Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.745 | Market Cap: $174.3 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.745Market Cap: $174.3 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Medical Device Innovation. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Orthopedic Surgical Devices. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Medical Device Innovation. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Orthopedic Surgical Devices. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TMCI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) experienced a significant decline between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, largely due to a series of disappointing financial results and a revised outlook.
1. Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) significantly lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance. On November 6, 2025, the company revised its 2025 revenue guidance downward to a range of $211 million to $213 million, representing minimal growth of 1% to 2% over 2024. This was a substantial reduction from its previous guidance of $224 million to $230 million and fell well below analyst expectations.
2. The company reported a negative market reaction to its Q3 2025 earnings. Despite reporting an 11% increase in revenue to $50.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, which slightly missed analyst estimates, and a narrower net loss per share than anticipated, shares fell over 27% in after-market trading on November 6, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMCI Return | - | - | 23% | -45% | -42% | -64% | -86% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 3% | -11% | -6% | -18% | 41% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMCI Win Rate | - | 38% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 40% | 35% | 31% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMCI Max Drawdown | - | - | -31% | -74% | -67% | -65% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -15% | -31% | -31% | -27% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMCI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 498.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN
In The Past
Treace Medical Concepts's stock fell -83.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -83.3% loss requires a 498.8% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TMCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Treace Medical Concepts
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 473 |
| Op Inc LTM | -29 |
| FCF LTM | -2 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -28 |
| CFO LTM | 19 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -20 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -7.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -16.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -15.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | -14.4 |
| P/E | -11.4 |
| P/CFO | 42.6 |
| Total Yield | -6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -27.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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