Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $10.13 | Market Cap: $625.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $10.13Market Cap: $625.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, and Targeted Therapies. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 125% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 125% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 11/4/2026
Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX) stock has lost about 70% since it went public on 8/4/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Overvaluation and Subsequent Price Correction Post-IPO. Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX) debuted on August 4, 2026, with its stock reaching an all-time high of $49.97 on its initial trading day. However, a September 2026 analysis indicated that the company's $1.1 billion market capitalization implied a risk-adjusted fair value of only $10.16 per share, suggesting significant overvaluation at the onset. This substantial discrepancy between the initial trading price and a more conservative valuation likely contributed to the rapid decline in share price as the market adjusted expectations.
2. Prolonged Development Timelines and Lack of Near-Term Pivotal Catalysts. Despite positive Phase 1/2 data for Amsoki-cel (OBX-115) in advanced melanoma, which demonstrated a 67% objective response rate (ORR) at the recommended Phase 2 dose, critical registration-enabling topline data for this lead program are not anticipated until year-end 2027. Additionally, Phase 1 data for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not expected until the first half of fiscal year 2027. These extended timelines for definitive clinical outcomes in a clinical-stage biotechnology company can lead to investor impatience and a sustained downward pressure on the stock, especially after an inflated initial valuation.
Show more
Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX) stock has lost about 70% since it went public on 8/4/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Overvaluation and Subsequent Price Correction Post-IPO. Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX) debuted on August 4, 2026, with its stock reaching an all-time high of $49.97 on its initial trading day. However, a September 2026 analysis indicated that the company's $1.1 billion market capitalization implied a risk-adjusted fair value of only $10.16 per share, suggesting significant overvaluation at the onset. This substantial discrepancy between the initial trading price and a more conservative valuation likely contributed to the rapid decline in share price as the market adjusted expectations.
2. Prolonged Development Timelines and Lack of Near-Term Pivotal Catalysts. Despite positive Phase 1/2 data for Amsoki-cel (OBX-115) in advanced melanoma, which demonstrated a 67% objective response rate (ORR) at the recommended Phase 2 dose, critical registration-enabling topline data for this lead program are not anticipated until year-end 2027. Additionally, Phase 1 data for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not expected until the first half of fiscal year 2027. These extended timelines for definitive clinical outcomes in a clinical-stage biotechnology company can lead to investor impatience and a sustained downward pressure on the stock, especially after an inflated initial valuation.
Show more
Updated on 11/4/2026
Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX) stock has lost about 70% since it went public on 8/4/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Overvaluation and Subsequent Price Correction Post-IPO. Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX) debuted on August 4, 2026, with its stock reaching an all-time high of $49.97 on its initial trading day. However, a September 2026 analysis indicated that the company's $1.1 billion market capitalization implied a risk-adjusted fair value of only $10.16 per share, suggesting significant overvaluation at the onset. This substantial discrepancy between the initial trading price and a more conservative valuation likely contributed to the rapid decline in share price as the market adjusted expectations.
2. Prolonged Development Timelines and Lack of Near-Term Pivotal Catalysts. Despite positive Phase 1/2 data for Amsoki-cel (OBX-115) in advanced melanoma, which demonstrated a 67% objective response rate (ORR) at the recommended Phase 2 dose, critical registration-enabling topline data for this lead program are not anticipated until year-end 2027. Additionally, Phase 1 data for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not expected until the first half of fiscal year 2027. These extended timelines for definitive clinical outcomes in a clinical-stage biotechnology company can lead to investor impatience and a sustained downward pressure on the stock, especially after an inflated initial valuation.
3. Persistent Financial Losses and Looming Dilution Risk. For fiscal year 2025, Obsidian Therapeutics reported no revenue and a net loss of -$100.6 million, with Q2 2026 earnings showing a net loss of -$25.86 million. While the company completed a $350 million private placement, bringing its post-transaction cash to approximately $350 million, expected to fund operations into the second half of fiscal year 2028, analysts have noted that this may not be sufficient to bring its lead melanoma therapy to market without further capital raises. The ongoing unprofitability and the potential for future share dilution to finance lengthy clinical development continue to be significant concerns for investors.
Show less
Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX) stock has lost about 70% since it went public on 8/4/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Overvaluation and Subsequent Price Correction Post-IPO. Obsidian Therapeutics (OBX) debuted on August 4, 2026, with its stock reaching an all-time high of $49.97 on its initial trading day. However, a September 2026 analysis indicated that the company's $1.1 billion market capitalization implied a risk-adjusted fair value of only $10.16 per share, suggesting significant overvaluation at the onset. This substantial discrepancy between the initial trading price and a more conservative valuation likely contributed to the rapid decline in share price as the market adjusted expectations.
2. Prolonged Development Timelines and Lack of Near-Term Pivotal Catalysts. Despite positive Phase 1/2 data for Amsoki-cel (OBX-115) in advanced melanoma, which demonstrated a 67% objective response rate (ORR) at the recommended Phase 2 dose, critical registration-enabling topline data for this lead program are not anticipated until year-end 2027. Additionally, Phase 1 data for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not expected until the first half of fiscal year 2027. These extended timelines for definitive clinical outcomes in a clinical-stage biotechnology company can lead to investor impatience and a sustained downward pressure on the stock, especially after an inflated initial valuation.
3. Persistent Financial Losses and Looming Dilution Risk. For fiscal year 2025, Obsidian Therapeutics reported no revenue and a net loss of -$100.6 million, with Q2 2026 earnings showing a net loss of -$25.86 million. While the company completed a $350 million private placement, bringing its post-transaction cash to approximately $350 million, expected to fund operations into the second half of fiscal year 2028, analysts have noted that this may not be sufficient to bring its lead melanoma therapy to market without further capital raises. The ongoing unprofitability and the potential for future share dilution to finance lengthy clinical development continue to be significant concerns for investors.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -13.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.7% | 10.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | -13.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 30.5% | 10.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | -13.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 33.2% | 10.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | -13.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 59.5% | 10.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OBX Return | - | - | - | - | - | -68% | -68% |
| Peers Return | -36% | -63% | -32% | -36% | 16% | 6% | -87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OBX Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 31% | 30% | 35% | 37% | 47% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OBX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -71% | -70% | -73% | -65% | -69% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IOVA, LYEL, ALLO, CRBU, ATRA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
OBX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 123 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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OBX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 6 |
| Op Inc LTM | -180 |
| FCF LTM | -103 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -155 |
| CFO LTM | -102 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -154 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -22.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 164.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -46.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -11.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 25.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1,090.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -814.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -113.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -954.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -695.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -956.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -715.4% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.99 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -68.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.91 | |
| DMA Trend | ||
| Distance from DMA | -26.3% | |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 123.8% | 125.4% |
| Downside Capture | 152.15 | |
| Upside Capture | -328.31 | |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -7.5% |
OBX Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.32 | 1.06 | -1.12 | -0.95 | -3.24 | 0.95 |
| Up Beta | 0.50 | -1.57 | -5.97 | 1.66 | 2.48 | -3.64 |
| Down Beta | -2.85 | -2.12 | -1.23 | 2.10 | -5.30 | 1.08 |
| Up Capture | 429% | 209% | -190% | -74% | -28% | -3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Down Capture | 221% | 269% | 201% | 103% | 60% | 35% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBX | -67.8% | 125.4% | -2.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 33.1% | 16.7% | 1.53 | 10.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | -13.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | -8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | -23.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | 6.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBX | -20.2% | 125.4% | -2.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.3% | 15.3% | 0.40 | 10.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | -13.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | -8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | -23.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 6.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBX | -10.7% | 125.4% | -2.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.5% | 16.8% | 0.61 | 10.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | -13.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | -8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | -23.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 6.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 07/02/2026 | 424B3 |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 07/02/2026 | 424B3 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 11/4/2026