Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (3/20/2026): $23.51 | Market Cap: $11.3 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (3/20/2026): $23.51Market Cap: $11.3 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -55% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -55% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Weak First Quarter 2026 Guidance Signaled Deceleration.
Despite beating Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings estimates with revenue of $847 million (up 14% year-over-year) and Adjusted EBITDA of $400 million (exceeding guidance by $25 million), Trade Desk provided a conservative outlook for the First Quarter of 2026. The company projected revenue growth of at least 10% year-over-year to $678 million, a deceleration compared to prior growth rates. This guidance also included an anticipated EBITDA margin compression to approximately 28.7% and a modest 6% projected EBITDA growth, indicating a shift to an "investment year" and raising investor concerns about future profitability and growth momentum for the growth stock.
2. Publicis Audit Report Raised Transparency Concerns.
Trade Desk shares experienced a significant decline, dropping 13% over two days in March 2026, following a Publicis audit report. Publicis, a major advertising holding company, raised concerns about Trade Desk's billing practices, fee transparency, improper fee layering, and insufficient proof of at-cost media pricing. This report led Publicis to advise its clients to avoid the platform, directly challenging Trade Desk's core promise of transparency and neutrality to advertisers.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -40.6% change in TTD stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.56 | 23.51 | -40.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,791 | 2,896 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.7% | 15.3% | -2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.0 | 25.5 | -42.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 488 | 480 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -40.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -40.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.5% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | -1.9% | 29.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -57.0% change in TTD stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -60.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.66 | 23.51 | -57.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,679 | 2,896 | 8.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 15.3% | -1.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 64.3 | 25.5 | -60.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 491 | 480 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -57.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -57.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 24.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 1.9% | 33.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -66.6% change in TTD stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.32 | 23.51 | -66.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,445 | 2,896 | 18.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.1% | 15.3% | -4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 88.4 | 25.5 | -71.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 494 | 480 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -66.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -66.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | 44.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 11.9% | 45.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -58.0% change in TTD stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.96 | 23.51 | -58.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,578 | 2,896 | 83.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 15.3% | 352.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 512.8 | 25.5 | -95.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 489 | 480 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -58.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -58.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.7% | 42.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 117.7% | 43.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TTD Return | 14% | -51% | 61% | 63% | -68% | -38% | -71% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -46% | 81% | 67% | 11% | 1% | 84% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TTD Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 33% | 75% | 68% | 52% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TTD Max Drawdown | -39% | -56% | -6% | -11% | -69% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -52% | -5% | -4% | -25% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 695 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 120 days |
Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -64.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -64.3% loss requires a 179.9% gain to breakeven.
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About Trade Desk (TTD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- It's like Booking.com or Expedia, but for advertisers to buy and optimize digital ad space.
- Salesforce for digital advertising campaigns.
- Think of it as Google Ads or Facebook Ads, but for buying and optimizing ads across the entire open internet.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Cloud-Based Advertising Platform: A self-service platform enabling buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels.
- Data and Value-Added Services: Supplementary services that provide insights and additional tools to enhance advertising campaign performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) primarily sells its cloud-based advertising platform and services to other companies, specifically **advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers**. These entities use TTD's platform to manage digital advertising campaigns on behalf of their advertiser clients. While Trade Desk serves thousands of individual advertising agencies globally, many of these agencies are subsidiaries of larger, publicly traded advertising holding companies. These holding companies represent a significant portion of the global advertising spend and therefore, their networks of agencies constitute a major part of Trade Desk's customer base. The major customer companies (or the parent companies of the agencies that are direct customers) include:- WPP plc (Symbol: WPP)
- Omnicom Group Inc. (Symbol: OMC)
- Publicis Groupe S.A. (Symbol: PUBGY - ADR; PUB.PA - Euronext Paris)
- Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (Symbol: IPG)
- Dentsu Group Inc. (Symbol: DNTUY - ADR; 9697.T - TSE)
- Accenture Song (a division of Accenture plc, Symbol: ACN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) relies on several major suppliers to operate its demand-side platform and facilitate digital advertising campaigns. These include cloud infrastructure providers and supply-side platforms (SSPs) that provide access to ad inventory.
