Tearsheet

Upstream Bio (UPB)


Market Price (2/4/2026): $30.84 | Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Upstream Bio (UPB)


Market Price (2/4/2026): $30.84
Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -0.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -30%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -141 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5020%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 593x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 210%
3   Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 354%
4   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4368%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4377%
5   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 60%
6   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
7   Key risks
UPB key risks include [1] its singular dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its lead candidate, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -0.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -30%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -141 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5020%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 593x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 210%
6 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 354%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4368%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4377%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 60%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
10 Key risks
UPB key risks include [1] its singular dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its lead candidate, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstream Bio (UPB) stock has gained about 20% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Positive Results from VIBRANT Phase 2 Trial for CRSwNP. Upstream Bio reported positive top-line results from its VIBRANT Phase 2 trial for verekitug in chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) in September 2025. The trial demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful effects on multiple endpoints, suggesting that verekitug could meet or exceed the efficacy of other biologics in this condition.

2. Anticipation of VALIANT Phase 2 Trial Results in Severe Asthma. Investor optimism was fueled by the expectation of top-line results from the VALIANT Phase 2 trial in severe asthma, which the company confirmed was on track for the first quarter of 2026. This upcoming data readout was highlighted as a significant potential upside catalyst by analysts.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 19.1% change in UPB stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252032026Change
Stock Price ($)25.8530.7919.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)332.8%
P/S Multiple510.5593.316.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5454-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution19.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPB19.1% 
Market (SPY)1.1%12.1%
Sector (XLV)6.8%8.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 101.1% change in UPB stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120252032026Change
Stock Price ($)15.3130.79101.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)30.0%
P/S Multiple593.30.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5154-4.8%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPB101.1% 
Market (SPY)9.4%10.0%
Sector (XLV)18.7%14.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 185.9% change in UPB stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120252032026Change
Stock Price ($)10.7730.79185.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)30.0%
P/S Multiple593.30.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3654-32.6%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPB185.9% 
Market (SPY)15.6%18.9%
Sector (XLV)6.3%17.4%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPB  
Market (SPY)75.9%23.3%
Sector (XLV)20.9%16.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
UPB Return----25%65%10%36%
Peers Return16%17%18%-13%19%2%69%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%2%86%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPB Win Rate---33%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%54%58%50%50%75% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPB Max Drawdown----27%-63%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-9%-7%-11%-14%-16%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMGN, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/3/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

UPB has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,100 days1,480 days

Compare to AMGN, REGN

In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Upstream Bio (UPB)

We are a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory disorders. We are developing verekitug, the only known antagonist currently in clinical development that targets the receptor for Thymic Stromal Lymphopoietin (“TSLP”), a cytokine which is a clinically validated driver of inflammatory response positioned upstream of multiple signaling cascades that affect a variety of immune mediated diseases. Preclinical and clinical data to date demonstrate verekitug’s highly potent inhibition of the TSLP receptor, which we believe will translate to a differentiated product profile, including improved clinical outcomes, substantially extended dosing intervals and the potential to treat a broad spectrum of patients. We have advanced this highly potent monoclonal antibody into separate Phase 2 trials for the treatment of severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (“CRSwNP”) and plan to initiate development in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (“COPD”). Our experienced team is committed to maximizing verekitug’s unique attributes to address the substantial unmet needs for patients underserved by today’s standard of care. There are six biologics approved for the treatment of severe asthma; three of these are also approved for CRSwNP. One biologic was recently approved for the treatment of COPD. Total estimated biologics sales in 2023 for asthma in the United States, Europe and Japan markets were approximately $7.5 billion. In December 2021, tezepelumab (marketed as Tezspire by Amgen Inc. (“Amgen”) and AstraZeneca PLC (“AstraZeneca”)), a monoclonal antibody targeting the TSLP ligand, not the receptor, was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) as an add-on maintenance treatment for patients with severe asthma. Tezepelumab is the first and only treatment for severe asthma without any phenotype or biomarker limitation, highlighting the benefit of blocking TSLP signaling early in the inflammatory cascade as compared to other biologics’ mechanisms of action which are further downstream. In May 2024, Amgen and AstraZeneca reported Phase 2a proof-of-concept data for tezepelumab for the treatment of moderate to very severe COPD at the American Thoracic Society (“ATS”) International Conference. This trial reported a reduction in the frequency of COPD exacerbations that has supported advancement of tezepelumab into Phase 3 development for COPD. These clinical data further demonstrate the potential for a TSLP targeted therapy to treat a variety of inflammatory diseases. Despite the availability of existing biologics for severe respiratory disease, there remains a high unmet need that limits the utilization of these therapies, including suboptimal symptom control and frequent dosing intervals. Verekitug is, to our knowledge, the only monoclonal antibody currently in clinical development that targets and inhibits the TSLP receptor. In May 2024, we presented full proof-of-concept data from our multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 1b multiple ascending dose (“MAD”) clinical trial in asthma patients demonstrating that dosing with verekitug led to rapid and complete TSLP receptor occupancy, and reductions in fractional exhaled nitric oxide (“FeNO,” a disease-related biomarker) and blood eosinophil levels (“eos,” a disease-related biomarker) that were rapid, substantial and sustained for up to 24 weeks after the last dose. This study also demonstrated that verekitug is approximately 300-fold more potent than tezepelumab (based on published tezepelumab data), which, combined with verekitug’s pharmacokinetic (“PK”) profile, enables an extended dosing interval of up to 24 weeks, compared to tezepelumab (four week dosing interval). Furthermore, clinical data from our Phase 1b MAD trial indicate an approximately 50% greater effect on FeNO than has previously been reported for tezepelumab. We have not conducted head-to-head clinical studies of verekitug against tezepelumab, and note that ongoing and future clinical trials for verekitug may produce differing clinical activity and tolerability results. Three Phase 1 clinical trials have been completed for verekitug across a total of 120 participants, including 32 patients with asthma. In these trials, which were not designed to support formal statistical comparisons, verekitug was well tolerated, demonstrated no evidence of clinically meaningful anti-drug antibodies (“ADAs”), and showed a predictable and consistent PK profile with high subcutaneous bioavailability. Although competitive product candidates may be sponsored by organizations with greater financial resources and expertise to support regulatory approval and market acceptance, we believe verekitug, if approved, will be the preferred biologic for the treatment of severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD based on its extended dosing interval and effect on broadly accepted disease-associated biomarkers. Having established clinical proof-of-concept in asthma, we are currently conducting two separate multi-national, placebo-controlled, randomized Phase 2 clinical trials to investigate the efficacy of two extended dosing intervals of 12 and 24 weeks for patients with severe asthma and 12 weeks for patients with CRSwNP. These trials have been designed using endpoints that, pending interactions with regulatory authorities, could allow data from these trials to support submissions for product approval. Data from these trials are expected in the second half of 2026 for severe asthma and the second half of 2025 for CRSwNP. Based on available data from Phase 1 trials with verekitug, we plan to initiate our first clinical trial in COPD and have commenced planning activities for a Phase 2 clinical trial, including development of a clinical trial protocol and regulatory approval strategy, and expect to dose the first COPD patient in the second half of 2025. Beyond these indications, we believe verekitug has broad potential, and we intend to leverage its unique attributes to develop it as a potential therapy for numerous TSLP-driven diseases. --- Leveraging TSLP biology to address unmet needs in severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD TSLP overview Verekitug is a monoclonal antibody that targets and inhibits the TSLP receptor. TSLP is a member of a class of epithelial cytokines, also including IL-25 and IL-33, commonly referred to as alarmins. TSLP is primarily produced by epithelial cells, especially in the lung, gastrointestinal tract and skin. Dendritic cells, basophils, mast cells, keratinocytes and fibroblasts also produce TSLP with appropriate stimulation. In response to various environmental triggers, including viruses, bacteria, allergens, chemical irritants and physical injury, TSLP can initiate and amplify a wide range of innate and adaptive immune responses, including supporting epithelial barrier function, dendritic cell activation, type 2 innate lymphoid cell activation and survival, immune cell recruitment, induction of type 2 responses and regulation of B cell function. Beyond type 2 inflammation, data also support a role for TSLP in propagating non-type 2 inflammatory processes, including IL-17 production, modulation of airway structural cells and the promotion of fibrosis. As such, TSLP signaling is a central instigator of multiple downstream biologic pathways relevant to human diseases that are characterized by epithelial inflammation, including asthma, CRSwNP and COPD. The TSLP signaling pathway is well-understood as a contributor to disease-driving proinflammatory pathways and is a clinically and commercially validated target for therapeutic development. Historically, development of biologics for severe asthma and related conditions has focused on type 2 inflammatory cytokines that are activated downstream in the TSLP signaling pathway, for instance IL-4, IL-5 and IL-13. However, in addition to its effect on type 2 inflammation, emerging evidence indicates that TSLP also impacts non-type 2 inflammation, which may result in broader downregulation of pathways relevant to the pathogenesis of multiple inflammatory diseases. We believe verekitug has the potential, if approved, to address unmet needs in multiple diseases characterized by TSLP-driven pathobiology due to the high potency and potential for extended dosing intervals that we have observed in our preclinical and clinical development to date. Only one drug targeting the TSLP pathway has been approved for the treatment of severe asthma. In December 2021, tezepelumab (marketed as Tezspire by Amgen and AztraZeneca), a monoclonal antibody targeting the TSLP ligand, was approved by the FDA as an add-on maintenance treatment for patients with severe asthma. Tezepelumab is the first and only treatment for severe asthma without any phenotype or biomarker limitation, highlighting the benefit of blocking TSLP signaling early in the inflammatory cascade as compared to other biologics’ mechanisms of action which are further downstream. In the Phase 3 clinical trial of tezepelumab in adults and adolescents with severe, uncontrolled asthma, patients who received tezepelumab had fewer exacerbations and better lung function, asthma control and health-related quality of life than those who received placebo. Based on pooled safety data from the clinical trials of tezepelumab, Tezspire’s FDA approved label identifies hypersensitivity reactions following administration as a clinically significant adverse reaction, as well as pharyngitis, arthralgia and back pain as additional adverse reactions that occurred at an incidence of greater than or equal to 3% and more common than the placebo group. Furthermore, a Phase 2a clinical trial for tezepelumab in COPD patients, which demonstrated a clinically-significant reduction of COPD exacerbations, the most frequently reported adverse events for tezepelumab were worsening of COPD (12.1%) and incidents of COVID-19 infections (14.5%, trial commenced in July 2019), demonstrating a safety and tolerability profile consistent with that observed for tezepelumab in severe asthma. These clinical data further demonstrate the potential for a TSLP targeted therapy to treat a variety of inflammatory diseases. Severe asthma Asthma is a common respiratory disease characterized by chronic airway inflammation that is often underdiagnosed and under-treated. For some people, asthma can simply be a nuisance, for others it can interfere with daily life and potentially even be life-threatening. Of the more than 25 million Americans living with asthma, it is estimated that 5% to 10% suffer from severe asthma. Severe asthma is defined as asthma that remains uncontrolled despite optimized treatment with high-dose inhaled corticosteroids or that requires high-dosed inhaled corticosteroids to prevent symptoms from becoming uncontrolled. It is estimated that approximately 90% of people with severe asthma are eligible for biologics, but only 440,000 patients are currently treated with biologics, suggesting more than 80% of eligible patients are not being optimally treated. U.S. sales in 2023 of biologics for the treatment of severe asthma is estimated to be approximately $6.0 billion. These statistics show there is a large population of people living with uncontrolled symptoms of severe asthma. Key areas of unmet need for people living with severe asthma include improved control of exacerbations and symptoms and reduced treatment burden (e.g. need for frequent injections). Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) CRSwNP is an inflammatory disease of the upper airway, marked by chronic sinonasal inflammation and the presence of inflammatory polyps in the nasal passages and paranasal sinuses. It is estimated by Sanofi that approximately 900,000 patients in the United States and Europe suffer from CRSwNP. Nasal polyps are associated with significant morbidity and debilitating symptoms; it is estimated that 40% to 45% of people with severe asthma also have CRSwNP and that up to 65% of people with CRSwNP also have asthma, demonstrating a strong association between the two conditions. The current treatment options for patients with CRSwNP are corticosteroids, surgery and, more recently, biologics. Although a treatment option, surgery does not guarantee symptom relief. Even with surgery, many people with CRSwNP remain symptomatic, with the recurrence rate of CRSwNP ranging from 20% to 60% within 18 months to four years and increasing to 79% after 12 years. Recurrence is particularly common for people with severe disease, including those also living with asthma or who have undergone prior surgeries. The recent FDA approvals of biologic treatments for CRSwNP have established a well-understood regulatory pathway and route to commercialization. It is estimated that approximately 200,000 adult patients in the United States, major European markets and Japan with CRSwNP are eligible for biologics. Despite these available treatments, the quality of life studies and post-surgical recurrence rates clearly show that many people with CRSwNP have uncontrolled symptoms that are impacting their daily life and current treatments are not meeting their needs. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) Similar to asthma, COPD is a chronic inflammatory disease that obstructs airflow from the lungs. Chronic inflammation causes structural changes within the lungs, narrowing already small airways and damaging lung parenchyma which causes air sacs to lose functionality and decreases lung elasticity. It is typically caused by long-term exposure to irritants, most often cigarette smoke. People with a history of asthma are also more likely to have COPD. Historically, COPD has been considered to have elements of both type 2 and non-type 2 immune responses. COPD is the third leading cause of death worldwide, causing approximately 3.2 million deaths in 2019. Almost 14.2 million Americans, or 6.5% of the adult population, reported they have been diagnosed with COPD, yet the actual number is likely higher given that more than half of adults with low pulmonary function were not aware that they had COPD. Treatments for COPD are similar to those for asthma and CRSwNP, including inhaled steroids to reduce inflammation in the airways as well as bronchodilator inhalers to relax airways and improve airflow. Oxygen and surgery may also be used for people with severe COPD. Dupilumab (marketed as Dupixent by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.), an interleukin-4 receptor alpha antagonist, is the only biologic approved for the treatment of COPD. Despite available treatments, 60% of all COPD patients report some limitations in their daily activity, with 45% being unable to work and 75% complaining of difficulty climbing stairs. Given the high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with COPD, the currently available medicines are not sufficient to control symptoms or disease progression. Verekitug: Inhibiting TSLP signaling in severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD Verekitug is a novel recombinant fully human immunoglobulin G1 monoclonal antibody that binds to the TSLP receptor and inhibits its signaling. In 2021, we acquired verekitug from Astellas Pharma Inc. (“Astellas”). Astellas discovered the compound and completed preclinical studies and a Phase 1 single ascending dose (“SAD”) trial, providing the early foundational work for our Phase 1b MAD trial. In those preclinical studies, which were not designed to support formal statistical comparisons, verekitug potently inhibited TSLP signaling. Additionally, verekitug inhibited cytokine production from CD4+ T cells, suggesting that it may be effective against type 2 and non-type 2 inflammation. In the Phase 1 SAD trial in 56 healthy volunteers, verekitug demonstrated a favorable safety profile with no drug-related serious treatment-emergent adverse events, dose proportional PK and a pharmacodynamic (“PD”) effect consistent with TSLP antagonism. We have conducted two additional clinical trials of verekitug: a Phase 1b MAD trial in patients with asthma and a Japanese ethnobridging study in healthy volunteers. Across the three clinical trials, we have data from 120 total participants, including 32 patients with asthma. In these trials, verekitug was well tolerated, had no clinically meaningful immunogenicity, and showed a predictable and consistent PK profile with high subcutaneous bioavailability. Our Phase 1b MAD clinical trial, which enrolled 32 adult participants aged 18 to 60 with mild to moderate asthma, established clinical proof-of-concept for verekitug in asthma. In the trial, which was not designed to support formal statistical comparisons, verekitug demonstrated rapid, substantial and sustained target engagement and maintained maximal inhibition of disease-related biomarkers in patients with asthma for up to 24 weeks after the last study dose. Results of the Phase 1b study also demonstrated that verekitug is a potent inhibitor of the TSLP receptor and has the potential for an extending dosing interval compared to currently available treatments. Importantly, the PK/PD modeling that was done based on the preclinical data aligned very closely with these early clinical results, strengthening our understanding of verekitug’s attributes and behavior in humans. We are currently conducting two separate multi-national, placebo-controlled, randomized Phase 2 clinical trials to investigate the efficacy of two extended dosing intervals of 12 and 24 weeks for patients with severe asthma and 12 weeks for patients with CRSwNP. These trials have been designed using endpoints that, pending interactions with regulatory authorities, could allow data from these trials to support submissions for product approval. Data from these trials are expected in the second half of 2026 for severe asthma and the second half of 2025 for CRSwNP. Based on available data from Phase 1 trials with verekitug, we plan to initiate our first clinical trial in COPD and have commenced planning activities for a Phase 2 clinical trial, including development of a clinical trial protocol and regulatory approval strategy, and expect to dose the first COPD patient in the second half of 2025. Beyond these indications, we believe verekitug has broad potential, and we intend to leverage its unique attributes to develop it as a potential therapy for other TSLP-driven diseases. We were incorporated under the laws of the State of Delaware in April 2021 under the name Upstream Bio, Inc. Our principal corporate office is located at 890 Winter Street, Suite 200, Waltham, MA 02451. We have one subsidiary, Upstream Bio Securities Corporation, formed in November 2021 under the laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstream Bio (UPB) Analogies:

  • An early-stage Regeneron for immunology and inflammation.
  • A clinical-stage Amgen specializing in therapies for allergic diseases.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • UPB-101: A clinical-stage investigational monoclonal antibody designed to inhibit the TSLP receptor for the treatment of inflammatory and allergic diseases, with an initial focus on asthma.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstream Bio (symbol: UPB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of new therapeutics for patients with inflammatory and allergic diseases.

As a clinical-stage company, Upstream Bio is currently in the research and development phase for its drug candidates, such as UPB-101. Consequently, it has not yet commercialized any products or services and therefore does not have major customers in the traditional sense of entities or individuals purchasing their offerings.

The company's operations are primarily funded through equity financing (investments from institutional and individual investors) rather than through product sales or service revenue. While future plans for a company like Upstream Bio typically involve potential partnerships or licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies upon successful drug development and regulatory approval, these are not current customer relationships generating revenue from product sales.

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Rand Sutherland, MD, Chief Executive Officer

Dr. Sutherland brings over 25 years of business and clinical experience to Upstream Bio. He most recently served as CEO of Seeker Biologics and was President of Translate Bio prior to its acquisition by Sanofi. Earlier in his career, he held various R&D and medical affairs leadership roles at Sanofi, focusing on developing novel medicines in Immunology and Rare Diseases. He also serves as an independent director for Krystal Biotech and Vanqua Bio.

Mike Gray, MBA, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Mr. Gray leads Upstream Bio's financial strategy and daily operations, with more than 25 years of public-private leadership experience. He previously served as CFO and COO of Carmot Therapeutics, which was acquired by Roche in 2024. Before that, he was CFO and COO of Imara and Arsanis, where he was involved in completing initial public offerings and building these organizations. Mr. Gray also held leadership positions at Curis and served on the Board of Directors of Therapeutics Acquisition Corporation. He earned his MBA from the F.W. Olin Graduate School of Business at Babson College.

Aaron Deykin, MD, Chief Medical Officer & Head of R&D

Dr. Deykin oversees Upstream Bio's development vision, clinical expertise, translational science, and regulatory strategy. Prior to joining Upstream Bio in 2022, he held multiple leadership roles at Biogen for over 15 years, including Senior Vice President of Clinical Sciences, where he managed Biostatistics, Statistical Programming, Biomarkers, Clinical Pharmacology, Epidemiology, and Clinical Operations globally. He also served as an Assistant Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School and was a member of the Pulmonary and Critical Care faculty at Brigham and Women's Hospital, where he directed the Pulmonary Function Testing Laboratory and was Associate Director of the Asthma Research Center.

Lisa Fiering, Senior Vice President, People & Culture

Ms. Fiering brings 30 years of experience in people and culture roles, with the last 20 years in life sciences companies such as Genzyme, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Keryx, and Trillium. She has extensive experience in developing talent and organizational effectiveness. Since 2022, she has also provided strategic consulting to early-stage biotech companies to build their people and culture functions.

Adam Houghton, PhD, Chief Business Officer

Dr. Houghton is responsible for Business Development and Pipeline Strategy at Upstream Bio. Before joining Upstream, he was Vice President, Corporate Strategy, and Head of AbbVie Ventures, AbbVie's corporate venture investment group. He also led several Search and Evaluation teams at AbbVie, Biogen, and Eli Lilly, contributing to major licensing and acquisition deals in Immunology and Neuroscience.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Upstream Bio's (UPB) business are primarily associated with the inherent challenges faced by clinical-stage biotechnology companies.

  1. Clinical Trial Outcomes and Regulatory Hurdles: As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, Upstream Bio's success hinges on the successful development and regulatory approval of its lead product candidate, verekitug. Positive early-phase clinical trial results do not guarantee success in later stages, and the company must navigate lengthy and costly FDA and international regulatory pathways.
  2. Financial Constraints and Need for Additional Capital: Upstream Bio has a limited operating history and has incurred significant financial losses since its inception, with expectations of continued losses in the foreseeable future. The company's operations and development programs are heavily reliant on proceeds from its initial public offering and potential future funding rounds. Recent widening net losses and a universal shelf registration filing indicate a pursuit of new funding, which could lead to dilution risk for existing shareholders.
  3. Competition: Upstream Bio operates in a highly competitive pharmaceutical industry. While verekitug, a monoclonal antibody targeting the TSLP receptor, is positioned as a first-in-class treatment, several biologics are already approved for severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Competitors in this space may possess significantly greater financial resources and expertise.

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Upstream Bio's main product, verekitug (also known as UPB-101), is a monoclonal antibody targeting the TSLP receptor, which is being developed for several inflammatory diseases with an initial focus on severe respiratory disorders.

The addressable markets for verekitug's main product candidates are:

  • Chronic Rhinosinusitis with Nasal Polyps (CRSwNP): The global market for Chronic Rhinosinusitis with Nasal Polyps is projected to grow from approximately USD 3.54 billion in 2023 to about USD 5.78 billion by 2031.
  • Severe Asthma: The market opportunity for biologics targeting asthma across the U.S., Europe, and Japan was approximately USD 7.5 billion in 2023. The global biologic market for treatments like verekitug is estimated to be over USD 7.5 billion.
  • Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Upstream Bio (UPB) over the next 2-3 years:
  1. Successful Commercialization of Verekitug in Chronic Rhinosinusitis with Nasal Polyps (CRSwNP): Upstream Bio announced positive top-line results from its Phase 2 VIBRANT trial for verekitug in CRSwNP in September 2025. This success positions verekitug as a potential best-in-class TSLP receptor antagonist, and the company is accelerating its Phase 3 development planning for this indication, which could lead to significant revenue generation upon market entry.
  2. Successful Commercialization of Verekitug in Severe Asthma: Top-line data from the VALIANT Phase 2 trial of verekitug in severe asthma is anticipated in the first quarter of 2026. A positive readout from this trial is considered a critical near-term catalyst and a substantial driver of future revenue, with the company proactively scaling clinical and manufacturing capabilities in anticipation.
  3. Pipeline Expansion into Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Other TSLP-driven Inflammatory Diseases: Upstream Bio initiated a Phase 2 clinical trial for verekitug in COPD in July 2025. Beyond respiratory indications, the company believes verekitug, a monoclonal antibody targeting the TSLP receptor, has broad potential as a therapy for various other TSLP-driven inflammatory diseases. Successful development and commercialization in these additional markets would expand the product's reach and contribute to revenue growth.
  4. Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations: Upstream Bio, as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, has opportunities to forge strategic collaborations for the development and commercialization of verekitug. Such partnerships could provide access to additional financial resources, specialized expertise, and established distribution networks, thereby accelerating market access and enhancing revenue streams.

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Share Issuance

  • Upstream Bio completed its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2024, pricing 15,000,000 shares at $17.00 per share, which initially raised $255.0 million.
  • The IPO was upsized to 17,250,000 shares at $17.00 per share, including the full exercise of the underwriters' option for additional shares, resulting in gross proceeds of approximately $293 million.
  • The company's Q3 2025 financial report indicated an impact on net loss per share due to increased shares outstanding.

Inbound Investments

  • Upstream Bio has raised a total of $800 million in funding to date, encompassing investments prior to its October 2024 IPO.
  • The company holds strategic licensing agreements with Lonza and Regeneron, providing essential intellectual property rights and manufacturing capabilities for its lead product candidate, verekitug.
  • Upstream Bio reported $0.7 million in collaboration revenue for the third quarter of 2025, primarily from work under its Maruho License Agreement related to a Phase 2 clinical trial for severe asthma.

Capital Expenditures

  • Research and development expenses increased significantly to $33.0 million for the third quarter of 2025, up from $15.4 million for the same period in 2024.
  • These expenditures are primarily focused on advancing its verekitug programs, including multiple Phase 2 clinical trials for severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
  • As of September 30, 2025, Upstream Bio had $372.4 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, which is projected to fund planned operations, including R&D, through 2027.

