Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (5/23/2026): $22.23 | Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (5/23/2026): $22.23Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.8% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -117%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.8% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -117%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Lower-than-Expected Q1 2026 Earnings Per Share (EPS). The Trade Desk reported a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.08 for Q1 2026, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $0.32 by $0.24.
2. Weak Q2 2026 Guidance. The company's financial outlook for Q2 2026 disappointed investors, with revenue guidance of at least $750 million falling 2.9% below analysts' estimates of $772.3 million. Additionally, the adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $260 million was below analyst expectations of $290.7 million.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.2% change in TTD stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.33 | 22.38 | -26.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,791 | 2,969 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.7% | 14.6% | -7.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.7 | 24.6 | -27.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 488 | 475 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -26.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 15.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.5% | 21.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -55.5% change in TTD stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.28 | 22.38 | -55.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,679 | 2,969 | 10.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 14.6% | -6.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 59.1 | 24.6 | -58.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 491 | 475 | 3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -55.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -55.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 20.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | 1.2% | 28.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -58.3% change in TTD stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -63.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.63 | 22.38 | -58.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,445 | 2,969 | 21.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.1% | 14.6% | -9.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 67.4 | 24.6 | -63.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 494 | 475 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -58.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -58.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 18.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | 22.5% | 22.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -65.2% change in TTD stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.34 | 22.38 | -65.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,578 | 2,969 | 88.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 14.6% | 330.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 589.6 | 24.6 | -95.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 489 | 475 | 3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -65.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -65.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 39.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 99.2% | 40.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TTD Return | 14% | -51% | 61% | 63% | -68% | -44% | -73% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -46% | 81% | 67% | 11% | 9% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TTD Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 33% | 75% | 68% | 52% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TTD Max Drawdown | -46% | -56% | -30% | -18% | -71% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -54% | -20% | -20% | -35% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Trade Desk (TTD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- It's like Booking.com or Expedia, but for advertisers to buy and optimize digital ad space.
- Salesforce for digital advertising campaigns.
- Think of it as Google Ads or Facebook Ads, but for buying and optimizing ads across the entire open internet.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Cloud-Based Advertising Platform: A self-service platform enabling buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels.
- Data and Value-Added Services: Supplementary services that provide insights and additional tools to enhance advertising campaign performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) primarily sells its cloud-based advertising platform and services to other companies, specifically **advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers**. These entities use TTD's platform to manage digital advertising campaigns on behalf of their advertiser clients. While Trade Desk serves thousands of individual advertising agencies globally, many of these agencies are subsidiaries of larger, publicly traded advertising holding companies. These holding companies represent a significant portion of the global advertising spend and therefore, their networks of agencies constitute a major part of Trade Desk's customer base. The major customer companies (or the parent companies of the agencies that are direct customers) include:- WPP plc (Symbol: WPP)
- Omnicom Group Inc. (Symbol: OMC)
- Publicis Groupe S.A. (Symbol: PUBGY - ADR; PUB.PA - Euronext Paris)
- Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (Symbol: IPG)
- Dentsu Group Inc. (Symbol: DNTUY - ADR; 9697.T - TSE)
- Accenture Song (a division of Accenture plc, Symbol: ACN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) relies on several major suppliers to operate its demand-side platform and facilitate digital advertising campaigns. These include cloud infrastructure providers and supply-side platforms (SSPs) that provide access to ad inventory.
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Magnite (MGNI)
- PubMatic (PUBM)
- Google (GOOGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Jeff Green
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder
Jeff Green is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of The Trade Desk, which he founded in 2009. Prior to The Trade Desk, he co-founded AdECN, an online advertising exchange, in 2004. AdECN was acquired by Microsoft in 2007, after which Green spent two years leading the Microsoft Online Services Division.
Laura Schenkein
Chief Financial Officer
Laura Schenkein is the Chief Financial Officer at The Trade Desk, Inc. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing the company's financial operations, including financial planning, risk management, record-keeping, and financial reporting. She brings extensive experience in finance and leadership, having held prominent roles in both public and private companies across the technology sector.
Dave Pickles
Chief Technology Officer and Founder
Dave Pickles is the co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of The Trade Desk, overseeing all engineering, product innovation, and data science. He co-founded the company with Jeff Green in 2009. Earlier in his career, he was a senior engineer at the internet telephony startup CallWave, Inc. He later joined AdECN (which was acquired by Microsoft), where he and his team built the federated exchange for real-time bidding.
Samantha Jacobson
Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President
Samantha Jacobson serves as Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, managing strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives. She joined The Trade Desk after six years at Oracle, where she managed the global business development and strategy team. Before Oracle, Jacobson was at Datalogix, where she developed partnerships with major industry players such as Twitter, Pinterest, Microsoft, Google, and Apple. She also held various business development, partner management, and strategy positions at companies including eBay and American Express prior to Datalogix.
Ian Colley
Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President
Ian Colley is the Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, leading global communications, editorial content, content marketing, and social media. Before joining The Trade Desk, Colley spent over 20 years at IBM, where he led communications for various divisions, including IBM Cloud, IBM Finance, IBM Global Services, and IBM Europe.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for The Trade Desk (TTD) are primarily concentrated in the highly dynamic and competitive digital advertising technology sector.
- Intense Competition from "Walled Gardens" and Consolidation of Ad Spend: The Trade Desk operates as an independent demand-side platform (DSP) in an industry facing significant competition from large, integrated technology companies often referred to as "walled gardens," such as Google, Meta (Facebook), and Amazon. These companies control vast amounts of first-party data and have proprietary advertising platforms, incentivizing advertisers to keep their spending within these ecosystems. This dynamic poses a continuous challenge to independent platforms like The Trade Desk in terms of market share, access to inventory, and overall growth prospects. For instance, Amazon's aggressive expansion in advertising, particularly in the Connected TV (CTV) market, and its partnerships with streaming platforms like Netflix, have intensified competitive pressures for TTD.
- Evolving Data Privacy Regulations and Cookie Deprecation: The Trade Desk's core business of enabling data-driven digital advertising campaigns is highly dependent on the collection and utilization of user data. The ongoing shift in the digital advertising landscape, driven by stricter global data privacy regulations (like GDPR and CCPA) and the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, presents a significant risk. While The Trade Desk has invested in privacy-centric identity solutions such as Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), their effectiveness, widespread adoption, and compliance with evolving privacy laws are subject to continuous scrutiny and potential legal challenges, including class-action lawsuits alleging privacy violations.
- Ad Fraud, Brand Safety, and Lack of Transparency in the Programmatic Supply Chain: As a programmatic advertising platform, The Trade Desk is exposed to inherent industry risks related to ad fraud and brand safety. Ad fraud, which includes tactics like fake impressions, bot traffic, pixel stuffing, and ad stacking, can deplete advertiser budgets with no real engagement. Furthermore, brand safety concerns arise when automated ad placements result in advertisements appearing alongside inappropriate, offensive, or irrelevant content, potentially harming a brand's reputation. The complex and sometimes opaque nature of the programmatic advertising supply chain can also lead to a lack of transparency for advertisers regarding ad placements and associated costs, which The Trade Desk must continuously address to maintain client trust and platform integrity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolving privacy regulations and platform policies from major technology companies. This includes the impending deprecation of third-party cookies in web browsers like Google Chrome, as well as increased restrictions on app tracking and data usage from platforms like Apple (e.g., App Tracking Transparency framework). These shifts fundamentally challenge the data-driven targeting and measurement capabilities upon which The Trade Desk's self-service cloud-based advertising platform relies, potentially favoring "walled garden" ecosystems that control their own first-party data. While TTD is actively developing alternative identity solutions, the successful adoption and effectiveness of these solutions across the fragmented digital advertising landscape represent a significant, ongoing threat to its core business model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (symbol: TTD) operates within substantial addressable markets for its digital advertising platform and services. The company itself estimates its total addressable market to be approximately $1 trillion globally. Here's a breakdown of the addressable markets for its main products and services:- Global Digital Advertising Market: The global digital advertising market is projected to reach approximately $786.22 billion by 2026 and is expected to surpass $850 billion in 2026. Another estimate suggests the global online advertising market size will grow from $416.65 billion in 2026 to $1344.68 billion by 2034. The broader total addressable market for digital advertising is projected to expand from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion by 2034.
- Global Programmatic Advertising Market: The global programmatic advertising market size is estimated to be approximately $0.72 trillion (USD 720 billion) in 2026, with projections to reach $1.17 trillion by 2031. Another report indicates the global programmatic advertising market is likely to be valued at US$273.7 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach US$975.1 billion by 2033. Global programmatic ad spend is also forecast to surpass US$200 billion in 2026.