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Magnite (MGNI)
- PubMatic (PUBM)
- Google (GOOGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Jeff Green
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder
Jeff Green is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of The Trade Desk, which he founded in 2009. Prior to The Trade Desk, he co-founded AdECN, an online advertising exchange, in 2004. AdECN was acquired by Microsoft in 2007, after which Green spent two years leading the Microsoft Online Services Division.
Laura Schenkein
Chief Financial Officer
Laura Schenkein is the Chief Financial Officer at The Trade Desk, Inc. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing the company's financial operations, including financial planning, risk management, record-keeping, and financial reporting. She brings extensive experience in finance and leadership, having held prominent roles in both public and private companies across the technology sector.
Dave Pickles
Chief Technology Officer and Founder
Dave Pickles is the co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of The Trade Desk, overseeing all engineering, product innovation, and data science. He co-founded the company with Jeff Green in 2009. Earlier in his career, he was a senior engineer at the internet telephony startup CallWave, Inc. He later joined AdECN (which was acquired by Microsoft), where he and his team built the federated exchange for real-time bidding.
Samantha Jacobson
Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President
Samantha Jacobson serves as Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, managing strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives. She joined The Trade Desk after six years at Oracle, where she managed the global business development and strategy team. Before Oracle, Jacobson was at Datalogix, where she developed partnerships with major industry players such as Twitter, Pinterest, Microsoft, Google, and Apple. She also held various business development, partner management, and strategy positions at companies including eBay and American Express prior to Datalogix.
Ian Colley
Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President
Ian Colley is the Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, leading global communications, editorial content, content marketing, and social media. Before joining The Trade Desk, Colley spent over 20 years at IBM, where he led communications for various divisions, including IBM Cloud, IBM Finance, IBM Global Services, and IBM Europe.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for The Trade Desk (TTD) are primarily concentrated in the highly dynamic and competitive digital advertising technology sector.
- Intense Competition from "Walled Gardens" and Consolidation of Ad Spend: The Trade Desk operates as an independent demand-side platform (DSP) in an industry facing significant competition from large, integrated technology companies often referred to as "walled gardens," such as Google, Meta (Facebook), and Amazon. These companies control vast amounts of first-party data and have proprietary advertising platforms, incentivizing advertisers to keep their spending within these ecosystems. This dynamic poses a continuous challenge to independent platforms like The Trade Desk in terms of market share, access to inventory, and overall growth prospects. For instance, Amazon's aggressive expansion in advertising, particularly in the Connected TV (CTV) market, and its partnerships with streaming platforms like Netflix, have intensified competitive pressures for TTD.
- Evolving Data Privacy Regulations and Cookie Deprecation: The Trade Desk's core business of enabling data-driven digital advertising campaigns is highly dependent on the collection and utilization of user data. The ongoing shift in the digital advertising landscape, driven by stricter global data privacy regulations (like GDPR and CCPA) and the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, presents a significant risk. While The Trade Desk has invested in privacy-centric identity solutions such as Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), their effectiveness, widespread adoption, and compliance with evolving privacy laws are subject to continuous scrutiny and potential legal challenges, including class-action lawsuits alleging privacy violations.
