Tamboran Resources (TBN)
Market Price (10/10/2026): $34.15 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Tamboran Resources (TBN)
Market Price (10/10/2026): $34.15Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -27% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.5% Key risksTBN key risks include [1] substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern due to its urgent need for capital, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.5% |
| Key risksTBN key risks include [1] substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern due to its urgent need for capital, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Tamboran Resources (TBN) stock has gained about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Successful Transition to Gas Producer Counteracted by Early Revenue Stage and Financial Concerns. Tamboran Resources marked a significant operational milestone by commencing first gas sales from the Beetaloo Basin in early September 2026 and completing its Sturt Plateau Compression Facility approximately US$9 million under budget. However, this positive development was largely balanced by the fact that substantial production revenue is not anticipated until early calendar 2027 at the earliest. Furthermore, the company reported a net loss of US$26.1 million for fiscal year 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), leading its auditor to express "substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern" due to recurring operating losses and negative cash flows.
2. Strengthened Capital Position Offset by Ongoing Funding Requirements. Tamboran bolstered its financial flexibility by raising US$186 million (net of fees) in April 2026 through an underwritten public offer and entitlement offering. This resulted in US$225 million in cash and US$31 million in undrawn debt at the end of fiscal Q4 2026, with a pro forma cash position of US$240 million. This liquidity, however, was tempered by the estimated need for approximately US$113.3 million in fiscal 2027 to advance its Pilot Project and the ongoing requirement to secure a major strategic partner for large-scale development.
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Tamboran Resources (TBN) stock has gained about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Successful Transition to Gas Producer Counteracted by Early Revenue Stage and Financial Concerns. Tamboran Resources marked a significant operational milestone by commencing first gas sales from the Beetaloo Basin in early September 2026 and completing its Sturt Plateau Compression Facility approximately US$9 million under budget. However, this positive development was largely balanced by the fact that substantial production revenue is not anticipated until early calendar 2027 at the earliest. Furthermore, the company reported a net loss of US$26.1 million for fiscal year 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), leading its auditor to express "substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern" due to recurring operating losses and negative cash flows.
2. Strengthened Capital Position Offset by Ongoing Funding Requirements. Tamboran bolstered its financial flexibility by raising US$186 million (net of fees) in April 2026 through an underwritten public offer and entitlement offering. This resulted in US$225 million in cash and US$31 million in undrawn debt at the end of fiscal Q4 2026, with a pro forma cash position of US$240 million. This liquidity, however, was tempered by the estimated need for approximately US$113.3 million in fiscal 2027 to advance its Pilot Project and the ongoing requirement to secure a major strategic partner for large-scale development.
3. Positive Operational Progress Tempered by Initial Demand Limitations. The company demonstrated strong operational execution, including drilling one well to total depth in 24 days, beating its 25-day target, and successfully testing local sand across 10 stages to potentially reduce completion costs by up to US$4 million per well. Despite this efficiency, initial gas sales volumes were limited by the Northern Territory Government nominating 25 terajoules per day, below the contracted plateau of 40 terajoules per day, with take-or-pay terms deferred until the full supply period begins.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.6% change in TBN stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.51 | 34.02 | 4.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 35 | -34.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TBN | 4.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | -3.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 22.5% | 56.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.9% change in TBN stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.99 | 34.02 | -31.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 20 | 35 | -41.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TBN | -31.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.0% | -22.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 7.0% | 50.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.3% change in TBN stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.38 | 34.02 | 24.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,116 | 35 | 5968.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TBN | 24.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | -3.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 49.0% | 41.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TBN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 88.4% | 9.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 57.4% | 27.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TBN Return | - | - | - | -3% | 30% | 27% | 59% |
| Peers Return | 10505% | 50% | 12% | 48% | 11% | -8% | 26754% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TBN Win Rate | - | - | - | 57% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 62% | 52% | 58% | 52% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TBN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -39% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -40% | -28% | -28% | -29% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EQT, AR, RRC, CRK, GPOR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TBN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 18 days |
In The Past
Tamboran Resources's stock fell -34.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 51.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TBN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Tamboran Resources's stock fell -34.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 51.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tamboran Resources (TBN)
Tamboran Resources (TBN) is an early-stage independent natural gas exploration and production company primarily focused on developing significant unconventional natural gas resources in the Beetaloo Basin, located in Australia's Northern Territory. As the largest acreage holder in this prospective region, Tamboran's core objective is to commercialize these natural gas reserves. The company is committed to supporting the global energy transition by developing and producing natural gas with a goal of achieving net zero equity Scope 1 and 2 emissions.
