Exzeo (XZO)
Market Price (5/25/2026): $13.07 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Multi-line Insurance
Exzeo (XZO)
Market Price (5/25/2026): $13.07Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Multi-line Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 9.0% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 49% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -49% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% | Key risksXZO key risks include [1] significant customer and geographic concentration tied to its former parent company and the Florida homeowners insurance market, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 9.0% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 49% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -49% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% |
| Key risksXZO key risks include [1] significant customer and geographic concentration tied to its former parent company and the Florida homeowners insurance market, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exzeo's Q1 2026 revenue missed analyst expectations, despite an earnings per share beat, coupled with unchanged full-year guidance. The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $55.5 million, falling short of analysts' consensus estimate of $55.90 million by $0.4 million. While Exzeo did beat EPS estimates by $0.02, reporting $0.22 per share against a $0.20 consensus, management's decision to maintain unchanged financial guidance for Q2 and the full year 2026 likely disappointed investors who may have anticipated an upward revision following the earnings beat, signaling a potential lack of renewed confidence in near-term growth. This revenue shortfall contributed to the stock's 19.28% plunge to $13.94 per share after the Q1 earnings announcement.
2. The stock experienced negative technical sentiment and valuation concerns. Exzeo's stock received a "Strong Sell" technical sentiment signal, and it has been trading in a very wide and falling trend, dropping by 25.65% in the 10 days leading up to May 20, 2026. This technical weakness, despite underlying strong financial performance metrics like rapid growth, high margins, and strong cash conversion, suggested that the market was applying a discounted valuation, contributing to the stock's overall decline.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.2% change in XZO stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -65.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.32 | 12.97 | -36.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 87 | 158 | 82.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 21.3 | 7.4 | -65.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91 | 91 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XZO | -36.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 44.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | -2.3% | 42.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XZO | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 47.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.0% | 42.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XZO | ||
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 47.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.2% | 42.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XZO | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 47.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 64.4% | 42.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XZO Return | - | - | - | - | 15% | -47% | -38% |
| Peers Return | 4% | -34% | 43% | 32% | 6% | -26% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XZO Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 31% | 61% | 61% | 56% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XZO Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -43% | -17% | -13% | -27% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GWRE, VRSK, SSNC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
XZO has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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XZO has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2329 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Exzeo (XZO)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Exzeo is like a
Shopify for insurance carriers
or a
Salesforce for P&C insurance operations
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Exzeo Platform: A proprietary Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform comprising nine highly configurable software and data analytics applications tailored for the property and casualty (P&C) insurance ecosystem.
- Underwriting and Policy Management Services: Technology-based solutions that automate and streamline quoting, underwriting, and the comprehensive management of insurance policies for P&C carriers and agents.
- Claims Processing Management Services: Services provided through the Exzeo Platform that manage and automate the entire claims processing workflow for P&C insurance companies.
- Data and Financial Reporting Services: Solutions that offer robust data analytics and financial reporting capabilities through the Exzeo Platform to support operational oversight and strategic decision-making.
AI Analysis | Feedback
<p>Exzeo (XZO) primarily sells its insurance technology and operations solutions to other companies, specifically insurance carriers and their agents.</p>
<h3>Major Customers:</h3>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>HCI Group, Inc.</strong> (NYSE: HCI) and its subsidiaries or managing general agents that are owned or managed by HCI. Exzeo was established as the technology and innovation division of HCI Group, Inc. and has derived substantially all of its revenues to date from these customers.</li>
</ul>
<p>Exzeo also intends to develop new customer partnerships with additional carriers and their agents beyond its initial HCI-related customer base.</p>AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Paresh Patel
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Paresh Patel was appointed CEO of Exzeo Group, Inc. in July 2020. He also serves as the Chairman of Exzeo. Mr. Patel founded Exzeo in 2012 as the technology and innovation division of HCI Group, Inc., where he also serves as Chairman and CEO. He is also the Chief Executive Officer of TypTap Insurance Company, a subsidiary of HCI. Patel has experience raising capital, having secured approximately $13 million to launch HCI.
Suela Bulku
Chief Financial Officer
Suela Bulku is the Chief Financial Officer of Exzeo Group, Inc. She has reported on the company's strong financial performance, including increased revenue, improved adjusted EBITDA margins, and significant positive free cash flow. Ms. Bulku recently purchased Exzeo stock in December 2025.
Kevin Mitchell
President
Kevin Mitchell serves as the President of Exzeo Group, Inc. and is also a Director. He has been involved in expanding Exzeo's client base and product offerings, including the addition of Tokio Marine Highland as a new client and flood insurance as a new product on the Exzeo platform.
Shawn McVeigh
Chief Technology Officer
Shawn McVeigh is the Chief Technology Officer at Exzeo Group, Inc.