- Ad Fraud, Brand Safety, and Lack of Transparency in the Programmatic Supply Chain: As a programmatic advertising platform, The Trade Desk is exposed to inherent industry risks related to ad fraud and brand safety. Ad fraud, which includes tactics like fake impressions, bot traffic, pixel stuffing, and ad stacking, can deplete advertiser budgets with no real engagement. Furthermore, brand safety concerns arise when automated ad placements result in advertisements appearing alongside inappropriate, offensive, or irrelevant content, potentially harming a brand's reputation. The complex and sometimes opaque nature of the programmatic advertising supply chain can also lead to a lack of transparency for advertisers regarding ad placements and associated costs, which The Trade Desk must continuously address to maintain client trust and platform integrity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolving privacy regulations and platform policies from major technology companies. This includes the impending deprecation of third-party cookies in web browsers like Google Chrome, as well as increased restrictions on app tracking and data usage from platforms like Apple (e.g., App Tracking Transparency framework). These shifts fundamentally challenge the data-driven targeting and measurement capabilities upon which The Trade Desk's self-service cloud-based advertising platform relies, potentially favoring "walled garden" ecosystems that control their own first-party data. While TTD is actively developing alternative identity solutions, the successful adoption and effectiveness of these solutions across the fragmented digital advertising landscape represent a significant, ongoing threat to its core business model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (symbol: TTD) operates within substantial addressable markets for its digital advertising platform and services. The company itself estimates its total addressable market to be approximately $1 trillion globally. Here's a breakdown of the addressable markets for its main products and services:- Global Digital Advertising Market: The global digital advertising market is projected to reach approximately $786.22 billion by 2026 and is expected to surpass $850 billion in 2026. Another estimate suggests the global online advertising market size will grow from $416.65 billion in 2026 to $1344.68 billion by 2034. The broader total addressable market for digital advertising is projected to expand from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion by 2034.
- Global Programmatic Advertising Market: The global programmatic advertising market size is estimated to be approximately $0.72 trillion (USD 720 billion) in 2026, with projections to reach $1.17 trillion by 2031. Another report indicates the global programmatic advertising market is likely to be valued at US$273.7 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach US$975.1 billion by 2033. Global programmatic ad spend is also forecast to surpass US$200 billion in 2026.
- Connected TV (CTV) Advertising Market: Global CTV ad spending is projected to surpass $45 billion by the end of 2026. For the U.S. specifically, CTV ad spending is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026. Another estimate for U.S. CTV advertising spending projects it will reach $32.57 billion in 2026.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Growth in Connected TV (CTV) Advertising: Connected TV remains a significant growth driver, with the company consistently reporting strong performance in this channel. The Trade Desk's platform is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of CTV, which is central to its long-term growth strategy.
- Advancements in AI-driven Innovation with the Kokai Platform: The Trade Desk's AI-powered platform, Kokai, is crucial for future performance and innovation. Nearly all clients are currently running campaigns through Kokai, and the company aims to demonstrate that its AI consistently delivers superior results in an open, multi-publisher environment. Potential partnerships, such as those reportedly explored with OpenAI for AI-driven ad inventory, further underscore the importance of AI in its growth trajectory.
- Expansion in Retail Media and Optimization of the Open Internet Supply Chain: The company is focused on expanding its retail data marketplace and simplifying measurement, user experience, and billing. The Trade Desk is also dedicated to improving the overall supply chain of the open internet, positioning itself to capture a larger share of the global advertising market. The increasing ad supply further strengthens the value proposition of independent, inventory-neutral platforms like The Trade Desk.
- Increasing Advertiser Demand and Programmatic Advertising Adoption: The Trade Desk benefits from the ongoing shift of advertisers towards data-driven programmatic and streaming-first channels. As brands increasingly rely on automated ad buying to manage campaigns and optimize spending with real-time data, The Trade Desk's robust position in programmatic advertising is expected to fuel continued revenue expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlCapital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- The Trade Desk utilized approximately $1.4 billion of cash to repurchase its Class A common stock in the year ended December 31, 2025, at an average repurchase price of $52.60.
- As of February 25, 2026, the board of directors authorized an additional $350 million for share repurchases, bringing the total amount available for future repurchases of Class A common stock to $500 million.
