Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -69%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -67%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -160 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5619%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 172x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 362%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4670%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4674%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33%

Key risks
UPB key risks include [1] its singular dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its lead candidate, Show more.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -69%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -67%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -160 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5619%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 172x
6 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 362%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4670%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4674%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33%
9 Key risks
UPB key risks include [1] its singular dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its lead candidate, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstream Bio (UPB) stock has lost about 70% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Market Correction from Peak Valuation: Upstream Bio's stock experienced a significant market correction after reaching an all-time high of $32.60 on January 13, 2026. The subsequent decline of approximately 70% indicates that the market had an overly optimistic valuation, potentially driven by speculative interest ahead of key clinical trial readouts, which investors later re-evaluated.

2. Persistent Financial Losses and Cash Burn Concerns: The company reported a fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of ($0.79), missing consensus estimates, and is projected to incur approximately $172 million in losses for the full year 2026. Although Upstream Bio maintains a cash position of $341.5 million, expected to fund operations through 2027, the rapid consumption of capital for a clinical-stage biotechnology company without commercial products likely raised investor concerns regarding long-term funding and the path to profitability, particularly with the anticipated move into capital-intensive Phase 3 trials.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -70.8% change in UPB stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120265102026Change
Stock Price ($)31.089.09-70.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)332.0%
P/S Multiple598.8172.3-71.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5454-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-70.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPB-70.8% 
Market (SPY)3.6%18.8%
Sector (XLV)-6.9%0.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -64.8% change in UPB stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -66.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120255102026Change
Stock Price ($)25.859.09-64.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)334.8%
P/S Multiple510.5172.3-66.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5454-0.6%
Cumulative Contribution-64.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPB-64.8% 
Market (SPY)5.5%16.6%
Sector (XLV)0.3%5.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.8% change in UPB stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020255102026Change
Stock Price ($)9.269.09-1.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2320.4%
P/S Multiple209.4172.3-17.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5454-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution-1.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPB-1.8% 
Market (SPY)30.4%18.8%
Sector (XLV)4.0%15.3%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPB  
Market (SPY)78.7%21.5%
Sector (XLV)13.0%12.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
UPB Return----25%65%-67%-59%
Peers Return16%17%18%-13%19%-3%61%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%7%95%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPB Win Rate---33%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate50%54%58%50%50%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%60% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPB Max Drawdown----27%-63%-73% 
Peers Max Drawdown-9%-7%-11%-14%-16%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMGN, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventUPBS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-23.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven8 days79 days

Compare to AMGN, REGN

In The Past

Upstream Bio's stock fell -23.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.5% gain to breakeven.

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Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

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EventUPBS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-23.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven8 days79 days

Compare to AMGN, REGN

In The Past

Upstream Bio's stock fell -23.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Upstream Bio (UPB)