Brook Baker
General Counsel
Brook Baker is the General Counsel for Exzeo Group, Inc. She purchased Exzeo stock in December 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlRisk of Customer Concentration
Exzeo has derived substantially all of its revenues to date from insurance carriers or their managing general agents that are owned or managed by HCI Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries. This significant reliance on a single group of related customers exposes Exzeo to a high risk of customer concentration. Any adverse changes in the business relationship with HCI Group, a decrease in the business volume from these customers, or a decision by HCI Group to internalize technology solutions could severely impact Exzeo's financial performance and operational stability. ```AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Market for Exzeo's Main Products and Services
Exzeo primarily operates within the Property and Casualty (P&C) Insurance Software market. This market encompasses the software solutions designed to assist P&C insurance companies in managing various operations, including policy management, claims management, billing, accounting, and analytics, which align with Exzeo's proprietary platform offerings.
The North American P&C Insurance Software Market was valued at approximately USD 11.54 billion in 2024. This market is projected to reach around USD 14.33 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.4% from 2025 to 2033. North America holds a leading position in this market due to its advanced technological infrastructure and high adoption rates of digital solutions within the insurance sector.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Exzeo (XZO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:- Expansion of Customer Base: Exzeo aims to significantly grow its customer base beyond its initial reliance on HCI Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries. The company is actively working to onboard new third-party clients and broaden its sales funnel to attract additional carriers and their agents. This focus on expanding to non-HCI clients is a stated goal for 2026, with new startups added to the platform expected to contribute significantly to managed premium.
- Broadening Product Offerings: Exzeo is expanding its suite of solutions by launching new products and services on its platform. A recent example includes the introduction of the TMH2O flood insurance product, which has expanded the company's market reach and attracted new clients like Tokio Marine Highland. This strategy of introducing purpose-built applications for the P&C insurance ecosystem is expected to attract more customers and increase engagement with existing ones.
- Geographic Market Expansion: The company plans to extend its operational footprint into new states. Currently providing services in 13 states, Exzeo intends to expand into the remaining 21 states by obtaining additional licenses as needed, driven by the growth plans of existing customers and the geographies of new partnerships. This expansion into new markets will allow Exzeo to capture a larger share of the insurance technology market.
- Leveraging AI and Technological Advancements: Exzeo anticipates that the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning in the insurance industry will be a significant catalyst for its platform's growth. The company's data-centric technology is well-positioned to integrate these advancements, offering carriers enhanced capabilities for risk assessment, faster loss identification, and fraud mitigation. Management believes that AI will drive an "upgrade super-cycle" in the industry, accelerating the demand for Exzeo's automated and scalable platform.
- Growth in Managed Premium: Exzeo's revenue model is tied to the premium managed through its platform. The company has consistently reported substantial increases in managed premium, with an outlook for 2026 raising expectations to $1.55 billion. This growth in managed premium reflects the increasing adoption and utilization of the Exzeo Platform by both existing and new clients, directly translating into higher revenues through its variable fee structure.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Exzeo Group completed its initial public offering (IPO) on November 5, 2025, offering 8 million shares at $21.00 per share, raising $168 million.
- The company granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1.2 million shares at the IPO price.
- As of February 20, 2026, Exzeo Group had 90,913,540 common shares outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- Exzeo Group was established as the technology and innovation division of HCI Group, Inc., which later spun it off as a separate public company.
- Following the IPO, HCI Group remained the majority shareholder, holding approximately 75% ownership. As of December 5, 2026, HCI Group's beneficial ownership was 82.6% of Exzeo's common stock, totaling 75,000,000 shares.
- Major institutional investors, including Ophir Asset Management Pty Ltd, Janus Henderson Group PLC, Jennison Associates LLC, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., hold significant stakes in Exzeo Group.
Outbound Investments
- On July 1, 2024, Exzeo transferred all 2,500,000 outstanding shares of its TypTap Insurance Company (TTIC) subsidiary to HCI Group in exchange for the settlement of promissory notes. This sale constituted a disposal of a significant component of Exzeo's business.
- The company intends to pursue strategic acquisitions of complementary technology firms.
Capital Expenditures
- In the last 12 months (ending Q4 2025), Exzeo Group reported capital expenditures of -$2.84 million.
- In Q4 2025, capital expenditures were $403K, representing a 37.8% decrease from the prior quarter.
- Exzeo plans to use its IPO proceeds to accelerate product development of its core software platform, expand data-analytics capabilities through investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, and increase marketing and sales capacity in additional U.S. states.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to XZO.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | HOMB | Home BancShares | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 103.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,222 |
| Op Inc LTM | 737 |
| FCF LTM | 711 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 986 |
| CFO LTM | 852 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,219 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.0 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.9 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 22.7 |
| P/CFO | 13.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -35.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -63.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -76.9% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patel, Paresh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 5222026 | 12.82 | 2,000 | 25,640 | 21,358,287 | Form |
| 2 | Patel, Paresh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 5202026 | 13.69 | 2,000 | 27,380 | 22,752,958 | Form |
| 3 | Patel, Paresh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 13.68 | 2,000 | 27,355 | 22,677,473 | Form |
| 4 | Patel, Paresh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 5152026 | 13.75 | 2,000 | 27,500 | 22,770,179 | Form |
| 5 | Patel, Paresh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 5132026 | 13.85 | 2,000 | 27,700 | 22,880,380 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Multi-line Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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