Millicom International Cellular (TIGO)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $53.9 | Market Cap: $9.0 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Millicom International Cellular (TIGO)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $53.9Market Cap: $9.0 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.4%, FCF Yield is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 144% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. | Key risksTIGO key risks include [1] significant exposure to political and currency instability in its core Latin American markets, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.4%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 144% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% |
| Key risksTIGO key risks include [1] significant exposure to political and currency instability in its core Latin American markets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TIGO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement of Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 17, 2025: **1. Strategic Acquisitions in Latin America.** Millicom significantly strengthened its market presence in South America through key acquisitions during this period. Notably, the company completed the acquisition of Telefónica's operations in Uruguay on October 7, 2025, and subsequently acquired Telefónica Ecuador for USD 380 million on October 30, 2025. These strategic moves expanded Millicom's footprint and were highlighted by the CEO as strong execution of the company's strategy. **2. Significant Proceeds from Infrastructure Divestment.** Millicom completed the partial closing of its infrastructure transaction with SBA Communications, which unlocked over USD 500 million in proceeds. This move was part of a larger deal expected to reach approximately USD 975 million, demonstrating the company's ability to monetize assets and generate substantial capital. **3. Approval and Distribution of a Special Interim Dividend.** On August 6, 2025, Millicom's Board approved a special interim dividend of USD 2.50 per share, with the first installment of USD 1.25 per share distributed on October 15, 2025. This direct return of capital to shareholders signaled financial strength and commitment to shareholder value, positively influencing investor sentiment. **4. Positive Analyst Coverage and Increased Price Targets.** Several analyst firms issued favorable reports and raised their price targets for TIGO. For instance, JP Morgan maintained a "Buy" rating and increased its price target from USD 50 to USD 55 on August 14, 2025, and further to USD 63 on November 17, 2025. Scotiabank also raised its price target in August and November, indicating a growing confidence among analysts in Millicom's future performance. **5. Resolution of Bribery Investigation.** A significant overhang was removed when Comunicaciones Celulares S.A., a Millicom subsidiary, resolved a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation related to historical conduct on November 10, 2025. While a settlement of USD 118 million was reported on December 14, 2025, the resolution of such legal uncertainties typically de-risks the stock and can lead to a positive market reaction.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TIGO Return | -20% | -27% | -43% | 43% | 39% | 144% | 61% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 5% | -35% | -3% | -13% | 32% | -54% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TIGO Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 25% | 58% | 75% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 17% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TIGO Max Drawdown | -58% | -32% | -53% | 0% | -13% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -9% | -49% | -15% | -18% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LILA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TIGO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1029 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1932 days | 148 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 370.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to T, ATNI, ELWT, VTEK, VZ
In The Past
Millicom International Cellular's stock fell -76.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/25/2021. A -76.9% loss requires a 332.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TIGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Millicom International Cellular
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,014 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,078 |
| FCF LTM | 558 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 406 |
| CFO LTM | 1,227 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,146 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | -38.3 |
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/CFO | 3.5 |
| Total Yield | -15.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| D/E | 3.0 |
| Net D/E | 2.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 53.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 84.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 191.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 39.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 72.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 117.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4082025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10282021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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