Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -141 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5020%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 362x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 184%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4368%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4377%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 154%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
6   Key risks
UPB key risks include [1] its singular dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its lead candidate, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -141 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5020%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 362x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 184%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4368%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4377%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 154%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
9 Key risks
UPB key risks include [1] its singular dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its lead candidate, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UPB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Upstream Bio (UPB) experienced a 71.2% stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025, driven by several key developments. 1. Positive Top-Line Results from VIBRANT Phase 2 Trial. Upstream Bio announced positive top-line results from its VIBRANT Phase 2 trial of verekitug in Chronic Rhinosinusitis with Nasal Polyps (CRSwNP) in September 2025. The trial successfully met its primary endpoint and demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful effects on multiple endpoints, including a significant reduction in nasal polyp score and nasal congestion. This outcome reinforced verekitug's differentiated clinical profile, suggesting potential efficacy comparable to or exceeding other available biologics with a less frequent dosing regimen.

2. Stronger-Than-Expected Q3 2025 Financial Performance. On November 5, 2025, Upstream Bio reported its Third Quarter 2025 financial results. The company announced an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.63, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of -$0.78. Additionally, quarterly revenue of $0.68 million also exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.65 million.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UPB Return65%
Peers Return13%16%17%18%-13%18%86%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPB Win Rate0%58% 
Peers Win Rate58%50%54%58%50%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPB Max Drawdown-63% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-9%-7%-11%-14%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMGN, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

UPB has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Upstream Bio (UPB)

Better Bets than Upstream Bio (UPB)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UPB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Upstream Bio

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Mkt Price29.32326.74746.36326.74
Mkt Cap1.6175.877.377.3
Rev LTM335,97114,24814,248
Op Inc LTM-1418,6713,8073,807
FCF LTM-12311,5393,8813,881
FCF 3Y Avg-9,0673,8536,460
CFO LTM-12213,1265,0715,071
CFO 3Y Avg-10,3224,8487,585

Growth & Margins

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Rev Chg LTM26.8%10.6%2.9%10.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.2%1.4%6.3%
Rev Chg Q12.5%12.4%0.9%12.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%3.0%0.2%2.8%
Op Mgn LTM-5,020.1%24.1%26.7%24.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-25.4%30.0%27.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-555.5%0.6%-0.9%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-4,367.8%36.5%35.6%35.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-32.7%35.4%34.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-4,376.7%32.1%27.2%27.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-28.8%28.2%28.5%

Valuation

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Mkt Cap1.6175.877.377.3
P/S362.44.24.14.2
P/EBIT-7.213.711.211.2
P/E-8.321.712.712.7
P/CFO-8.311.611.511.5
Total Yield-12.0%7.9%8.3%7.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.3%0.5%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.9%4.9%5.4%
D/E0.00.40.00.0
Net D/E-0.40.3-0.1-0.1

Returns

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
1M Rtn19.5%-3.0%7.6%7.6%
3M Rtn69.0%20.5%30.0%30.0%
6M Rtn184.4%14.4%47.1%47.1%
12M Rtn54.2%26.6%3.5%26.6%
3Y Rtn-34.5%3.8%19.1%
1M Excs Rtn18.5%-4.0%6.6%6.6%
3M Excs Rtn80.0%16.8%24.6%24.6%
6M Excs Rtn170.7%0.7%33.4%33.4%
12M Excs Rtn31.3%10.7%-11.1%10.7%
3Y Excs Rtn--43.8%-72.8%-58.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory21
Total21


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory-40 
Total-40 


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory-21 
Total-21 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,773,635
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-7.4%
Average Daily Volume541,286
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.12
Basic Shares Quantity53,930,946
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-4.3%-5.0%10.8%
8/6/20257.9%12.9%27.0%
3/12/20257.8%5.6%-23.7%
11/7/20241.7%-2.5%-10.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive322
# Negative122
Median Positive7.8%9.3%18.9%
Median Negative-4.3%-3.8%-17.0%
Max Positive7.9%12.9%27.0%
Max Negative-4.3%-5.0%-23.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024312202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
1231202310112024424B4 12/31/2023