- Connected TV (CTV) Advertising Market: Global CTV ad spending is projected to surpass $45 billion by the end of 2026. For the U.S. specifically, CTV ad spending is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026. Another estimate for U.S. CTV advertising spending projects it will reach $32.57 billion in 2026.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Growth in Connected TV (CTV) Advertising: Connected TV remains a significant growth driver, with the company consistently reporting strong performance in this channel. The Trade Desk's platform is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of CTV, which is central to its long-term growth strategy.
- Advancements in AI-driven Innovation with the Kokai Platform: The Trade Desk's AI-powered platform, Kokai, is crucial for future performance and innovation. Nearly all clients are currently running campaigns through Kokai, and the company aims to demonstrate that its AI consistently delivers superior results in an open, multi-publisher environment. Potential partnerships, such as those reportedly explored with OpenAI for AI-driven ad inventory, further underscore the importance of AI in its growth trajectory.
- Expansion in Retail Media and Optimization of the Open Internet Supply Chain: The company is focused on expanding its retail data marketplace and simplifying measurement, user experience, and billing. The Trade Desk is also dedicated to improving the overall supply chain of the open internet, positioning itself to capture a larger share of the global advertising market. The increasing ad supply further strengthens the value proposition of independent, inventory-neutral platforms like The Trade Desk.
- Increasing Advertiser Demand and Programmatic Advertising Adoption: The Trade Desk benefits from the ongoing shift of advertisers towards data-driven programmatic and streaming-first channels. As brands increasingly rely on automated ad buying to manage campaigns and optimize spending with real-time data, The Trade Desk's robust position in programmatic advertising is expected to fuel continued revenue expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlCapital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- The Trade Desk utilized approximately $1.4 billion of cash to repurchase its Class A common stock in the year ended December 31, 2025, at an average repurchase price of $52.60.
- As of February 25, 2026, the board of directors authorized an additional $350 million for share repurchases, bringing the total amount available for future repurchases of Class A common stock to $500 million.
- Annual share buybacks amounted to $646.597 million in 2023 and $234.784 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Stock-based compensation for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, was $1.259 billion, showing a 4.47% increase year-over-year.
- Stock-based compensation was $494.7 million in 2024 and $491.6 million in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 reached $197 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
- Capital expenditures were $98.238 million in 2024 and $46.79 million in 2023, the latter being a five-year low.
- Expected capital expenditures are $187.6 million for 2026 and $196.6 million for 2027, primarily focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TTD.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04242026 | CMCSA | Comcast | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -2.9% |
| 04022026 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.0% | 7.0% | -8.9% |
| 03272026 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.4% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| 03062026 | CARG | CarGurus | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -8.3% |
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 31.6% | 31.6% | -5.7% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -57.2% | -54.2% | -61.0% |
| 03312025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.3% | -58.5% | -61.1% |
| 05312022 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.5% | 34.6% | -23.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 157.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 874.9 |
| Rev LTM | 177,054 |
| Op Inc LTM | 57,472 |
| FCF LTM | 10,345 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 19,586 |
| CFO LTM | 80,670 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 67,948 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 66.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 874.9 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.6 |
| P/EBIT | 17.2 |
| P/E | 23.3 |
| P/CFO | 11.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 138.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 57.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $22.38 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/21/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -75.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $22.65 | $36.86 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -1.2% | -39.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 66.4% | 63.0% |
| Downside Capture | 29.43 | 129.00 |
| Upside Capture | -21.46 | -51.50 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 7.1% | 15.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.88 | 0.39 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 1.09 | 1.54 |
| Up Beta | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.36 | 1.84 | 1.60 |
| Down Beta | 8.38 | 1.36 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 2.00 | 1.98 |
| Up Capture | 60% | -11% | -1% | -16% | -15% | 68% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 19 | 25 | 51 | 122 | 386 |