We are a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory disorders. We are developing verekitug, the only known antagonist currently in clinical development that targets the receptor for Thymic Stromal Lymphopoietin (“TSLP”), a cytokine which is a clinically validated driver of inflammatory response positioned upstream of multiple signaling cascades that affect a variety of immune mediated diseases. Preclinical and clinical data to date demonstrate verekitug’s highly potent inhibition of the TSLP receptor, which we believe will translate to a differentiated product profile, including improved clinical outcomes, substantially extended dosing intervals and the potential to treat a broad spectrum of patients. We have advanced this highly potent monoclonal antibody into separate Phase 2 trials for the treatment of severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (“CRSwNP”) and plan to initiate development in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (“COPD”). Our experienced team is committed to maximizing verekitug’s unique attributes to address the substantial unmet needs for patients underserved by today’s standard of care. There are six biologics approved for the treatment of severe asthma; three of these are also approved for CRSwNP. One biologic was recently approved for the treatment of COPD. Total estimated biologics sales in 2023 for asthma in the United States, Europe and Japan markets were approximately $7.5 billion. In December 2021, tezepelumab (marketed as Tezspire by Amgen Inc. (“Amgen”) and AstraZeneca PLC (“AstraZeneca”)), a monoclonal antibody targeting the TSLP ligand, not the receptor, was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) as an add-on maintenance treatment for patients with severe asthma. Tezepelumab is the first and only treatment for severe asthma without any phenotype or biomarker limitation, highlighting the benefit of blocking TSLP signaling early in the inflammatory cascade as compared to other biologics’ mechanisms of action which are further downstream. In May 2024, Amgen and AstraZeneca reported Phase 2a proof-of-concept data for tezepelumab for the treatment of moderate to very severe COPD at the American Thoracic Society (“ATS”) International Conference. This trial reported a reduction in the frequency of COPD exacerbations that has supported advancement of tezepelumab into Phase 3 development for COPD. These clinical data further demonstrate the potential for a TSLP targeted therapy to treat a variety of inflammatory diseases. Despite the availability of existing biologics for severe respiratory disease, there remains a high unmet need that limits the utilization of these therapies, including suboptimal symptom control and frequent dosing intervals. Verekitug is, to our knowledge, the only monoclonal antibody currently in clinical development that targets and inhibits the TSLP receptor. In May 2024, we presented full proof-of-concept data from our multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 1b multiple ascending dose (“MAD”) clinical trial in asthma patients demonstrating that dosing with verekitug led to rapid and complete TSLP receptor occupancy, and reductions in fractional exhaled nitric oxide (“FeNO,” a disease-related biomarker) and blood eosinophil levels (“eos,” a disease-related biomarker) that were rapid, substantial and sustained for up to 24 weeks after the last dose. This study also demonstrated that verekitug is approximately 300-fold more potent than tezepelumab (based on published tezepelumab data), which, combined with verekitug’s pharmacokinetic (“PK”) profile, enables an extended dosing interval of up to 24 weeks, compared to tezepelumab (four week dosing interval). Furthermore, clinical data from our Phase 1b MAD trial indicate an approximately 50% greater effect on FeNO than has previously been reported for tezepelumab. We have not conducted head-to-head clinical studies of verekitug against tezepelumab, and note that ongoing and future clinical trials for verekitug may produce differing clinical activity and tolerability results. Three Phase 1 clinical trials have been completed for verekitug across a total of 120 participants, including 32 patients with asthma. In these trials, which were not designed to support formal statistical comparisons, verekitug was well tolerated, demonstrated no evidence of clinically meaningful anti-drug antibodies (“ADAs”), and showed a predictable and consistent PK profile with high subcutaneous bioavailability. Although competitive product candidates may be sponsored by organizations with greater financial resources and expertise to support regulatory approval and market acceptance, we believe verekitug, if approved, will be the preferred biologic for the treatment of severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD based on its extended dosing interval and effect on broadly accepted disease-associated biomarkers. Having established clinical proof-of-concept in asthma, we are currently conducting two separate multi-national, placebo-controlled, randomized Phase 2 clinical trials to investigate the efficacy of two extended dosing intervals of 12 and 24 weeks for patients with severe asthma and 12 weeks for patients with CRSwNP. These trials have been designed using endpoints that, pending interactions with regulatory authorities, could allow data from these trials to support submissions for product approval. Data from these trials are expected in the second half of 2026 for severe asthma and the second half of 2025 for CRSwNP. Based on available data from Phase 1 trials with verekitug, we plan to initiate our first clinical trial in COPD and have commenced planning activities for a Phase 2 clinical trial, including development of a clinical trial protocol and regulatory approval strategy, and expect to dose the first COPD patient in the second half of 2025. Beyond these indications, we believe verekitug has broad potential, and we intend to leverage its unique attributes to develop it as a potential therapy for numerous TSLP-driven diseases. --- Leveraging TSLP biology to address unmet needs in severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD TSLP overview Verekitug is a monoclonal antibody that targets and