Tearsheet

Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.745 | Market Cap: $174.3 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.745
Market Cap: $174.3 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Medical Device Innovation. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Orthopedic Surgical Devices.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22%
1   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Medical Device Innovation. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Orthopedic Surgical Devices.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22%
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TMCI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) experienced a significant decline between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, largely due to a series of disappointing financial results and a revised outlook.

1. Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) significantly lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance. On November 6, 2025, the company revised its 2025 revenue guidance downward to a range of $211 million to $213 million, representing minimal growth of 1% to 2% over 2024. This was a substantial reduction from its previous guidance of $224 million to $230 million and fell well below analyst expectations.

2. The company reported a negative market reaction to its Q3 2025 earnings. Despite reporting an 11% increase in revenue to $50.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, which slightly missed analyst estimates, and a narrower net loss per share than anticipated, shares fell over 27% in after-market trading on November 6, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TMCI Return--23%-45%-42%-64%-86%
Peers Return52%3%-11%-6%-18%41%52%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TMCI Win Rate-38%50%33%33%30% 
Peers Win Rate50%42%40%35%31%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TMCI Max Drawdown---31%-74%-67%-65% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-15%-31%-31%-27%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTMCIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-83.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven498.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN


In The Past

Treace Medical Concepts's stock fell -83.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -83.3% loss requires a 498.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)

Better Bets than Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TMCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Treace Medical Concepts

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TMCIAATECCERSAVRTBLLNMedian
NameTreace M.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus Avertix .BillionT. 
Mkt Price2.68149.2621.231.99-102.7621.23
Mkt Cap0.242.43.20.4--1.8
Rev LTM2196,788728199--473
Op Inc LTM-481,444-74-9---29
FCF LTM-261,088-30---2
FCF 3Y Avg-411,308-112-15---28
CFO LTM-121,495354--19
CFO 3Y Avg-281,662-36-12---20

Growth & Margins

TMCIAATECCERSAVRTBLLNMedian
NameTreace M.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus Avertix .BillionT. 
Rev Chg LTM7.9%4.5%27.1%13.0%--10.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg21.1%0.8%31.8%8.3%--14.7%
Rev Chg Q11.4%10.1%30.4%14.5%--12.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%2.4%6.7%3.5%--2.9%
Op Mgn LTM-22.1%21.3%-10.1%-4.8%---7.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.8%21.5%-21.8%-11.9%---16.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.1%3.8%1.3%--0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-5.6%22.0%4.8%1.8%--3.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-14.9%24.6%-7.6%-7.5%---7.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-12.0%16.0%-0.5%0.1%---0.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-21.0%19.4%-21.7%-9.7%---15.4%

Valuation

TMCIAATECCERSAVRTBLLNMedian
NameTreace M.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus Avertix .BillionT. 
Mkt Cap0.242.43.20.4--1.8
P/S1.94.93.01.5--2.5
P/EBIT-9.522.2-19.2-42.1---14.4
P/E-8.527.5-14.2-19.1---11.4
P/CFO-35.122.462.885.5--42.6
Total Yield-11.8%4.5%-7.0%-5.2%---6.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.2%3.7%-11.2%-5.1%---6.7%
D/E0.20.10.30.3--0.2
Net D/E0.00.10.20.1--0.1

Returns

TMCIAATECCERSAVRTBLLNMedian
NameTreace M.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus Avertix .BillionT. 
1M Rtn-59.3%3.2%10.1%30.9%--6.6%
3M Rtn-63.0%19.4%33.5%51.9%--26.5%
6M Rtn-53.6%30.4%72.9%38.2%--34.3%
12M Rtn-68.7%8.0%112.3%12.4%--10.2%
3Y Rtn-88.8%-2.0%106.7%-52.0%---27.0%
1M Excs Rtn-59.3%3.2%10.1%31.0%--6.6%
3M Excs Rtn-68.0%11.1%22.9%44.3%--17.0%
6M Excs Rtn-68.3%15.7%58.2%23.5%--19.6%
12M Excs Rtn-82.1%-4.5%89.0%-6.0%---5.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-160.7%-72.6%50.7%-119.0%---95.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,698,618
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.4%
Average Daily Volume1,624,711
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.28
Basic Shares Quantity63,515,372
Short % of Basic Shares5.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022308202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021304202210-K 12/31/2021