Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (2/10/2026): $27.12 | Market Cap: $13.2 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (2/10/2026): $27.12Market Cap: $13.2 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Executive Leadership Instability with CFO Termination
The Trade Desk experienced significant investor concern following the unexpected termination of its Chief Financial Officer, Alexander Kayyal, on January 26, 2026, after only five months in the role. This event, which marked the second CFO departure in less than six months, triggered a sharp decline of over 12% in the company's stock during the week of the announcement and raised questions about leadership stability amidst industry disruption. Tahnil Davis was appointed as the Interim Chief Financial Officer.
2. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions
In late January 2026, several prominent analyst firms downgraded The Trade Desk's stock and reduced their price targets, contributing to a weakened market sentiment and increased selling pressure. For example, Citizens Jmp downgraded the stock from "outperform" to "market perform," Rosenblatt Securities lowered its price target from $64.00 to $53.00, and Truist Securities adjusted its target from $85.00 to $60.00.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -46.2% change in TTD stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.28 | 27.04 | -46.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,679 | 2,791 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 15.7% | 0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 59.1 | 30.1 | -49.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 491 | 488 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -46.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -46.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.7% | 41.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | 1.8% | 49.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -68.9% change in TTD stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.96 | 27.04 | -68.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,570 | 2,791 | 8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.0% | 15.7% | -2.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 104.4 | 30.1 | -71.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 495 | 488 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -68.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -68.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.1% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 9.2% | 23.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -77.2% change in TTD stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -84.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.68 | 27.04 | -77.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,310 | 2,791 | 20.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 189.3 | 30.1 | -84.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 492 | 488 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -77.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -77.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 39.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | 15.2% | 39.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -46.7% change in TTD stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.70 | 27.04 | -46.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,483 | 2,791 | 88.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 16.7 | 4.7 | -71.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 488 | 488 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -46.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -46.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 42.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | 118.5% | 44.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TTD Return | 14% | -51% | 61% | 63% | -68% | -29% | -66% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -46% | 81% | 67% | 11% | -1% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TTD Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 33% | 75% | 68% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TTD Max Drawdown | -39% | -56% | -6% | -11% | -69% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -52% | -5% | -4% | -25% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 695 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 120 days |
Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -64.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -64.3% loss requires a 179.9% gain to breakeven.
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About Trade Desk (TTD)
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Here are a few brief analogies for The Trade Desk (TTD):
Bloomberg Terminal for digital advertising: Just as Bloomberg provides sophisticated data, analytics, and tools for financial professionals to trade, The Trade Desk provides a powerful, data-driven platform for advertisers to programmatically buy digital ad inventory.
Shopify for advertisers: Similar to how Shopify provides a platform and tools for businesses to build and manage online stores, The Trade Desk offers a platform and tools for advertisers to efficiently plan, execute, and optimize their digital ad campaigns across the open internet.
Expedia for ad space: Think of it like Expedia, but instead of finding and booking travel, The Trade Desk is a platform where advertisers can find, bid on, and purchase various types of digital advertising inventory (video, display, audio, CTV) across a vast network of publishers.
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- Demand-Side Platform (DSP): A comprehensive, cloud-based platform enabling advertisers and agencies to plan, execute, and optimize data-driven programmatic advertising campaigns across various digital channels.
- Omnichannel Ad Buying Services: These services facilitate the automated purchase of ad inventory across diverse digital formats, including connected TV, desktop, mobile, and audio, to maximize reach and engagement.
- Audience Targeting and Data Integration Services: These services provide tools and integrations for advertisers to leverage first-party and third-party data for precise audience segmentation, activation, and personalized ad delivery.
- Campaign Optimization and Measurement Services: These services offer real-time bidding capabilities, advanced analytics, and reporting tools to continuously improve campaign performance and provide transparent insights into advertising effectiveness.
