UnitedHealth (UNH)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $367.14 | Market Cap: $333.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care
UnitedHealth (UNH)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $367.14Market Cap: $333.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Managed Health Care
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.4% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 23 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 28x Key risksUNH key risks include [1] intense regulatory scrutiny and antitrust probes targeting its Medicare Advantage and Optum businesses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.4% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 23 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 28x |
| Key risksUNH key risks include [1] intense regulatory scrutiny and antitrust probes targeting its Medicare Advantage and Optum businesses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. UnitedHealth Group significantly surpassed Q1 2026 earnings and revenue forecasts, leading to an upward revision of its full-year outlook. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $7.23, exceeding the analyst consensus of $6.59 by 9.71%. Revenues reached $111.7 billion, surpassing expectations of $109.44 billion by 2.07%. Following these strong results, UnitedHealth raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to greater than $18.25 per share, up from its previous outlook of greater than $17.75. This performance contributed to a 9.29% increase in the stock price post-announcement.
2. The company demonstrated improved medical cost management, reflected in a notable decrease in its Medical Care Ratio (MCR). UnitedHealth Group's medical care ratio improved to 83.9% in the first quarter of 2026, a 90 basis point reduction from 84.8% in the first quarter of 2025. This improvement was attributed to strong medical cost management and favorable reserve development. Additionally, broader sector trends, such as softer Q1 2026 hospital volumes from peers, suggested lower utilization, which positively impacts insurers' medical costs.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.2% change in UNH stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 327.56 | 370.74 | 13.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 435,159 | 447,567 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 2.7% | -33.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.9 | 27.9 | 65.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 906 | 908 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | 13.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 16.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | -7.3% | 32.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.9% change in UNH stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 340.35 | 370.74 | 8.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 422,818 | 447,567 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.0% | 2.7% | -46.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.5 | 27.9 | 92.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 907 | 908 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | 8.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 23.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.5% | 36.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.2% change in UNH stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 509.39 | 370.74 | -27.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 400,278 | 447,567 | 11.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.6% | 2.7% | -25.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.5 | 27.9 | -14.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 918 | 908 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | -27.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | -0.4% | 38.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.8% change in UNH stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -56.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 445.52 | 370.74 | -16.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 324,162 | 447,567 | 38.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.2% | 2.7% | -56.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 27.9 | 35.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 934 | 908 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | -16.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 11.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.0% | 41.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UNH Return | 45% | 7% | 1% | -2% | -33% | 12% | 14% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 12% | -9% | -26% | 11% | 5% | 16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UNH Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 60% | 42% | 45% | 58% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UNH Max Drawdown | -8% | -9% | -15% | -16% | -52% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -12% | -23% | -29% | -21% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CVS, CI, ELV, HUM, CNC. See UNH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UNH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 370 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 261.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,229 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CVS, CI, ELV, HUM, CNC
In The Past
UnitedHealth's stock fell -19.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/31/2022. A -19.3% loss requires a 24.0% gain to breakeven.
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About UnitedHealth (UNH)
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlAnalogies for UnitedHealth (UNH):
- It's like the Cigna of health insurance combined with the CVS Caremark of prescription management.
- Think of it as the Accenture of healthcare technology and consulting, but also a massive health insurer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Health Benefit Plans: Comprehensive health, dental, and well-being benefit plans and services for various populations, including employers, individuals, seniors, and government program beneficiaries (Medicaid).
- Health Management & Care Delivery Services: Provides access to care provider networks, health management services, and direct care delivery systems for individuals, employers, and government entities.
- Healthcare Technology & Consulting: Offers software, information products, advisory consulting, and managed services outsourcing to various healthcare organizations and governments.
- Pharmacy Care Services: Provides comprehensive pharmacy benefit management including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty pharmacy, and clinical programs for medication management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
UnitedHealth (UNH) serves a diverse range of customers, which can be categorized into the following major groups:
- Employers: This extensive category includes national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, and small businesses. These entities purchase health benefit plans and services from UnitedHealth for their employees and members.
