Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (8/10/2026): $13.81 | Market Cap: $6.5 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (8/10/2026): $13.81Market Cap: $6.5 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 13% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -16% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.2 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -128%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.2 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -128%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Trade Desk (TTD) stock has lost about 40% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results. The Trade Desk (TTD) reported fiscal Q2 2026 results (period ended June 30, 2026) that significantly missed analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings. Revenue was $715.1 million, an increase of only 3% year-over-year, falling short of consensus estimates ranging from $752 million to $753 million and the company's own guidance of at least $750 million. Adjusted EPS for fiscal Q2 2026 was $0.34, missing various analyst estimates, including $0.40 and $0.41. Net income also saw a notable decline, dropping approximately 28.6% year-over-year.
2. Weak Fiscal Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance. The company's outlook for fiscal Q3 2026 was notably pessimistic, with revenue guidance of "at least $650 million". This forecast was substantially below Wall Street's expectations of approximately $807 million and implies a potential 12% year-over-year revenue decline, which would mark the first such decrease since the company's IPO (excluding pandemic impacts). This guidance also suggested a sequential decline in revenue from fiscal Q2 2026.
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Trade Desk (TTD) stock has lost about 40% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results. The Trade Desk (TTD) reported fiscal Q2 2026 results (period ended June 30, 2026) that significantly missed analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings. Revenue was $715.1 million, an increase of only 3% year-over-year, falling short of consensus estimates ranging from $752 million to $753 million and the company's own guidance of at least $750 million. Adjusted EPS for fiscal Q2 2026 was $0.34, missing various analyst estimates, including $0.40 and $0.41. Net income also saw a notable decline, dropping approximately 28.6% year-over-year.
2. Weak Fiscal Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance. The company's outlook for fiscal Q3 2026 was notably pessimistic, with revenue guidance of "at least $650 million". This forecast was substantially below Wall Street's expectations of approximately $807 million and implies a potential 12% year-over-year revenue decline, which would mark the first such decrease since the company's IPO (excluding pandemic impacts). This guidance also suggested a sequential decline in revenue from fiscal Q2 2026.
3. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions. Following the disappointing fiscal Q2 results and weak guidance, numerous investment firms downgraded TTD's stock rating and drastically cut their price targets. For example, Susquehanna downgraded the stock to Neutral from Positive and reduced its price target from $34 to $14. BMO Capital downgraded TTD to Hold from Buy, lowering its price target from $38 to $15. Baird also downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, slashing its price target from $27 to $9. Truist Financial reduced its price target from $35 to $16 while downgrading to Hold from Buy. The consensus price target for TTD stock subsequently dropped to approximately $20.85.
4. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Soft Advertising Demand. Management cited broader macroeconomic challenges as a key factor in the slowdown, including weak consumer spending, tariffs, and elevated oil prices, which created a difficult operating environment for customers. These pressures particularly impacted major advertising verticals such as consumer packaged goods (CPG) and automotive, which collectively represent about 25% of The Trade Desk's business. Additionally, advertisers demonstrated a shift towards lower-cost, lower-decisioning methods like programmatic guaranteed, reducing spending on the TTD platform.
5. Internal Execution Challenges and Leadership Uncertainty. The company acknowledged "execution gaps" and internal missteps for the underperformance in fiscal Q2 2026. This period also saw significant leadership changes, including the replacement of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Chief Marketing Officer (CMO), and commercial chief. Such high-level management turnover and the acknowledgment of internal issues contributed to investor uncertainty regarding the company's operational stability and future growth trajectory.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -41.5% change in TTD stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.59 | 13.80 | -41.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,896 | 2,990 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.3% | 13.6% | -11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.5 | 15.9 | -37.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 480 | 468 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -41.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -41.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 8.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | -4.5% | 40.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.5% change in TTD stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.33 | 13.80 | -54.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,791 | 2,990 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.7% | 13.6% | -13.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.7 | 15.9 | -52.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 488 | 468 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -54.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -54.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 13.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.1% | 33.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -84.1% change in TTD stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -84.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.96 | 13.80 | -84.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,570 | 2,990 | 16.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.0% | 13.6% | -15.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 104.4 | 15.9 | -84.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 495 | 468 | 5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -84.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -84.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | 4.6% | 27.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -84.9% change in TTD stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -97.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 91.26 | 13.80 | -84.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,645 | 2,990 | 81.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.7% | 13.6% | 189.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 578.1 | 15.9 | -97.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 490 | 468 | 4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -84.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -84.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 36.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | 66.8% | 39.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TTD Return | 14% | -51% | 61% | 63% | -68% | -53% | -78% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -46% | 81% | 67% | 11% | 9% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TTD Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 12% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 33% | 75% | 68% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TTD Max Drawdown | -46% | -56% | -30% | -18% | -71% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -54% | -20% | -20% | -35% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Trade Desk (TTD)
Trade Desk (TTD) is a technology company that operates a self-service, cloud-based platform designed for the programmatic advertising industry. The company's core function is to empower ad buyers, typically advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers, to create, manage, and optimize their digital advertising campaigns.