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The Trade Desk (TTD) Major Customers
The Trade Desk (TTD) sells primarily to **other companies**. Its major customers are advertising agencies and large brands (advertisers) that utilize its demand-side platform (DSP) to purchase and manage programmatic digital advertising campaigns across various digital media channels. The company's revenue is generated from fees based on a percentage of the media spend on its platform by these customers. While The Trade Desk does not typically disclose the specific names of individual agencies or brands using its platform due to the competitive and confidential nature of the advertising business, a significant portion of its agency-side business comes from agencies owned by the major global advertising holding companies. These holding companies own numerous individual agencies, many of which are active users of DSPs like The Trade Desk to execute campaigns for their diverse client portfolios. Key global advertising agency holding companies whose subsidiaries are major customers include:- WPP plc (NYSE: WPP)
- Omnicom Group Inc. (NYSE: OMC)
- Publicis Groupe S.A. (OTC: PUBGY)
- The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG)
- Dentsu Group Inc. (OTC: DNTUF)
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- Amazon (AMZN)
- Alphabet (GOOGL)
- Magnite (MGNI)
- PubMatic (PUBM)
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Jeff Green, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder
Jeff Green is the Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman of the Board of The Trade Desk. He co-founded The Trade Desk in 2009. Prior to The Trade Desk, Green founded AdECN, the world's first online advertising exchange, which was acquired by Microsoft in 2007. He then served as the Chief Operating Officer of AdECN Exchange at Microsoft.
Alex Kayyal, Chief Financial Officer
Alex Kayyal became Chief Financial Officer of The Trade Desk effective August 21, 2025. He is responsible for the company's long-term financial and investment strategy and also serves on The Trade Desk's Board of Directors. Kayyal brings extensive experience as an investor and operator, having previously been a Partner at Lightspeed Venture Partners, where he led the firm's application software practice. He also spent nearly a decade at Salesforce in various executive roles, including Senior Vice President and Managing Partner of Salesforce Ventures. Earlier in his career, he helped establish Hermes Growth Partners, where he led the firm's investment in The Trade Desk. Kayyal began his career at Merrill Lynch in the Office of the CFO and later in investment banking.
Vivek Kundra, Chief Operating Officer
Vivek Kundra joined The Trade Desk as Chief Operating Officer, effective March 31, 2025, overseeing global operations and driving operational excellence. He previously served as the first Chief Information Officer of the United States government from 2009 to 2011 under President Barack Obama, managing $80 billion in technology investments and leading the government's transition to the cloud. Kundra was also Executive Vice President, Industries, at Salesforce from 2012 to 2017, where he contributed to quadrupling the company's revenue. Most recently, he held COO positions at software companies such as Sprinklr and project44.
Anders Mortensen, Chief Revenue Officer
Anders Mortensen was appointed Chief Revenue Officer for The Trade Desk, effective November 4, 2025. He is responsible for driving global revenue generation. Mortensen brings a 25-year track record in global executive leadership and digital advertising. Most recently, he spent over a decade at Google, serving as Managing Director (and VP), where he led one of the largest and fastest-growing advertising businesses, including the U.S. Agency and Channel Partner businesses and launching the Google Marketing Platform to the Americas Mid-Market. Prior to Google, Mortensen was General Manager at Fujitsu.
Samantha Jacobson, Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President
Samantha Jacobson serves as Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, managing strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives. She joined The Trade Desk's Board of Directors in 2024. Before joining The Trade Desk, Jacobson spent six years at Oracle, managing the global business development and strategy team. Prior to Oracle, she was Director of Strategic Partnerships at Datalogix, where she developed alliances with major technology companies like Twitter, Pinterest, Microsoft, Google, and Apple. Her earlier career included various business development, partner management, and strategy roles at companies such as eBay and American Express.
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The Trade Desk (TTD) faces several key risks to its business in the evolving digital advertising landscape:- Competition from "Walled Gardens" and Access to Premium Inventory: The Trade Desk operates as a demand-side platform (DSP) on the open internet, but it faces significant competitive threats from dominant, closed ecosystems, often referred to as "walled gardens," such as Google, Amazon, and Meta (formerly Facebook). These tech giants control vast amounts of proprietary ad inventory and first-party data, giving them a structural advantage in monetizing their owned ecosystems. Amazon's expanding Demand-Side Platform and its strategy to secure premium ad inventory from partners like Netflix are seen as direct challenges, potentially limiting The Trade Desk's access to quality supply on the open internet. As more content consumption shifts to streaming platforms and AI-powered interfaces, control over advertising inventory may further consolidate within these large ecosystems, posing a strategic risk for independent platforms like The Trade Desk.