- Individuals: This group comprises general consumers seeking health coverage, individuals aged 50 and older (particularly for Medicare Advantage plans and services), and those eligible for government-sponsored programs such as Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP).
- Healthcare Organizations and Government Entities: This category includes various institutional clients such as hospital systems, physicians, other health plans, and life sciences companies, primarily for OptumInsight's software, information products, advisory consulting, and managed services. It also covers federal and state government entities, which engage UnitedHealth for services or through contracts for public health programs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- Cardinal Health (CAH)
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
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Stephen J. Hemsley, Chief Executive Officer
Stephen J. Hemsley was appointed Chief Executive Officer of UnitedHealth Group effective May 13, 2025. He previously served as the company's CEO from 2006 to 2017. He joined UnitedHealth Group in 1997 as Chief Operating Officer and became President in 1999. Mr. Hemsley also serves as the Chairman of the company's Board of Directors.
Wayne S. DeVeydt, Chief Financial Officer
Wayne S. DeVeydt was appointed Chief Financial Officer of UnitedHealth Group, effective September 2, 2025. Prior to joining UnitedHealth Group, he most recently served as a Managing Director and Operating Partner at Bain Capital, a private equity firm. From 2018 to 2020, he was Chairman and CEO of Surgery Partners, Inc. Mr. DeVeydt also served as the CFO of Anthem, Inc. (now Elevance) from 2007 to 2016. Earlier in his career, he was a Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, focusing on the healthcare sector.
John F. Rex, Strategic Advisor to the CEO
John F. Rex transitioned to the role of Strategic Advisor to the CEO on September 2, 2025, after serving as UnitedHealth Group's Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President since 2016. He joined UnitedHealth Group in 2012 as the CFO of its Optum business. His prior experience includes serving as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President for InGensa, Inc., as well as holding positions as a leading equity research analyst at firms such as JP Morgan Chase & Co., Robertson Stephens, Inc., and Bear Stearns Companies Inc. He also worked as a strategy and operational consultant and is a Certified Public Accountant.
Dr. Patrick Conway, Chief Executive Officer, Optum
Dr. Patrick Conway, M.D., became Chief Executive Officer of Optum effective April 29, 2025. He has an extensive background as a public and private healthcare leader and practicing pediatrician. Before this role, he held senior leadership positions at Optum Rx and Optum Health.
Heather Cianfrocco, Executive Vice President, Governance, Compliance and Information Security
Heather Cianfrocco was appointed UnitedHealth Group’s Executive Vice President of Governance, Compliance and Information Security, effective April 29, 2025. She brings deep knowledge of the company's business from her experience in senior leadership roles across UnitedHealthcare and Optum, coupled with a decade working as a lawyer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to UnitedHealth (UNH) primarily revolve around regulatory challenges, rising medical costs impacting its Medicare Advantage segment, and the ongoing fallout from significant cyberattacks.
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Regulatory Scrutiny and Government Intervention: UnitedHealth faces significant regulatory and legal risks due to ongoing government investigations and potential legislative changes. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has initiated criminal and civil investigations into Medicare Advantage billing practices, alongside antitrust probes into Optum's vertical integration, particularly concerning its Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) business and the acquisition of Change Healthcare. Proposed legislation aimed at increasing transparency for PBMs could also lead to changes in business models and reduced profitability for Optum Rx. Additionally, evolving regulatory frameworks, including adjustments to Medicare Advantage and Medicaid reimbursement rates and risk adjustment models, continue to exert cost pressures and could compress profit margins.
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Rising Medical Costs and Medicare Advantage Margin Pressure: UnitedHealth is grappling with higher-than-expected healthcare utilization and increased medical costs, particularly within its Medicare Advantage segment and Optum Health. This trend has led to elevated medical care ratios (MCR) and pressure on profit margins, with Medicare Advantage margins expected to be significantly lower than historical targets. New risk adjustment models, such as the V28 revisions by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), are designed to tighten coding for patient conditions, which could "structurally impair" Optum Health and reduce payments.
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Cyberattack Fallout: The February 2024 ransomware attack on Change Healthcare, a subsidiary within UnitedHealth's Optum segment, poses a significant and ongoing risk. This cyberattack caused widespread disruption across the U.S. healthcare sector, affecting pharmacies, patient prescription access, and billing processes. The incident has resulted in substantial financial costs for UnitedHealth, including over $3 billion in 2024, and continues to present reputational damage and necessitate significant cybersecurity investments to mitigate future threats.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlThere are two clear emerging threats to UnitedHealth:
- The aggressive expansion of Amazon Pharmacy (including services like PillPack and RxPass) into home delivery, specialty pharmacy, and potentially broader pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services, which directly threatens OptumRx's market share and business model.
- The rapid growth and consolidation of tech-enabled primary care and integrated care delivery networks by new entrants and competitors, such as Amazon's acquisition of One Medical and CVS's acquisition of Oak Street Health, which directly competes with OptumHealth's care delivery and provider network capabilities by offering alternative, often digitally enhanced, access to healthcare services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) operates across diversified health care segments, each addressing substantial markets primarily within the United States.
UnitedHealthcare Segment
This segment focuses on health benefit plans and services for various consumer groups.
- U.S. Health & Medical Insurance Market: The overall U.S. health and medical insurance market was valued at approximately $1.6 trillion in 2026 and is projected to reach $2.15 trillion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.37%. Other estimates placed the market at $1.23 trillion in 2024, expected to grow to $1.77 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.98%. Another source valued the U.S. health insurance market at $613.0 billion in 2024, projected to increase to $1,161.7 billion by 2032 at an 8.5% CAGR.
- U.S. Group Health Insurance Market (Commercial): The U.S. group health insurance market, also known as employer-sponsored insurance, was estimated at $1.41 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% from 2025 to 2030. UnitedHealth Group held a 16% market share in the national commercial health insurance market in 2024.
- U.S. Medicare Advantage Market: The U.S. Medicare Advantage market size was estimated at $445.97 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand to $1,060.04 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 10.1%. Enrollment in Medicare Advantage reached 34.1 million beneficiaries in 2025, accounting for 54% of all eligible Medicare individuals in the U.S. By February 2026, 51% of the Medicare population was enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans, totaling 35.4 million beneficiaries.
- U.S. Medicaid Market: In January 2025, 71.4 million people were enrolled in Medicaid in the U.S. Total Medicaid spending was $884.4 billion in fiscal year 2023. In fiscal year 2024, total Medicaid spending was $919 billion. UnitedHealth Group held a 9% share of the Medicaid Managed Care Organization (MCO) market as of September 2024.
- U.S. Hospital Services Market: The U.S. hospital services market was valued at $2.64 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately $4.16 trillion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 4.65% from 2025 to 2034.
OptumRx Segment
This segment provides pharmacy care services and programs.
- U.S. Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) Market: The U.S. pharmacy benefit management market size was calculated at $459.65 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach approximately $1,041.11 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.7% from 2025 to 2034. Another report valued the market at $626.47 billion in the U.S. in 2026. In 2024, OptumRx, along with two other major PBMs, processed roughly 80% of all U.S. pharmacy claims.
OptumHealth & OptumInsight Segments
These segments offer health management, care delivery, software, information products, and consulting.
- U.S. Healthcare IT Market: The U.S. healthcare IT market size was valued at $160.52 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately $566.48 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 13.44% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates place the U.S. healthcare IT market at $182.09 billion in 2025, reaching $396.82 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 14.0%. The total IT spend by healthcare organizations in the U.S. is projected to reach $176.6 billion, representing 63% of the global healthcare IT market size in 2025.
- U.S. Healthcare Consulting Services Market: The U.S. healthcare consulting services market was valued at $10.1 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% between 2025 and 2034. Another source projected the healthcare consulting services market size to reach $52.0 billion by 2030 from $32.2 billion in 2025, at a CAGR of 10.1%. North America held the largest share of 40.3% of the global healthcare consulting services market in 2024.
- U.S. Healthcare Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) Market: The U.S. healthcare BPO market is valued at $165.05 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $245.46 billion by 2031, growing at an 8.26% CAGR.
