SES AI (SES)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.13 | Market Cap: $706.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
SES AI (SES)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.13Market Cap: $706.6 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -75% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -110 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -965% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -93% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 26x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, and EV Manufacturing. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 106%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 450% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -604%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -635% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -38% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 186% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -75% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -93% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, and EV Manufacturing. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -110 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -965% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 26x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 106%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 450% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -604%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -635% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -38% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 186% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SES Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of SES AI (symbol: SES) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Strategic Acquisition of UZ Energy: The completion of SES AI's acquisition of UZ Energy for approximately $25.5 million was a significant catalyst, expanding the company's presence in the lucrative $300 billion Energy Storage Systems (ESS) market. This acquisition was highlighted multiple times as a driver for growth.
2. Launch of Molecular Universe 1.0 (MU-1) and Subscription Model: SES AI's announcement and subsequent launch of Molecular Universe 1.0, an advanced AI-powered software for battery material discovery, generated considerable investor interest. The company's plans to transition to a subscription-based business model for MU-1 were seen as a significant potential revenue stream and a way to enter new markets beyond batteries.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SES Return | - | - | -68% | -42% | 20% | -16% | -82% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 9% | -19% | 15% | -25% | 14% | 18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SES Win Rate | - | 44% | 50% | 42% | 17% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 38% | 47% | 35% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SES Max Drawdown | - | - | -68% | -56% | -85% | -82% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -9% | -41% | -14% | -37% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SES | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -87.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 707.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA
In The Past
SES AI's stock fell -87.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -87.6% loss requires a 707.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SES. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SES AI
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 3,816 |
| Op Inc LTM | 300 |
| FCF LTM | 275 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 274 |
| CFO LTM | 398 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 378 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 11.8 |
| P/CFO | 5.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -28.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -98.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312020 | 1072022 | 424B3 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |