Nouveau Monde Graphite (NMG)
Market Price (12/16/2025): $2.93 | Market Cap: $450.9 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Nouveau Monde Graphite (NMG)
Market Price (12/16/2025): $2.93Market Cap: $450.9 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include EV Battery Materials, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 120% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 102% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include EV Battery Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 120% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 102% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NMG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Nouveau Monde Graphite's (NMG) stock movement by 49.2% from August 31, 2025, to December 16, 2025:
1. Nouveau Monde Graphite secured multiple binding offtake agreements and strengthened commercial partnerships for its Phase-2 production. The company finalized agreements with key players, including an updated binding offtake agreement with Panasonic Energy to accelerate active anode material production, and a revised marketing and offtake agreement with Traxys North America LLC for graphite concentrate. Notably, NMG also secured a significant seven-year contract with the Government of Canada for 30,000 tonnes per annum of graphite concentrate for strategic applications, effectively reserving potentially 100% of its future Phase-2 Matawinie Mine flake graphite production. These agreements significantly de-risk the project and ensure market access for NMG's output.
2. The company released an updated feasibility study reaffirming the strong economics and technical viability of its Phase-2 Matawinie Mine. On November 12, 2025, NMG announced the results of an updated feasibility study for its Phase-2 Matawinie Mine, projecting a 25-year lifespan and reinforcing its technical and economic soundness. This study, prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101, refined financial parameters to reflect commercial agreements and updated capital expenditure projections.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NMG Return | -27% | 6037% | -45% | -32% | -39% | 84% | 1775% |
| Peers Return | 63% | -23% | -61% | -41% | 2% | 19% | -65% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NMG Win Rate | 8% | 17% | 17% | 42% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 42% | 25% | 38% | 46% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NMG Max Drawdown | -32% | 0% | -50% | -48% | -52% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -34% | -64% | -47% | -52% | -65% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EAF, WWR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/15/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -87.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 667.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 427 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 584 days | 120 days |
Compare to WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK
In The Past
Nouveau Monde Graphite's stock fell -87.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/24/2021. A -87.0% loss requires a 667.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.8% | 40.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.1% | 15.1% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.8% | 40.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.1% | 15.1% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nouveau Monde Graphite
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 2.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -63 |
| FCF LTM | -65 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -40 |
| CFO LTM | -48 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -25.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -12.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -16.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -23.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | -4.0 |
| P/E | -3.3 |
| P/CFO | -8.1 |
| Total Yield | -30.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -28.8% |
| D/E | 3.3 |
| Net D/E | 2.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 35.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 41.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 55.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -33.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 34.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 28.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 35.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -108.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3242023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3302022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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