AI Analysis | Feedback
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is focusing on several key areas to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years, despite facing immediate headwinds such as proposed flat Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates for 2027 and rising medical costs. The company is implementing strategic initiatives to stabilize its core businesses and expand its health services segments.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Expansion of Optum Segment, particularly Optum Rx and Optum Health: The Optum segment is consistently identified as a primary growth engine. Optum Rx has secured over 800 new client relationships for the 2026 and 2027 selling seasons, which is anticipated to boost operating earnings and margin expansion, supported by AI automation and operational efficiencies. Concurrently, Optum Health projects approximately 9% operating earnings growth in 2026, driven by a renewed focus on integrated value-based care within key markets and improved execution.
- Strategic Repricing and Operational Discipline within UnitedHealthcare: UnitedHealthcare is undergoing a "re-baselining" of its operations and is aligning its pricing discipline to account for higher medical trends and the impact of healthcare policy changes. This strategic repricing across the enterprise and efforts to improve the medical care ratio are aimed at stabilizing and eventually growing revenue in its health benefits business, even amidst external challenges.
- Growth of Value-Based Care Models: A strategic shift towards integrated value-based care arrangements within Optum Health is expected to be a significant driver. These models aim to manage the total cost of care more effectively, leading to improved outcomes and supporting the retention of cash, which can attract more clients and expand service offerings over time.
- Leveraging AI and Technology for Efficiency and Service Enhancement: UnitedHealth Group is investing in AI automation to drive operating efficiencies, particularly within Optum Rx, which is expected to support margin expansion. While not a direct revenue driver, these technological advancements can enhance competitiveness, improve cost management, and free up resources for further growth initiatives and improved service delivery, ultimately supporting revenue expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- UnitedHealth Group's repurchase of common stock averaged $6.909 billion annually from fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025.
- Annual share repurchases were $5 billion in 2021, $7 billion in 2022, $8 billion in 2023, $9 billion in 2024, and $5.545 billion in 2025.
- In 2024, the company returned over $16 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- UnitedHealth Group's shares outstanding have generally declined over the past few years, with 0.911 billion shares outstanding in 2025 (a 1.94% decline from 2024), 0.929 billion in 2024 (a 0.96% decline from 2023), and 0.938 billion in 2023 (a 1.26% decline from 2022).
Outbound Investments
- UnitedHealth Group made 6 investments across sectors including Healthcare IT, Clinical Labs IT, and Healthcare Booking Platforms.
- Notable recent investments include a Seed round in Carpl (February 2024), a Seed round in Mundial Media (September 2023), and a Series A in Morgan's Wonderland (October 2022).
- The company merged Change Healthcare in 2022, enhancing Optum's analytics and pharmacy capabilities.
- Optum Health integrated large groups such as LHC Group in 2023 and aims to expand to thousands more clinical sites by 2025–2026 through acquisitions and affiliations.
Capital Expenditures
- UnitedHealth Group's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $3.153 billion.
- Capital expenditures consistently increased, rising from $2.454 billion in 2021 to $3.622 billion in 2025.
- The company plans to invest nearly $1.5 billion in 2026 and a similar amount in 2027 to support enterprise-wide AI initiatives, focusing on accelerating AI-first product development at OptumInsight and expanding automation across OptumRx and UnitedHealthcare.
- Forecasted capital expenditures are $3.9 billion for 2026, $4.042 billion for 2027, and $4.173 billion for 2028.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
| 05312025 | UNH | UnitedHealth | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | -7.8% | -20.7% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 267.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 80.0 |
| Rev LTM | 237,502 |
| Op Inc LTM | 10,385 |
| FCF LTM | 7,460 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,158 |
| CFO LTM | 8,772 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,966 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -41.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -12.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 80.0 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.8 |
| P/EBIT | 12.3 |
| P/E | 20.8 |
| P/CFO | 10.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 36.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 24.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -89.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealthcare | 298,208 | 281,360 | 249,741 | 222,899 | 200,875 |
| Optum Rx | 133,231 | 116,087 | 99,773 | 35,535 | 35,078 |
| Optum Health | 105,358 | 95,319 | 71,174 | 24,831 | 17,327 |
| Optum Insight | 18,757 | 18,932 | 14,581 | 4,332 | 3,861 |
| Optum Eliminations | -4,389 | -3,703 | -2,760 | ||
| Corporate and Eliminations | -150,887 | -136,373 | -108,347 | ||
| Total | 400,278 | 371,622 | 324,162 | 287,597 | 257,141 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealthcare | 15,584 | 16,415 | 14,379 | 11,975 | 12,359 |
| Optum Health | 7,770 | 6,560 | 6,032 | 4,462 | 3,434 |
| Optum Rx | 5,836 | 5,115 | 4,436 | 4,135 | 3,887 |
| Optum Insight | 3,097 | 4,268 | 3,588 | 3,398 | 2,725 |
| Corporate and Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Optum Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 32,287 | 32,358 | 28,435 | 23,970 | 22,405 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealthcare | 119,009 | 110,943 | 107,094 | 102,967 | 98,229 |
| Optum Health | 96,472 | 89,432 | 68,950 | 60,474 | 52,073 |
| Optum Rx | 59,086 | 51,266 | 47,476 | 40,181 | 39,280 |
| Optum Insight | 34,452 | 34,173 | 31,090 | 16,868 | 15,425 |
| Optum Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Corporate and Eliminations | -10,741 | -12,094 | -8,905 | -8,284 | -7,718 |
| Total | 298,278 | 273,720 | 245,705 | 212,206 | 197,289 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $370.74 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 336.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $297.45 | $311.11 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 24.6% | 19.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.6% | 46.6% |
| Downside Capture | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| Upside Capture | 123.07 | 27.10 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.9% | 15.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.42 | 0.66 | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Up Beta | -1.01 | 0.79 | 1.64 | 0.89 | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| Down Beta | 1.14 | 1.02 | 0.57 | 0.74 | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| Up Capture | 19% | 47% | -46% | 19% | -14% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 31 | 60 | 122 | 381 |
| Down Capture | 86% | 75% | 56% | 85% | 57% | 53% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 32 | 66 | 130 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | -9.3% | 46.5% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.9% | 15.8% | 0.12 | 43.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.93 | 15.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.2% | 27.2% | 1.09 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.7% | 18.1% | 1.99 | -3.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.4% | 0.65 | 16.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.6% | 42.1% | -0.40 | 13.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | 0.4% | 31.6% | 0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.7% | 14.6% | 0.15 | 48.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 23.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.6% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 19.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.1% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 9.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | 12.6% | 30.1% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.0% | 16.5% | 0.44 | 62.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 45.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 12.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 37.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 9.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/21/2026 | 7.0% | 9.6% | |
| 1/27/2026 | -19.6% | -18.8% | -19.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | 0.5% | -8.8% | -10.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | -7.5% | -14.6% | 6.5% |
| 4/17/2025 | -22.4% | -27.5% | -50.1% |
| 1/16/2025 | -6.0% | -2.5% | -3.7% |
| 10/15/2024 | -8.1% | -5.6% | 1.5% |
| 7/16/2024 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -4.1% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.2% | 12.6% | 15.3% |
| Max Negative | -22.4% | -27.5% | -50.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Share Repurchases | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 18.2 | 2.8% | Raised | Guidance: 17.8 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Debt-to-Capital Ratio | 0.4 | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 439.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Income | 24.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 EPS | 17.8 | 9.2% | Raised | Guidance: 16.2 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 18.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 5.5% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baker, Charles D | Trust | Sell | 9152025 | 356.05 | 27 | Form | |||
| 2 | Conway, Patrick Hugh | Chief Executive Officer, Optum | Direct | Sell | 6122025 | 305.00 | 589 | 179,645 | 3,171,528 | Form |
| 3 | Rex, John F | President & CFO | Direct | Buy | 5162025 | 291.12 | 17,175 | 4,999,919 | 59,328,308 | Form |
| 4 | Hemsley, Stephen J | CEO, UHG | Direct | Buy | 5162025 | 288.57 | 86,700 | 25,019,019 | 196,081,278 | Form |
| 5 | Gil, Kristen | Trust | Buy | 5162025 | 271.17 | 3,700 | 1,003,329 | 1,035,327 | Form |
UNH Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The final score is floored at 2 (AVOID). The investment thesis is structurally impaired. The competitive moat is actively eroding as the core business loses customers and the Optum growth engine contracts. Compounding this, the low valuation is a classic value trap, reflecting existential regulatory risk from the DOJ that could break the company's fundamental integrated model. The risk/reward is negatively skewed, making this an unattractive investment.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: 'Quality Compounder / Stalwart', Secondary: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'UNH is classified primarily as a 'Stalwart' due to its immense scale and market leadership. However, the current investment thesis hinges entirely on its execution of a strategic shift from growth to margin preservation, making 'Transition / Profit Pivot' a critical secondary archetype (70% / 30% blend).