| Down Capture | 259% | 5% | 144% | 159% | 104% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 38 | 73 | 126 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -70.1% | 63.2% | -1.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 16.0% | 13.2% | 0.87 | 22.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 15.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | -4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | -1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 7.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.5% | 41.7% | -0.73 | 17.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -15.1% | 67.1% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.7% | 20.6% | 0.38 | 53.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 55.3% | 0.42 | 30.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | 21.5% | 68.5% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.6% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 53.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 46.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 30.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.2% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 17.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.7% | -13.1% | |
| 1/26/2026 | -7.5% | -17.0% | -31.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -5.0% | 1.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 17.5% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -10.5% | -13.8% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 678.00 Mil | -19.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 840.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 195.00 Mil | -48.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 375.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 840.00 Mil | 17.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 717.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 375.00 Mil | 35.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 277.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 30.45 | 102,828 | 3,131,113 | 59,256 | Form | |
| 2 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Family Trust | Sell | 3092026 | 30.48 | 50,000 | Form | |||
| 3 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 25.08 | 2,314,304 | 58,042,744 | 150,480,000 | Form |
| 4 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 24.97 | 1,685,696 | 42,091,829 | 92,031,829 | Form |
| 5 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 23.98 | 2,000,000 | 47,966,693 | 47,966,693 | Form |
TTD Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. While the upside potential from a re-acceleration is significant (~2.8x the downside), the path is fraught with risk. The competitive moat is actively being contested by a formidable rival (Amazon), and a major customer dispute threatens its pricing power. The valuation remains speculative, requiring a return to stronger growth that has not yet materialized. This balance of a compelling long-term secular story against severe near-term competitive and execution risks warrants a neutral, 'Market Weight' rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: High-Beta Compounder, Secondary: Transition / Profit PivotThe market primarily values TTD on its future growth potential (Type A), making it highly sensitive to revenue deceleration. However, given the recent slowdown to low double-digit growth, increasing competition, and a mature margin profile, it is also exhibiting traits of a former high-flyer pivoting to a more mature operational focus (Type F).
INVESTMENT THESIS
The Trade Desk is the leading independent demand-side platform (DSP), uniquely positioned to capture the secular shift of advertising budgets from linear TV to Connected TV (CTV) and the growth of retail media. Its Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) solution is becoming a critical industry standard for the post-cookie 'open internet,' creating a durable competitive advantage.
- CTV represents over 50% of the business and is the fastest-growing channel.
- Customer retention has been consistently above 95% for over ten years, indicating a sticky platform.
- New Joint Business Partnership (JBP) signings surged 55% YoY in Q1 2026, a leading indicator of strong future client commitment and spend.
- The U.S. CTV ad market is projected to grow at ~14%, more than double the pace of overall digital advertising.
PRIMARY RISK
Intensifying competition from 'walled gardens' like Google (DV360) and especially Amazon (DSP), who leverage massive proprietary first-party data, threatens to erode TTD's market share on the open internet. This is amplified by recent disputes with major agency partners, like Publicis Groupe, who are scrutinizing TTD's fee structures and transparency, potentially leading to structural pricing pressure.
- Publicis Groupe, estimated to be >10% of gross billings, advised clients to pause spending in March 2026, alleging issues with fee structures.
- Amazon's advertising revenue grew 24% YoY in its latest quarter, significantly outpacing TTD's growth and indicating share shifts.
- Guidance for Q2 2026 revenue implies ~8% YoY growth, a significant deceleration from the 25% growth seen in Q1 2025.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| YoY Revenue Growth | Stabilization above 10%, re-acceleration to 15%+ | The primary driver of the stock's negative performance has been decelerating growth. A reversal of this trend is required for the bull thesis to play out. |
| Major Agency Relationships | Resolution of Publicis dispute, signing/expansion of new JBPs | The dispute with a key partner is a major overhang. A positive resolution or new major partnerships would de-risk the 'Anti-Alpha' thesis about pricing pressure. |
| Connected TV (CTV) Spend Growth | Continued growth significantly outpacing overall company growth | This is the core of the 'Alpha Driver'. Strong, durable growth in CTV is necessary to offset maturity and competition in other channels. |
Pricing Power vs. Competitive Encroachment
BULL VIEW
The 55% YoY surge in Joint Business Partnerships (JBPs) proves clients are committing to TTD's platform for the long term, making the Publicis dispute a temporary negotiation.
CORE TENSION
Can TTD's tech (UID2) and CTV leadership defend its premium take-rate against structural pressure from walled gardens (Amazon) and major agency partners (Publicis) pushing back?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Guidance for Q2 2026 revenue implies ~8% YoY growth, a significant deceleration from the 25% growth seen in Q1 2025, validating the bear case on slowing momentum.