The platform facilitates data-driven ad purchasing across a comprehensive range of digital formats and channels. This includes display, video, audio, native advertising, and social media, reaching consumers on various devices such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV (CTV). Beyond its robust ad campaign management tools, Trade Desk also provides supplementary data and other value-added services to enhance campaign performance and insights.
Its primary customer base consists of advertising agencies and other service providers who utilize the platform to efficiently buy and manage digital ad inventory on behalf of their advertiser clients, making Trade Desk a key player on the "buy-side" of the digital advertising ecosystem.
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- It's like Booking.com or Expedia, but for advertisers to buy and optimize digital ad space.
- Salesforce for digital advertising campaigns.
- Think of it as Google Ads or Facebook Ads, but for buying and optimizing ads across the entire open internet.
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- Cloud-Based Advertising Platform: A self-service platform enabling buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels.
- Data and Value-Added Services: Supplementary services that provide insights and additional tools to enhance advertising campaign performance.
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- WPP plc (Symbol: WPP)
- Omnicom Group Inc. (Symbol: OMC)
- Publicis Groupe S.A. (Symbol: PUBGY - ADR; PUB.PA - Euronext Paris)
- Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (Symbol: IPG)
- Dentsu Group Inc. (Symbol: DNTUY - ADR; 9697.T - TSE)
- Accenture Song (a division of Accenture plc, Symbol: ACN)
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The Trade Desk (TTD) relies on several major suppliers to operate its demand-side platform and facilitate digital advertising campaigns. These include cloud infrastructure providers and supply-side platforms (SSPs) that provide access to ad inventory.
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Magnite (MGNI)
- PubMatic (PUBM)
- Google (GOOGL)
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Jeff Green
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder
Jeff Green is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of The Trade Desk, which he founded in 2009. Prior to The Trade Desk, he co-founded AdECN, an online advertising exchange, in 2004. AdECN was acquired by Microsoft in 2007, after which Green spent two years leading the Microsoft Online Services Division.
Laura Schenkein
Chief Financial Officer
Laura Schenkein is the Chief Financial Officer at The Trade Desk, Inc. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing the company's financial operations, including financial planning, risk management, record-keeping, and financial reporting. She brings extensive experience in finance and leadership, having held prominent roles in both public and private companies across the technology sector.
Dave Pickles
Chief Technology Officer and Founder
Dave Pickles is the co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of The Trade Desk, overseeing all engineering, product innovation, and data science. He co-founded the company with Jeff Green in 2009. Earlier in his career, he was a senior engineer at the internet telephony startup CallWave, Inc. He later joined AdECN (which was acquired by Microsoft), where he and his team built the federated exchange for real-time bidding.
Samantha Jacobson
Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President
Samantha Jacobson serves as Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, managing strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives. She joined The Trade Desk after six years at Oracle, where she managed the global business development and strategy team. Before Oracle, Jacobson was at Datalogix, where she developed partnerships with major industry players such as Twitter, Pinterest, Microsoft, Google, and Apple. She also held various business development, partner management, and strategy positions at companies including eBay and American Express prior to Datalogix.
Ian Colley
Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President
Ian Colley is the Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, leading global communications, editorial content, content marketing, and social media. Before joining The Trade Desk, Colley spent over 20 years at IBM, where he led communications for various divisions, including IBM Cloud, IBM Finance, IBM Global Services, and IBM Europe.
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The key risks for The Trade Desk (TTD) are primarily concentrated in the highly dynamic and competitive digital advertising technology sector.
- Intense Competition from "Walled Gardens" and Consolidation of Ad Spend: The Trade Desk operates as an independent demand-side platform (DSP) in an industry facing significant competition from large, integrated technology companies often referred to as "walled gardens," such as Google, Meta (Facebook), and Amazon. These companies control vast amounts of first-party data and have proprietary advertising platforms, incentivizing advertisers to keep their spending within these ecosystems. This dynamic poses a continuous challenge to independent platforms like The Trade Desk in terms of market share, access to inventory, and overall growth prospects. For instance, Amazon's aggressive expansion in advertising, particularly in the Connected TV (CTV) market, and its partnerships with streaming platforms like Netflix, have intensified competitive pressures for TTD.
- Evolving Data Privacy Regulations and Cookie Deprecation: The Trade Desk's core business of enabling data-driven digital advertising campaigns is highly dependent on the collection and utilization of user data. The ongoing shift in the digital advertising landscape, driven by stricter global data privacy regulations (like GDPR and CCPA) and the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, presents a significant risk. While The Trade Desk has invested in privacy-centric identity solutions such as Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), their effectiveness, widespread adoption, and compliance with evolving privacy laws are subject to continuous scrutiny and potential legal challenges, including class-action lawsuits alleging privacy violations.
- Ad Fraud, Brand Safety, and Lack of Transparency in the Programmatic Supply Chain: As a programmatic advertising platform, The Trade Desk is exposed to inherent industry risks related to ad fraud and brand safety. Ad fraud, which includes tactics like fake impressions, bot traffic, pixel stuffing, and ad stacking, can deplete advertiser budgets with no real engagement. Furthermore, brand safety concerns arise when automated ad placements result in advertisements appearing alongside inappropriate, offensive, or irrelevant content, potentially harming a brand's reputation. The complex and sometimes opaque nature of the programmatic advertising supply chain can also lead to a lack of transparency for advertisers regarding ad placements and associated costs, which The Trade Desk must continuously address to maintain client trust and platform integrity.
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Evolving privacy regulations and platform policies from major technology companies. This includes the impending deprecation of third-party cookies in web browsers like Google Chrome, as well as increased restrictions on app tracking and data usage from platforms like Apple (e.g., App Tracking Transparency framework). These shifts fundamentally challenge the data-driven targeting and measurement capabilities upon which The Trade Desk's self-service cloud-based advertising platform relies, potentially favoring "walled garden" ecosystems that control their own first-party data. While TTD is actively developing alternative identity solutions, the successful adoption and effectiveness of these solutions across the fragmented digital advertising landscape represent a significant, ongoing threat to its core business model.
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- Global Digital Advertising Market: The global digital advertising market is projected to reach approximately $786.22 billion by 2026 and is expected to surpass $850 billion in 2026. Another estimate suggests the global online advertising market size will grow from $416.65 billion in 2026 to $1344.68 billion by 2034. The broader total addressable market for digital advertising is projected to expand from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion by 2034.
- Global Programmatic Advertising Market: The global programmatic advertising market size is estimated to be approximately $0.72 trillion (USD 720 billion) in 2026, with projections to reach $1.17 trillion by 2031. Another report indicates the global programmatic advertising market is likely to be valued at US$273.7 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach US$975.1 billion by 2033. Global programmatic ad spend is also forecast to surpass US$200 billion in 2026.
- Connected TV (CTV) Advertising Market: Global CTV ad spending is projected to surpass $45 billion by the end of 2026. For the U.S. specifically, CTV ad spending is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026. Another estimate for U.S. CTV advertising spending projects it will reach $32.57 billion in 2026.
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The Trade Desk (TTD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Growth in Connected TV (CTV) Advertising: Connected TV remains a significant growth driver, with the company consistently reporting strong performance in this channel. The Trade Desk's platform is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of CTV, which is central to its long-term growth strategy.
- Advancements in AI-driven Innovation with the Kokai Platform: The Trade Desk's AI-powered platform, Kokai, is crucial for future performance and innovation. Nearly all clients are currently running campaigns through Kokai, and the company aims to demonstrate that its AI consistently delivers superior results in an open, multi-publisher environment. Potential partnerships, such as those reportedly explored with OpenAI for AI-driven ad inventory, further underscore the importance of AI in its growth trajectory.
- Expansion in Retail Media and Optimization of the Open Internet Supply Chain: The company is focused on expanding its retail data marketplace and simplifying measurement, user experience, and billing. The Trade Desk is also dedicated to improving the overall supply chain of the open internet, positioning itself to capture a larger share of the global advertising market. The increasing ad supply further strengthens the value proposition of independent, inventory-neutral platforms like The Trade Desk.
- Increasing Advertiser Demand and Programmatic Advertising Adoption: The Trade Desk benefits from the ongoing shift of advertisers towards data-driven programmatic and streaming-first channels. As brands increasingly rely on automated ad buying to manage campaigns and optimize spending with real-time data, The Trade Desk's robust position in programmatic advertising is expected to fuel continued revenue expansion.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- The Trade Desk utilized approximately $1.4 billion of cash to repurchase its Class A common stock in the year ended December 31, 2025, at an average repurchase price of $52.60.
- As of February 25, 2026, the board of directors authorized an additional $350 million for share repurchases, bringing the total amount available for future repurchases of Class A common stock to $500 million.
- Annual share buybacks amounted to $646.597 million in 2023 and $234.784 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Stock-based compensation for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, was $1.259 billion, showing a 4.47% increase year-over-year.
- Stock-based compensation was $494.7 million in 2024 and $491.6 million in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 reached $197 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
- Capital expenditures were $98.238 million in 2024 and $46.79 million in 2023, the latter being a five-year low.
- Expected capital expenditures are $187.6 million for 2026 and $196.6 million for 2027, primarily focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 160.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 850.9 |
| Rev LTM | 183,571 |
| Op Inc LTM | 57,728 |
| FCF LTM | 10,504 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 17,316 |
| CFO LTM | 84,550 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 70,491 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 22.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 55.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 850.9 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 19.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 96.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 30.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.80 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/21/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -75.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $20.18 | $28.83 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -31.6% | -52.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.2% | 57.1% |
| Downside Capture | 137.82 | 141.81 |
| Upside Capture | -110.60 | -47.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.7% | 13.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.12 | 0.64 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 1.45 |
| Up Beta | -3.96 | -1.05 | -1.11 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 1.53 |
| Down Beta | 1.47 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 1.78 | 1.62 | 2.00 |
| Up Capture | 84% | 6% | -28% | -17% | -35% | 31% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 17 | 25 | 50 | 109 | 375 |
| Down Capture | 89% | 116% | 102% | 107% | 119% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 26 | 38 | 75 | 141 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -84.7% | 68.4% | -2.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 4.3% | 14.9% | 0.07 | 26.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 11.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | -3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 9.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.7% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 14.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -30.0% | 67.8% | -0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.2% | 20.9% | 0.26 | 53.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 48.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 32.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.0% | 53.0% | 0.36 | 31.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | 15.8% | 68.6% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.2% | 22.2% | 0.47 | 53.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 45.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.4% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 17.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -21.9% | ||
| 5/7/2026 | -1.7% | -13.1% | -17.3% |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.8% | 0.0% | -13.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -5.0% | 1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 17.5% | 14.1% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -10.5% | -13.6% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -21.9% | ||
| 5/7/2026 | -1.7% | -13.1% | -17.3% |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.8% | 0.0% | -13.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -5.0% | 1.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.5% |
| 2/15/2024 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| 11/9/2023 | -16.7% | -13.7% | -6.7% |
| 8/9/2023 | -4.7% | -10.1% | 3.7% |
| 5/10/2023 | -0.7% | 1.8% | 14.8% |
| 2/15/2023 | 32.8% | 13.0% | 17.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | -8.0% | 23.5% | 11.9% |
| 8/9/2022 | 36.2% | 35.3% | 18.1% |
| 5/10/2022 | -0.9% | 22.0% | 20.0% |
| 2/16/2022 | 0.5% | -7.9% | -18.8% |
| 11/8/2021 | 29.5% | 46.4% | 39.6% |
| 8/9/2021 | -3.2% | -3.7% | -10.4% |
| 5/10/2021 | -26.0% | -21.8% | -8.6% |
| 2/18/2021 | 6.7% | -10.9% | -13.4% |
| 11/5/2020 | 26.6% | 14.3% | 41.0% |