inhibits the TSLP receptor. TSLP is a member of a class of epithelial cytokines, also including IL-25 and IL-33, commonly referred to as alarmins. TSLP is primarily produced by epithelial cells, especially in the lung, gastrointestinal tract and skin. Dendritic cells, basophils, mast cells, keratinocytes and fibroblasts also produce TSLP with appropriate stimulation. In response to various environmental triggers, including viruses, bacteria, allergens, chemical irritants and physical injury, TSLP can initiate and amplify a wide range of innate and adaptive immune responses, including supporting epithelial barrier function, dendritic cell activation, type 2 innate lymphoid cell activation and survival, immune cell recruitment, induction of type 2 responses and regulation of B cell function. Beyond type 2 inflammation, data also support a role for TSLP in propagating non-type 2 inflammatory processes, including IL-17 production, modulation of airway structural cells and the promotion of fibrosis. As such, TSLP signaling is a central instigator of multiple downstream biologic pathways relevant to human diseases that are characterized by epithelial inflammation, including asthma, CRSwNP and COPD. The TSLP signaling pathway is well-understood as a contributor to disease-driving proinflammatory pathways and is a clinically and commercially validated target for therapeutic development. Historically, development of biologics for severe asthma and related conditions has focused on type 2 inflammatory cytokines that are activated downstream in the TSLP signaling pathway, for instance IL-4, IL-5 and IL-13. However, in addition to its effect on type 2 inflammation, emerging evidence indicates that TSLP also impacts non-type 2 inflammation, which may result in broader downregulation of pathways relevant to the pathogenesis of multiple inflammatory diseases. We believe verekitug has the potential, if approved, to address unmet needs in multiple diseases characterized by TSLP-driven pathobiology due to the high potency and potential for extended dosing intervals that we have observed in our preclinical and clinical development to date. Only one drug targeting the TSLP pathway has been approved for the treatment of severe asthma. In December 2021, tezepelumab (marketed as Tezspire by Amgen and AztraZeneca), a monoclonal antibody targeting the TSLP ligand, was approved by the FDA as an add-on maintenance treatment for patients with severe asthma. Tezepelumab is the first and only treatment for severe asthma without any phenotype or biomarker limitation, highlighting the benefit of blocking TSLP signaling early in the inflammatory cascade as compared to other biologics’ mechanisms of action which are further downstream. In the Phase 3 clinical trial of tezepelumab in adults and adolescents with severe, uncontrolled asthma, patients who received tezepelumab had fewer exacerbations and better lung function, asthma control and health-related quality of life than those who received placebo. Based on pooled safety data from the clinical trials of tezepelumab, Tezspire’s FDA approved label identifies hypersensitivity reactions following administration as a clinically significant adverse reaction, as well as pharyngitis, arthralgia and back pain as additional adverse reactions that occurred at an incidence of greater than or equal to 3% and more common than the placebo group. Furthermore, a Phase 2a clinical trial for tezepelumab in COPD patients, which demonstrated a clinically-significant reduction of COPD exacerbations, the most frequently reported adverse events for tezepelumab were worsening of COPD (12.1%) and incidents of COVID-19 infections (14.5%, trial commenced in July 2019), demonstrating a safety and tolerability profile consistent with that observed for tezepelumab in severe asthma. These clinical data further demonstrate the potential for a TSLP targeted therapy to treat a variety of inflammatory diseases. Severe asthma Asthma is a common respiratory disease characterized by chronic airway inflammation that is often underdiagnosed and under-treated. For some people, asthma can simply be a nuisance, for others it can interfere with daily life and potentially even be life-threatening. Of the more than 25 million Americans living with asthma, it is estimated that 5% to 10% suffer from severe asthma. Severe asthma is defined as asthma that remains uncontrolled despite optimized treatment with high-dose inhaled corticosteroids or that requires high-dosed inhaled corticosteroids to prevent symptoms from becoming uncontrolled. It is estimated that approximately 90% of people with severe asthma are eligible for biologics, but only 440,000 patients are currently treated with biologics, suggesting more than 80% of eligible patients are not being optimally treated. U.S. sales in 2023 of biologics for the treatment of severe asthma is estimated to be approximately $6.0 billion. These statistics show there is a large population of people living with uncontrolled symptoms of severe asthma. Key areas of unmet need for people living with severe asthma include improved control of exacerbations and symptoms and reduced treatment burden (e.g. need for frequent injections). Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) CRSwNP is an inflammatory disease of the upper airway, marked by chronic sinonasal inflammation and the presence of inflammatory polyps in the nasal passages and paranasal sinuses. It is estimated by Sanofi that approximately 900,000 patients in the United States and Europe suffer from CRSwNP. Nasal polyps are associated with significant morbidity and debilitating symptoms; it is estimated that 40% to 45% of people with severe asthma also have CRSwNP and that up to 65% of people with CRSwNP also have asthma, demonstrating a strong association between the two conditions. The current treatment options for patients with CRSwNP are corticosteroids, surgery and, more recently, biologics. Although a treatment option, surgery does not guarantee symptom relief. Even with surgery, many people with CRSwNP remain symptomatic, with the recurrence rate of CRSwNP ranging from 20% to 60% within 18 months to four years and increasing to 79% after 12 years. Recurrence is particularly common for people with severe disease, including those also living with asthma or who have undergone prior surgeries. The recent FDA approvals of biologic treatments for CRSwNP have established a well-understood regulatory pathway and route to commercialization. It is estimated that approximately 200,000 adult patients in the United States, major European markets and Japan with CRSwNP are eligible for biologics. Despite these available treatments, the quality of life studies and post-surgical recurrence rates clearly show that many people with CRSwNP have uncontrolled symptoms that are impacting their daily life and current treatments are not meeting their needs. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) Similar to asthma, COPD is a chronic inflammatory disease that obstructs airflow from the lungs. Chronic inflammation causes structural changes within the lungs, narrowing already small airways and damaging lung parenchyma which causes air sacs to lose functionality and decreases lung elasticity. It is typically caused by long-term exposure to irritants, most often cigarette smoke. People with a history of asthma are also more likely to have COPD. Historically, COPD has been considered to have elements of both type 2 and non-type 2 immune responses. COPD is the third leading cause of death worldwide, causing approximately 3.2 million deaths in 2019. Almost 14.2 million Americans, or 6.5% of the adult population, reported they have been diagnosed with COPD, yet the actual number is likely higher given that more than half of adults with low pulmonary function were not aware that they had COPD. Treatments for COPD are similar to those for asthma and CRSwNP, including inhaled steroids to reduce inflammation in the airways as well as bronchodilator inhalers to relax airways and improve airflow. Oxygen and surgery may also be used for people with severe COPD. Dupilumab (marketed as Dupixent by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.), an interleukin-4 receptor alpha antagonist, is the only biologic approved for the treatment of COPD. Despite available treatments, 60% of all COPD patients report some limitations in their daily activity, with 45% being unable to work and 75% complaining of difficulty climbing stairs. Given the high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with COPD, the currently available medicines are not sufficient to control symptoms or disease progression. Verekitug: Inhibiting TSLP signaling in severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD Verekitug is a novel recombinant fully human immunoglobulin G1 monoclonal antibody that binds to the TSLP receptor and inhibits its signaling. In 2021, we acquired verekitug from Astellas Pharma Inc. (“Astellas”). Astellas discovered the compound and completed preclinical studies and a Phase 1 single ascending dose (“SAD”) trial, providing the early foundational work for our Phase 1b MAD trial. In those preclinical studies, which were not designed to support formal statistical comparisons, verekitug potently inhibited TSLP signaling. Additionally, verekitug inhibited cytokine production from CD4+ T cells, suggesting that it may be effective against type 2 and non-type 2 inflammation. In the Phase 1 SAD trial in 56 healthy volunteers, verekitug demonstrated a favorable safety profile with no drug-related serious treatment-emergent adverse events, dose proportional PK and a pharmacodynamic (“PD”) effect consistent with TSLP antagonism. We have conducted two additional clinical trials of verekitug: a Phase 1b MAD trial in patients with asthma and a Japanese ethnobridging study in healthy volunteers. Across the three clinical trials, we have data from 120 total participants, including 32 patients with asthma. In these trials, verekitug was well tolerated, had no clinically meaningful immunogenicity, and showed a predictable and consistent PK profile with high subcutaneous bioavailability. Our Phase 1b MAD clinical trial, which enrolled 32 adult participants aged 18 to 60 with mild to moderate asthma, established clinical proof-of-concept for verekitug in asthma. In the trial, which was not designed to support formal statistical comparisons, verekitug demonstrated rapid, substantial and sustained target engagement and maintained maximal inhibition of disease-related biomarkers in patients with asthma for up to 24 weeks after the last study dose. Results of the Phase 1b study also demonstrated that verekitug is a potent inhibitor of the TSLP receptor and has the potential for an extending dosing interval compared to currently available treatments. Importantly, the PK/PD modeling that was done based on the preclinical data aligned very closely with these early clinical results, strengthening our understanding of verekitug’s attributes and behavior in humans. We are currently conducting two separate multi-national, placebo-controlled, randomized Phase 2 clinical trials to investigate the efficacy of two extended dosing intervals of 12 and 24 weeks for patients with severe asthma and 12 weeks for patients with CRSwNP. These trials have been designed using endpoints that, pending interactions with regulatory authorities, could allow data from these trials to support submissions for product approval. Data from these trials are expected in the second half of 2026 for severe asthma and the second half of 2025 for CRSwNP. Based on available data from Phase 1 trials with verekitug, we plan to initiate our first clinical trial in COPD and have commenced planning activities for a Phase 2 clinical trial, including development of a clinical trial protocol and regulatory approval strategy, and expect to dose the first COPD patient in the second half of 2025. Beyond these indications, we believe verekitug has broad potential, and we intend to leverage its unique attributes to develop it as a potential therapy for other TSLP-driven diseases. We were incorporated under the laws of the State of Delaware in April 2021 under the name Upstream Bio, Inc. Our principal corporate office is located at 890 Winter Street, Suite 200, Waltham, MA 02451. We have one subsidiary, Upstream Bio Securities Corporation, formed in November 2021 under the laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Upstream Bio:

  • Upstream Bio is developing a drug that aims to be **the 'long-acting Tezspire'**, promising significantly less frequent injections (every 24 weeks) and higher potency for severe asthma and other inflammatory diseases, compared to Amgen and AstraZeneca's Tezspire.
  • Think of them as **a specialized biotech trying to 'one-up' Amgen and AstraZeneca** in the TSLP-targeting space, with a drug designed for superior potency and patient convenience.

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  • Verekitug: A clinical-stage monoclonal antibody designed to inhibit the TSLP receptor for the treatment of inflammatory diseases, including severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstream Bio (UPB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing treatments for inflammatory diseases. The company is currently advancing its lead product candidate, verekitug, through Phase 2 clinical trials for severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and plans to initiate a Phase 2 trial for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

As a clinical-stage company, Upstream Bio does not yet have any commercialized products approved for sale. Therefore, it does not currently have major customers, either other companies or individual patients, from which it derives product revenue. Its current activities are focused on research and development, conducting clinical trials, and pursuing regulatory approvals for its drug candidate, verekitug.

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Rand Sutherland, MD, Chief Executive Officer

Dr. Sutherland has over 25 years of business and clinical experience. He most recently served as CEO of Seeker Biologics and previously as President of Translate Bio, Inc. before its acquisition by Sanofi. Prior to that, Dr. Sutherland held various R&D and medical affairs roles at Sanofi, leading the development of new medicines in Immunology and Rare Diseases and heading global medical affairs for the Specialty Care business unit.

Mike Gray, MBA, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Mr. Gray brings more than 25 years of public-private leadership experience. He was most recently the CFO and COO of Carmot Therapeutics, where he played a role in securing the company's acquisition by Roche in 2024. Before Carmot, he held CFO and COO positions at Imara and Arsanis, assisting both companies with initial public offerings and organizational development.

Aaron Deykin, MD, Chief Medical Officer & Head of R&D

Dr. Deykin leads Upstream Bio's clinical development activities and strategy. Before joining Upstream, he was Senior Vice President and Head of Clinical Sciences at Biogen, overseeing clinical development in immunology, fibrosis, and neurology. He also previously served as Assistant Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School and was a faculty member at Brigham and Women's Hospital.

Adam Houghton, PhD, Chief Business Officer

Dr. Houghton is responsible for Business Development and Pipeline Strategy at Upstream Bio. Prior to this role, he was Vice President, Corporate Strategy, and Head of AbbVie Ventures, AbbVie's corporate venture investment group. He has also led Search and Evaluation teams at AbbVie, Biogen, and Eli Lilly, contributing significantly to major licensing and acquisition deals in Immunology and Neuroscience.

Stacy Price, MS, PMP, Chief Technology Officer

Ms. Price has served as Chief Technology Officer of Upstream Bio since May 2025, overseeing the company's technical operations and product development. She has over 25 years of leadership experience in technical operations within the biotechnology industry, having previously served as Chief Technology and Manufacturing Officer at Invivyd.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Risk of Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval: Upstream Bio's success is entirely dependent on the successful outcome of its ongoing and planned Phase 2 clinical trials for verekitug in severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), as well as subsequent regulatory approvals. The company explicitly states that "ongoing and future clinical trials for verekitug may produce differing clinical activity and tolerability results" and that the trial designs "pending interactions with regulatory authorities, could allow data from these trials to support submissions for product approval," indicating that approval is not guaranteed. Failure to demonstrate efficacy, safety, or to receive regulatory clearance would severely impact the company's business prospects.