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Financials

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Mkt Price30.79338.59759.18338.59
Mkt Cap1.7182.278.778.7
Rev LTM335,97114,24814,248
Op Inc LTM-1418,6713,8073,807
FCF LTM-12311,5393,8813,881
FCF 3Y Avg-9,0673,8536,460
CFO LTM-12213,1265,0715,071
CFO 3Y Avg-10,3224,8487,585

Growth & Margins

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Rev Chg LTM26.8%10.6%2.9%10.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.2%1.4%6.3%
Rev Chg Q12.5%12.4%0.9%12.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%3.0%0.2%2.8%
Op Mgn LTM-5,020.1%24.1%26.7%24.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-25.4%30.0%27.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-555.5%0.6%-0.9%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-4,367.8%36.5%35.6%35.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-32.7%35.4%34.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-4,376.7%32.1%27.2%27.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-28.8%28.2%28.5%

Valuation

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
Mkt Cap1.7182.278.778.7
P/S593.35.15.55.5
P/EBIT-11.816.415.215.2
P/E-13.626.017.217.2
P/CFO-13.613.915.513.9
Total Yield-7.4%6.6%6.2%6.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.8%0.4%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.7%4.6%5.2%
D/E0.00.30.00.0
Net D/E-0.20.2-0.1-0.1

Returns

UPBAMGNREGNMedian
NameUpstream.Amgen Regenero. 
1M Rtn13.7%3.3%-2.2%3.3%
3M Rtn23.0%14.9%21.0%21.0%
6M Rtn98.6%14.6%33.6%33.6%
12M Rtn210.1%21.0%14.5%21.0%
3Y Rtn40.0%52.0%-2.5%40.0%
1M Excs Rtn12.9%2.5%-3.1%2.5%
3M Excs Rtn18.0%13.1%15.5%15.5%
6M Excs Rtn88.0%4.6%23.9%23.9%
12M Excs Rtn171.4%8.0%-1.1%8.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-30.0%-23.0%-67.2%-30.0%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory21
Total21


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory-40 
Total-40 


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory-21 
Total-21 


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$30.79 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.7 
First Trading Date10/11/2024 
Distance from 52W High-5.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$28.98$16.31
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA6.2%88.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility67.7%78.1%
Downside Capture-58.3026.42
Upside Capture67.76138.47
Correlation (SPY)13.9%19.2%
UPB Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.420.920.870.770.78-0.03
Up Beta2.965.094.173.440.94-0.14
Down Beta-0.430.050.47-0.580.380.79
Up Capture187%88%70%165%184%26%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days11213267134165
Down Capture-116%19%-44%-53%54%80%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days8192857115156

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPB
UPB191.0%78.5%1.70-
Sector ETF (XLV)6.3%17.2%0.2017.3%
Equity (SPY)15.6%19.2%0.6318.8%
Gold (GLD)77.2%24.5%2.308.1%
Commodities (DBC)10.0%16.5%0.405.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.9%16.5%-0.0010.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-23.4%40.3%-0.5618.1%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPB
UPB7.3%83.7%0.69-
Sector ETF (XLV)7.8%14.4%0.3616.2%
Equity (SPY)14.5%17.0%0.6823.2%
Gold (GLD)21.5%16.8%1.047.8%
Commodities (DBC)12.0%18.9%0.510.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1615.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)20.9%57.5%0.5617.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPB
UPB3.6%83.7%0.69-
Sector ETF (XLV)10.4%16.6%0.5216.2%
Equity (SPY)15.6%17.9%0.7523.2%
Gold (GLD)15.6%15.5%0.847.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.4%17.6%0.390.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.8%0.2415.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)69.9%66.5%1.0917.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 12312025-1.0%
Average Daily Volume0.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.3 days
Basic Shares Quantity53.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares6.4%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-4.3%-5.0%10.8%
8/6/20257.9%12.9%27.0%
3/12/20257.8%5.6%-23.7%
11/7/20241.7%-2.5%-10.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive322
# Negative122
Median Positive7.8%9.3%18.9%
Median Negative-4.3%-3.8%-17.0%
Max Positive7.9%12.9%27.0%
Max Negative-4.3%-5.0%-23.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202403/12/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202410/11/2024424B4