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for the stock is management's successful execution of a strategic pivot from membership growth to profitability. By aggressively repricing insurance plans and shedding unprofitable Medicare Advantage members, the company is demonstrating an ability to restore margins, which the market is rewarding over top-line growth.
- The Medical Care Ratio improved significantly to 83.9% in Q1 2026, down from high levels in the second half of 2025, proving pricing actions are effective.
- Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to be greater than $18.25, signaling confidence in the durability of the margin recovery.
- The market reacted positively to Q1 2026 earnings, with the stock surging despite a reported sequential decline of 700,000 members, endorsing the 'profitability over growth' strategy.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is the ongoing civil and criminal investigation by the Department of Justice into UnitedHealth's vertically integrated model. The probe targets the relationship between the UnitedHealthcare insurance arm and the Optum services business, which is the core of the company's long-term strategy. A negative outcome could lead to substantial fines, forced divestitures, or structural changes that would fundamentally impair the company's synergistic business model and profitability.
- The company has confirmed it is cooperating with both civil and criminal DOJ investigations concerning its Medicare Advantage billing and the relationship between its insurance and Optum physician network.
- The regulatory moat has inverted into a deficit, with the company's core strategy now its greatest vulnerability to bipartisan antitrust and legislative threats.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Medical Care Ratio (MCR) | Sustain below 85% | This is the primary indicator that the company's margin recovery strategy is holding. A drift back towards high-80s would signal a failure of the core thesis. |
| Optum Segment Operating Earnings Growth | Return to Positive YoY Growth | The 15% YoY decline in Q1 must be reversed. A continued decline indicates the supposed 'growth engine' is broken, putting the entire long-term valuation case at risk. |
| People Served (UnitedHealthcare) | Stabilize sequential decline | While the initial 700k member loss was seen as 'good shrink,' continued significant quarterly losses would suggest a deeper competitive issue beyond strategic repositioning. |
Regulatory Risk vs. Margin Recovery
BULL VIEW
The market is rewarding the strategic pivot to profitability. Improved Medical Care Ratios and raised EPS guidance prove the company can successfully defend margins, making the stock undervalued.
CORE TENSION
Can management's successful margin recovery by repricing plans and shedding members outweigh the existential threat of a DOJ antitrust investigation aimed at its core integrated business model?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The DOJ investigation into Optum's model is the primary risk. Optum's operating earnings fell 15% and Optum Health revenue declined 3% in Q1 2026, showing the growth engine is broken.
BEAR VIEW
The DOJ investigation into the Optum/UnitedHealthcare synergy could lead to massive fines or a forced breakup, fundamentally breaking the business model and making the current valuation a value trap.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Anytime (Next 6 months) | DOJ Investigation Update Watch: Announcement of a formal lawsuit, civil investigative demand, or a material settlement provision. Headline risk is the primary signal. |
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Optum Segment Operating Earnings growth. Must show stabilization after the 15% YoY decline reported in Q1 2026. |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Medical Care Ratio (MCR). Must be sustained below the 85% threshold, reinforcing the Q1 2026 improvement to 83.9%. |
Anytime (Next 6 months) | Change Healthcare Cyberattack Financial Impact Watch: Disclosure of a material financial provision for HHS/OCR fines or class-action settlements. Any amount exceeding several billion dollars. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 30, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported elevated Medical Care Ratio of 89.9%, indicating higher-than-expected medical costs and signaling the beginning of the margin pressures that would continue through Q4. | Fell notably by -2.96% $350.16 -> $339.80 |
Nov 12, 2025 | Investor Conference Presentation Details: Management presented a strategy focusing on value-based care expansion within Optum and leveraging data analytics to control medical costs, which was positively received. | Rose significantly by 3.54% $322.75 -> $334.19 |
Dec 16, 2025 | AMA Report on Health Insurance Competition Details: The American Medical Association released its annual report on competition in health insurance, highlighting the market power of dominant players like UnitedHealth, increasing regulatory focus. | Fell notably by -2.02% $338.46 -> $331.62 |
Jan 27, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Initial FY2026 guidance missed expectations, reflecting rising medical costs from late 2025. Company signaled a strategic reduction in membership to improve profitability. | Plummeted -19.6% $348.92 -> $280.51 |
Apr 6, 2026 | CMS Finalizes 2027 MA Rates Details: CMS finalized the 2027 Medicare Advantage rate increase at 2.48%, significantly better than the initial 0.09% proposal, easing margin concerns for the segment. | Surged +9.37% $281.36 -> $307.73 |
Apr 21, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Reported improved Medical Care Ratio of 83.9%. Raised FY26 EPS guidance to >$18.25 despite a 700k member decline. Market cheered the profitability focus. | Surged +6.96% $323.48 -> $346.01 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.3x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, eroding moat, and 'Value Trap' valuation make this a high-risk investment, mandating a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
CRMD
SECTORUnlike UNH's mature, low-growth profile under regulatory siege, CRMD is in a high-growth phase with a unique, preventative product (DefenCath) facing no direct competition.
PTCT
SECTOROffers a higher-risk, higher-reward profile focused on biotech catalysts, avoiding the macro-regulatory battles UNH faces. A potential shift in FDA sentiment could de-risk its pipeline.
UnitedHealth Group is evolving from a traditional health insurer into an integrated healthcare services company, where the high-growth, high-margin Optum segment is becoming the primary driver of value.
Filter all news through the lens of the Optum growth and margin expansion story, and its increasing contribution to the overall enterprise.
Optum segment revenue growth exceeding 10% YoY; Optum's operating margin expanding; acquisitions that add to Optum's data, analytics, or care delivery capabilities; stabilization or growth in value-based care members.
Sustained deceleration in Optum's growth; significant margin compression in any Optum sub-segment; major regulatory changes targeting PBMs or vertical integration in healthcare; loss of a major client for OptumRx.
Quarterly fluctuations in UnitedHealthcare membership numbers; minor changes in the medical care ratio due to short-term utilization trends; political debates about healthcare reform without specific, actionable legislative proposals.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is currently focused on the performance of the Optum segment, particularly Optum Health, as a key driver for future growth and profitability. Following a period of elevated medical costs, signs of operational improvements and margin stabilization in this segment are a primary catalyst for a potential re-rating of the stock.
UnitedHealthcare (Health Insurance)
$345.2B TTM (77% of Total) · 6.6% MarginWhat It Is
Offers a full range of health benefit programs for individuals, employers, and Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries.
Who Pays & How
Serves 49.1 million consumers as of Q1 2026. Customers choose UnitedHealthcare for its large network of providers and efforts to manage healthcare costs.
Competition
Optum (Health Services)
$102.8B TTM (23% of Total) · 5.2% MarginWhat It Is
Provides pharmacy benefit management (Optum Rx), healthcare delivery and management (Optum Health), and data and analytics services (Optum Insight).
Who Pays & How
Serves payers, providers, employers, governments, life sciences companies, and consumers. They pay for services that aim to improve quality, reduce costs, and enhance the consumer experience.
Competition
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