| 8/6/2020 | 2.6% | -1.9% | -8.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 17.5% | 14.1% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -10.5% | -13.6% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/7/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 650.00 Mil | -13.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 750.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 160.00 Mil | -38.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 260.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 678.00 Mil | -19.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 840.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 195.00 Mil | -48.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 375.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 678.00 Mil | -19.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 840.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 195.00 Mil | -48.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 375.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 840.00 Mil | 17.2% | Higher New | Actual: 717.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 375.00 Mil | 35.4% | Higher New | Actual: 277.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacobson, Samantha | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 21.14 | 53,681 | 1,134,816 | 276,913 | Form | |
| 2 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 30.45 | 102,828 | 3,131,113 | 59,256 | Form | |
| 3 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Family Trust | Sell | 3092026 | 30.48 | 50,000 | Form | |||
| 4 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 25.08 | 2,314,304 | 58,042,744 | 150,480,000 | Form |
| 5 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 24.97 | 1,685,696 | 42,091,829 | 92,031,829 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacobson, Samantha | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 21.14 | 53,681 | 1,134,816 | 276,913 | Form | |
| 2 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 30.45 | 102,828 | 3,131,113 | 59,256 | Form | |
| 3 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Family Trust | Sell | 3092026 | 30.48 | 50,000 | Form | |||
| 4 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 25.08 | 2,314,304 | 58,042,744 | 150,480,000 | Form |
| 5 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 24.97 | 1,685,696 | 42,091,829 | 92,031,829 | Form |
| 6 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 23.98 | 2,000,000 | 47,966,693 | 47,966,693 | Form |
| 7 | Cunningham, Andrea Lee | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 48.20 | 1,403 | 67,625 | 242,687 | Form | |
| 8 | Grant, Jay R | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 91.18 | 51,290 | 4,676,679 | 19,899,912 | Form |
TTD Trade Sentinel
Avoid
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment case is broken. Revenue growth has collapsed to 3% from double digits, and the company missed its own recent guidance while issuing a severe outlook reduction. This reflects both intense competitive pressure and internal execution failures. Until a new leadership team can demonstrate a return to predictable growth, the stock's trajectory remains highly uncertain.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Platform(Total Client Ad Spend on Platform) x (Platform Fee Percentage/Take Rate) Scaling operating expenses at a slower rate than the growth of client ad spend on the platform, thereby achieving operating leverage.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests core client commitment is strong, but not enough to counteract a severe cyclical downturn affecting the wider business.
- Revenue from clients with Joint Business Plans (JBPs) grew 6x faster than overall revenue.
- The number of clients with JBPs increased by 38% year-over-year to 217.
- The company's customer retention rate has remained above 95% for over a decade.
- International regions like EMEA and APAC grew almost 30% year-to-date, outpacing the total.
- Financial services, technology, and pharma verticals are reportedly growing well.
PRIMARY RISK
The company's premium, performance-based offering is losing ground as advertisers in key verticals prioritize lower-cost options from larger competitors amid macroeconomic pressure.
- Q2 revenue growth was 3%, while Google's search revenue grew 17%.
- Management stated some advertisers now focus on 'cheap media rather than the best media'.
- Q3 revenue guidance was lowered by 13.3%, and adjusted EBITDA guidance was cut by 38.5%.
- Weakness is concentrated in CPG and auto sectors, which represent around 25% of the business.
- Latest-quarter gross margin fell 4.0 percentage points, suggesting pricing pressure.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3% year-over-year for the quarter ended 6/30/2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year revenue growth trend is decelerating sharply. Management attributed the slowdown to difficult macroeconomic conditions for large advertisers, particularly in the CPG and auto sectors, and internal execution issues which the company is now focused on addressing. |
| Joint Business Plan (JBP) Growth | 217 clients under JBPs as of Q2 2026, a 38% year-over-year increase. - Stable | While the growth rate in the number of JBP clients has moderated, management emphasized that "revenue under JBPs grew at a rate of 6x higher than overall revenue" in the latest quarter. This is presented as a key positive indicator of deepening strategic relationships and future growth potential, contrasting with the headline revenue slowdown. |
| Revenue Growth (Latest Quarter, YoY) | 3% (Q2 2026) | This metric indicates a significant deceleration in growth compared to 11.8% in the prior quarter and 14.3% two quarters prior, reflecting macroeconomic pressures and weaker advertiser demand. |
| Channel Mix (Video, incl. CTV) | low 50s percent share (Q2 2026) | This indicates that CTV and video are the dominant and fastest-growing parts of the business, central to the company's growth strategy. |
Core Client Strength vs. Headline Growth Collapse
BULL VIEW
The 6x faster growth from 217 strategic JBP clients is a leading indicator of a durable franchise, suggesting the current 3% overall growth rate is a temporary, macro-driven trough.
CORE TENSION
Can strong JBP growth (6x overall rate) signal a bottom, or does the 3% headline growth and weak guidance prove the model is breaking under pressure?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears. The severe Q3 guidance cut for revenue and profits indicates management sees worsening, not improving, conditions in the immediate future.
