Tamboran Resources (TBN)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $35.75 | Market Cap: $715.9 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Tamboran Resources (TBN)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $35.75Market Cap: $715.9 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -1.3% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.5% Key risksTBN key risks include [1] substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern due to its urgent need for capital, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -1.3% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.5% |
| Key risksTBN key risks include [1] substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern due to its urgent need for capital, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Drilling Results and Production Outlook. Tamboran Resources announced record average 20-day initial production flow rates from its Shenandoah South 6H (SS-6H) well in the Beetaloo Basin, achieving 10.3 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd) from an 8,635-foot horizontal section, normalizing to 11.9 MMcfd per 10,000 feet, which compares favorably to Marcellus Shale wells. This technical validation, along with the targeting of first gas sales from the Shenandoah South Pilot Project in the third quarter of 2026, instilled confidence in the company's future production and revenue generation.
2. Enhanced Acreage Value and Strategic Acquisitions. The court's approval of Tamboran's acquisition of Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. in late March 2026 was a significant development, projected to increase Tamboran's net prospective acreage by 52% to 2.9 million acres and interests across over 90% of the Beetaloo depocenter. This, along with other transactions in the Beetaloo Basin, prompted Piper Sandler to raise its price target for TBN to $74 from $41 in March 2026, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and citing a basin valuation significantly higher than implied in Tamboran's enterprise value.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.7% change in TBN stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.23 | 35.87 | 31.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 20 | -12.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TBN | 31.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 6.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 27.4% | 44.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.0% change in TBN stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.38 | 35.87 | 31.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 16 | 20 | -21.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TBN | 31.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 23.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 28.6% | 41.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 49.5% change in TBN stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.99 | 35.87 | 49.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 20 | -56.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TBN | 49.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 21.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 25.0% | 30.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TBN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 19.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 50.6% | 23.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TBN Return | - | - | - | -3% | 30% | 30% | 63% |
| Peers Return | 113% | 58% | -2% | 41% | 10% | 10% | 459% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TBN Win Rate | - | - | - | 57% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 63% | 50% | 55% | 52% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TBN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -26% | -13% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | -20% | -13% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EQT, CTRA, AR, RRC, CRK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TBN has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to EQT, CTRA, AR, RRC, CRK
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Tamboran Resources (TBN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Tamboran Resources (TBN):
- An EOG Resources for Australian shale gas.
- A Range Resources for Australia's Beetaloo natural gas, but in its early development phase.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Natural Gas Exploration and Appraisal: Identifying, evaluating, and testing natural gas resources within the Beetaloo Basin to determine their commercial viability.
- Natural Gas Field Development: Planning and executing the drilling and completion of wells and associated infrastructure to enable future commercial natural gas production.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tamboran Resources (TBN) is an early-stage natural gas exploration and production company. According to the provided background information, the company is currently focused on the exploration and appraisal of natural gas resources in the Beetaloo Basin in Australia. The text explicitly states: "None of the wells drilled in the Beetaloo to date are currently flowing to sales."
