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Paddy Srinivasan, Chief Executive Officer
Paddy Srinivasan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of DigitalOcean in February 2024. He brings over 25 years of experience in technology leadership to the role. Before joining DigitalOcean, Srinivasan served as CEO at GoTo (formerly LogMeIn), a SaaS company providing cloud communication and IT management software. His career includes leadership positions at major technology companies such as Microsoft, Amazon (where he was General Manager for Data, Machine Learning Platform Services, Alexa AI), and Oracle. He also co-founded Opstera, a cloud monitoring and managed service provider, which was subsequently acquired by Avanade (a Microsoft-Accenture company).
Matt Steinfort, Chief Financial Officer
Matt Steinfort became DigitalOcean's Chief Financial Officer in January 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Chief Financial Officer at Zayo, a global communications infrastructure platform. Steinfort also founded Envysion, a video intelligence SaaS company, where he held the positions of President and CEO. His professional background includes leadership roles at ICG Communications, Level 3 Communications, Bain & Company, and Cambridge Technology Partners.
Vinay Kumar, Chief Product and Technology Officer
Vinay Kumar serves as the Chief Product and Technology Officer at DigitalOcean.
Cynthia Carpenter, Senior Vice President, People
Cynthia Carpenter holds the position of Senior Vice President, People at DigitalOcean.
Larry D'Angelo, Chief Revenue Officer
Larry D'Angelo is the Chief Revenue Officer for DigitalOcean.
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- Intense Competition and Hyperscaler Expansion: DigitalOcean operates in a highly competitive cloud computing market, facing formidable rivals such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, as well as numerous smaller cloud providers. A significant risk is that these larger "hyperscale" cloud providers, with their vast resources and economies of scale, could more aggressively target the small and medium-sized business (SMB) segment, which is DigitalOcean's primary customer base. This heightened competition could lead to price wars, reduced market share, and pressure on DigitalOcean's pricing power and profitability.
- Customer Churn and Low Net Revenue Retention: DigitalOcean faces challenges with customer retention, as indicated by its net revenue retention rate. A low net revenue retention rate suggests that existing customers are not increasing their spending with the company over time, or that a notable portion of customers are leaving. This necessitates a continuous effort to acquire new customers to drive revenue growth, which can be more costly and less sustainable than growing revenue from existing clients.
- Debt Structure and Financial Fluctuations: The company is exposed to risks related to its financial structure, including approximately $1.5 billion in convertible notes, with a significant maturity in 2026. This debt represents a potential financial risk, as settling it through the issuance of new shares at current market prices could result in substantial shareholder dilution. Additionally, DigitalOcean faces challenges with fluctuations in financial results, making it difficult to project future outcomes and potentially leading to stock price volatility if expectations are not met.
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The clear emerging threat for DigitalOcean is the rise of highly specialized, developer-centric platforms that offer an even higher level of abstraction and opinionated workflows for specific application types (e.g., web applications, APIs, static sites). Companies like Vercel, Netlify, Render, and Railway are gaining significant traction by providing streamlined, often Git-driven deployment experiences that abstract away much of the infrastructure management, appealing directly to DigitalOcean's core customer base of developers, startups, and small to medium-sized businesses who prioritize simplicity and rapid deployment for specific workloads. These platforms represent a shift in how certain applications are built and deployed, potentially drawing developers away from more generalized cloud offerings.
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DigitalOcean (DOCN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
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Focus on Digital Native Enterprises (DNEs) and Scaling Larger Customers: DigitalOcean is increasingly concentrating its efforts on attracting and expanding relationships with larger Digital Native Enterprises and customers generating higher Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). The company reported significant growth in its million-dollar customers, with a 123% year-over-year increase in ARR for this cohort in Q4 2025. This focus on scaling with larger, high-growth customers is a key driver as these accounts are accelerating faster than the broader market.
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Expansion into AI/ML Workloads and Inference Cloud Services: DigitalOcean is strategically positioning itself as a platform for AI and cloud-native companies, particularly for production AI workloads. The company's AI customer ARR grew 150% year-over-year in Q4 2025, constituting 12% of total ARR. A substantial portion (70%) of this AI revenue comes from inference services or general cloud, rather than bare metal GPU rentals, indicating a shift towards higher-value offerings. DigitalOcean is investing in GPU capacity and an inference cloud capability to capture this growing market segment.
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Increased Data Center Capacity: To support its anticipated growth, DigitalOcean plans to bring 31 megawatts of new data center capacity online in 2026. This significant infrastructure expansion, with facilities ramping throughout the year, is projected to enable the company to achieve an exit revenue growth rate above 25% by Q4 2026 and reach 30% growth in 2027.
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Product Innovation and Adoption of Higher-Value Managed Services: Continuous product development and the introduction of new features, such as remote MCP support, agent development kit, GPU observability, managed NFS, and multi-node GPU capabilities, are expected to contribute to revenue growth. Furthermore, the increasing adoption of managed services like Kubernetes and Databases, which saw approximately 20% year-over-year growth in early 2025, enhances customer stickiness and drives up average revenue per user (ARPU).
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Share Repurchases
- DigitalOcean has repurchased 2.4 million shares for $82 million in 2025, at an average price of approximately $35 per share.
- Cumulative share repurchases since its IPO reached $1.6 billion and 34.9 million shares through December 31, 2025.
- The company has a remaining $100 million share buyback authorization that extends through July 31, 2027.
Share Issuance
- In 2025, DigitalOcean recorded $4.355 million in proceeds from the issuance of common stock under its equity incentive plan.
- The company received $4.653 million in proceeds from the issuance of common stock under its employee stock purchase plan in 2025.
- Weighted average fully diluted shares outstanding for full-year 2025 were approximately 106 million to 107 million shares.
Capital Expenditures
- DigitalOcean's total capital expenditures were $266 million in 2025, $186 million in 2024, and $125 million in 2023.
- Capital expenditures for property and equipment were $129.086 million in 2025 and $178.167 million in 2024.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on investments in data centers and GPU capacity to accelerate growth, including securing approximately 30 megawatts of incremental data center capacity to support growth in 2026 and beyond.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 191.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,505.1 |
| Rev LTM | 192,816 |
| Op Inc LTM | 53,932 |
| FCF LTM | 399 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,050 |
| CFO LTM | 90,254 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 72,175 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 39.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,505.1 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 29.3 |
| P/EBIT | 22.2 |
| P/E | 27.9 |
| P/CFO | 17.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $130.13 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/24/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $78.41 | $85.23 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 66.0% | 52.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 115.7% | 84.3% |
| Downside Capture | 466.83 | 246.84 |
| Upside Capture | 390.85 | 374.64 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.7% | 35.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.26 | 3.37 | 2.42 | 2.33 | 2.31 | 2.07 |
| Up Beta | 2.44 | 3.68 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 1.73 | 1.76 |
| Down Beta | 0.06 | -0.46 | -0.39 | 0.52 | 1.21 | 1.78 |
| Up Capture | 353% | 861% | 633% | 1048% | 1622% | 5396% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 34 | 66 | 131 | 376 |
| Down Capture | 250% | 303% | 295% | 177% | 158% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 29 | 59 | 120 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DOCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 359.6% | 84.1% | 2.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 44.7% | 24.0% | 1.48 | 43.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.5% | 1.29 | 35.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.1% | 27.7% | 0.73 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.3% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 3.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.7% | -1.15 | 18.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DOCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 20.8% | 71.5% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.9% | 25.4% | 0.73 | 54.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 52.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.25 | 7.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 53.8% | 0.41 | 27.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DOCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 11.7% | 70.9% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.9% | 24.8% | 0.91 | 53.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 51.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.1% | 0.61 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 33.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.0% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 26.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 40.4% | 49.5% | 59.6% |