- Regulatory Changes and Data Privacy Concerns (including the deprecation of third-party cookies): The digital advertising industry is subject to evolving global privacy and data protection laws, which can increase operational costs and restrict the company's ability to operate or expand. A significant risk stems from the deprecation of third-party cookies by Google, which has led The Trade Desk to promote Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) as an industry standard for targeted advertising while preserving user privacy. However, the widespread adoption of UID2 is not guaranteed, as Google has its own Privacy Sandbox framework, and other walled gardens like Apple are unlikely to adopt UID2. Slower-than-expected UID2 adoption or the imposition of stricter privacy rules by regulators could weaken The Trade Desk's targeting capabilities and, consequently, its value proposition to advertisers. Additionally, The Trade Desk has faced class-action lawsuits alleging securities fraud related to its AI tool Kokai and accusations of violating consumer privacy laws, which could erode investor confidence and client trust.
- High Valuation and Execution Risks: The Trade Desk's stock currently trades at a premium valuation, with high Price-to-Earnings and Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA ratios. This elevated valuation implies high growth expectations, leaving little margin for error; if growth decelerates, the current valuation could be difficult to justify. The company has also experienced execution challenges, such as a slower-than-anticipated rollout of its flagship AI platform, Kokai, which contributed to revenue misses and impacted investor confidence. Furthermore, macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and global instability, can directly affect overall advertising spending, introducing volatility and potentially impacting The Trade Desk's financial performance.
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There are two clear emerging threats for The Trade Desk:
-
Accelerated shift towards first-party data and the diminishing effectiveness of third-party identifiers in the open internet: The ongoing deprecation of third-party cookies by web browsers (e.g., Google Chrome's impending changes), Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework, and stricter global data privacy regulations (e.g., GDPR, CCPA) are fundamentally altering how advertisers can target audiences and measure campaigns on the open internet. While The Trade Desk has been proactive in developing alternative identifiers like UID2.0, these changes make data less accessible and more complex to utilize for targeting and measurement outside of walled gardens. This erosion of data signals could diminish the precision and effectiveness of programmatic advertising in the open ecosystem, potentially reducing advertiser ROI and pushing ad spend towards platforms with robust first-party data.
-
Increasing market consolidation and advertiser spend concentration within "walled gardens": As the open internet grapples with data privacy challenges and complexity, advertisers may increasingly consolidate their ad spend within large, integrated platforms like Google, Meta, Amazon, and TikTok. These "walled gardens" offer advertisers a simplified, often more compliant, environment with vast proprietary first-party data for targeting and measurement. If advertisers perceive greater efficiency, simpler execution, or superior performance within these closed ecosystems, it could accelerate a shift of advertising budgets away from independent demand-side platforms (DSPs) like The Trade Desk, shrinking TTD's addressable market and competitive space.
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The Trade Desk (TTD) operates primarily in the programmatic advertising market through its self-service, cloud-based demand-side platform (DSP). This platform enables advertisers to plan, manage, optimize, and measure digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats, including display, video, audio, native, and social, and across a multitude of devices such as computers, mobile devices, and Connected TV (CTV). A significant and rapidly expanding area for The Trade Desk is Connected TV (CTV) advertising. The addressable markets for The Trade Desk's main products and services are substantial:- Global Advertising Market (Total Addressable Market): The Trade Desk estimates its total addressable market (TAM) to be a staggering $1 trillion globally.
- Global Programmatic Advertising Market:
- The global programmatic advertising market was valued at USD 678.37 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2,753.03 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.8% from 2024 to 2030.
- Another estimate values the global programmatic advertising market at USD 64.21 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 1207.07 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 44.3% during the forecast period of 2025 to 2032.
- In 2024, programmatic ad spend is expected to reach $157 billion.
- Global Connected TV (CTV) Advertising Market:
- Global CTV ad spend is projected to reach $33.35 billion in 2025 and grow to $46.89 billion by 2028.
- Another report indicates that worldwide ad revenue for CTV is predicted to have an impressive compound annual growth rate of 10.4% by 2028, with global CTV ad spend reaching $22.8 billion in 2022.
- The global advertising spend on Connected TV (CTV) was projected to reach $25.9 billion in 2023, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4% over the next five years.
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The Trade Desk (TTD) is poised for significant future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key factors:
- Connected TV (CTV) Dominance and Growth: Connected TV continues to be The Trade Desk's largest and fastest-growing channel, with video advertising (which includes CTV) representing a high-40s to 50% share of its total business and outpacing overall business growth. The company is strategically capitalizing on the ongoing shift of ad dollars from linear television to programmatic CTV, a trend expected to continue as consumers increasingly favor streaming platforms. Innovations such as the Ventura Operating System for CTV and the emphasis on biddable CTV further strengthen its position in this expanding market.
- Advanced Product Innovations and AI Integration: The Trade Desk's commitment to product innovation, particularly through its AI-powered Kokai platform, is a significant growth driver. Kokai is designed to enhance advertising performance, delivering improved results such as a 94% better click-through rate compared to previous platforms, and has seen rapid client adoption. Other product enhancements like Deal Desk and Audience Unlimited are also expected to contribute to future revenue expansion.
- Expansion and Capture of Open Internet Market Share: The Trade Desk is strategically positioned to gain market share by championing the "open internet" as consumers and advertisers increasingly move away from "walled gardens" like Google and Meta. The company aims to provide a transparent and efficient marketplace for digital advertising, aligning with advertisers' desire for greater precision and measurable impact. The growth of the open internet, particularly through streaming TV and digital audio, presents a substantial opportunity for The Trade Desk.
- International Market Expansion: While North America currently accounts for the majority of The Trade Desk's revenue, international expansion is a key strategic focus. The company has observed its growth outside the U.S. outpacing domestic growth in certain periods, indicating a promising avenue for future revenue generation as it broadens its global footprint.
- Strategic Partnerships and Supply Path Efficiency through Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) and OpenPath: The Trade Desk continues to drive revenue growth through strategic partnerships and initiatives aimed at improving the advertising supply chain. Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) is an industry-wide approach to identity that prioritizes user control and privacy while enabling relevant advertising, fostering a healthier ecosystem. Additionally, efforts like OpenPath aim to enhance the quality and efficiency of the supply chain for advertisers, contributing to increased spend on the platform.
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The Trade Desk (TTD) has engaged in various capital allocation activities over the last three to five years.Share Repurchases
- The Trade Desk's board authorized a new $500 million stock buyback program on November 6, 2025.
- An additional $500 million in share repurchases was authorized in January 2025, increasing the total authorized future repurchases to $1 billion.
- The company repurchased $647 million of Class A common stock in 2023.
Share Issuance
- The Trade Desk's shares outstanding increased by 0.35% in 2024 from 2023, 0.05% in 2023 from 2022, and 0.28% in 2022 from 2021.
- Stock-based compensation expense was $128 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, and $198 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023.
Outbound Investments
- The Trade Desk launched TD7, a venture capital arm, on June 29, 2021, to invest in open internet start-ups.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $107.062 million in 2024, $55.02 million in 2023, and $91.9 million in 2022.
- The company anticipates capital expenditures of approximately $160.9 million in 2025, $164.6 million in 2026, and $193.2 million in 2027.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes investments in its platform, team, platform infrastructure, and AI/machine learning tools to support long-term growth.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 127.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 954.1 |
| Rev LTM | 169,228 |
| Op Inc LTM | 55,826 |
| FCF LTM | 14,172 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 20,158 |
| CFO LTM | 77,128 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 64,932 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 954.1 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 23.5 |
| P/E | 29.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 122.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 39.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.04 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/21/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -77.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $35.97 | $54.58 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -24.8% | -50.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 41.7% | 75.9% |
| Downside Capture | 276.21 | 158.34 |
| Upside Capture | -15.05 | -14.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.1% | 39.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.85 | 0.98 | 1.24 | 0.76 | 1.51 | 1.66 |
| Up Beta | 5.25 | 3.25 | 1.98 | 0.99 | 1.86 | 1.67 |
| Down Beta | 0.90 | 0.48 | 1.20 | 1.61 | 2.02 | 2.01 |
