Tearsheet

Vertex (VERX)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $19.84 | Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Vertex (VERX)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $19.84
Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.0%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.0%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VERX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the -24.7% stock movement for Vertex (VERX) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. Vertex Inc. lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance. This was initially indicated with the Q2 2025 results and subsequently reiterated at the Goldman Sachs conference on September 11, 2025, where the company cited slower customer growth and elongated ERP migration cycles. This downward revision of revenue expectations continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

2. The company reported mixed third-quarter 2025 financial results. On November 3, 2025, Vertex announced that its Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) beat analyst estimates, but its revenue of $192.1 million fell short of the projected $195.5 million. This revenue miss was explicitly identified as the primary reason for negative market reaction following the earnings release.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VERX Return--54%-9%86%98%-64%-44%
Peers Return13%-2%-7%5%55%897%1587%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VERX Win Rate80%25%33%67%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate13%10%9%30%44%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VERX Max Drawdown--54%-40%-17%-13%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-5%-4%-8%-15%-8%-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVERXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven306.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven771 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-25.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven84 days148 days

Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Vertex's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/19/2021. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Vertex (VERX)

Better Bets than Vertex (VERX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VERX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Vertex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VERXADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameVertex Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Price19.45305.851.272.433.347.515.42
Mkt Cap3.165.10.1---3.1
Rev LTM7326,60527-21,026732
Op Inc LTM-71,5151--0651
FCF LTM551,8471--255155
FCF 3Y Avg481,704---216216
CFO LTM1641,9254--310237
CFO 3Y Avg1341,775---271271

Growth & Margins

VERXADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameVertex Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM13.8%13.8%29.7%--10.6%13.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg15.8%11.7%---10.2%11.7%
Rev Chg Q12.7%17.1%86.2%--12.0%14.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%4.1%19.3%--2.9%3.6%
Op Mgn LTM-1.0%22.9%5.0%--3.8%6.3%5.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.0%21.5%---6.9%6.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%0.8%-0.1%---0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM22.5%29.1%13.5%--30.2%25.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.4%30.7%---29.0%29.0%
FCF/Rev LTM7.6%28.0%4.9%--24.9%16.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.2%29.5%---23.1%23.1%

Valuation

VERXADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameVertex Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Cap3.165.10.1---3.1
P/S5.410.01.8---5.4
P/EBIT-559.746.724.6---24.6
P/E-73.863.235.8---35.8
P/CFO24.034.313.5---24.0
Total Yield-1.4%1.6%2.8%---1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.0%3.3%----2.1%
D/E0.10.00.0---0.0
Net D/E0.00.0-0.2---0.0

Returns

VERXADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameVertex Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
1M Rtn-2.3%1.7%-56.8%6.6%4.7%-7.6%-0.3%
3M Rtn-19.2%-4.4%-54.8%-10.0%-16.5%-65.1%-17.9%
6M Rtn-53.5%2.6%101.5%-19.5%-16.5%-65.1%-18.0%
12M Rtn-65.5%0.5%--24.5%4,413.5%-65.1%-24.5%
3Y Rtn22.3%54.2%--3,304.7%-65.1%38.2%
1M Excs Rtn-3.6%0.4%-58.1%5.3%3.4%-8.9%-1.6%
3M Excs Rtn-24.9%-12.1%-59.3%-15.5%-22.3%-70.9%-23.6%
6M Excs Rtn-69.0%-12.9%86.1%-35.0%-32.0%-80.5%-33.5%
12M Excs Rtn-77.8%-10.3%--36.5%4,658.0%-78.5%-36.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.2%-16.6%--3,217.6%-138.3%-33.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment572    
Services 76675846
Software subscriptions 415358317276
Total572492426375322


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment-13    
Total-13    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,818,308
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-13.4%
Average Daily Volume2,334,341
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.49
Basic Shares Quantity159,446,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021316202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO ANNE MARIE WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 20016182025Sell36.8778,2482,884,72218,426,774Form
1Leib Ryan JChief Accounting Officer5142025Sell38.005,755218,690 Form
2Gayton Bradley M3042025Buy31.82501,5911,214,856Form
3ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 20011232025Sell56.4853,8433,041,05369,428,435Form
4ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 200112112024Sell55.1313,346735,76574,136,288Form