TFS Financial (TFSL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.17 | Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
TFS Financial (TFSL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.17Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 122% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 104x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 19% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.63 | |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 3.9% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Traditional & Regional Banking. Themes include Residential Mortgage Lending, Community Deposit Institutions, and Digital Retail Banking. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 19% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 3.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Traditional & Regional Banking. Themes include Residential Mortgage Lending, Community Deposit Institutions, and Digital Retail Banking. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.63 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 122% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 104x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TFSL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of TFS Financial (TFSL) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Fiscal Year and Q4 2025 Earnings: TFS Financial reported record earnings of $91 million for fiscal year 2025, marking a 14.3% increase from the previous year. Additionally, the company surpassed Q4 2025 EPS estimates when it reported on October 30, 2025.
2. Growth in Net Interest and Non-Interest Income: For fiscal year 2025, TFS Financial saw a 5.1% increase in net interest income, reaching $292.7 million, and a 16.6% rise in non-interest income, totaling $28.8 million. These increases significantly contributed to the company's profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TFSL Return | -5% | 7% | -13% | 11% | -7% | 21% | 12% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TFSL Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TFSL Max Drawdown | -34% | -1% | -25% | -21% | -19% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TFSL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 427 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 631 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
TFS Financial's stock fell -50.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -50.3% loss requires a 101.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TFSL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TFS Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 180 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11222024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11242021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | WEIL MEREDITH S | Chief Financial Officer | 9042025 | Sell | 13.70 | 15,000 | 205,500 | 870,320 | Form |
| 1 | Stefanski Marc A | Chairman, President and CEO | 9022025 | Sell | 14.17 | 7,200 | 102,024 | Form | |
| 2 | Asher Anthony J | 8252025 | Buy | 13.26 | 37,675 | 499,570 | 499,570 | Form | |
| 3 | Anderson Barbara J. | 8182025 | Sell | 13.05 | 12,000 | 156,600 | 27,405 | Form | |
| 4 | Stefanski Gavin B | Chief Experience Officer | 5132025 | Sell | 13.47 | 3,505 | 47,212 | 441,358 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |