Upstream Bio (UPB)
Market Price (6/28/2026): $6.755 | Market Cap: $367.0 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Upstream Bio (UPB)
Market Price (6/28/2026): $6.755Market Cap: $367.0 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -80% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -79% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -172 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5176% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 110x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 372% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4213%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4217% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -47% Key risksUPB key risks include [1] its singular dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -80% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -79% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -172 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5176% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 110x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 372% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4213%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4217% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -47% |
| Key risksUPB key risks include [1] its singular dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its lead candidate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Upstream Bio (UPB) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Increased Net Loss and Cash Burn in fiscal Q1 2026. Upstream Bio reported a net loss of $40.6 million for fiscal Q1 2026, an increase of $13.3 million compared to the $27.3 million net loss in fiscal Q1 2025, driven largely by increased research and development expenses. While the company's reported earnings per share of -$0.75 in fiscal Q1 2026 were narrower than some analyst consensus estimates, the market reacted negatively, with shares declining by 1.06% to 5.65% in the sessions following the May 13, 2026, earnings report. As a pre-revenue clinical-stage company, this increased burn rate and ongoing net loss likely contributed to investor caution.
2. Delayed Enrollment and Data for the Phase 2 COPD Trial. Upstream Bio announced in May 2026 that it would cap further enrollment in its Phase 2 VENTURE trial for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), with data now expected in the second half of 2027. This adjustment in the development timeline or strategy for one of its key pipeline programs, verekitug, could be perceived negatively by investors, signaling potential delays in bringing the drug to market for this indication.
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Upstream Bio (UPB) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Increased Net Loss and Cash Burn in fiscal Q1 2026. Upstream Bio reported a net loss of $40.6 million for fiscal Q1 2026, an increase of $13.3 million compared to the $27.3 million net loss in fiscal Q1 2025, driven largely by increased research and development expenses. While the company's reported earnings per share of -$0.75 in fiscal Q1 2026 were narrower than some analyst consensus estimates, the market reacted negatively, with shares declining by 1.06% to 5.65% in the sessions following the May 13, 2026, earnings report. As a pre-revenue clinical-stage company, this increased burn rate and ongoing net loss likely contributed to investor caution.
2. Delayed Enrollment and Data for the Phase 2 COPD Trial. Upstream Bio announced in May 2026 that it would cap further enrollment in its Phase 2 VENTURE trial for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), with data now expected in the second half of 2027. This adjustment in the development timeline or strategy for one of its key pipeline programs, verekitug, could be perceived negatively by investors, signaling potential delays in bringing the drug to market for this indication.
3. General Investor Caution and Structural Slump in the Early-Stage Biotechnology Sector. The broader biotechnology market for early-stage companies has experienced "guarded momentum" and a "structural total shareholder return slump" through the first half of 2026, despite some positive trends in M&A for more mature companies. Investors have shown "ongoing market caution around early-stage biotech names," with preclinical valuations experiencing a collapse, making it a challenging environment for companies like Upstream Bio that are still in clinical development and not yet generating product revenue.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.1% change in UPB stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.68 | 6.75 | -12.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3 | 3 | 18.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 148.0 | 110.4 | -25.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 54 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPB | -12.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | 21.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 0.5% | 27.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -76.4% change in UPB stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.60 | 6.75 | -76.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3 | 3 | 18.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 551.1 | 110.4 | -80.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 54 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -76.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPB | -76.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 14.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 2.6% | 4.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.9% change in UPB stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.23 | 6.75 | -26.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 3 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 110.4 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 54 | -5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPB | -26.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.1% | 15.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.0% | 11.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 31.9% | 12.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UPB Return | - | - | - | -25% | 65% | -77% | -71% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 17% | 18% | -13% | 19% | -5% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UPB Win Rate | - | - | - | 33% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 54% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UPB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -67% | -82% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -19% | -19% | -32% | -27% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMGN, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UPB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Upstream Bio's stock fell -23.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | UPB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Upstream Bio's stock fell -23.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Upstream Bio (UPB)
Upstream Bio (UPB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing novel treatments for inflammatory diseases, particularly severe respiratory disorders. Its lead product candidate, verekitug, is a monoclonal antibody that uniquely targets and inhibits the Thymic Stromal Lymphopoietin (TSLP) receptor. By blocking this "alarmin" cytokine upstream in the inflammatory cascade, verekitug aims to impact a wide range of immune-mediated diseases. The company is currently advancing verekitug in separate Phase 2 trials for severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and plans to initiate a Phase 2 trial for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the second half of 2025.
Verekitug differentiates itself from existing TSLP-targeted therapies, such as tezepelumab (Tezspire), by inhibiting the TSLP receptor rather than the ligand. Upstream Bio's clinical data indicate verekitug is approximately 300-fold more potent than tezepelumab, allowing for significantly extended dosing intervals of up to 24 weeks compared to tezepelumab's four-week schedule. This high potency and favorable pharmacokinetic profile, combined with observed substantial and sustained reductions in disease-related biomarkers, positions verekitug to potentially offer improved clinical outcomes and reduced treatment burden for patients. The company believes these attributes could make verekitug the preferred biologic in these large, underserved markets, addressing unmet needs where current treatments provide suboptimal symptom control or require frequent administration.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Upstream Bio:
- Upstream Bio is developing a drug that aims to be **the 'long-acting Tezspire'**, promising significantly less frequent injections (every 24 weeks) and higher potency for severe asthma and other inflammatory diseases, compared to Amgen and AstraZeneca's Tezspire.
- Think of them as **a specialized biotech trying to 'one-up' Amgen and AstraZeneca** in the TSLP-targeting space, with a drug designed for superior potency and patient convenience.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Verekitug: A clinical-stage monoclonal antibody designed to inhibit the TSLP receptor for the treatment of inflammatory diseases, including severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
AI Analysis | Feedback
Upstream Bio (UPB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing treatments for inflammatory diseases. The company is currently advancing its lead product candidate, verekitug, through Phase 2 clinical trials for severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and plans to initiate a Phase 2 trial for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
As a clinical-stage company, Upstream Bio does not yet have any commercialized products approved for sale. Therefore, it does not currently have major customers, either other companies or individual patients, from which it derives product revenue. Its current activities are focused on research and development, conducting clinical trials, and pursuing regulatory approvals for its drug candidate, verekitug.
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Rand Sutherland, MD, Chief Executive Officer
Dr. Sutherland has over 25 years of business and clinical experience. He most recently served as CEO of Seeker Biologics and previously as President of Translate Bio, Inc. before its acquisition by Sanofi. Prior to that, Dr. Sutherland held various R&D and medical affairs roles at Sanofi, leading the development of new medicines in Immunology and Rare Diseases and heading global medical affairs for the Specialty Care business unit.
Mike Gray, MBA, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Gray brings more than 25 years of public-private leadership experience. He was most recently the CFO and COO of Carmot Therapeutics, where he played a role in securing the company's acquisition by Roche in 2024. Before Carmot, he held CFO and COO positions at Imara and Arsanis, assisting both companies with initial public offerings and organizational development.
Aaron Deykin, MD, Chief Medical Officer & Head of R&D
Dr. Deykin leads Upstream Bio's clinical development activities and strategy. Before joining Upstream, he was Senior Vice President and Head of Clinical Sciences at Biogen, overseeing clinical development in immunology, fibrosis, and neurology. He also previously served as Assistant Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School and was a faculty member at Brigham and Women's Hospital.
Adam Houghton, PhD, Chief Business Officer
Dr. Houghton is responsible for Business Development and Pipeline Strategy at Upstream Bio. Prior to this role, he was Vice President, Corporate Strategy, and Head of AbbVie Ventures, AbbVie's corporate venture investment group. He has also led Search and Evaluation teams at AbbVie, Biogen, and Eli Lilly, contributing significantly to major licensing and acquisition deals in Immunology and Neuroscience.
