TFS Financial (TFSL)
Market Price (2/20/2026): $14.96 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
TFS Financial (TFSL)
Market Price (2/20/2026): $14.96Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 108% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -0.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 13x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 44x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 46x |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 19% | Key risksTFSL key risks include [1] the potential dissolution of its mutual holding company structure and [2] a high loan portfolio concentration in the Ohio and Florida regional markets. | |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 3.9% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Traditional & Regional Banking. Themes include Residential Mortgage Lending, Community Deposit Institutions, and Digital Retail Banking. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 19% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 3.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Traditional & Regional Banking. Themes include Residential Mortgage Lending, Community Deposit Institutions, and Digital Retail Banking. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -0.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 108% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 13x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 44x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 46x |
| Key risksTFSL key risks include [1] the potential dissolution of its mutual holding company structure and [2] a high loan portfolio concentration in the Ohio and Florida regional markets. |
Qualitative Assessment
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TFS Financial (TFSL) stock has gained about 15% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Results: TFS Financial reported a 20.9% increase in net income for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, reaching $26.0 million, and its earnings per share of $0.09 surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.08. This strong financial performance, announced right at the beginning of the analysis period on October 30, 2025, provided a positive catalyst for the stock.
2. Attractive and Consistent Dividend Payout: The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.2825 per share, payable on December 16, 2025, which translates to an annualized dividend of $1.13 and a high dividend yield of approximately 7.7% to 7.94%. TFS Financial's commitment to maintaining dividend payments for 12 consecutive years likely appealed to income-focused investors, contributing to positive sentiment.
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1. Strong Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Results: TFS Financial reported a 20.9% increase in net income for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, reaching $26.0 million, and its earnings per share of $0.09 surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.08. This strong financial performance, announced right at the beginning of the analysis period on October 30, 2025, provided a positive catalyst for the stock.
2. Attractive and Consistent Dividend Payout: The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.2825 per share, payable on December 16, 2025, which translates to an annualized dividend of $1.13 and a high dividend yield of approximately 7.7% to 7.94%. TFS Financial's commitment to maintaining dividend payments for 12 consecutive years likely appealed to income-focused investors, contributing to positive sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.7% change in TFSL stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.04 | 14.95 | 14.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 311 | 330 | 6.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.7% | 27.5% | 2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.7 | 45.9 | 5.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 279 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TFSL | 14.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | 31.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.4% | 45.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.8% change in TFSL stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.58 | 14.95 | 18.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 305 | 330 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.8% | 27.5% | 2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.0 | 45.9 | 6.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 279 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TFSL | 18.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.6% | 39.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.1% | 53.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.6% change in TFSL stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.61 | 14.95 | 18.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 303 | 330 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.3% | 27.5% | 4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.1 | 45.9 | 4.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 278 | 279 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TFSL | 18.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.7% | 50.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.4% | 57.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.9% change in TFSL stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.00 | 14.95 | 35.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 291 | 330 | 13.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.6% | 27.5% | 7.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.9 | 45.9 | 12.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 277 | 279 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TFSL | 35.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.7% | 45.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 49.2% | 56.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TFSL Return | 7% | -13% | 11% | -7% | 16% | 13% | 26% |
| Peers Return | 32% | 1% | 3% | 13% | 7% | 14% | 91% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TFSL Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 52% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TFSL Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -21% | -19% | -5% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -17% | -29% | -16% | -17% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HOMB, UBSI, ABCB, FFBC, PFS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TFSL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 427 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 631 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HOMB, UBSI, ABCB, FFBC, PFS
In The Past
TFS Financial's stock fell -50.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -50.3% loss requires a 101.3% gain to breakeven.
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About TFS Financial (TFSL)
TFS Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail consumer banking services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, money market, checking, individual retirement, and other qualified plan accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also provides residential real estate mortgage loans, residential construction loans, and home equity loans and lines of credit, as well as purchase mortgages and first mortgage refinance loans. In addition, it offers escrow and settlement services. The company provides its products and services through its main office in Cleveland, Ohio; and 37 full-service branches and 7 loan production offices located throughout the states of Ohio and Florida. The company was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TFS Financial Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe TFS Financial (TFSL):
- A regional, deposit-funded version of Rocket Mortgage, specializing in home loans and savings accounts.
- A community bank focused primarily on residential mortgages and savings, like a smaller, local KeyBank.
- An old-school savings and loan, akin to a neighborhood branch of PNC Bank dedicated mostly to home loans.
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- Residential Mortgage Loans: Providing financing for individuals to purchase or refinance homes.
- Home Equity Loans and Lines of Credit: Offering loans and revolving credit facilities secured by the equity in a borrower's existing home.
- Deposit Accounts: Accepting customer funds through checking, savings, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit.
- Commercial Real Estate and Other Consumer Loans: Providing a limited range of loans for commercial properties and various other personal consumer needs.
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TFS Financial (symbol: TFSL) primarily serves individual customers.
Its major customer categories include:
- Depositors: Individuals and families who open checking, savings, money market, and certificate of deposit accounts for their financial savings and day-to-day banking needs.
- Mortgage Borrowers: Individuals and families seeking residential mortgage loans for home purchases, construction, or refinancing.
- Other Loan Borrowers: Individuals seeking home equity loans or lines of credit (HELOCs), and potentially other personal loans.
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Marc A. Stefanski, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Stefanski joined Third Federal Savings and Loan in 1982 and was appointed Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer in 1987, succeeding his father in these positions. He was elected President of Third Federal Savings and Loan and TFS Financial Corporation in 2000. His parents, Ben and Gerome Stefanski, founded Third Federal Savings and Loan in 1938. Under his leadership, he oversaw the company's growth, including a minority initial public offering (IPO) in April 2007, which raised nearly $1 billion in capital. He also directed the establishment of the $55 million Third Federal Foundation. Mr. Stefanski has authored a book titled "People First," which chronicles the history of Third Federal Savings & Loan.
Meredith S. Weil, Chief Financial Officer and Director
Ms. Weil joined Third Federal Savings and Loan in 1999. She was named Chief Financial Officer of Third Federal and TFS Financial Corporation in 2024 and serves as a member of the Board of Directors. During her more than 25-year tenure with the company, she has held several key management roles, most recently as Chief Operating Officer from 2012 to 2023.
Ashley H. Williams, Vice Chairman
Ms. Williams has served as the Vice Chairman of the company since December 2022. She was appointed to the Board of Directors in 2018. Prior to this, she was the President of the Third Federal Foundation. Ms. Williams also served as Vice President of Institutional Equity Sales for Sandler O'Neill + Partners, where she researched numerous U.S. financial companies and sold security offerings to institutional clients.
Andrew J. Rubino, Chief Operating Officer and Vice President
Mr. Rubino was appointed Chief Operating Officer, effective September 1, 2025. He has served as the Association's Chief Information Officer since 2021 and joined Third Federal Savings and Loan in 2000. Throughout his tenure, Mr. Rubino has held management positions in various strategic areas, including Loan Production, Customer Care, Internet Services, Operations Support, and as Chief Marketing Officer.
Michael J. Carfagna, Chief Information Officer
Mr. Carfagna was named Chief Information Officer in 2025. He joined the organization in 2014 as a project manager focusing on strategic business initiatives. He later managed marketing research before transitioning to Information Technology in 2020. In IT, he managed software developers, project managers overseeing system enhancements, and most recently, all information systems operations.
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The key risks to TFS Financial (TFSL) include:
- Potential Dissolution of the Mutual Holding Company Structure: A primary risk for TFS Financial is the potential dissolution, or second-step conversion, of its mutual holding company structure. This could lead to a significant decline in the dividend yield and a subsequent sell-off of the stock. While the likelihood of this occurring in the near term is considered slim by some, it remains a fundamental structural risk.
- Interest Rate Risk and Economic Uncertainty: TFS Financial is significantly exposed to interest rate risk due to its business model of originating long-term fixed-rate assets funded by shorter-term liabilities. Fluctuations in interest rates and overall economic uncertainty can adversely affect the company's net interest income and overall profitability. The company typically benefits from an upward-sloping yield curve and a declining interest rate environment, making unfavorable shifts a notable risk.
- Regional Market Concentration: The company's loan portfolio exhibits a high concentration in specific regional markets, particularly Ohio and Florida. As of June 30, 2025, approximately 58.4% and 16.8% of TFS Financial's residential and construction loans, respectively, were secured by properties in these states. This concentration exposes the business to economic downturns or adverse property market fluctuations within these specific regions.
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The accelerating shift towards digital-first mortgage origination platforms and technology-driven lenders utilizing artificial intelligence for underwriting and verification processes. These platforms offer significantly faster, more convenient, and often more transparent experiences, potentially eroding the market share of traditional, branch-dependent mortgage providers like TFS Financial.
The rapid growth and increasing consumer adoption of neobanks and fintech platforms that offer superior digital banking experiences and competitive deposit rates. These agile, often branchless, financial service providers threaten to siphon away deposit funding from traditional savings and loans, impacting their cost of capital and ability to fund mortgage lending.
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TFS Financial (TFSL) operates primarily in the United States, offering retail consumer banking services with a focus on residential real estate mortgage loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, and a variety of deposit products.
The addressable markets for their main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
- Residential Mortgage Loans: The U.S. home mortgage market size was valued at approximately USD 180.91 billion in 2023, with projections to grow to around USD 501.67 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 12.00% between 2024 and 2032. Another estimate indicates the market size in 2024 at USD 204.49 billion, anticipated to reach USD 571.64 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 12.1%. The total outstanding residential mortgage debt in the U.S., including home equity loans, amounted to USD 12.33 trillion as of April 2023.
- Deposit Products (Savings, Money Market, Checking, CDs): The total deposits across all commercial banks in the United States were reported at USD 17.92 trillion in February 2025. The aggregate retail and small business deposits across all U.S. branches showed a slight increase of USD 46 million from June 2023 to June 2024, representing a gain of 0.4% on a base of USD 9.5 trillion in deposits. U.S. commercial deposits, representing about half of the total, ticked up 2% between the third quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, with expectations for continued annual growth of as much as 4% for the next three years.