Competition from Established Therapies and Companies: Verekitug faces significant competition, particularly from tezepelumab (Tezspire), which is already approved for severe asthma and is marketed by large pharmaceutical companies, Amgen Inc. and AstraZeneca PLC, with greater financial resources and expertise. Tezepelumab also targets the TSLP pathway and is advancing in Phase 3 development for COPD. Additionally, there are six other biologics approved for severe asthma, three of which are also approved for CRSwNP, and dupilumab is approved for COPD, creating a crowded market. Upstream Bio has not conducted head-to-head clinical studies against tezepelumab, and its claims of differentiation, such as higher potency and extended dosing, would need to be convincingly demonstrated to gain market share against established players.

Dependence on a Single Product Candidate: Upstream Bio's business is currently focused solely on the development and potential commercialization of verekitug. The company's entire value and future prospects are tied to the success of this single monoclonal antibody across its target indications. Any setbacks, failures, or unexpected issues related to verekitug in clinical development, regulatory approval, or commercialization would have a profound and potentially catastrophic impact on the company.

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The rapid advancement of tezepelumab (marketed as Tezspire by Amgen and AstraZeneca) into Phase 3 clinical development for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) following positive Phase 2a data, positioning a well-resourced competitor significantly ahead of Upstream Bio's planned Phase 2 initiation for verekitug in COPD in the second half of 2025.

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Upstream Bio's addressable markets for its main product, verekitug, are as follows:
  • The estimated biologics sales for asthma in the United States, Europe, and Japan markets were approximately $7.5 billion in 2023.
  • The estimated U.S. sales of biologics for the treatment of severe asthma were approximately $6.0 billion in 2023.

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Upstream Bio (UPB)

  • **Potential Market Entry in Chronic Rhinosinusitis with Nasal Polyps (CRSwNP):** Upstream Bio anticipates data from its Phase 2 clinical trial for verekitug in CRSwNP during the second half of 2025. Successful trial outcomes and subsequent regulatory approval would pave the way for market entry within the next 2-3 years, targeting a significant patient population in the United States, Europe, and Japan.
  • **Potential Market Entry in Severe Asthma:** Data from the multi-national, placebo-controlled, randomized Phase 2 clinical trials for verekitug in severe asthma are expected in the second half of 2026. Positive results and regulatory approval would allow Upstream Bio to enter the substantial severe asthma market, which had estimated biologics sales of approximately $6.0 billion in the U.S. in 2023.
  • **Expansion into the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Market:** Upstream Bio plans to initiate its first clinical trial in COPD, with the first patient expected to be dosed in the second half of 2025. This strategic move into the large COPD market, where only one biologic is currently approved, represents a significant long-term revenue growth opportunity, with early phase success potentially driving valuation within the 2-3 year timeframe.
  • **Differentiated Product Profile of Verekitug:** Verekitug's highly potent inhibition of the TSLP receptor and its potential for substantially extended dosing intervals (up to 24 weeks compared to competitors) are expected to be key drivers of market adoption and share capture once approved. This differentiated profile is anticipated to translate into improved clinical outcomes and a preferred treatment option for patients in severe asthma, CRSwNP, and eventually COPD, accelerating revenue growth.

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Outbound Investments

  • In 2021, Upstream Bio acquired verekitug from Astellas Pharma Inc.

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to UPB.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEHC_4302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302026GEHCGE HealthCare TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
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IQV_4302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302026IQVIQVIADip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
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UHS_4302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302026UHSUniversal Health ServicesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
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ABT_4302026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302026ABTAbbott LaboratoriesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
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ZBIO_4302026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K04302026ZBIOZenas BioPharmaInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Mkt Price9.09331.70714.89331.70
Mkt Cap0.5179.174.374.3
Rev LTM337,22014,92014,920
Op Inc LTM-16010,5683,8433,843
FCF LTM-1338,5973,7913,791
FCF 3Y Avg-8,8703,5616,215
CFO LTM-13310,7565,0135,013
CFO 3Y Avg-10,3484,5687,458

