Tearsheet

Vertex (VERX)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $20.465 | Market Cap: $3.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Vertex (VERX)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $20.465
Market Cap: $3.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.0%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
  Key risks
VERX key risks include [1] a slowdown in customer expansion, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.0%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
7 Key risks
VERX key risks include [1] a slowdown in customer expansion, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VERX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -20.8% movement in Vertex (VERX) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Reduced Full-Year 2025 Guidance Following Q2 Earnings: Vertex reduced its full-year 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance during its Q2 2025 earnings call in early August, attributing the revision to macroeconomic factors, extended sales cycles, and delayed customer decision-making. This negatively impacted investor sentiment within the specified period, with some analysts downgrading the stock to "Hold" by mid-August due to the revised outlook and delays in ERP migration.

2. Further Lowered Full-Year 2025 Guidance with Q3 Results: On November 3, 2025, Vertex announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results and once again lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance. The company cited customer bankruptcies and accelerated cloud platform migrations as factors, alongside ongoing client attrition, which resulted in a notable 9.65% decline in the stock on the day of the announcement.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VERX Return-54%-9%86%98%-61%
Peers Return60%28%-28%26%9%0%102%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VERX Win Rate80%25%33%67%50%33% 
Peers Win Rate69%58%31%54%44%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VERX Max Drawdown-54%-40%-17%-13%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-12%-41%-9%-11%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRI, INTU, SSNC, BL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVERXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven306.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven771 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-25.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven84 days148 days

Compare to ADSK, HIT, AIB, BMR, CCC


In The Past

Vertex's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/19/2021. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Vertex (VERX)

Better Bets than Vertex (VERX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VERX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Vertex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VERXTRIINTUSSNCBLMedian
NameVertex Thomson .Intuit SS&C Tec.BlackLine 
Mkt Price20.46132.08660.7886.7657.5586.76
Mkt Cap3.359.4184.421.23.521.2
Rev LTM7327,37619,4336,1486876,148
Op Inc LTM-72,1285,1921,426341,426
FCF LTM551,8226,3531,2981521,298
FCF 3Y Avg481,8695,2841,0981331,098
CFO LTM1642,4596,4821,5881871,588
CFO 3Y Avg1342,4565,4821,3581621,358

Growth & Margins

VERXTRIINTUSSNCBLMedian
NameVertex Thomson .Intuit SS&C Tec.BlackLine 
Rev Chg LTM13.8%3.0%17.1%6.7%7.4%7.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg15.8%3.9%13.5%5.5%11.3%11.3%
Rev Chg Q12.7%3.4%18.3%7.0%7.5%7.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%0.8%3.2%1.7%1.8%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM-1.0%28.9%26.7%23.2%4.9%23.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.0%26.9%24.2%22.6%4.2%22.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%2.3%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM22.5%33.3%33.4%25.8%27.2%27.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.4%34.6%32.3%23.4%25.3%25.3%
FCF/Rev LTM7.6%24.7%32.7%21.1%22.1%22.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.2%26.4%31.1%18.9%20.7%20.7%

Valuation

VERXTRIINTUSSNCBLMedian
NameVertex Thomson .Intuit SS&C Tec.BlackLine 
Mkt Cap3.359.4184.421.23.521.2
P/S5.49.59.53.54.75.4
P/EBIT-559.729.434.015.154.129.4
P/E-73.839.844.825.442.739.8
P/CFO24.028.428.413.617.424.0
Total Yield-1.4%4.0%2.9%5.1%2.3%2.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%0.7%1.2%0.0%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.0%2.8%3.1%6.4%4.0%3.1%
D/E0.10.00.00.30.30.1
Net D/E0.00.00.00.30.00.0

Returns

VERXTRIINTUSSNCBLMedian
NameVertex Thomson .Intuit SS&C Tec.BlackLine 
1M Rtn2.6%-3.7%2.3%7.2%9.6%2.6%
3M Rtn-18.6%-21.6%-0.1%-2.0%4.9%-2.0%
6M Rtn-42.4%-32.1%-12.2%9.8%4.7%-12.2%
12M Rtn-61.7%-19.4%-1.9%15.5%-10.7%-10.7%
3Y Rtn34.7%21.3%75.1%78.5%-16.1%34.7%
1M Excs Rtn1.8%-4.4%1.6%6.5%8.9%1.8%
3M Excs Rtn-21.6%-18.8%-3.3%-3.8%3.1%-3.8%
6M Excs Rtn-54.8%-44.5%-24.6%-2.5%-7.7%-24.6%
12M Excs Rtn-72.0%-31.4%-9.8%3.5%-21.0%-21.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-40.7%-49.2%-4.4%3.1%-85.4%-40.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment572    
Services 76675846
Software subscriptions 415358317276
Total572492426375322


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment-13    
Total-13    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,908,955
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.6%
Average Daily Volume1,225,444
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.82
Basic Shares Quantity159,446,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/21/20251.1%0.0%-23.2%
8/6/2025-18.1%-24.0%-27.2%
2/27/2025-19.0%-22.5%-15.9%
11/6/202413.8%13.8%28.1%
8/7/2024-4.3%1.4%-0.8%
2/29/202432.2%16.7%25.0%
11/9/202321.0%17.1%27.6%
8/9/202310.2%13.6%25.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive9119
# Negative757
Median Positive10.2%10.1%25.0%
Median Negative-7.0%-18.5%-15.9%
Max Positive32.2%22.9%47.0%
Max Negative-19.6%-24.0%-35.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021316202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO ANNE MARIE WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 20016182025Sell36.8778,2482,884,72218,426,774Form
1Leib Ryan JChief Accounting Officer5142025Sell38.005,755218,690 Form
2Gayton Bradley M3042025Buy31.82501,5911,214,856Form
3ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 20011232025Sell56.4853,8433,041,05369,428,435Form
4ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 200112112024Sell55.1313,346735,76574,136,288Form