BEAR VIEW
The JBP strength is a shrinking pocket of resilience. The collapse in overall growth and the severe -13.3% cut to Q3 guidance show the business is losing to cheaper rivals in a tough market.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/20/2026 | Verizon Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Verizon Communications (VZ) scheduled to report earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Walled Garden Competitive Pressure Watch: Growth rates of Google and Amazon advertising segments versus TTD's Q3 results and Q4 guidance. |
11/4/2026 | Continued CPG and Auto Weakness Watch: Management commentary on CPG and auto spend trends and any continued shift to lower-value buying models. |
11/4/2026 | Go-To-Market Execution Stumbles Watch: Updates on sales productivity, JBP growth rates, and traction from new leadership's strategic initiatives. |
11/9/2026 | Viant Technology Peer Earnings Watch: Peer Viant Technology (DSP) scheduled to report earnings. |
later this month | a recently discussed product Platform Upgrade Launch Watch: Launch of significant platform usability upgrade, codenamed a recently discussed product. |
No set date | Agency Relationship Deterioration Watch: News or company statements regarding relationships with major advertising holding companies, especially Publicis, WPP, Omnicom, IPG. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-06 | Q2 Earnings Miss and Guidance Cut Details: The company reported Q2 revenue growth of 3%, missing estimates. It also issued significantly lower guidance for Q3 revenue (-13.3% change) and Adjusted EBITDA (-38.5% change). | -27.2% $18.96 -> $13.80 |
2026-07-15 | Further Leadership Overhaul Details: The company appointed Kristi Argyilan as Chief Commercial Officer, Ron Lamprecht as Chief Business Development Officer, and Penry Price to its board, continuing a significant leadership transition. | +1.0% $18.94 -> $19.12 |
2026-06-11 | Executive and Board Appointments Details: The company announced the appointments of Sarah Gavin as Chief Marketing Officer and David Haddad to its board of directors. | -0.1% $19.29 -> $19.28 |
2026-05-07 | Q1 2026 Earnings and Guidance Details: The company reported Q1 revenue growth of 11.8% year-over-year. Guidance for Q2 was viewed as a disappointment by the market. | -3.9% $24.01 -> $23.08 |
2026-03-18 | Publicis Audit Dispute Reported Details: Press reports indicated that Publicis Groupe advised clients against using TTD's platform following an audit dispute, causing the stock to drop on the day. | -6.2% $25.07 -> $23.51 |
2026-02-25 | Q4 2025 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q4 revenue growth of 14% year-over-year, or 18% excluding political ad spend from the prior year. Full-year 2025 revenue was $2.9 billion. | -4.0% $24.94 -> $23.95 |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: TTD trades at roughly 79% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (6.1x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
GOOGL - Alphabet
Scaled, Diversified ExposureAlphabet offers exposure to the entire advertising market through its dominant search and YouTube properties, with significantly larger scale and financial resources. Its TTM revenue growth demonstrates more resilient demand.
AMZN - Amazon.com
High-Growth Retail MediaAmazon provides direct exposure to the fast-growing retail media segment, leveraging its vast first-party shopper data. The strong growth of its advertising business demonstrates momentum and insulation from open-internet pressures.
A premium, independent ad-tech platform whose value-based proposition is being tested by a cyclical downturn where major advertisers are prioritizing cost-cutting over performance.
Trade Desk offers a superior, objective platform for large advertisers to optimize ad spend on the open internet, differentiating itself from conflicted 'walled gardens' like Google and Amazon. However, the company is currently facing significant headwinds as key client verticals like CPG and Automotive are pulling back on ad spend due to macro pressures. This has led to a sharp growth deceleration and has forced a repricing of the stock based on near-term execution challenges rather than its long-term secular growth story.
A re-acceleration in revenue growth, particularly from CPG and auto clients; evidence of market share gains against lower-cost alternatives; and successful scaling of new products like Audience Unlimited that simplify and demonstrate value.
Continued growth deceleration; loss of a major advertising holding company client; evidence that clients are permanently shifting to 'good enough' lower-cost platforms, eroding TTD's 'objectivity' moat.
Announcements of individual new client wins or minor product updates that don't address the core issues of macro demand and the value-versus-cost debate.
Repricing Catalyst
The Q2 2026 earnings report on August 6, 2026, which revealed revenue growth of only 3% and included sharply lowered guidance for Q3, causing a -27% two-day stock reaction.
Trade Desk — Investor Video Playlist
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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