BEAR VIEW
The Publicis dispute (>10% of billings) and Amazon's 24% YoY ad growth signal a permanent structural challenge to TTD's pricing power and market share.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Q2 Revenue Growth vs. the ~8.1% guided floor. Any commentary on the Publicis relationship and client spending trends is critical. |
July & October 2026 | Amazon Q2 & Q3 Earnings Watch: Amazon's advertising revenue growth rate. A continued ~24% YoY growth rate would confirm ongoing market share loss for TTD. |
Early November 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings & Q4 Guidance Watch: Q4 revenue guidance. Will the 2H 2026 re-acceleration, suggested by prior JBP growth, materialize? The market needs to see a return to double-digit growth. |
Ongoing (Next 6 months) | EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) Ruling Watch: A formal decision against a major partner like Google that restricts advertising data signals, potentially impairing TTD's targeting effectiveness. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 6, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results. Details from the provided data are limited, but the negative stock reaction suggests potential concerns from investors. | Fell notably by -3.77% $47.70 -> $45.90 |
Jan 26, 2026 | Interim CFO Appointed Details: The Trade Desk announced the appointment of Tahnil Davis as Interim CFO, following the abrupt termination of the previous CFO in January after a brief five-month tenure. | Plummeted -7.50% $36.55 -> $33.81 |
Feb 25, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported revenue of $846.8M (+14.3% YoY) and EPS of $0.59. Despite the beat, the report noted near-term headwinds from CPG and auto verticals. | Modest 0.88% gain $24.94 -> $25.16 |
Mar 17, 2026 | Securities Lawsuit Advancement Details: A U.S. District Court denied TTD's motion to dismiss a securities fraud class-action lawsuit related to disclosures about the 'Kokai' ad-buying platform. | Plummeted -7.42% $27.08 -> $25.07 |
Mar 19, 2026 | Publicis Dispute & Executive Departures Details: Reports confirmed Publicis Groupe (>10% of billings) advised clients to pause spending. Separately, the company disclosed multiple board member resignations, leading to noncompliance with Nasdaq rules. | Muted (-0.17%) $23.55 -> $23.51 |
May 7, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Reported 12% YoY revenue growth to $689M. Despite a revenue beat, stock fell after guidance for Q2 revenue of at least $750M implied significant deceleration to ~8% YoY. | Fell notably by -2.17% $24.01 -> $23.49 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.15x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, Contested moat, and Low visibility from decelerating growth mandate a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
PUBM
SECTORUnlike TTD, PubMatic's narrative is not currently impaired by a major client dispute. It has a clean balance sheet (no debt) and owns its infrastructure, offering a more efficient, profitable model.
The Trade Desk is solidifying its position as the primary independent platform for advertising on the open internet, leveraging the industry's shift away from cookies (via UID2 adoption) and towards data-driven, premium channels like Connected TV (CTV) and Retail Media.
Filter all news through the lens of TTD's strategic position as the default demand-side platform (DSP) for the non-walled garden internet, focusing on CTV and retail media growth.
Sustained customer retention >95%; major new Joint Business Partnership (JBP) signings with large advertisers or agencies; announcements of exclusive inventory partnerships in CTV or retail media; wider industry adoption of UID2 as the post-cookie identity standard.
Deceleration in revenue growth below management's guidance; significant customer churn or loss of a major agency holding company; aggressive competitive moves by walled gardens (Google, Amazon) into TTD's core CTV market; regulatory challenges to UID2 or data privacy frameworks.
Quarterly fluctuations in ad spend from specific verticals (e.g., CPG, Auto) - these are cyclical and already discussed by management; minor competitive feature announcements from smaller DSPs; executive departures that don't alter the core strategy (e.g., CSO to OpenAI, but remains on board).
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the accelerating shift of advertising budgets from linear television to programmatic CTV, where TTD has a leading position. This is coupled with the growth of retail media and the adoption of its UID2 identity solution, which positions it as a key beneficiary of the internet's move away from third-party cookies.
Programmatic Advertising Platform
$2.8B TTM (100% of Total) · 70% MarginWhat It Is
A unified demand-side platform (DSP) for omnichannel advertising campaigns. Key technologies include Koa (AI for bidding optimization), Kokai (updated AI/ML platform), and Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), a post-cookie identity solution.
Who Pays & How
Advertising agencies (e.g., Publicis, Omnicom) and large brand advertisers pay a percentage of their media spend to use the platform for its independence from 'walled gardens', access to broad open internet inventory (especially CTV), and advanced data-driven targeting capabilities.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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