Millicom International Cellular (TIGO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.94 | Market Cap: $9.0 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Millicom International Cellular (TIGO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.94Market Cap: $9.0 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.4%, FCF Yield is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -5.0%, Dist 3Y High is -5.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 144% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. | Key risksTIGO key risks include [1] significant exposure to political and currency instability in its core Latin American markets, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.4%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -5.0%, Dist 3Y High is -5.0% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 144% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% |
| Key risksTIGO key risks include [1] significant exposure to political and currency instability in its core Latin American markets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TIGO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) stock moved by approximately 15% in the specified period:
**1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance.** Millicom reported third-quarter 2025 earnings that significantly exceeded analyst expectations, driven by record profitability and substantial gains from infrastructure transactions. This included an adjusted earnings per share of $1.17, which surpassed analyst estimates of $0.65, and a record adjusted EBITDA of $695 million, representing an 18.7% increase from the previous year.
**2. Improved Leverage and Robust Equity Free Cash Flow.** The company's leverage ratio significantly improved to 2.09x in the third quarter of 2025, largely benefiting from $537 million in one-time cash proceeds from infrastructure transactions. Millicom also reported a strong equity free cash flow of $243 million for the quarter, demonstrating enhanced financial stability.
**3. Reinstatement of Shareholder Remuneration and Dividend Declaration.** Following a period of strong financial results and a positive outlook, Millicom's board reinstated shareholder remuneration. An additional interim dividend of $2.5 per share, amounting to approximately $420 million, was declared in August 2025, signaling a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
**4. Successful Completion of Restructuring Program and Positive 2025 Targets.** The company successfully completed its restructuring program by the end of 2024, strengthening its financial position. This led to the establishment of ambitious financial targets for 2025, including a goal of generating around $750 million in equity free cash flow, which likely boosted investor confidence in future growth and profitability.
**5. Strategic Initiatives Driving Customer and Service Revenue Growth.** Millicom's strategic focus on building digital highways and expanding mobile network capacity resulted in solid customer growth, with 274,000 postpaid mobile and 49,000 Home FTTH/HFC net additions in Q4 2024, and continued strong additions in Q3 2024. This commercial momentum, along with initiatives to accelerate service revenue, indicated a positive trajectory for the company's operational performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TIGO Return | -20% | -27% | -43% | 43% | 39% | 143% | 60% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 5% | -35% | -3% | -13% | 30% | -55% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TIGO Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 25% | 58% | 75% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 17% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TIGO Max Drawdown | -58% | -32% | -53% | 0% | -13% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -9% | -49% | -15% | -18% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LILA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TIGO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,029 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,932 days | 148 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 370.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to T, ATNI, ELWT, VTEK, VZ
In The Past
Millicom International Cellular's stock fell -76.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/25/2021. A -76.9% loss requires a 332.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TIGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.9% | -27.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.9% | -27.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Millicom International Cellular
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,014 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,078 |
| FCF LTM | 558 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 406 |
| CFO LTM | 1,227 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,146 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | -38.3 |
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/CFO | 3.5 |
| Total Yield | -15.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| D/E | 3.0 |
| Net D/E | 2.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 49.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 83.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 189.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 73.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 116.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4082025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10282021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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