| 2/24/2026 | 5.9% | -1.7% | 43.3% |
| 11/5/2025 | 18.0% | 28.8% | 24.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 28.9% | 9.4% | 18.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | -13.8% | -3.5% | -8.8% |
| 2/25/2025 | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.2% |
| 11/4/2024 | -13.5% | -5.7% | -4.8% |
| 8/8/2024 | 11.9% | 25.8% | 33.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 11.4% | 14.2% | 21.5% |
| Median Negative | -9.6% | -5.0% | -10.6% |
| Max Positive | 40.4% | 49.5% | 59.6% |
| Max Negative | -24.8% | -29.2% | -42.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 40.4% | 49.5% | 59.6% |
| 2/24/2026 | 5.9% | -1.7% | 43.3% |
| 11/5/2025 | 18.0% | 28.8% | 24.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 28.9% | 9.4% | 18.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | -13.8% | -3.5% | -8.8% |
| 2/25/2025 | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.2% |
| 11/4/2024 | -13.5% | -5.7% | -4.8% |
| 8/8/2024 | 11.9% | 25.8% | 33.6% |
| 5/10/2024 | 10.2% | 14.5% | 12.6% |
| 2/21/2024 | 8.7% | 4.1% | 11.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | 16.6% | 15.4% | 44.9% |
| 8/3/2023 | -24.8% | -25.0% | -42.7% |
| 5/9/2023 | 0.6% | -0.4% | 28.6% |
| 2/16/2023 | 7.8% | -0.8% | 3.3% |
| 11/7/2022 | -4.3% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 8/8/2022 | -1.5% | 1.7% | -15.5% |
| 5/4/2022 | -18.1% | -29.2% | 9.4% |
| 2/24/2022 | 18.6% | 35.0% | 28.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 11.4% | 13.9% | -11.1% |
| 8/5/2021 | -2.3% | -5.0% | 9.1% |
| 5/6/2021 | -5.6% | -16.5% | -10.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 11.4% | 14.2% | 21.5% |
| Median Negative | -9.6% | -5.0% | -10.6% |
| Max Positive | 40.4% | 49.5% | 59.6% |
| Max Negative | -24.8% | -29.2% | -42.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/24/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 272.00 Mil | 273.00 Mil | 274.00 Mil | 9.4% | Higher New | Actual: 249.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 37.0% | 37.5% | 38.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 36.5% for Q1 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP diluted net income per share | 0.2 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -12.2% | Lower New | Actual: 0.24 for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.13 Bil | 1.14 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 4.4% | Raised | Guidance: 1.09 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 37.0% | 38.0% | 39.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 37.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow margin | 9.0% | 10.5% | 12.0% | -34.4% | -5.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 16.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted net income per share | 1.1 | 1.15 | 1.2 | 31.4% | Raised | Guidance: 0.88 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 26.0% | Higher New | |||||
| 2027 Revenue Growth | 50.0% | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 249.00 Mil | 249.50 Mil | 250.00 Mil | 5.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 237.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin | 36.0% | 36.5% | 37.0% | -6.4% | -2.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 39.0% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP diluted net income per share | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.27 | -34.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.38 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.07 Bil | 1.09 Bil | 1.10 Bil | 21.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 896.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin | 36.0% | 37.0% | 38.0% | -9.4% | -3.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 40.85% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow margin | 15.0% | 16.0% | 17.0% | -13.5% | -2.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 18.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Unlevered adjusted free cash flow margin | 18.0% | 19.0% | 20.0% | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted net income per share | 0.75 | 0.88 | 1 | -56.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.02 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steinfort, Matt | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 170.07 | 10,000 | 1,700,700 | 91,568,069 | Form |
| 2 | Jenson, Warren | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 147.62 | 20,000 | 2,952,400 | 4,797,207 | Form | |
| 3 | Steinfort, Matt | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 152.50 | 25,000 | 3,812,500 | 87,423,980 | Form |
| 4 | Schneider, Hilary | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 156.38 | 4,338 | 678,376 | 3,803,631 | Form | |
| 5 | Access, Industries Holdings Llc | LLC | Sell | 5152026 | 150.30 | 3,300,000 | 495,990,000 | 17,973,926 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steinfort, Matt | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 170.07 | 10,000 | 1,700,700 | 91,568,069 | Form |
| 2 | Jenson, Warren | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 147.62 | 20,000 | 2,952,400 | 4,797,207 | Form | |
| 3 | Steinfort, Matt | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 152.50 | 25,000 | 3,812,500 | 87,423,980 | Form |
| 4 | Schneider, Hilary | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 156.38 | 4,338 | 678,376 | 3,803,631 | Form | |
| 5 | Access, Industries Holdings Llc | LLC | Sell | 5152026 | 150.30 | 3,300,000 | 495,990,000 | 17,973,926 | Form | |
| 6 | Access, Industries Holdings Llc | LLC | Sell | 5112026 | 159.97 | 181,147 | 28,977,237 | 3,468,188,027 | Form | |
| 7 | Access, Industries Holdings Llc | LLC | Sell | 5112026 | 150.98 | 210,659 | 31,805,555 | 3,300,754,979 | Form | |
| 8 | Steinfort, Matt | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 55.40 | 20,000 | 1,108,000 | 30,243,746 | Form |
| 9 | Barrett, Cherie | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 54.77 | 22,000 | 1,204,940 | 3,421,427 | Form |
| 10 | Saha, Bratin | Chief Product & Tech Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 31.87 | 13,010 | 414,629 | 8,587,850 | Form |
DOCN Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis reveals a highly attractive, probability-adjusted risk/reward skew of 2.77x. The market appears to be mispricing a temporary, macro-level supply risk ('Anti-Alpha') while underappreciating the powerful leading indicators (370% RPO growth) that signal an acceleration in durable, high-margin revenue streams. This qualifies as a high-conviction investment opportunity.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderDigitalOcean's investment profile is defined by its pursuit of high growth in specific, emerging segments (AI, high-spend customers) within a competitive market, rather than stable cash generation or cyclical dynamics. The thesis hinges on the durability of this growth and the strength of its niche competitive moat, aligning perfectly with the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis for DigitalOcean is a strategic and successful pivot from its historical low-cost, simple compute niche to capturing higher-value, more durable revenue streams. This is driven by attracting larger 'Scaler+' customers and penetrating the high-growth AI/ML market. This mix shift structurally enhances ARPU, profitability, and growth durability.
- Revenue from customers spending >$100k/year grew 41% YoY in Q3 2025, now representing 26% of total revenue.
- Direct AI-related revenue has more than doubled year-over-year for five consecutive quarters.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), a leading indicator of future revenue, surged 370% YoY to $47M, dramatically outpacing the 16% total revenue growth.
- Management raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance and accelerated long-term growth targets to 18-20% for FY26.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant near-term risk to the thesis is a global shortage of high-performance GPUs, driven by massive AI-related demand from hyperscalers and enterprises. This could impede DigitalOcean's ability to scale its AI offerings, a critical component of its growth strategy, leading to slower rollouts, higher capital expenditures, and potential margin pressure on these new, high-demand products.
- Industry reports indicate Nvidia is slashing production of certain GPUs by 30-40% in H1 2026 to prioritize high-margin AI accelerators.
- Peer cloud providers like OVH have forecasted 15-20% server price hikes from OEMs, indicating inflationary pressure across the hardware ecosystem.
- This risk is categorized as high likelihood and high impact in the company's risk matrix, with a potential -15% stock impact if it materializes.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue from Customers >$100k ARR | >35% YoY Growth | This is the primary indicator of the successful pivot to higher-value, more durable revenue streams. Sustaining a high growth rate here is critical to the alpha thesis. |
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) Growth | >50% YoY Growth | As the best leading indicator of future revenue, continued strong RPO growth provides visibility and confidence that the current momentum is sustainable and not a one-off. |
| Net Dollar Retention (NDR) | Consistently >100% | Getting and staying above the 100% expansion threshold is crucial to demonstrate that the company is expanding revenue from its existing customer base, a hallmark of a healthy SaaS model. |
Pivoting Upmarket vs. Core Market Health
BULL VIEW
The successful pivot to larger customers ($100k+ cohort grew 41% YoY) and AI workloads is creating a more profitable, durable business with significant operating leverage.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating growth in high-value AI/enterprise customers offset potential weakness in the core SMB market and justify the execution risk against giant competitors?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Revenue from customers spending over $100,000/year grew 41% YoY in Q3 2025, now representing 26% of total revenue. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 370% YoY.