Stacy Price, MS, PMP, Chief Technology Officer
Ms. Price has served as Chief Technology Officer of Upstream Bio since May 2025, overseeing the company's technical operations and product development. She has over 25 years of leadership experience in technical operations within the biotechnology industry, having previously served as Chief Technology and Manufacturing Officer at Invivyd.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Risk of Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval: Upstream Bio's success is entirely dependent on the successful outcome of its ongoing and planned Phase 2 clinical trials for verekitug in severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), as well as subsequent regulatory approvals. The company explicitly states that "ongoing and future clinical trials for verekitug may produce differing clinical activity and tolerability results" and that the trial designs "pending interactions with regulatory authorities, could allow data from these trials to support submissions for product approval," indicating that approval is not guaranteed. Failure to demonstrate efficacy, safety, or to receive regulatory clearance would severely impact the company's business prospects.
Competition from Established Therapies and Companies: Verekitug faces significant competition, particularly from tezepelumab (Tezspire), which is already approved for severe asthma and is marketed by large pharmaceutical companies, Amgen Inc. and AstraZeneca PLC, with greater financial resources and expertise. Tezepelumab also targets the TSLP pathway and is advancing in Phase 3 development for COPD. Additionally, there are six other biologics approved for severe asthma, three of which are also approved for CRSwNP, and dupilumab is approved for COPD, creating a crowded market. Upstream Bio has not conducted head-to-head clinical studies against tezepelumab, and its claims of differentiation, such as higher potency and extended dosing, would need to be convincingly demonstrated to gain market share against established players.
Dependence on a Single Product Candidate: Upstream Bio's business is currently focused solely on the development and potential commercialization of verekitug. The company's entire value and future prospects are tied to the success of this single monoclonal antibody across its target indications. Any setbacks, failures, or unexpected issues related to verekitug in clinical development, regulatory approval, or commercialization would have a profound and potentially catastrophic impact on the company.
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The rapid advancement of tezepelumab (marketed as Tezspire by Amgen and AstraZeneca) into Phase 3 clinical development for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) following positive Phase 2a data, positioning a well-resourced competitor significantly ahead of Upstream Bio's planned Phase 2 initiation for verekitug in COPD in the second half of 2025.
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- The estimated biologics sales for asthma in the United States, Europe, and Japan markets were approximately $7.5 billion in 2023.
- The estimated U.S. sales of biologics for the treatment of severe asthma were approximately $6.0 billion in 2023.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Upstream Bio (UPB)
- **Potential Market Entry in Chronic Rhinosinusitis with Nasal Polyps (CRSwNP):** Upstream Bio anticipates data from its Phase 2 clinical trial for verekitug in CRSwNP during the second half of 2025. Successful trial outcomes and subsequent regulatory approval would pave the way for market entry within the next 2-3 years, targeting a significant patient population in the United States, Europe, and Japan.
- **Potential Market Entry in Severe Asthma:** Data from the multi-national, placebo-controlled, randomized Phase 2 clinical trials for verekitug in severe asthma are expected in the second half of 2026. Positive results and regulatory approval would allow Upstream Bio to enter the substantial severe asthma market, which had estimated biologics sales of approximately $6.0 billion in the U.S. in 2023.
- **Expansion into the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Market:** Upstream Bio plans to initiate its first clinical trial in COPD, with the first patient expected to be dosed in the second half of 2025. This strategic move into the large COPD market, where only one biologic is currently approved, represents a significant long-term revenue growth opportunity, with early phase success potentially driving valuation within the 2-3 year timeframe.
- **Differentiated Product Profile of Verekitug:** Verekitug's highly potent inhibition of the TSLP receptor and its potential for substantially extended dosing intervals (up to 24 weeks compared to competitors) are expected to be key drivers of market adoption and share capture once approved. This differentiated profile is anticipated to translate into improved clinical outcomes and a preferred treatment option for patients in severe asthma, CRSwNP, and eventually COPD, accelerating revenue growth.
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Outbound Investments
- In 2021, Upstream Bio acquired verekitug from Astellas Pharma Inc.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Upstream Bio Stock Pre-Market (+15%) : Positive Phase 2 Asthma Trial Data | 02/11/2026 | |
| Would You Still Hold Upstream Bio Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 358.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,920 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,843 |
| FCF LTM | 3,791 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,215 |
| CFO LTM | 5,013 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,458 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory | -160 | -78 | -40 |
| Total | -160 | -78 | -40 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Developing treatments for inflammatory diseases, with an initial focus on severe respiratory | -143 | -63 | -21 |
| Total | -143 | -63 | -21 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.75 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/11/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -79.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.12 | $18.05 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -16.9% | -62.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 56.8% | 92.3% |
| Downside Capture | 103.36 | 156.12 |
| Upside Capture | -34.89 | 63.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 26.7% | 14.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.87 | 0.92 | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.30 | -0.10 |
| Up Beta | -0.08 | -0.17 | 0.08 | 1.77 | 1.86 | 0.48 |
| Down Beta | -3.60 | -1.60 | 1.61 | 0.80 | 0.43 | -1.03 |
| Up Capture | 50% | 71% | 168% | -10% | 132% | 22% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 34 | 61 | 131 | 204 |
| Down Capture | 456% | 436% | 182% | 251% | 152% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 60 | 115 | 197 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPB | -37.3% | 92.1% | -0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 21.4% | 15.4% | 1.06 | 9.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.4% | 1.26 | 14.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.7% | 0.70 | 6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.8% | 18.6% | 0.92 | -3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.1% | 13.6% | 0.85 | -0.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 42.5% | -1.25 | 12.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPB | -20.8% | 92.1% | -0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.0% | 14.8% | 0.29 | 12.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 20.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.5% | 0.28 | -3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.9% | 0.08 | 12.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.9% | 54.0% | 0.39 | 18.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPB | -11.0% | 92.1% | -0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.4% | 16.6% | 0.51 | 12.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 20.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.1% | 0.60 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | -3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 12.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 54.7% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 18.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/13/2026 | 4.6% | -10.3% | -28.7% |
| 3/26/2026 | 3.4% | -1.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.3% | -5.0% | 10.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 7.9% | 12.9% | 27.0% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.4% | 9.4% | 25.1% |
| 3/12/2025 | 7.8% | 5.6% | -23.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.7% | -2.5% | -10.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 9.4% | 25.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -3.8% | -17.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 12.9% | 27.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -10.3% | -28.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/13/2026 | 4.6% | -10.3% | -28.7% |
| 3/26/2026 | 3.4% | -1.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.3% | -5.0% | 10.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 7.9% | 12.9% | 27.0% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.4% | 9.4% | 25.1% |
| 3/12/2025 | 7.8% | 5.6% | -23.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.7% | -2.5% | -10.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 9.4% | 25.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -3.8% | -17.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 12.9% | 27.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -10.3% | -28.7% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,027 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2,027 for 2027 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 341.50 Mil | -8.3% | Lower New | Actual: 372.40 Mil for 2027 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gray, Michael | CFO and COO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 853 | 5,203 | 175,650 | Form |
| 2 | Sutherland, Everett Rand | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 2,095 | 12,780 | 431,953 | Form |
| 3 | Houghton, Adam | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 700 | 4,270 | 143,966 | Form |
| 4 | Deykin, Aaron | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 895 | 5,460 | 202,502 | Form |
| 5 | Ambrose, Allison | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 477 | 2,910 | 97,893 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gray, Michael | CFO and COO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 853 | 5,203 | 175,650 | Form |
| 2 | Sutherland, Everett Rand | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 2,095 | 12,780 | 431,953 | Form |
| 3 | Houghton, Adam | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 700 | 4,270 | 143,966 | Form |
| 4 | Deykin, Aaron | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 895 | 5,460 | 202,502 | Form |
| 5 | Ambrose, Allison | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 6.10 | 477 | 2,910 | 97,893 | Form |
| 6 | Gray, Michael | CFO and COO | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 9.29 | 852 | 7,915 | 275,430 | Form |
| 7 | Deykin, Aaron | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 9.29 | 894 | 8,305 | 303,662 | Form |
| 8 | Sutherland, Everett Rand | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 9.29 | 2,093 | 19,444 | 677,306 | Form |
| 9 | Ambrose, Allison | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 9.29 | 475 | 4,413 | 153,517 | Form |
| 10 | Houghton, Adam | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 9.29 | 699 | 6,494 | 225,756 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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