- Annual share buybacks amounted to $646.597 million in 2023 and $234.784 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Stock-based compensation for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, was $1.259 billion, showing a 4.47% increase year-over-year.
- Stock-based compensation was $494.7 million in 2024 and $491.6 million in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 reached $197 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
- Capital expenditures were $98.238 million in 2024 and $46.79 million in 2023, the latter being a five-year low.
- Expected capital expenditures are $187.6 million for 2026 and $196.6 million for 2027, primarily focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TTD.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.7% |
| 02132026 | TRIP | Tripadvisor | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 02062026 | OMC | Omnicom | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.1% | 22.1% | -3.7% |
| 02062026 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.6% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 01302026 | RBLX | Roblox | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -7.9% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -53.8% | -53.8% | -53.8% |
| 03312025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.3% | -56.5% | -56.5% |
| 05312022 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.5% | 34.6% | -23.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 870.3 |
| Rev LTM | 169,578 |
| Op Inc LTM | 54,617 |
| FCF LTM | 13,686 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 20,717 |
| CFO LTM | 76,468 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 64,961 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 870.3 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.4 |
| P/E | 25.4 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 147.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 82.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.51 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 11.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/21/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -73.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $29.27 | $49.11 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -19.7% | -52.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 60.4% | 70.2% |
| Downside Capture | 200.38 | 129.84 |
| Upside Capture | -56.15 | 17.27 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.8% | 42.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.42 | 2.10 | 1.66 | 1.32 | 1.66 | 1.63 |
| Up Beta | 2.67 | 3.42 | 2.86 | 1.73 | 1.94 | 1.70 |
| Down Beta | 2.97 | 1.87 | 1.65 | 1.74 | 2.03 | 1.98 |
| Up Capture | 34% | -24% | -31% | -28% | 22% | 105% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 10 | 23 | 55 | 124 | 390 |
| Down Capture | 382% | 339% | 260% | 189% | 134% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 30 | 37 | 68 | 123 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -56.3% | 70.1% | -0.86 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 19.1% | 18.2% | 0.82 | 43.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.78 | 42.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.5% | 26.8% | 1.59 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.5% | 17.4% | 0.86 | 16.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 16.1% | 0.08 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -14.3% | 44.4% | -0.22 | 24.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -20.7% | 68.1% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.7% | 20.7% | 0.38 | 54.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.3% | 17.0% | 0.57 | 50.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 17.4% | 1.01 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 10.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 33.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.4% | 56.7% | 0.30 | 30.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | 22.1% | 68.7% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.3% | 22.4% | 0.50 | 53.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 47.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 15.7% | 0.71 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 14.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 31.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 17.8% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/26/2026 | -7.5% | -17.0% | -31.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -5.0% | 1.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 17.5% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -10.1% | -13.8% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cunningham, Andrea Lee | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 48.20 | 1,403 | 67,625 | 242,687 | Form | |
| 2 | Grant, Jay R | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 91.18 | 51,290 | 4,676,679 | 19,899,912 | Form |
| 3 | Schenkein, Laura | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192025 | 76.66 | 4,809 | 368,662 | 57,181,440 | Form |
| 4 | Wells, David B | Direct | Sell | 5152025 | 79.88 | 28,638 | 2,287,603 | 5,350,762 | Form | |
| 5 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | See Footnote | Sell | 5142025 | 80.03 | 26,684 | 2,135,521 | 1,361,951 | Form |
TTD Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a highly attractive risk/reward profile. The probability-adjusted skew of 4.40x is well above the 2.0x threshold for a Tier 1 rating. This is driven by the assessment that TTD's competitive moat is widening within a strong secular growth sector (Regime A), warranting a 70% probability for the upside case. While the risk of competition and deceleration is tangible, the evidence of TTD's superior technology, market position, and sticky customer base suggests the bull case is significantly more likely than the bear case over a 12-month horizon.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderTTD is a classic Type A stock, characterized by high growth in a secularly expanding market (programmatic advertising), a significant competitive moat, and a correspondingly high valuation. The investment thesis hinges on the durability of its revenue growth and the strength of its competitive advantages against walled gardens.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis is that TTD, as the largest independent demand-side platform (DSP), is uniquely positioned to capture a disproportionate share of advertising budgets shifting to programmatic channels. This is primarily driven by the secular explosion in Connected TV (CTV) and the rise of retail media, where TTD's data-driven, objective, and transparent model is a superior value proposition for large advertisers compared to the conflicting incentives of 'walled gardens' like Google and Amazon.