BEAR VIEW
A 99% Net Dollar Retention rate indicates churn in the core SMB base. The company is now fighting larger competitors while facing GPU supply constraints.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 24, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call Watch: FY2026 revenue guidance and commentary on Net Dollar Retention (NDR). Any mention of GPU supply chain impact on CapEx or growth. |
April 22-24, 2026 | Google Cloud Next '26 Watch: Announcements of new, simplified IaaS products with predictable, fixed-price billing aimed at the developer/SMB market. |
Q2-Q3 2026 | Competitor Price Hikes Watch: Public announcements of server price increases from OEMs (Dell, Lenovo) or cloud competitors (Vultr, Linode) due to rising infrastructure costs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-05 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported quarterly results that beat analyst expectations, signaling strong business momentum heading into the second half of the year. | Surged +28.88% $27.01 -> $34.81 |
2025-10-02 | Deploy 25 London Conference Details: Announced product updates including new GPU offerings (NVIDIA, AMD), an expanded AI Partner Program, and new storage capabilities like Network File System Service. | Surged +7.92% $35.87 -> $38.71 |
2025-11-05 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q3 revenue of $230M (+16% YoY), beat estimates. Raised full-year revenue guidance. Highlighted 41% YoY growth from customers spending >$100k. | Surged +18.01% $38.82 -> $45.81 |
2025-12-01 | UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 Details: Management participated in the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference. No major announcements were made. | Muted (-0.34%) $44.52 -> $44.37 |
2025-12-15 | Managed Kubernetes Updates Details: Company blogged a recap of 2025 releases for its managed Kubernetes service, including enhancements for security, autoscaling, and support for multi-node GPUs. | Fell notably by -3.94% $47.66 -> $45.78 |
2026-02-04 | Product & Billing Model Update Details: Company announced a shift to per-second billing for its Droplet virtual machines, effective Jan 1, 2026, to provide more granular cost control for customers. | Surged +8.25% $55.25 -> $59.81 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.45x S&P). While sentiment is Bullish and valuation appears cheap, the 'Low' visibility rating caps conviction. We cap size to Normal to manage drawdown risk from the high volatility.
Diversification Alternatives
OVH.PA
INDUSTRYUnlike DOCN's US-centric revenue, OVHcloud offers geographic diversification with a strong European presence. It also faces similar input cost pressures, providing a good comparable.
AKAM
SECTORAkamai (owner of Linode) is a much larger, more diversified, and consistently profitable entity with a global CDN network. It offers exposure to the same cloud niche but with a stronger balance sheet.
DigitalOcean is re-rating from a niche cloud provider for individual developers to a high-growth 'Agentic Inference Cloud' for AI-native SMBs and enterprises, targeting 30% revenue growth by 2027.
Filter all news through the lens of the company's transformation into a profitable, high-growth AI cloud platform for larger customers.
AI customer ARR growth >100% YoY; Million-dollar customer ARR growth >100% YoY; Net Dollar Retention (NDR) for $1M+ customers >110%; sustained revenue growth acceleration toward the 25%+ exit rate target for 2026.
Deceleration in AI or million-dollar customer ARR growth; decline in Net Dollar Retention Rate below 100%; significant price competition from hyperscalers (AWS, GCP, Azure) targeting the SMB AI market; failure to meet 2026 revenue growth guidance of 21%.
Quarterly fluctuations in the number of small 'learner' developers; benchmark comparisons on single Droplet performance vs. competitors; general cloud market size commentary.
Repricing Catalyst
The rapid expansion into the AI inference market is the primary catalyst. AI customer ARR reached $120 million in Q4 2025, growing 150% YoY. The company is also successfully moving upmarket, with million-dollar customer ARR hitting $133 million, up 123% YoY, and exhibiting zero churn in the last twelve months. Management has raised its outlook, targeting 21% growth in 2026, exiting the year at 25%+, and reaching 30% growth in 2027.
Cloud Infrastructure for SMBs & Developers
$901000.0B TTM (100% of Total) · 60% MarginWhat It Is
Core products include 'Droplets' (scalable virtual machines), Managed Kubernetes, App Platform (PaaS), managed databases (PostgreSQL, MySQL), Spaces (object storage), and specialized GPU compute for AI workloads.
Who Pays & How
Startups, SMBs, and individual developers pay for a simple, predictable, and cost-effective alternative to complex hyperscale clouds. Named AI customers include character.ai, Workato, and Hippocratic AI. Lock-in occurs as applications are built and data is stored on the platform, making migration to another provider costly and time-consuming.
Competition
DigitalOcean — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure Resources |
| Data Center Dynamics |
| Data Center Frontier |
| Internet Society |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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