As such, Tamboran Resources is not yet producing and selling natural gas commercially, and therefore does not have any major customers at this time.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Tamboran Resources (TBN) management team includes: Todd Abbott, Chief Executive Officer Todd Abbott serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Tamboran Resources. Eric Dyer, Chief Financial Officer Eric Dyer joined Tamboran Resources in 2019 and has over 20 years of experience in finance across the energy, infrastructure, and sustainability sectors. Before joining Tamboran Resources, Mr. Dyer worked as an investment banker and capital markets advisor for global and boutique investment banking firms in New York. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Economics from the University of Minnesota. Faron Thibodeaux, Chief Operating Officer Faron Thibodeaux possesses 43 years of technical and operations experience in the energy industry. He previously held the role of Vice President of Drilling, Completions and Engineering at Apache Corporation. Mr. Thibodeaux also served as the General Manager for Apache Australia and was a board member of the Permian Basin Petroleum Association. His career prior to Apache included working for Chevron. Chris Morbey, Vice President - Corporate Development and Investor Relations Chris Morbey has 11 years of experience within the energy sector. Before his current role, he was the Head of Investor Relations for Beach Energy Limited. His past experience also includes investor relations at Oil Search Limited, leading Australian energy research at Macquarie Bank, and business development at Drillsearch Energy Limited. Mr. Morbey holds a Master of Applied Finance from Macquarie University and a Bachelor of Mechanical Engineering from the University of New South Wales. Mike Flynn, Executive Vice President of Gas Marketing Mike Flynn is the Executive Vice President of Gas Marketing at Tamboran Resources Corp.AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlKey Risks to Tamboran Resources (TBN)
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Commercial Viability and Production Risk: Tamboran Resources is an early-stage natural gas exploration and production company, and its business success is fundamentally dependent on proving and achieving commercial production from its assets in the Beetaloo Basin. Currently, none of the wells drilled in the Beetaloo, including those by Tamboran, are flowing to sales. Only one of Tamboran's appraisal wells (SS1H) is presently considered capable of producing sufficient quantities of gas to justify completion, while others require further investment and workover. The lack of established commercial production introduces significant uncertainty regarding the company's ability to generate revenue and achieve profitability, as well as the actual productivity and economic viability of the Beetaloo resources. The significant capital already invested by various parties and the ongoing need for substantial capital expenditure to move from appraisal to full-scale commercial development further amplify this risk.
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Capital Intensity and Funding Risk: The exploration, appraisal, and development of unconventional natural gas resources, particularly in early-stage basins like the Beetaloo, are highly capital-intensive activities. Tamboran Resources acknowledges the need for further investment and workover on existing wells and plans for increased frac stages and longer horizontal laterals in future drilling phases, which will require substantial capital. Given that the company is not yet generating revenue from gas sales, its ability to secure sufficient funding through equity, debt, or strategic partnerships on favorable terms is critical. A failure to obtain adequate capital could severely impede its development plans, delay or prevent the commercialization of its assets, and ultimately impact its financial stability and growth prospects.
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Regulatory and Permitting Risk: Tamboran's operations in the Beetaloo Basin are subject to the regulatory framework of the Northern Territory Government, requiring the grant and renewal of exploration permits (EPs), and the successful application for retention and production licenses. The company will also be required to pay statutory royalties to the NT Government, in addition to other third-party royalties. Any adverse changes in government policy, environmental regulations, or the permitting process, including delays or denials in obtaining necessary approvals for exploration, retention, or production licenses, could significantly impact the company's ability to access and develop its acreage, leading to operational disruptions, increased costs, or even the inability to commercialize its natural gas discoveries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
<null>AI Analysis | Feedback
Tamboran Resources (TBN) is strategically positioned for significant revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key initiatives aimed at transitioning from an exploration company to a commercial natural gas producer in Australia's Beetaloo Basin.
The primary drivers of future revenue growth for Tamboran Resources include:
- Commencement of First Gas Sales from the Shenandoah South Pilot Project: Tamboran has made a Final Investment Decision (FID) for its Shenandoah South Pilot Project and anticipates achieving first commercial gas sales by mid-2026. This critical step marks the company's transition from an exploration and appraisal phase to generating initial revenue. The project is supported by a 15-year take-or-pay gas sales agreement with the Northern Territory Government, providing a stable foundation for early revenue.
- Ramp-up of Production Capacity within the Shenandoah South Pilot Project: Beyond initial gas sales, Tamboran plans to significantly increase the production capacity of its Shenandoah South Pilot Project. The company aims to enhance its compression facility's capacity to 100 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) from an initial target of approximately 40 MMcf/d. This will be achieved through an extensive drilling and stimulation program in 2026, leading to a substantial increase in the volume of gas available for sale.
- Expansion into Australian East Coast and Asian LNG Markets (Phase 2 Development): Tamboran has outlined a three-phase growth strategy, with the second phase (scheduled for 2027-2029) focusing on supplying 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas to the Australian East Coast market via a new high-pressure pipeline. The company is also expanding its focus to target Asian Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) markets. This market expansion represents a significant long-term revenue opportunity, with non-binding agreements already secured for up to 875 MMcf/d with East Coast gas retailers.
- Increased Well Productivity Through Advanced Drilling and Completion Techniques: The company is enhancing its operational efficiency and well productivity by applying North American shale development techniques and "US-style" completion designs. This includes optimized 70+ stage fracturing designs and the drilling of new 10,000-foot horizontal wells. These advanced techniques have already led to record-setting flow rates, such as 7.2 MMcf/d from the Shenandoah South 2H ST1 well, which are expected to translate into higher gas output per well and, consequently, increased revenue.
- Strategic Acreage Expansion and Resource Delineation: Tamboran's planned acquisition of Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. is set to increase its net prospective acreage in the Beetaloo Basin to 2.9 million acres, further solidifying its position as the largest acreage holder. This expansion of its resource base provides greater opportunities for future drilling and development activities, supporting sustained production growth and revenue generation beyond the initial pilot projects. The Shenandoah South Pilot Project is also designed to provide additional resource delineation, paving the way for full-scale development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- The company was incorporated in the State of Delaware on October 3, 2023, for the purposes of effecting a corporate reorganization.
Capital Expenditures
- Tamboran Resources participated in drilling six appraisal wells over the last three fiscal years, operating four of these wells, with a focus on the dry gas shale target of the Middle Velkerri B formation in the Beetaloo.
- Future capital expenditure plans anticipate increasing frac stages by extending the horizontal length of wells to enhance efficiencies and production.
- In 2023, the company imported Helmerich & Payne International Holdings, LLC’s (“H&P”) modern US FlexRig® to Australia, which is expected to increase spacing between well pads and improve drilling capabilities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Tamboran Resources Stock Surges 61%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree | 04/01/2026 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -6.5% |
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Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| Rev LTM | 4,001 |
| Op Inc LTM | 848 |
| FCF LTM | 888 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 939 |
| CFO LTM | 1,401 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,158 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 40.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 25.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 46.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 53.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 15.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 24.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 23.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $35.87 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/27/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $32.63 | $25.59 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 9.9% | 40.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 86.1% | 60.0% |
| Downside Capture | -0.22 | 0.37 |
| Upside Capture | 170.64 | 112.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 5.3% | 15.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.53 | -0.04 |
| Up Beta | -4.54 | 0.30 | 0.49 | -0.84 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| Down Beta | -1.27 | -0.45 | 0.20 | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.21 |
| Up Capture | 246% | 201% | 94% | 279% | 112% | 31% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 60 | 119 | 208 |
| Down Capture | 21% | 38% | -66% | 97% | 88% | 77% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 122 | 218 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TBN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBN | 67.8% | 60.0% | 1.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 53.0% | 22.2% | 1.83 | 29.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 17.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | 16.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 27.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 5.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -5.7% | 43.7% | -0.01 | 17.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TBN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBN | 12.0% | 57.7% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 22.6% | 26.1% | 0.78 | 23.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 19.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 14.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 8.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TBN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBN | 5.8% | 57.7% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.8% | 29.5% | 0.40 | 23.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 19.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 14.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 8.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.0% | 4.8% | 0.2% |
| 11/13/2025 | 0.2% | -2.9% | -0.1% |
| 5/14/2025 | 0.9% | -0.2% | 15.9% |
| 2/12/2025 | -2.2% | 9.9% | -7.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.1% | -3.5% | -8.9% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.5% | -9.9% | -22.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -3.2% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 0.9% | 9.9% | 15.9% |
| Max Negative | -3.5% | -9.9% | -22.3% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Phase 1 Expansion Capacity | 100.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Plateau Production | 40.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Target Gas Sales | 40.00 Mil | ||||||
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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