Netgear (NTGR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.28 | Market Cap: $752.6 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Netgear (NTGR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.28Market Cap: $752.6 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Network Equipment, and IoT for Buildings. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 259x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Network Equipment, and IoT for Buildings. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 259x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NTGR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, while a precise explanation for a future -3.5% stock movement cannot be provided, several recent factors could influence a downward trend in Netgear (NTGR) stock.
1. Negative Technical Indicators and Bearish Trend
As of early December 2025, Netgear's stock has shown negative technical signals and is within a falling trend. According to StockInvest.us on December 2, 2025, the stock "holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend," with "sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock." This sentiment was echoed by AInvest on November 18, 2025, which indicated a "negative" technical outlook and a "bearish" overall trend with no positive signals detected over a recent five-day period.
2. Recent Significant Price Declines
In the recent past, Netgear's stock has experienced notable declines. Zacks reported Netgear being "Down 23.4% Since Last Earnings Report" and experiencing a loss of "24.3% in 4 Weeks" in articles published a few days prior to December 4, 2025. Additionally, AInvest observed a "-15.02% price drop" for NTGR as of November 18, 2025. These reports suggest ongoing downward pressure on the stock in the weeks leading up to the current date.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NTGR Return | 66% | -28% | -38% | -19% | 91% | -8% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 30% | -27% | 24% | 21% | 9% | 88% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NTGR Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 17% | 50% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 53% | 25% | 42% | 47% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NTGR Max Drawdown | -37% | -35% | -40% | -42% | -21% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -32% | -4% | -5% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSCO, QCOM, NTAP, FFIV, FIEE. See NTGR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NTGR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 333.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 795 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CSCO, QCOM, NTAP, FFIV, FIEE
In The Past
Netgear's stock fell -76.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -76.9% loss requires a 333.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NTGR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Netgear
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 96.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.0 |
| Rev LTM | 4,807 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,099 |
| FCF LTM | 1,306 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,060 |
| CFO LTM | 1,413 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,172 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.0 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 14.6 |
| P/E | 25.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |