Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)
Market Price (4/19/2026): $1.93 | Market Cap: $123.3 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)
Market Price (4/19/2026): $1.93Market Cap: $123.3 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -70% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Medical Device Innovation. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Orthopedic Surgical Devices. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -123%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -167% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -54 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -25% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.0% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% Key risksTMCI key risks include [1] intense competitive pressure on its flagship Lapiplasty system, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -70% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Medical Device Innovation. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Orthopedic Surgical Devices. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -123%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -167% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -54 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -25% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.0% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% |
| Key risksTMCI key risks include [1] intense competitive pressure on its flagship Lapiplasty system, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Treace Medical Concepts reported disappointing Q4 2025 financial results, with an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.15, missing analysts' expectations of -$0.14. The company also reported a significant increase in net loss to $9.4 million, or $0.15 per share, in Q4 2025, compared to a net loss of $0.5 million, or $0.01 per share, in Q4 2024. Furthermore, the full-year 2026 revenue guidance initially projected a decline of 6% to 0% compared to full-year 2025 revenue, with Q1 2026 revenue forecast to decrease approximately 27% from Q4 2025.
2. The company experienced headwinds from an unfavorable product and price mix, coupled with market softness in elective foot and ankle procedures. A shift in revenue mix towards lower-priced products negatively impacted overall revenue. Additionally, customer feedback indicated an average decline of approximately 7% year-over-year in bunion procedure volumes, further pressuring the company's growth prospects for 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.8% change in TMCI stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.45 | 1.94 | -20.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 219 | 213 | -2.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 0.6 | -18.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 64 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMCI | -20.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 32.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -3.9% | 32.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -71.1% change in TMCI stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.71 | 1.94 | -71.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 214 | 213 | -0.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 0.6 | -70.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63 | 64 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -71.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMCI | -71.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 22.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 7.4% | 22.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -76.9% change in TMCI stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -76.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.39 | 1.94 | -76.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 209 | 213 | 1.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.5 | 0.6 | -76.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 62 | 64 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -76.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMCI | -76.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.3% | 27.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -92.3% change in TMCI stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -94.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.19 | 1.94 | -92.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 142 | 213 | 50.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.9 | 0.6 | -94.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 64 | -13.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -92.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMCI | -92.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 24.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 20.3% | 23.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMCI Return | -27% | 23% | -45% | -42% | -67% | -24% | -93% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 0% | -1% | -13% | -11% | -0% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 3% | 87% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMCI Win Rate | 44% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 47% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMCI Max Drawdown | -39% | -31% | -74% | -67% | -68% | -51% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -23% | -18% | -23% | -23% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SYK, JNJ, ZBH, ENOV, IART.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMCI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 498.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to SYK, JNJ, ZBH, ENOV, IART
In The Past
Treace Medical Concepts's stock fell -83.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -83.3% loss requires a 498.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI):
Imagine Treace Medical Concepts as a highly specialized version of **Stryker** or **Zimmer Biomet**, but entirely focused on innovative devices and procedures for foot and ankle surgery, particularly their unique bunion correction system.
Think of them like **Intuitive Surgical**, but instead of general surgical robotics, they develop and market specialized systems for precise foot and ankle procedures, such as their Lapiplasty bunion correction method.
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- Lapiplasty procedure system: A medical device system that enables foot and ankle surgeons to treat bunions in all three dimensions.
- Lapiplasty Mini-Incision precision system: A specialized system for the Lapiplasty procedure designed to facilitate smaller surgical incisions.
- Products for Ancillary Foot and Ankle Surgeries: A portfolio of medical devices addressing various supplementary surgical procedures, including osteotomies, fusions, and autograft bone harvesting.
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Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) sells its medical devices to healthcare providers and institutions where foot and ankle surgeons perform procedures, rather than directly to individual patients. While the company does not publicly disclose the names of specific major customer companies (e.g., individual hospital chains or surgical center networks), its products are purchased and utilized by facilities that host surgical procedures. Based on the nature of its business, the major categories of customers for Treace Medical Concepts are:- Hospitals: These include general hospitals, specialized orthopedic hospitals, and large hospital systems where foot and ankle surgeons perform a variety of surgical procedures using TMCI's devices.
