Winchester Bancorp (WSBK)
Market Price (2/16/2026): $12.59 | Market Cap: $112.9 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Winchester Bancorp (WSBK)
Market Price (2/16/2026): $12.59Market Cap: $112.9 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 158x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% | Key risksWSBK key risks include [1] concentrated credit risk in eastern Massachusetts real estate, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 158x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% |
| Key risksWSBK key risks include [1] concentrated credit risk in eastern Massachusetts real estate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Earnings Growth for the Quarter and Six Months Ended December 31, 2025. Winchester Bancorp reported a net income of $1.1 million, or $0.12 per common share, for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, which represents a substantial increase of 187.9% compared to $373,000 in the same quarter of the previous year. Additionally, net income for the six months ended December 31, 2025, significantly improved to $2.0 million ($0.23 per share) from a net loss of $259,000 in the corresponding period of 2024.
2. Significant Expansion of Net Interest Margin. The company experienced a notable improvement in its net interest margin, which expanded by 59 basis points to 2.51% for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, up from 1.92% in the prior year. This growth was driven by a more stable interest rate environment, balance sheet expansion, a higher-yielding loan portfolio, and reduced deposit and borrowing costs. Net interest income for the quarter also climbed to $6.06 million, compared to $4.03 million a year ago.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.3% change in WSBK stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.60 | 12.70 | 32.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19 | 21 | 7.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.5 | 5.5 | 22.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 9 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WSBK | 32.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.0% | -16.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.4% | 5.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.2% change in WSBK stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.46 | 12.70 | 34.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 21 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 158.1 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 9 | 5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WSBK | 34.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | -9.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.1% | 5.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WSBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 14.3% | -10.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.4% | -0.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WSBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | -10.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 47.7% | -0.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WSBK Return | - | - | - | - | 12% | 21% | 35% |
| Peers Return | 45% | -13% | -21% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WSBK Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 75% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 36% | 50% | 58% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WSBK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -6% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -21% | -44% | -20% | -15% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HIFS, EBC, INDB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
WSBK has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HIFS, EBC, INDB
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Winchester Bancorp (WSBK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Winchester Bancorp is like a **Bank of America**, but focused on specific local communities in Massachusetts.
Think of it as a **Wells Fargo** that primarily serves a smaller, concentrated community rather than a national footprint.
It's a community bank, operating similarly to the retail arm of a **JPMorgan Chase**, but without the national scale or extensive corporate operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Deposit Services: These include various checking, savings, money market, and certificate of deposit accounts for individuals and businesses to store and manage their funds.
- Residential Mortgage Loans: The bank provides financing to individuals for the purchase, construction, or refinancing of owner-occupied residential properties.
- Commercial Real Estate Loans: Lending services are offered to businesses for the acquisition, development, and refinancing of commercial and multi-family real estate properties.
- Commercial & Industrial Loans: These loans provide capital to businesses for a range of purposes including working capital, equipment financing, and other operational needs.
- Consumer Loans: This category encompasses personal loans, home equity loans, and lines of credit offered to individuals for various personal financial needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Winchester Bancorp (WSBK), through its subsidiary Winchester Savings Bank, operates as a community bank primarily serving individuals and businesses within its local market. Therefore, its major customers fall into the following categories:
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Individual Customers (Retail Banking): This category includes households and consumers who utilize personal checking and savings accounts, certificates of deposit, residential mortgage loans, home equity loans, and various other consumer loans.
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Small to Medium-sized Business Customers (Commercial Banking): This category encompasses local businesses, including small commercial enterprises, professional practices, and real estate investors, which rely on the bank for commercial real estate loans, business lines of credit, term loans, business deposit accounts, and cash management services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
RSM US LLP
AI Analysis | Feedback
John A. Carroll President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Carroll joined Winchester Savings Bank in January 2022. Before that, he was employed by East Boston Savings Bank from 2012 to December 2021, where he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. East Boston Savings Bank was sold to Rockland Trust Company in 2021. Mr. Carroll has over 20 years of experience in the banking industry.
Elda Heller Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Ms. Heller has held this position since April 2022. She joined Winchester Savings Bank in 2014. Prior to that, she spent a decade in the credit union industry, holding roles of increasing responsibility, including Vice President of Finance at Metro Credit Union.
Paul V. Cheremka Senior Vice President and Senior Lender
Mr. Cheremka joined Winchester Savings Bank in July 2022. He previously served as a Vice President and Commercial Lender at North Shore Bank, Reading Cooperative Bank, East Boston Savings Bank, and Bank of New England.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Winchester Bancorp's (WSBK) business operations are primarily concentrated in its lending practices, exposure to interest rate fluctuations, and operational vulnerabilities.
- Credit Risk and Real Estate Loan Concentration: Winchester Bancorp's business model heavily emphasizes real estate loans, which exposes it to significant credit risk. A decline in real estate values, particularly in its primary operating area of eastern Massachusetts where it focuses on residential and commercial real estate lending, could impair the value of the collateral securing these loans and adversely affect the company's financial condition. The company reported a substantial increase in its provision for credit losses and net charge-offs in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating potential asset quality concerns.
- Interest Rate Risk: Changes in market interest rates pose a significant risk to Winchester Bancorp's operating results and asset values. Rising interest rates can increase the cost of funds for the bank and negatively impact the ability of borrowers to repay their loans. While the company utilizes simulation models to monitor interest rate risk, a substantial and unexpected shift in market rates could still have a material adverse effect on its financial condition and results of operations.
- Operational and Cybersecurity Risks: Winchester Bancorp relies on technology and third-party vendors for its operations. This reliance exposes the company to operational disruptions and cybersecurity threats, which could have adverse effects on its financial condition and results of operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clearest emerging threat for Winchester Bancorp, like many traditional regional banks, is the rapid rise and adoption of Fintech companies and digital-only banks (neobanks). These entities leverage technology to offer streamlined, often lower-cost, and highly convenient banking services (e.g., mobile-first accounts, rapid loan approvals, user-friendly budgeting tools). They threaten WSBK's traditional business model by:
- Attracting younger demographics who prefer digital interactions and are less tied to physical branches.
- Eroding deposit bases through competitive interest rates or fee structures.
- Challenging lending markets for mortgages, personal loans, and small business loans by offering faster approval processes and more tailored products.
- Increasing pressure on traditional banks to continually invest in their digital platforms and user experience to remain competitive.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Winchester Bancorp, Inc. (WSBK), through its subsidiary Winchester Savings Bank, operates as a community bank primarily in Eastern Massachusetts, with branches in Winchester, Arlington, Danvers, and Woburn. The bank offers a range of financial products and services, including deposit accounts (checking, savings, money market, and certificates of deposit), various loan types (residential real estate, commercial real estate, construction, home equity, commercial business, and consumer loans), and investment in securities. Due to the regional nature of Winchester Bancorp's operations, specific market sizes for its precise geographic footprint (Eastern Massachusetts) are not readily available for all its products and services. However, the addressable markets can be considered within the broader context of the U.S. or North American banking sectors for its primary offerings. The addressable markets for Winchester Bancorp's main products and services are as follows: * Community Banking Market (U.S. / North America): The global community banking market was estimated at USD 16.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 29.07 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 5.7% from 2025 to 2034. In 2024, North America held a dominant market position, capturing more than a 40% share, with a revenue of USD 6.68 billion. The U.S. community banking market alone was valued at USD 6.35 billion in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 3.8%. Another source estimates the U.S. community banking market at US$205.4 billion in 2024, with the global market reaching US$935.2 billion by 2030. * Mortgage Lending Market (Global / North America): The global mortgage lending market was valued at $11,487.23 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach $27,509.24 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 9.5% from 2022 to 2031. In 2021, North America dominated the mortgage lending market share. The global mortgage lender market size was valued at USD 15.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 24.6 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.8% between 2025 and 2034. The U.S. region in North America dominated the mortgage lender market in 2024, holding approximately 84% market share in North America and generating revenue of USD 5.6 billion. Another estimate places the global mortgage market at $16,208.45 billion in 2024, expected to reach $41,833.26 billion by 2035. North America is projected to dominate this market, with a value of $650.0 billion in 2024, expanding to $1,040.0 billion by 2035. * Commercial Lending Market (Global): The global commercial lending market was valued at $8,823.53 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach $29,379.83 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 13.1% from 2021 to 2030. Another source states the global commercial lending market size was valued at USD 9.7 trillion in 2023 and is poised to grow from USD 10.68 trillion in 2024 to USD 23.06 trillion by 2032, with a CAGR of 10.1% during the forecast period (2025-2032). The global commercial lending market was estimated at USD 2,987.59 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 8,248.51 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.67% during the forecast period 2025-2035. North America is a significant region in the commercial lending market.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Winchester Bancorp (WSBK) over the next 2-3 years:- Continued Loan Growth in Key Segments: Winchester Bancorp anticipates sustained growth in its loan portfolio, particularly in construction and commercial real estate. Net loans increased by 5.6% or $42.0 million in the quarter ended September 30, 2025, primarily driven by these categories, along with multi-family and residential real estate loans. The year ended June 30, 2025, also saw a 10.2% increase in net loans, with multi-family, residential real estate, and commercial real estate as main contributors.
- Expansion of Deposit Base through Municipal Deposits: The company has launched a new deposit channel specifically targeting municipal deposits, which is expected to continue contributing to strong deposit growth. This strategy has already yielded results, with municipal customer deposits increasing by $38.9 million in the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Overall deposits grew by 5.5% in the same quarter.
- Net Interest Margin Expansion: Growth in net interest income is expected to be driven by an expanding net interest margin. The company has seen its net interest margin increase due to higher yields on investment securities and a decrease in average rates on interest-bearing deposit accounts. The net interest margin expanded by nine basis points for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and 65 basis points compared to the same quarter last year.
- Prudent Growth of Customer Base and Market Share Acquisition: Management has expressed a clear intention to "continue to gain market share as we prudently grow our customer base." This strategic focus on expanding its customer base within its existing markets in southeastern New Hampshire and portions of north-central Massachusetts is a key driver for future revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- In the year ended June 30, 2025, Winchester Bancorp used $3.3 million for the purchase of 334,633 shares of common stock by its Employee Stock Ownership Plan ("ESOP") in connection with the initial public offering.
- The company's S-1 IPO registration in 2024 indicated that a portion of the net proceeds from the offering might be used to repurchase shares of common stock in the future.
Share Issuance
- Winchester Bancorp, Inc. completed its initial public offering (IPO) on April 30, 2025, selling 3,997,012 shares of common stock at $10.00 per share, raising gross proceeds of $39,970,120.
- As part of the reorganization and IPO, the company issued 5,112,457 shares of common stock to Winchester Bancorp, MHC, and 185,907 shares to the Winchester Savings Bank Charitable Foundation, Inc.
- Net proceeds from the stock offering contributed $37.8 million to shareholders' equity for the year ended June 30, 2025.
Inbound Investments
- The company's initial public offering in April 2025 resulted in $39.97 million in gross proceeds from the sale of common stock to public investors.
Outbound Investments
- Winchester Bancorp, Inc. stated in its S-1 IPO registration that it may use a portion of the net proceeds from the offering to finance the possible acquisition of other financial institutions or other financial services businesses.
Capital Expenditures
- In 2024, Winchester Savings Bank celebrated the grand opening of its fifth branch office in Danvers.
- The company intends to continue seeking opportunities to expand its branch network in communities that could benefit from its services.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Winchester Bancorp Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 371 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 248 |
| CFO LTM | 122 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 265 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 37.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 55.0 |
| P/CFO | 21.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 23.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 22.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 25.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -39.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/28/2026 | 0.9% | ||
| 10/22/2025 | -1.7% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 7/30/2025 | -1.0% | 0.7% | -1.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -0.7% | |
| Max Positive | 0.9% | 0.7% | |
| Max Negative | -1.7% | -1.1% | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hood, William Preston | Direct | Buy | 6102025 | 9.21 | 1,050 | 9,670 | 470,171 | Form | |
| 2 | Hood, William Preston | Direct | Buy | 5152025 | 9.59 | 5,000 | 47,926 | 479,260 | Form | |
| 3 | Hood, William Preston | Direct | Buy | 5092025 | 9.68 | 10,000 | 96,781 | 338,732 | Form | |
| 4 | Hood, William Preston | Direct | Buy | 5092025 | 9.64 | 10,000 | 96,427 | 433,922 | Form | |
| 5 | Carroll, John A | President & CEO | Trust | Buy | 5062025 | 9.77 | 25,000 | 244,155 | 244,155 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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