| Up Capture | -90% | -71% | -56% | -91% | -10% | 153% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 4 | 16 | 25 | 58 | 125 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 447% | 230% | 225% | 161% | 122% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 16 | 25 | 36 | 66 | 123 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -76.5% | 75.8% | -1.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 14.6% | 18.7% | 0.59 | 39.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 19.4% | 0.62 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 78.8% | 24.9% | 2.30 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 16.6% | 0.40 | 14.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 16.5% | 0.11 | 27.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.0% | 44.8% | -0.57 | 26.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -20.1% | 68.0% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 12.1% | 20.8% | 0.49 | 54.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.0% | 0.67 | 51.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.3% | 16.9% | 1.07 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.49 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 34.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.7% | 58.0% | 0.47 | 31.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | 23.8% | 68.6% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.6% | 22.5% | 0.52 | 54.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 47.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.8% | 15.5% | 0.85 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 14.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.0% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 31.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 69.0% | 66.8% | 1.08 | 17.9% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -5.0% | 1.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.5% |
| 2/15/2024 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 16.2% | 14.1% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -9.0% | -13.8% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cunningham, Andrea Lee | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 48.20 | 1,403 | 67,625 | 242,687 | Form | |
| 2 | Grant, Jay R | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 91.18 | 51,290 | 4,676,679 | 19,899,912 | Form |
| 3 | Schenkein, Laura | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192025 | 76.66 | 4,809 | 368,662 | 57,181,440 | Form |
| 4 | Wells, David B | Direct | Sell | 5152025 | 79.88 | 28,638 | 2,287,603 | 5,350,762 | Form | |
| 5 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | See Footnote | Sell | 5142025 | 80.03 | 26,684 | 2,135,521 | 1,361,951 | Form |
TTD Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Growth Narrative Breakdown vs. Secular Endurance
BULL VIEW
Secular tailwinds from CTV and retail media, plus a superior independent platform (UID2, Kokai), will drive re-acceleration and continued market share gains from walled gardens.
CORE TENSION
Bears see clear revenue deceleration as a broken hyper-growth story. Bulls argue this is a cyclical dip in a durable, long-term shift to programmatic advertising.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Year-over-year revenue growth decelerated sequentially through 2025, from 25.5% in Q1 to 17.7% in Q3, indicating the growth slowdown is a persistent trend.
BEAR VIEW
Slowing growth is structural, driven by intensifying competition from Amazon's DSP and broad advertiser budget cuts, justifying significant multiple compression for the stock.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late February 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Guidance Watch: Full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance vs. consensus estimates. |
Late April 2026 (Q1 results) | Amazon's Advertising Segment Results Watch: Amazon's advertising revenue growth rate. |
April - May 2026 | Major Advertiser Earnings (e.g., P&G, Unilever) Watch: Commentary on 2026 marketing and advertising budget plans. |
Ongoing (Q1-Q2 2026) | EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) Enforcement Action Watch: Any ruling that structurally alters programmatic ad auctions or data sharing. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Jan 26, 2026 | Abrupt CFO Departure Details: Company announced the termination of CFO Alex Kayyal after only five months. The stock fell notably on concerns about management instability and internal controls. | -4.8% |
Nov 6, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, the stock crashed. The market focused on decelerating YoY growth (18%) and concerns about the 2026 outlook. | -6.3% |
Oct 28, 2025 | New Chief Revenue Officer Appointed Details: The Trade Desk announced Anders Mortensen as the new Chief Revenue Officer. The stock fell notably amid broader market weakness and executive team changes. | -3.6% |
Oct 7, 2025 | Competitor Strategic Partnership Details: Microsoft named Amazon DSP its preferred partner for customers transitioning from the sunsetting Microsoft Invest platform, a strategic win for a key TTD competitor. Stock reaction was flat. | +0.7% |
Oct 1, 2025 | DIRECTV Partnership Details: TTD and DIRECTV announced plans to develop a custom TV operating system, expanding TTD's footprint in the connected TV ecosystem. The stock reaction was flat. | +0.6% |
Aug 7, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported decelerating growth and cited macro headwinds causing large brands to pull back ad spend. The stock plummeted on the weak outlook. | -38.6% |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock trades with explosive volatility (4.1x S&P 500). The bearish sentiment, expensive valuation, and erratic guidance override the strong moat, forcing a conservative sizing until visibility on growth re-acceleration improves.
Diversification Alternatives
META
SECTOROwns a 'walled garden' with massive first-party data, insulating it from open internet cookie deprecation. Trades at a more reasonable valuation multiple.
IDCC
OTHEROffers a non-correlated tech investment focused on patent licensing, providing portfolio diversification away from cyclical advertising spend. Typically offers a strong dividend.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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