Millicom International Cellular (TIGO)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $54.585 | Market Cap: $9.1 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Millicom International Cellular (TIGO)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $54.585Market Cap: $9.1 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 10.0% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 150% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. | Key risksTIGO key risks include [1] significant exposure to political and currency instability in its core Latin American markets, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 10.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 150% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% |
| Key risksTIGO key risks include [1] significant exposure to political and currency instability in its core Latin American markets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TIGO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Following are the key points highlighting the movement of Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) stock by 15.9% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance.
Millicom reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.17, significantly surpassing the forecasted $0.65. The company's revenue also exceeded projections, reaching $1.42 billion against an anticipated $1.4 billion. This positive earnings surprise led to a 2.09% rise in premarket trading. Furthermore, Millicom achieved a record Adjusted EBITDA of $695 million with a 48.9% margin, alongside an improved Equity Free Cash Flow of $243 million for the quarter.
2. Strategic Acquisitions and Infrastructure Transactions.
Millicom fortified its market presence through several strategic initiatives within the period. The company completed the acquisition of 100% of Telefónica's telecommunications operations in Ecuador on October 30, 2025, and the acquisition of Telefónica in Uruguay on October 7, 2025. Additionally, Millicom finalized the divestment of Lati Honduras towers on October 27, 2025, which contributed to approximately $975 million in total proceeds from infrastructure transactions. These moves underscored Millicom's disciplined strategic plan and enhanced its financial flexibility.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TIGO Return | -20% | -27% | -43% | 43% | 39% | 142% | 60% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 5% | -35% | -3% | -13% | 27% | -56% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TIGO Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 25% | 58% | 75% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 17% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TIGO Max Drawdown | -58% | -32% | -53% | 0% | -13% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -9% | -49% | -15% | -18% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LILA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TIGO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,029 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,932 days | 148 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 370.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to T, ATNI, ELWT, VTEK, VZ
In The Past
Millicom International Cellular's stock fell -76.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/25/2021. A -76.9% loss requires a 332.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TIGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.6% | -5.6% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.1% | -3.1% | -5.1% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.7% | -27.7% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.6% | -5.6% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.1% | -3.1% | -5.1% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.7% | -27.7% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Millicom International Cellular
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,014 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,078 |
| FCF LTM | 558 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 406 |
| CFO LTM | 1,227 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,146 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | -36.6 |
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/CFO | 3.7 |
| Total Yield | -16.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| D/E | 3.1 |
| Net D/E | 2.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 50.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 88.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 192.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 34.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 70.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 106.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4082025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10282021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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