Growth & Margins

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Rev Chg LTM20.4%9.1%5.9%9.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-12.5%6.4%9.5%
Rev Chg Q9.0%5.8%19.0%9.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%1.3%4.0%2.0%
Op Inc Chg LTM-106.2%41.9%-2.4%-2.4%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-8.8%-6.3%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM-5,618.8%28.4%25.8%25.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-24.6%28.1%26.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-598.7%3.7%-0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-4,669.8%28.9%33.6%28.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-30.7%32.6%31.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-4,673.9%23.1%25.4%23.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-26.4%25.5%25.9%

Valuation

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Mkt Cap0.5179.174.374.3
P/S172.34.85.05.0
P/Op Inc-3.116.919.316.9
P/EBIT-3.115.214.314.3
P/E-3.423.016.816.8
P/CFO-3.716.714.814.8
Total Yield-29.2%7.3%6.5%6.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.9%0.5%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.2%4.3%4.8%
D/E0.00.30.00.0
Net D/E-0.70.3-0.1-0.1

Returns

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
1M Rtn-13.3%-5.5%-4.5%-5.5%
3M Rtn-65.3%-13.1%-8.9%-13.1%
6M Rtn-60.4%5.1%9.0%5.1%
12M Rtn3.1%28.7%36.2%28.7%
3Y Rtn-58.7%56.9%-3.5%-3.5%
1M Excs Rtn-21.2%-15.1%-15.3%-15.3%
3M Excs Rtn-72.0%-19.8%-15.6%-19.8%
6M Excs Rtn-70.9%-3.7%2.4%-3.7%
12M Excs Rtn-25.4%-7.4%-3.2%-7.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-139.6%-22.0%-91.3%-91.3%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory21
Total21


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory-40 
Total-40 


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory-21 
Total-21 


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$9.09 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.5 
First Trading Date10/11/2024 
Distance from 52W High-72.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$9.15$20.33
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-0.6%-55.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility135.0%92.6%
Downside Capture2.640.93
Upside Capture-67.83131.92
Correlation (SPY)16.5%19.2%
UPB Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.031.461.641.241.400.19
Up Beta0.21-0.112.152.271.770.21
Down Beta13.283.221.130.780.74-0.60
Up Capture95%232%-60%-10%154%21%
Bmk +ve Days15223166141428
Stock +ve Days11233062131193
Down Capture543%135%335%191%148%101%
Bmk -ve Days4183056108321
Stock -ve Days10183260117188

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPB
UPB7.4%92.6%0.56-
Sector ETF (XLV)7.9%15.4%0.3014.3%
Equity (SPY)29.0%12.5%1.8319.2%
Gold (GLD)39.8%27.0%1.224.2%
Commodities (DBC)50.6%18.0%2.21-1.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.0%13.5%0.663.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-17.4%42.1%-0.3413.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPB
UPB-16.0%94.0%-0.12-
Sector ETF (XLV)4.9%14.6%0.1612.9%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5921.5%
Gold (GLD)20.9%17.9%0.957.0%
Commodities (DBC)13.8%19.1%0.590.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.4%18.8%0.0812.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.0%56.0%0.3418.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPB
UPB-8.3%94.0%-0.12-
Sector ETF (XLV)9.3%16.5%0.4612.9%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.7221.5%
Gold (GLD)13.4%15.9%0.697.0%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%17.8%0.440.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.8%20.7%0.2412.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.8%66.9%1.0718.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3312026-12.0%
Average Daily Volume0.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity54.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/11/2026-47.2%-70.2%-66.1%
11/5/2025-4.3%-5.0%10.8%
8/6/20257.9%12.9%27.0%
3/12/20257.8%5.6%-23.7%
11/7/20241.7%-2.5%-10.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive322
# Negative233
Median Positive7.8%9.3%18.9%
Median Negative-25.7%-5.0%-23.7%
Max Positive7.9%12.9%27.0%
Max Negative-47.2%-70.2%-66.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202503/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202403/12/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202410/11/2024424B4

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/26/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2027 Cash Runway 341.50 Mil -8.3% Lower NewActual: 372.40 Mil for 2027

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2027 Cash Runway      

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gray, MichaelCFO and COODirectSell31720269.298527,915275,430Form
2Deykin, AaronChief Medical OfficerDirectSell31720269.298948,305303,662Form
3Sutherland, Everett RandChief Executive OfficerDirectSell31720269.292,09319,444677,306Form
4Ambrose, AllisonGeneral CounselDirectSell31720269.294754,413153,517Form
5Houghton, AdamChief Business OfficerDirectSell31720269.296996,494225,756Form