- CTV is the company's largest and fastest-growing channel, now accounting for around 50% of the business.
- TTD is outpacing major competitors, with 18% revenue growth in Q3 2025 (22% ex-political) compared to Google's 12% advertising revenue growth in the same period.
- Customer retention has remained above 95% for 11 consecutive years, proving the platform's stickiness and high switching costs.
- The company has a minuscule 0.38% penetration of its core $766B programmatic advertising market, indicating a massive runway for growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that the recent trend of decelerating YoY revenue growth is not cyclical but structural, caused by intensifying competition from walled gardens, particularly Amazon's DSP. Amazon's ability to leverage its vast first-party retail data and exclusive inventory presents a direct challenge to TTD's value proposition, potentially leading to market share loss and a compression of TTD's take-rate and valuation multiple.
- Year-over-year revenue growth has decelerated sequentially through 2025, from 25.5% in Q1 to 17.7% in Q3.
- Amazon has been aggressively enhancing its DSP, securing publisher deals and becoming the preferred transition partner for Microsoft Invest customers in late 2025.
- Industry reports from late 2025 indicate advertisers are increasingly using Amazon DSP as their primary platform, citing the power of its first-party retail data.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| YoY Revenue Growth Rate | > 20% | This is the primary metric the market is focused on. A re-acceleration above 20% is needed to restore the hyper-growth narrative and justify the premium valuation. Sustained growth below this level validates the bear case. |
| Customer Retention Rate | Maintain > 95% | This is the core indicator of TTD's competitive moat and the stickiness of its platform. Any material decline below 95% would signal a structural erosion of its competitive position and invalidate the long thesis. |
| Competitor Ad Revenue Growth (Specifically Amazon) | TTD Growth > Amazon Ad Growth | A direct measure of the primary 'Anti-Alpha' risk. If Amazon's advertising business consistently grows faster than TTD's, it is a clear signal of market share loss and a material threat to TTD's long-term trajectory. |
Growth Narrative Breakdown vs. Secular Endurance
BULL VIEW
Secular tailwinds from CTV and retail media, plus a superior independent platform (UID2, Kokai), will drive re-acceleration and continued market share gains from walled gardens.
CORE TENSION
Bears see clear revenue deceleration as a broken hyper-growth story. Bulls argue this is a cyclical dip in a durable, long-term shift to programmatic advertising.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Year-over-year revenue growth decelerated sequentially through 2025, from 25.5% in Q1 to 17.7% in Q3, indicating the growth slowdown is a persistent trend.
