Winchester Bancorp (WSBK)
Market Price (3/27/2026): $12.79 | Market Cap: $114.7 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Winchester Bancorp (WSBK)
Market Price (3/27/2026): $12.79Market Cap: $114.7 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 20x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 81x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% | Key risksWSBK key risks include [1] concentrated credit risk in eastern Massachusetts real estate, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 20x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 81x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Key risksWSBK key risks include [1] concentrated credit risk in eastern Massachusetts real estate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Winchester Bancorp reported a substantial increase in net income for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, rising by 187.9% to $1.1 million, or $0.12 per common share, compared to the same quarter in the prior year.
2. The company achieved robust growth in net interest income, which increased by 50.4% to $6.1 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. This was accompanied by a 59 basis point expansion in its net interest margin, reaching 2.51% for the same period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.2% change in WSBK stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.61 | 12.90 | 34.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21 | 23 | 9.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.5% | 6.2% | 79.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 119.7 | 81.4 | -32.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 9 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WSBK | 34.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 9.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.7% | 14.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.5% change in WSBK stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.45 | 12.90 | 36.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 23 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 81.4 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 9 | 5.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WSBK | 36.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 8.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -8.5% | 12.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WSBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | -0.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | -4.7% | 2.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WSBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | -0.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 44.1% | 2.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WSBK Return | - | - | - | - | 12% | 23% | 39% |
| Peers Return | 45% | -13% | -21% | 20% | 14% | 2% | 38% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WSBK Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 36% | 50% | 58% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WSBK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -6% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -21% | -44% | -20% | -15% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HIFS, EBC, INDB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
WSBK has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HIFS, EBC, INDB
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Winchester Bancorp (WSBK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Winchester Bancorp (WSBK):
- A hometown savings bank for Winchester, Massachusetts and nearby areas, much like a smaller, independent Eastern Bank.
- A traditional community bank for eastern Massachusetts, similar to a localized Rockland Trust, focusing on deposits and loans.
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```html- Deposit Services: Accepting funds from the general public through various accounts.
- Residential Real Estate Loans: Providing financing for one- to four-family and multi-family residential properties.
- Commercial Real Estate Loans: Offering loans for the acquisition, development, or refinancing of commercial properties.
- Construction Loans: Supplying capital for the construction of various types of properties.
- Home Equity Loans and Lines of Credit: Providing financing secured by the equity in a homeowner's property.
- Commercial Business Loans: Lending to businesses for operational needs, expansion, or other corporate purposes.
- Consumer Loans: Extending credit to individuals for personal expenses and needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlWinchester Bancorp (WSBK), through its subsidiary Winchester Savings Bank, operates as a financial institution primarily serving customers in Middlesex County and, to a lesser extent, Essex County, Massachusetts.
The company sells its services primarily to individuals and businesses, rather than to other companies in a traditional product sales sense. Its major customer categories are:
- Individuals/Consumers: This category includes members of the general public who seek banking services such as taking deposits, obtaining one- to four-family residential real estate loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, and various consumer loans.
- Businesses/Commercial Entities: This category encompasses various businesses and commercial real estate developers that utilize the bank's services for multi-family residential real estate loans, construction loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial business loans.
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John A. Carroll, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Carroll joined Winchester Savings Bank as President and Chief Executive Officer in January 2022. He has over 20 years of experience in the banking industry. Prior to joining Winchester Savings Bank, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at East Boston Savings Bank from 2012 to December 2021. Before East Boston Savings Bank, he held a similar role with Danvers Bank from 2004 to 2011. East Boston Savings Bank was sold to Rockland Trust Company in 2021.
Elda Heller, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Ms. Heller has held the position of Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer since April 2022. Before joining Winchester Savings Bank in 2014, she spent a decade in the credit union industry, with roles of increasing responsibility, including Vice President of Finance at Metro Credit Union.
Paul V. Cheremka, Senior Vice President and Senior Lender
Mr. Cheremka joined Winchester Savings Bank in July 2022. He previously served as a Vice President and Commercial Lender at North Shore Bank, Reading Cooperative Bank, East Boston Savings Bank, and Bank of New England.
Jillian P. Jurilla, SVP, Consumer & Business Banking
Ms. Jurilla serves as the Senior Vice President of Consumer & Business Banking.
Patrick J. Todd, SVP, Chief Information Officer
Mr. Todd is the Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer.
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Key Risks to Winchester Bancorp (WSBK)
Winchester Bancorp (WSBK) faces several key risks, primarily stemming from its organizational structure, the nature of its lending activities, and broader financial market dynamics.
- Limited Public Shareholder Control and Corporate Governance Exemptions: Winchester Bancorp, MHC, as the mutual holding company, will own 55% of Winchester Bancorp, Inc.'s common stock, allowing it to exercise voting control over virtually all matters presented to stockholders. Public stockholders, owning 43%, will not be able to exercise voting control over most matters. Additionally, as a "controlled company" under Nasdaq Stock Market rules, Winchester Bancorp, Inc. is exempt from certain corporate governance requirements. This includes the requirement for a majority of its board of directors to be independent and for executive compensation and director nominations to be overseen by independent directors. This structure significantly limits the influence of public shareholders and may lead to less independent oversight compared to other publicly traded companies.
- Interest Rate Risk: As a financial institution, Winchester Bancorp's profitability is highly sensitive to changes in market interest rates. The company explicitly states that interest rate risk is its "most significant form of market risk." This is due to its assets, primarily mortgage loans, generally having longer maturities than its liabilities, which largely consist of deposits. Significant and unexpected shifts in interest rates could negatively impact the company's net interest income and capital.