- Ambulatory Surgical Centers (ASCs): These are outpatient facilities that specialize in same-day surgical procedures. Many orthopedic and podiatric surgeries, including those requiring TMCI's products, are performed in ASCs due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness.
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John T. Treace, CEO, Founder, and Chairman of the Board
John T. Treace has over 25 years of experience in medical device marketing, sales, and general management. He founded Treace Medical Concepts in January 2014 and has served as CEO and a board member since the company's inception. Mr. Treace was the Senior Vice President of US Sales and Global Marketing for Wright Medical Group, Inc., a medical device company that was acquired by Stryker Corporation in November 2020. He also held positions at Xomed Surgical Products, Inc., and TreBay Medical Corp. Mr. Treace served on the board of directors of ENTrigue Surgical, which was acquired by Arthrocare Corporation in July 2013. He began serving as Chairman of the Board in May 2025.
Mark L. Hair, Chief Financial Officer
Mark L. Hair has more than 25 years of financial experience, including leadership roles at medical device companies. He has served as Chief Financial Officer of Treace Medical Concepts since September 2020. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Hair was Chief Financial Officer at Restoration Robotics, Inc.; Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer at Zeltiq Aesthetics, Inc., including through its acquisition by Allergan PLC in April 2017; and Vice President and Corporate Controller at Thoratec Corporation, including through its acquisition by St. Jude Medical in October 2015. Mr. Hair was also a partner at StoneTurn Group, LLP, a financial consulting boutique, and at Deloitte, LLP.
Guy Guglielmino, Chief Commercial Officer
Guy Guglielmino brings 20 years of medical technology industry expertise, including diverse senior leadership roles in the healthcare and medical device sectors. Mr. Guglielmino has served as Treace's Chief Commercial Officer since December 2024. Most recently, he was President, Recovery Sciences at Enovis. Prior to that, he held senior Marketing roles at Enovis, Wright Medical, and Bausch + Lomb.
Daniel Owens, Chief Human Resources Officer
Daniel E. Owens is a globally-experienced human resources business leader with an extensive background spanning several industries. He has served as Treace's Chief Human Resources Officer since February 2021. Before joining Treace, Mr. Owens was VP-Human Resources at Jackson Hewitt Tax Service. He has also held human resources leadership roles at companies including General Electric, NBC Universal, Hartford Life, Nomura Securities, and Qurate Retail Group, with experience in the United States and Tokyo, Japan.
Scot Elder, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer, Corporate Secretary
Scot Elder brings nearly 25 years of diverse global experience in the fields of Legal and Compliance to Treace Medical Concepts. He has served as Chief Legal & Compliance Officer, Corporate Secretary since October 2022, and previously as SVP, Chief Compliance Officer since joining Treace in October 2021. Prior to Treace, Mr. Elder was the Vice President and Chief Ethics and Compliance Officer of Medtronic, where he spent over 12 years in various roles, including VP, General Counsel for Medtronic's Restorative Therapies group and VP, Chief Counsel, Compliance & Privacy Officer for Medtronic's Surgical Technologies business. Before Medtronic, Mr. Elder practiced commercial litigation and business transactions at Holland & Knight, LLP, and was Chief Litigation Officer for the St Joe Company.
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The key risks to Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) are primarily centered around intense market competition, particularly from minimally invasive surgery (MIS) techniques and rival products, an over-reliance on its flagship Lapiplasty system, and ongoing profitability challenges.
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Treace Medical Concepts faces significant competitive pressures, particularly from the increasing adoption of minimally invasive surgical (MIS) osteotomy solutions and the emergence of "knockoff" products that imitate its Lapiplasty system. This competition has directly impacted the company's revenue forecasts, led to a substantial drop in its stock price, and is eroding its market share. The company has engaged in legal battles, filing patent infringement lawsuits against major orthopedic players like Stryker, Zimmer Biomet, and Paragon 28, highlighting the severity of this competitive landscape.
- Over-reliance on Lapiplasty System and Limited Diversification: A significant portion of Treace Medical Concepts' revenue has historically been generated by its Lapiplasty 3D Bunion Correction System. This over-reliance on a single, premium product, and indeed the broader bunion and midfoot deformity market, makes the company vulnerable to shifts in surgeon and patient preferences, competitive pricing, and changes in reimbursement. While Treace is working to evolve into a comprehensive bunion solutions provider and is launching its own MIS systems (e.g., Nanoplasty and Percuplasty), its future growth remains largely tied to the health and dynamics of the elective bunion surgery market.
- Profitability Challenges and Sustained Operating Losses: Despite its innovative technology and strong patent portfolio, Treace Medical Concepts has struggled with profitability, reporting sustained operating losses. The company recorded a trailing twelve-month net loss of $59.0 million and has experienced an increase in losses over five years. Although efforts are being made to improve operational efficiencies and achieve breakeven adjusted EBITDA, the history of substantial operating losses and continued dilution present a significant financial risk.
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Treace Medical Concepts (symbol: TMCI) operates in the orthopedic medical device market, primarily focusing on the Lapiplasty procedure for bunion correction and other foot and ankle surgical solutions.
- For its Lapiplasty procedure and related bunion correction solutions, Treace Medical Concepts targets an addressable market of over $5 billion in the U.S.. This U.S. market opportunity is based on an estimated 1.1 million surgical candidates for bunions annually.
- The broader U.S. foot and ankle devices market was valued at approximately $2.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $3.5 billion by 2032.
- Globally, the foot and ankle devices market was estimated at $5.06 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately $9.90 billion by 2034.
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Treace Medical Concepts (NASDAQ: TMCI) is strategically focused on several key initiatives to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily through expanding its product offerings, increasing market penetration, and enhancing patient and surgeon engagement.
The expected drivers of future revenue growth include:
- Expansion of Bunion Correction Product Portfolio and New Product Launches: Treace Medical Concepts is transitioning from a single-technology company to a comprehensive provider of bunion solutions. This involves the introduction of new systems such as Nanoplasty™ 3D Minimally Invasive Bunion Correction System, Percuplasty™ Percutaneous 3D Bunion Correction System, and SpeedMTP™ MTP Fusion System. These new offerings, along with future innovations like the Lapiplasty® Lightning™ system, aim to address virtually all surgeon preferences across various bunion deformity categories and are expected to drive market share and revenue growth, particularly in the latter half of 2026.
- Increased Surgeon Adoption and Market Penetration: The company continues to prioritize expanding its network of active surgeons and increasing the utilization of its products among existing accounts. By the end of 2024, Treace Medical Concepts reported 3,135 active surgeons, a 10% increase year-over-year, representing approximately 31% penetration within the estimated 10,000 U.S. surgeons performing bunion surgeries annually. This growth is supported by a dedicated direct sales force and extensive product training programs.
- Strategic Expansion into Midfoot Deformity Market: Beyond its core bunion correction business, Treace Medical Concepts is expanding its presence in the broader foot and ankle market to address midfoot deformities. This includes the introduction of products like the Adductoplasty® Midfoot Correction System and SpeedPlate® Rapid Compression Implants, diversifying revenue streams beyond the foundational Lapiplasty® system.
- Enhanced Patient Awareness and Direct-to-Consumer Marketing: Treace Medical Concepts is investing in patient awareness and education campaigns, such as the "Future You" initiative and the establishment of National Bunion Day. These efforts aim to boost public awareness of bunion deformities and available solutions, fostering broader brand recognition and increasing patient demand for their procedures, thereby complementing surgeon-focused sales strategies.
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Share Issuance
- Treace Medical Concepts completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2021.
- Approximately 63.86 million shares of the company's stock were outstanding as of March 13, 2026.
Inbound Investments
- Institutional investors collectively owned approximately 84.08% of the company's stock.
- Significant institutional shareholders include Armistice Capital LLC (9.99%), Gagnon Securities LLC (4.88%), Gagnon Advisors LLC (2.41%), and Millennium Management LLC (2.36%).
- As of December 31, 2025, Treace Medical Concepts secured a new credit facility that provides an additional $115 million of liquidity.
Outbound Investments
- Treace Medical Concepts completed a Corporate Asset Purchase of RedPoint Medical 3D (Patient Specific Instrumentation Technology) on June 12, 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Cash used by the company in 2025, which includes capital expenditures, totaled $27.3 million, representing a 46% reduction from $50.5 million in 2024.
- The company expects lower capital expenditures for instrumentation trays in 2026 compared to 2025.
- Treace Medical Concepts anticipates reducing its overall cash usage by approximately 50% in 2026 compared to 2025, with lower capital expenditures contributing to this reduction.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.1 |
| Rev LTM | 5,240 |
| Op Inc LTM | 687 |
| FCF LTM | 720 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 632 |
| CFO LTM | 957 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 874 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.1 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.9 |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.0 |
| Total Yield | -22.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -41.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -41.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -112.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.94 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/23/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -74.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.66 | $4.16 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 17.1% | -53.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 102.8% | 75.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.73 | 1.04 |
| Upside Capture | -7.36 | 3.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 23.9% | 24.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.57 | 2.08 | 2.05 | 1.44 | 0.99 | 1.31 |
| Up Beta | 9.28 | 7.80 | 6.62 | 3.99 | 0.91 | 1.42 |
| Down Beta | -1.41 | -0.27 | 0.08 | 0.98 | 0.75 | 1.02 |
| Up Capture | -27% | 13% | 57% | -91% | 1% | 22% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 16 | 24 | 45 | 101 | 331 |
| Down Capture | 300% | 278% | 266% | 212% | 155% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 26 | 39 | 80 | 144 | 405 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMCI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMCI | -70.6% | 75.1% | -1.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.6% | 16.0% | 0.39 | 26.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.1% | 12.9% | 1.32 | 28.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.9% | 27.5% | 1.49 | -0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.2% | 16.2% | 1.40 | -11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.5% | 13.7% | 0.93 | 22.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -7.8% | 42.6% | -0.08 | 14.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMCI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMCI | -40.2% | 75.0% | -0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.4% | 14.6% | 0.25 | 26.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.8% | 17.1% | 0.49 | 29.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.8% | 1.04 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 18.8% | 0.14 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.2% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 17.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMCI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMCI | -22.7% | 75.0% | -0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.8% | 16.5% | 0.48 | 26.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 29.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 17.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/27/2026 | -11.4% | -33.8% | -41.9% |
| 11/6/2025 | -28.3% | -49.6% | -55.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 7.9% | 22.4% | 25.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -9.5% | -10.5% | -21.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -2.1% | -4.5% | -7.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | 35.1% | 39.6% | 34.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | -2.4% | -8.9% | -18.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | -62.5% | -55.0% | -45.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 18.9% | 21.2% |
| Median Negative | -9.5% | -11.1% | -20.0% |
| Max Positive | 35.1% | 39.6% | 34.5% |
| Max Negative | -62.5% | -55.0% | -55.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 200.00 Mil | 206.00 Mil | 212.00 Mil | -2.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 212.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | -6.00 Mil | -5.00 Mil | -4.00 Mil | 28.6% | Higher New | Guidance: -7.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Cash Usage Reduction | 0.5 | 11.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.45 for 2025 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 211.00 Mil | 212.00 Mil | 213.00 Mil | -6.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 227.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | -82.4% | -7.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 8.5% for 2025 |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | 6.50 Mil | 7.00 Mil | 7.50 Mil | Lowered | Guidance: 0 for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Reduction in Cash Used | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.47 | -10.0% | -5.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.5 for 2025 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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