BEAR VIEW
Slowing growth is structural, driven by intensifying competition from Amazon's DSP and broad advertiser budget cuts, justifying significant multiple compression for the stock.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late February 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Guidance Watch: Full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance vs. consensus estimates. |
Late April 2026 (Q1 results) | Amazon's Advertising Segment Results Watch: Amazon's advertising revenue growth rate. |
April - May 2026 | Major Advertiser Earnings (e.g., P&G, Unilever) Watch: Commentary on 2026 marketing and advertising budget plans. |
Ongoing (Q1-Q2 2026) | EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) Enforcement Action Watch: Any ruling that structurally alters programmatic ad auctions or data sharing. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 7, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported decelerating growth and cited macro headwinds causing large brands to pull back ad spend. The stock plummeted on the weak outlook. | -38.6% $88.33 -> $54.23 |
Oct 1, 2025 | DIRECTV Partnership Details: TTD and DIRECTV announced plans to develop a custom TV operating system, expanding TTD's footprint in the connected TV ecosystem. The stock reaction was flat. | +0.6% $49.01 -> $49.32 |
Oct 7, 2025 | Competitor Strategic Partnership Details: Microsoft named Amazon DSP its preferred partner for customers transitioning from the sunsetting Microsoft Invest platform, a strategic win for a key TTD competitor. Stock reaction was flat. | +0.7% $53.14 -> $53.49 |
Oct 28, 2025 | New Chief Revenue Officer Appointed Details: The Trade Desk announced Anders Mortensen as the new Chief Revenue Officer. The stock fell notably amid broader market weakness and executive team changes. | -3.6% $53.61 -> $51.67 |
Nov 6, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, the stock crashed. The market focused on decelerating YoY growth (18%) and concerns about the 2026 outlook. | -6.3% $45.90 -> $43.00 |
Jan 26, 2026 | Abrupt CFO Departure Details: Company announced the termination of CFO Alex Kayyal after only five months. The stock fell notably on concerns about management instability and internal controls. | -4.8% $33.81 -> $32.19 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock trades with explosive volatility (4.1x S&P 500). The bearish sentiment, expensive valuation, and erratic guidance override the strong moat, forcing a conservative sizing until visibility on growth re-acceleration improves.
Diversification Alternatives
META
SECTOROwns a 'walled garden' with massive first-party data, insulating it from open internet cookie deprecation. Trades at a more reasonable valuation multiple.
IDCC
OTHEROffers a non-correlated tech investment focused on patent licensing, providing portfolio diversification away from cyclical advertising spend. Typically offers a strong dividend.
The Trade Desk is transitioning from a high-growth programmatic advertising leader to a more mature, profitable platform whose future re-rating depends on its ability to drive industry-wide adoption of its identity solution (UID2) and defend its take rate against the first-party data advantages of walled gardens like Google and Amazon.
Filter all news through the lens of growth re-acceleration and competitive positioning against walled gardens.
Connected TV (CTV) revenue growth outpacing overall company growth; significant new publisher or data partnerships for UID2; evidence of market share gains in international markets; revenue growth guidance for the next quarter returning to the high teens or >20%.
QoQ deceleration in gross spend on the platform; major advertisers choosing to shift spend to Amazon's DSP or Google's DV360, citing data advantages; downward pressure on the ~21.6% take rate; negative regulatory developments regarding user privacy or data handling that impact UID2's viability.
Short-term volatility in specific ad verticals like CPG or Auto, unless it persists for more than 2-3 quarters; quarterly earnings beats or misses of a few percentage points that don't change the overall growth trajectory; partnerships with smaller, niche publishers.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst for a valuation re-rate is the successful navigation of the post-cookie world through the broad adoption of Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) and the continued high-growth and margin expansion of the Connected TV (CTV) channel, which represents ~50% of the business and is growing faster than the company average. Success here would reaffirm TTD's position as the essential independent demand-side platform (DSP) for the open internet.
Programmatic Advertising Platform
$2.9B TTM (100% of Total) · 78.6% MarginWhat It Is
A unified, self-service, cloud-based platform for running advertising campaigns across various digital channels, including Connected TV (Video represented ~50% of spend in Q4 2025), Mobile (~30%), Audio (~6%), and Display. Key platform technologies include the Kokai AI engine and the Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) identity framework.
Who Pays & How
Primarily advertising agencies on behalf of major brands (including a majority of the S&P 500). They pay to get a transparent, objective, and data-rich tool to execute ad campaigns across the entire 'open internet' (i.e., not on Google or Meta's 'walled garden' properties). Lock-in is driven by the platform's technological sophistication, workflow integration with agencies, and high customer retention (>95%) suggesting significant switching costs.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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