- Concentration in Real Estate Lending: Winchester Bancorp's business primarily involves taking deposits and investing them in various real estate loans, including one- to four-family residential, multi-family residential, construction, and commercial real estate loans. This creates a significant concentration in the real estate market. As of June 30, 2025, multi-family and commercial real estate loans represented 320.3% of Winchester Savings Bank's total capital, indicating a concentration that subjects the company to additional regulatory scrutiny. Downturns in the real estate market, particularly in its primary market areas of Middlesex and Essex Counties in Massachusetts, could lead to increased loan delinquencies and losses, thereby impacting the company's financial condition.
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The clear emerging threat for Winchester Bancorp (WSBK) is the increasing competition from digital-first banks (neobanks) and fintech companies. Winchester Savings Bank operates a traditional model with a main office and four full-service branch offices, focusing on taking deposits and making loans within specific Massachusetts counties. Digital competitors, with lower overhead costs and advanced technological platforms, can offer more competitive interest rates on deposits and loans, along with superior online and mobile banking experiences, potentially attracting customers away from traditional branch-based institutions and eroding Winchester Savings Bank's market share in its primary service areas.
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Winchester Bancorp (NASDAQ: WSBK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies centered on expanding its core banking operations. The expected drivers of future revenue growth for Winchester Bancorp include:- Consistent Growth in Loan Origination and Portfolio Size: The company has demonstrated consistent growth in its net loan portfolio, with increases across various segments such as residential, multi-family, construction, commercial real estate, home equity, commercial business, and consumer loans. This growth is supported by continued strong demand for new originations within its primary lending markets.
- Strategic Expansion of Deposit Base, particularly through the Municipal Channel: Winchester Bancorp has been actively expanding its deposit base, notably by launching a new channel focused on municipal deposits. This initiative has already led to strong deposit growth and is anticipated to continue providing crucial funding for further loan expansion and overall balance sheet growth.
- Net Interest Margin (NIM) Expansion and Optimization: Future revenue will be positively impacted by the bank's ability to expand and optimize its net interest margin. This is achieved through higher yields on its loan and investment securities portfolios, driven by new purchases and strategic restructuring of existing investments, alongside a decrease in average rates paid on interest-bearing deposit accounts.
- Prudent Customer Base Expansion and Market Share Gains: Winchester Bancorp is actively focused on prudently growing its customer base and increasing its market share within its existing and surrounding market areas. This overarching strategy contributes directly to both increased loan originations and a larger, more stable deposit base.
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Share Issuance
- Winchester Bancorp, Inc. completed its initial public offering on April 30, 2025.
- The company sold 3,997,012 shares of common stock at $10.00 per share, resulting in gross proceeds of $39,970,120.
- Net proceeds from the stock offering amounted to $37.8 million, which increased shareholders' equity.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the year ended June 30, 2025, were -$0.3 million.
- In 2024, the company celebrated the grand opening of its fifth branch office in Danvers.
- Winchester Bancorp plans to continue seeking opportunities to expand its branch network.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Winchester Bancorp Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| Rev LTM | 413 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 137 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 237 |
| CFO LTM | 143 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 253 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 45.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 31.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 32.7 |
| P/CFO | 15.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/02/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.10 | $11.10 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.4% | 19.6% |
| Downside Capture | -36.67 | -34.13 |
| Upside Capture | 93.94 | 19.65 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.54 | -0.20 | -0.29 | -0.06 | -0.05 | 0.06 |
| Up Beta | -1.54 | -0.33 | -0.04 | 0.22 | -0.17 | 0.18 |
| Down Beta | -2.18 | -0.39 | -0.49 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Up Capture | 153% | 101% | 73% | 29% | 6% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 23 | 35 | 61 | 97 | 97 |
| Down Capture | -128% | -134% | -152% | -84% | -49% | -31% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 17 | 25 | 52 | 93 | 93 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WSBK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSBK | 37.2% | 19.8% | 1.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | -1.7% | 19.1% | -0.22 | 2.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 18.9% | 0.52 | -1.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 45.0% | 27.5% | 1.34 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.7% | 17.5% | 0.84 | -8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 16.4% | -0.07 | 5.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.7% | 43.9% | -0.35 | -12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WSBK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSBK | 6.5% | 19.8% | 1.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.3% | 18.6% | 0.39 | 2.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.0% | 0.55 | -1.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.8% | 17.6% | 0.92 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | -8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 5.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 56.7% | 0.29 | -12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WSBK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSBK | 3.2% | 19.8% | 1.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.4% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 2.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | -1.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.9% | 15.8% | 0.67 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | -8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 5.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.8% | 1.06 | -12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/28/2026 | 1.3% | 7.6% | 19.1% |
| 10/22/2025 | 1.7% | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2025 | -1.0% | 0.7% | -1.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # Negative | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 0.7% | 10.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.1% | |
| Max Positive | 1.7% | 7.6% | 19.1% |
| Max Negative | -1.0% | -1.1% | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hood, William Preston | Direct | Buy | 6102025 | 9.21 | 1,050 | 9,670 | 470,171 | Form | |
| 2 | Hood, William Preston | Direct | Buy | 5152025 | 9.59 | 5,000 | 47,926 | 479,260 | Form | |
| 3 | Hood, William Preston | Direct | Buy | 5092025 | 9.68 | 10,000 | 96,781 | 338,732 | Form | |
| 4 | Hood, William Preston | Direct | Buy | 5092025 | 9.64 | 10,000 | 96,427 | 433,922 | Form | |
| 5 | Carroll, John A | President & CEO | Trust | Buy | 5062025 | 9.77 | 25,000 | 244,155 | 244,155 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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