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TFS Financial (TFSL) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Improved Net Interest Margin (NIM) through Higher-Yielding Loans: The company's strategy of replacing older, lower-yielding residential mortgage loans with new, higher-yielding residential and home equity loans is a significant driver of increased net interest income. This ongoing portfolio shift contributes to an improved weighted average yield on loans.
- Growth in First Mortgage and Home Equity Loan Originations: TFS Financial reported that an increase in first mortgage and home equity originations was a primary factor behind its record earnings in fiscal year 2025. Continued growth in these loan products will directly contribute to interest income.
- Increase in Non-Interest Income: Expansion in non-interest income, particularly from higher fees and service charges, notably those generated from home equity lines of credit, and net gains from the sale of loans, is expected to bolster overall revenue.
- Strong Retail Deposit Growth: Sustained growth in retail deposits, demonstrated by a $567 million increase in fiscal year 2025, provides a stable funding base for the company's lending activities. The successful launch and growth of promotional CDs, which increased by $350 million in December 2024, further support deposit acquisition and, consequently, loanable funds.
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Share Repurchases
- As of September 30, 2025, TFS Financial Corporation had 4,944,086 shares remaining authorized for repurchase under its eighth stock repurchase program.
- The company repurchased 361,869 shares during the fiscal year ended September 30, 2023, and 337,259 shares during the fiscal year ended September 30, 2022.
- Share buybacks were resumed in fiscal year 2025, following a suspension due to COVID-19 as of June 30, 2020.
Share Issuance
- TFS Financial Corporation issued 5,000,000 shares of common stock to the Third Federal Foundation.
Outbound Investments
- TFS Financial operates Third Capital, a wholly-owned subsidiary that acts as a holding company or investor in vehicles such as private equity funds.
- Third Capital maintains interests in commercial building lease transactions, title agencies providing escrow and settlement services, and the reinsurance of private mortgage insurance on residential loans.
Capital Expenditures
- In the most recent trailing twelve months, capital expenditures for TFS Financial were approximately $10.03 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | -19.1% | -23.8% |
| 01302026 | PFSI | PennyMac Financial Services | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -9.2% |
| 01232026 | FIS | Fidelity National Information Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.6% | -22.6% | -22.6% |
| 01022026 | MORN | Morningstar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -23.9% | -23.9% | -26.8% |
| 01022026 | ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.9% | -2.9% | -6.7% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 970 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 374 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 326 |
| CFO LTM | 400 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 337 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 40.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 13.4 |
| P/CFO | 13.1 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 20.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -34.4% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $14.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/23/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.21 | $13.21 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.2% | 13.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.0% | 23.1% |
| Downside Capture | 41.50 | 56.04 |
| Upside Capture | 92.40 | 68.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 26.9% | 50.4% |
TFSL Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.89 | 0.59 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| Up Beta | 3.03 | 2.99 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 0.60 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | 0.35 | -0.25 | 0.04 | 0.51 | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| Up Capture | 123% | 44% | 105% | 87% | 56% | 44% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 34 | 67 | 134 | 374 |
| Down Capture | 34% | 85% | 67% | 79% | 67% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 26 | 54 | 110 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TFSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFSL | 18.9% | 23.1% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 1.0% | 19.4% | -0.07 | 58.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 19.4% | 0.51 | 50.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.2% | 25.5% | 2.08 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 16.9% | 0.25 | 17.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.4% | 16.7% | 0.20 | 52.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.2% | 44.9% | -0.66 | 19.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TFSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFSL | 4.2% | 24.4% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 18.7% | 0.55 | 60.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 47.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.0% | 17.1% | 1.05 | 9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 12.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 48.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.9% | 57.1% | 0.34 | 17.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TFSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFSL | 5.8% | 24.4% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.3% | 22.2% | 0.59 | 64.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 52.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.0% | 15.6% | 0.80 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.8% | 20.7% | 0.29 | 51.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 12.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/29/2026 | |||
| 7/30/2025 | 4.0% | 0.9% | 12.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | 7.3% | 8.5% | 3.4% |
| 7/30/2024 | -1.5% | -7.0% | -2.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% |
| 1/30/2024 | -4.4% | -6.6% | -8.5% |
| 7/27/2023 | 4.5% | 8.5% | -1.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -2.8% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 8.5% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -4.4% | -7.0% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asher, Anthony J | Direct | Buy | 12162025 | 13.89 | 1,439 | 19,988 | 543,293 | Form | |
| 2 | Williams, Ashley H | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 13.66 | 7,600 | 103,816 | 225,527 | Form | |
| 3 | Zbanek, Cathy W | Chief Synergy Officer | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 14.13 | 20,000 | 282,600 | 751,674 | Form |
| 4 | Rubino, Andrew J | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 14.23 | 5,000 | 71,150 | 272,163 | Form |
| 5 | Weil, Meredith S | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 13.85 | 15,000 | 207,750 | 672,099 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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