Currently, Tamboran is in the appraisal and development phase, actively drilling and testing wells to establish the commercial viability of its assets. While none of its wells are yet flowing to commercial sales, key appraisal wells, such as Shenandoah South 1H (SS1H), have demonstrated promising initial flow rates. The company plans to optimize future production and efficiency by employing advanced drilling techniques, including extending horizontal well lengths up to three to four miles. Upon successful commercialization, Tamboran's main product will be natural gas, intended for domestic and potential international energy markets to meet demand for cleaner energy.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Tamboran Resources (TBN):
- An EOG Resources for Australian shale gas.
- A Range Resources for Australia's Beetaloo natural gas, but in its early development phase.
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- Natural Gas Exploration and Appraisal: Identifying, evaluating, and testing natural gas resources within the Beetaloo Basin to determine their commercial viability.
- Natural Gas Field Development: Planning and executing the drilling and completion of wells and associated infrastructure to enable future commercial natural gas production.
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Tamboran Resources (TBN) is an early-stage natural gas exploration and production company. According to the provided background information, the company is currently focused on the exploration and appraisal of natural gas resources in the Beetaloo Basin in Australia. The text explicitly states: "None of the wells drilled in the Beetaloo to date are currently flowing to sales."
As such, Tamboran Resources is not yet producing and selling natural gas commercially, and therefore does not have any major customers at this time.
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- Helmerich & Payne International Holdings, LLC (HP)
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Key Risks to Tamboran Resources (TBN)
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Commercial Viability and Production Risk: Tamboran Resources is an early-stage natural gas exploration and production company, and its business success is fundamentally dependent on proving and achieving commercial production from its assets in the Beetaloo Basin. Currently, none of the wells drilled in the Beetaloo, including those by Tamboran, are flowing to sales. Only one of Tamboran's appraisal wells (SS1H) is presently considered capable of producing sufficient quantities of gas to justify completion, while others require further investment and workover. The lack of established commercial production introduces significant uncertainty regarding the company's ability to generate revenue and achieve profitability, as well as the actual productivity and economic viability of the Beetaloo resources. The significant capital already invested by various parties and the ongoing need for substantial capital expenditure to move from appraisal to full-scale commercial development further amplify this risk.
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Capital Intensity and Funding Risk: The exploration, appraisal, and development of unconventional natural gas resources, particularly in early-stage basins like the Beetaloo, are highly capital-intensive activities. Tamboran Resources acknowledges the need for further investment and workover on existing wells and plans for increased frac stages and longer horizontal laterals in future drilling phases, which will require substantial capital. Given that the company is not yet generating revenue from gas sales, its ability to secure sufficient funding through equity, debt, or strategic partnerships on favorable terms is critical. A failure to obtain adequate capital could severely impede its development plans, delay or prevent the commercialization of its assets, and ultimately impact its financial stability and growth prospects.
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Regulatory and Permitting Risk: Tamboran's operations in the Beetaloo Basin are subject to the regulatory framework of the Northern Territory Government, requiring the grant and renewal of exploration permits (EPs), and the successful application for retention and production licenses. The company will also be required to pay statutory royalties to the NT Government, in addition to other third-party royalties. Any adverse changes in government policy, environmental regulations, or the permitting process, including delays or denials in obtaining necessary approvals for exploration, retention, or production licenses, could significantly impact the company's ability to access and develop its acreage, leading to operational disruptions, increased costs, or even the inability to commercialize its natural gas discoveries.
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Tamboran Resources (TBN) is strategically positioned for significant revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key initiatives aimed at transitioning from an exploration company to a commercial natural gas producer in Australia's Beetaloo Basin.
The primary drivers of future revenue growth for Tamboran Resources include:
- Commencement of First Gas Sales from the Shenandoah South Pilot Project: Tamboran has made a Final Investment Decision (FID) for its Shenandoah South Pilot Project and anticipates achieving first commercial gas sales by mid-2026. This critical step marks the company's transition from an exploration and appraisal phase to generating initial revenue. The project is supported by a 15-year take-or-pay gas sales agreement with the Northern Territory Government, providing a stable foundation for early revenue.
- Ramp-up of Production Capacity within the Shenandoah South Pilot Project: Beyond initial gas sales, Tamboran plans to significantly increase the production capacity of its Shenandoah South Pilot Project. The company aims to enhance its compression facility's capacity to 100 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) from an initial target of approximately 40 MMcf/d. This will be achieved through an extensive drilling and stimulation program in 2026, leading to a substantial increase in the volume of gas available for sale.
- Expansion into Australian East Coast and Asian LNG Markets (Phase 2 Development): Tamboran has outlined a three-phase growth strategy, with the second phase (scheduled for 2027-2029) focusing on supplying 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas to the Australian East Coast market via a new high-pressure pipeline. The company is also expanding its focus to target Asian Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) markets. This market expansion represents a significant long-term revenue opportunity, with non-binding agreements already secured for up to 875 MMcf/d with East Coast gas retailers.
- Increased Well Productivity Through Advanced Drilling and Completion Techniques: The company is enhancing its operational efficiency and well productivity by applying North American shale development techniques and "US-style" completion designs. This includes optimized 70+ stage fracturing designs and the drilling of new 10,000-foot horizontal wells. These advanced techniques have already led to record-setting flow rates, such as 7.2 MMcf/d from the Shenandoah South 2H ST1 well, which are expected to translate into higher gas output per well and, consequently, increased revenue.
- Strategic Acreage Expansion and Resource Delineation: Tamboran's planned acquisition of Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. is set to increase its net prospective acreage in the Beetaloo Basin to 2.9 million acres, further solidifying its position as the largest acreage holder. This expansion of its resource base provides greater opportunities for future drilling and development activities, supporting sustained production growth and revenue generation beyond the initial pilot projects. The Shenandoah South Pilot Project is also designed to provide additional resource delineation, paving the way for full-scale development.
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Share Issuance
- The company was incorporated in the State of Delaware on October 3, 2023, for the purposes of effecting a corporate reorganization.
Capital Expenditures
- Tamboran Resources participated in drilling six appraisal wells over the last three fiscal years, operating four of these wells, with a focus on the dry gas shale target of the Middle Velkerri B formation in the Beetaloo.
- Future capital expenditure plans anticipate increasing frac stages by extending the horizontal length of wells to enhance efficiencies and production.
- In 2023, the company imported Helmerich & Payne International Holdings, LLC’s (“H&P”) modern US FlexRig® to Australia, which is expected to increase spacing between well pads and improve drilling capabilities.
Peer Outperformance in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | 11 | 121.7% | 144.4% | 354.4% | MPC 681% · PBF 566% · VLO 544% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas | 7 | 43.9% | 68.8% | 216.8% | IMO 306% · SU 288% · XOM 224% |
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | 18 | 27.5% | 123.4% | 181.7% | INSW 1075% · LPG 885% · TRGP 504% |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 34 | 34.1% | 13.9% | 75.7% | SEI 973% · FTI 773% · TDW 560% |
| Coal & Consumable Fuels | 14 | -20.2% | 17.9% | 70.8% | EU 873% · CCJ 319% · LEU 266% |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 7 | 65.4% | 5.4% | 57.4% | VAL 136% · NE 89% · PDS 87% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ← | 51 | 23.2% | 4.9% | 44.4% | KGEI 10026% · OBE 6722% · EP 3053% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Tamboran Resources Stock Surges 61%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree | 04/01/2026 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,576 |
| Op Inc LTM | 808 |
| FCF LTM | 470 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 347 |
| CFO LTM | 1,098 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 935 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 71.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 115.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 43.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| ANDA210196 | VIGADRONE | vigabatrin | for solution | 6212018 | |||||
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| ANDA210196 | VIGADRONE | vigabatrin | for solution | 6212018 | |||||
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $34.02 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/27/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $36.33 | $33.49 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -6.4% | 1.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.5% | 59.9% |
| Downside Capture | -92.43 | -14.81 |
| Upside Capture | -40.15 | 6.39 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -2.0% | -4.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.06 | -0.74 | -0.19 | -1.11 | -0.15 | -0.09 |
| Up Beta | 0.28 | -0.84 | 0.68 | -2.97 | -1.30 | 0.04 |
| Down Beta | -1.59 | 1.36 | 0.94 | 0.50 | -0.08 | -0.29 |
| Up Capture | -165% | -79% | -54% | -73% | 31% | 15% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 31 | 59 | 119 | 267 |
| Down Capture | 33% | -109% | -92% | -62% | -5% | 60% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 66 | 129 | 284 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TBN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBN | 13.4% | 59.9% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 49.8% | 22.1% | 1.73 | 42.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.7% | 13.0% | 0.91 | -4.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.3% | 29.5% | 0.11 | 13.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.8% | 20.9% | 1.67 | 35.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.8% | 0.09 | -2.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -33.8% | 44.2% | -0.81 | 4.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TBN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBN | 10.9% | 55.9% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 23.5% | 25.5% | 0.81 | 27.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 9.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.5% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 19.6% | 0.39 | 21.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 5.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.0% | 0.39 | 11.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TBN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBN | 5.3% | 55.9% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.8% | 29.6% | 0.40 | 27.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 9.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 21.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 5.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.3% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 11.5% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/25/2026 | -3.1% | -8.5% | |
| 5/13/2026 | -2.3% | -3.6% | 8.2% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.0% | 4.8% | 0.2% |
| 11/13/2025 | 0.2% | -2.9% | -0.1% |
| 5/14/2025 | 0.9% | -0.2% | 15.9% |
| 2/12/2025 | -2.2% | 9.9% | -7.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.1% | -3.5% | -8.9% |
| 9/20/2024 | -1.0% | -1.2% | -8.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.5% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 0.9% | 9.9% | 15.9% |
| Max Negative | -3.5% | -9.9% | -22.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/25/2026 | -3.1% | -8.5% | |
| 5/13/2026 | -2.3% | -3.6% | 8.2% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.0% | 4.8% | 0.2% |
| 11/13/2025 | 0.2% | -2.9% | -0.1% |
| 5/14/2025 | 0.9% | -0.2% | 15.9% |
| 2/12/2025 | -2.2% | 9.9% | -7.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.1% | -3.5% | -8.9% |
| 9/20/2024 | -1.0% | -1.2% | -8.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.5% | -9.9% | -22.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.5% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 0.9% | 9.9% | 15.9% |
| Max Negative | -3.5% | -9.9% | -22.3% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/8/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 9/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Contracted Gas Volume | Reported | 40 | ||||||
| 2026 Indicative Monthly Tariff | Reported | 2.50 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 SPCF Capital Expenditure | Reported | 90.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 First gas sales | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Production Increase | Reported | 40.00 Mil | ||||||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Phase 1 Expansion Capacity | Reported | 100.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Plateau Production | Reported | 40.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/29/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pace, Phillip Z | Direct | Buy | 4152026 | 36.99 | 10,000 | 369,865 | 1,324,450 | Form | |
| 2 | Sheffield, Scott D | Direct | Buy | 4102026 | 36.02 | 6,990 | 251,774 | 10,533,095 | Form | |
| 3 | Pace, Phillip Z | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 23.50 | 2,000 | 47,000 | 47,000 | Form | |
| 4 | Sheffield, Bryan | See footnote | Buy | 7232025 | 17.74 | 563,697 | 9,999,985 | 55,412,682 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pace, Phillip Z | Direct | Buy | 4152026 | 36.99 | 10,000 | 369,865 | 1,324,450 | Form | |
| 2 | Sheffield, Scott D | Direct | Buy | 4102026 | 36.02 | 6,990 | 251,774 | 10,533,095 | Form | |
| 3 | Pace, Phillip Z | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 23.50 | 2,000 | 47,000 | 47,000 | Form | |
| 4 | Sheffield, Bryan | See footnote | Buy | 7232025 | 17.74 | 563,697 | 9,999,985 | 55,412,682 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 10, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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