GrafTech International (EAF)
Market Price (7/11/2026): $5.91 | Market Cap: $154.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
GrafTech International (EAF)
Market Price (7/11/2026): $5.91Market Cap: $154.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -63% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include High-Performance Industrial Materials, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -90 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 635% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -150% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 890% Key risksEAF key risks include [1] its dependence on petroleum needle coke supply and [2] the potential reduction of anti-dumping tariffs that could significantly weaken its competitive position. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -63% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include High-Performance Industrial Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -90 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 635% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -150% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 890% |
| Key risksEAF key risks include [1] its dependence on petroleum needle coke supply and [2] the potential reduction of anti-dumping tariffs that could significantly weaken its competitive position. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/2/2026
GrafTech International (EAF) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Worse-than-expected Q1 2026 Earnings and Negative Profitability.
GrafTech International reported a net loss of $43 million, or $1.66 per share, for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. This significantly missed analysts' consensus estimates of a -$1.25 EPS by $0.80, representing a negative surprise of approximately 43.95%. The company's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was also negative, at $14 million, down from negative $4 million in fiscal Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in its weighted-average realized price. Following the earnings announcement on May 1, 2026, the stock declined by 8.37% in pre-market trading and 9.26% on the day, reflecting investor disappointment.
2. Persistent Pricing Pressure in the Graphite Electrode Market.
Despite a 14% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 28.1 thousand metric tons in fiscal Q1 2026, net sales of $125 million (a 12% increase year-over-year) were partially offset by a decline in the weighted-average realized price of graphite electrodes. The average selling price for Q1 2026 was approximately $3,900 per metric ton, which was a 5% decrease compared to the prior year and a 2% sequential decline from fiscal Q4 2025. GrafTech cited "multi-year market price declines" and "persistent pricing pressure" as ongoing challenges. Although the company announced price increases of $600-$1,200 per metric ton on uncommitted volume effective March 26, 2026, the full benefit is anticipated to materialize in the second half of 2026 and contribute to 2027 negotiations.
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GrafTech International (EAF) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Worse-than-expected Q1 2026 Earnings and Negative Profitability.
GrafTech International reported a net loss of $43 million, or $1.66 per share, for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. This significantly missed analysts' consensus estimates of a -$1.25 EPS by $0.80, representing a negative surprise of approximately 43.95%. The company's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was also negative, at $14 million, down from negative $4 million in fiscal Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in its weighted-average realized price. Following the earnings announcement on May 1, 2026, the stock declined by 8.37% in pre-market trading and 9.26% on the day, reflecting investor disappointment.
2. Persistent Pricing Pressure in the Graphite Electrode Market.
Despite a 14% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 28.1 thousand metric tons in fiscal Q1 2026, net sales of $125 million (a 12% increase year-over-year) were partially offset by a decline in the weighted-average realized price of graphite electrodes. The average selling price for Q1 2026 was approximately $3,900 per metric ton, which was a 5% decrease compared to the prior year and a 2% sequential decline from fiscal Q4 2025. GrafTech cited "multi-year market price declines" and "persistent pricing pressure" as ongoing challenges. Although the company announced price increases of $600-$1,200 per metric ton on uncommitted volume effective March 26, 2026, the full benefit is anticipated to materialize in the second half of 2026 and contribute to 2027 negotiations.
Show more
Updated on 7/2/2026
GrafTech International (EAF) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Worse-than-expected Q1 2026 Earnings and Negative Profitability.
GrafTech International reported a net loss of $43 million, or $1.66 per share, for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. This significantly missed analysts' consensus estimates of a -$1.25 EPS by $0.80, representing a negative surprise of approximately 43.95%. The company's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was also negative, at $14 million, down from negative $4 million in fiscal Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in its weighted-average realized price. Following the earnings announcement on May 1, 2026, the stock declined by 8.37% in pre-market trading and 9.26% on the day, reflecting investor disappointment.
2. Persistent Pricing Pressure in the Graphite Electrode Market.
Despite a 14% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 28.1 thousand metric tons in fiscal Q1 2026, net sales of $125 million (a 12% increase year-over-year) were partially offset by a decline in the weighted-average realized price of graphite electrodes. The average selling price for Q1 2026 was approximately $3,900 per metric ton, which was a 5% decrease compared to the prior year and a 2% sequential decline from fiscal Q4 2025. GrafTech cited "multi-year market price declines" and "persistent pricing pressure" as ongoing challenges. Although the company announced price increases of $600-$1,200 per metric ton on uncommitted volume effective March 26, 2026, the full benefit is anticipated to materialize in the second half of 2026 and contribute to 2027 negotiations.
3. Challenging Global Steel Industry Conditions and Oversupply.
GrafTech's performance is closely tied to the global steel industry, particularly electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production. The global steel industry is grappling with persistent challenges, including projected growing excess capacity through 2028 and sluggish demand growth. Global steel demand is anticipated to grow modestly, with projections ranging from 0.4% to 3% year-on-year in 2026. The OECD's Steel Outlook 2026 highlighted that the gap between steel production and capacity is expected to widen, leading to low utilization rates and intensifying financial pressure across the steel industry. This oversupply in the steel market directly contributes to reduced demand and pricing pressure for graphite electrodes, affecting GrafTech's profitability.
4. High Debt Load and Negative Cash Flow.
As of fiscal Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026), GrafTech reported gross debt of approximately $1.125 billion and net debt of around $1.005 billion. The company continued to experience negative cash flow from operating activities, recording $15 million used in operations, and adjusted free cash flow of negative $27 million during fiscal Q1 2026. While GrafTech maintained a total liquidity of $329 million as of March 31, 2026, and no substantial debt maturities until December 2029, the ongoing negative cash flow indicates that this liquidity is being consumed to fund operations. Analysts have expressed concerns regarding the company's ability to service its debt load without a significant improvement in profitability.
Show less
GrafTech International (EAF) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Worse-than-expected Q1 2026 Earnings and Negative Profitability.
GrafTech International reported a net loss of $43 million, or $1.66 per share, for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. This significantly missed analysts' consensus estimates of a -$1.25 EPS by $0.80, representing a negative surprise of approximately 43.95%. The company's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was also negative, at $14 million, down from negative $4 million in fiscal Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in its weighted-average realized price. Following the earnings announcement on May 1, 2026, the stock declined by 8.37% in pre-market trading and 9.26% on the day, reflecting investor disappointment.
2. Persistent Pricing Pressure in the Graphite Electrode Market.
Despite a 14% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 28.1 thousand metric tons in fiscal Q1 2026, net sales of $125 million (a 12% increase year-over-year) were partially offset by a decline in the weighted-average realized price of graphite electrodes. The average selling price for Q1 2026 was approximately $3,900 per metric ton, which was a 5% decrease compared to the prior year and a 2% sequential decline from fiscal Q4 2025. GrafTech cited "multi-year market price declines" and "persistent pricing pressure" as ongoing challenges. Although the company announced price increases of $600-$1,200 per metric ton on uncommitted volume effective March 26, 2026, the full benefit is anticipated to materialize in the second half of 2026 and contribute to 2027 negotiations.
3. Challenging Global Steel Industry Conditions and Oversupply.
GrafTech's performance is closely tied to the global steel industry, particularly electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production. The global steel industry is grappling with persistent challenges, including projected growing excess capacity through 2028 and sluggish demand growth. Global steel demand is anticipated to grow modestly, with projections ranging from 0.4% to 3% year-on-year in 2026. The OECD's Steel Outlook 2026 highlighted that the gap between steel production and capacity is expected to widen, leading to low utilization rates and intensifying financial pressure across the steel industry. This oversupply in the steel market directly contributes to reduced demand and pricing pressure for graphite electrodes, affecting GrafTech's profitability.
4. High Debt Load and Negative Cash Flow.
As of fiscal Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026), GrafTech reported gross debt of approximately $1.125 billion and net debt of around $1.005 billion. The company continued to experience negative cash flow from operating activities, recording $15 million used in operations, and adjusted free cash flow of negative $27 million during fiscal Q1 2026. While GrafTech maintained a total liquidity of $329 million as of March 31, 2026, and no substantial debt maturities until December 2029, the ongoing negative cash flow indicates that this liquidity is being consumed to fund operations. Analysts have expressed concerns regarding the company's ability to service its debt load without a significant improvement in profitability.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.1% change in EAF stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.78 | 5.89 | -13.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 504 | 517 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.3 | -16.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 26 | 26 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EAF | -13.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.1% | 35.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.5% | 26.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -62.0% change in EAF stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.51 | 5.89 | -62.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 522 | 517 | -0.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.3 | -61.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 26 | 26 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -62.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EAF | -62.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 17.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 17.6% | 14.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.4% change in EAF stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.73 | 5.89 | -39.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 514 | 517 | 0.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.3 | -39.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 26 | 26 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.4% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EAF | -39.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.2% | -3.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 24.6% | -4.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -88.3% change in EAF stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -75.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.40 | 5.89 | -88.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,054 | 517 | -50.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 0.3 | -75.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 26 | 26 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -88.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EAF | -88.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.3% | 2.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 76.6% | 1.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EAF Return | 11% | -60% | -54% | -21% | -10% | -63% | -95% |
| Peers Return | 3041% | -49% | 26% | -28% | 21% | 18% | 1979% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EAF Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 21% | 46% | 33% | 50% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EAF Max Drawdown | -27% | -65% | -69% | -75% | -95% | -71% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -58% | -45% | -45% | -47% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ENTG, NMG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EAF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -43.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 140 days |
In The Past
GrafTech International's stock fell -48.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 95.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | EAF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -43.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 140 days |
In The Past
GrafTech International's stock fell -48.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 95.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About GrafTech International (EAF)
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GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) is a global industrial company that specializes in the research, development, manufacturing, and sale of graphite and carbon-based solutions. Established in 1886, the company plays a vital role in heavy industries by providing essential components and materials for metal production processes worldwide.
The company's primary product offering is graphite electrodes, which are critical consumables used in electric arc furnaces (EAFs) to melt scrap metal and produce new steel, along with various other ferrous and non-ferrous metals. Additionally, GrafTech produces petroleum needle coke, a specialized crystalline carbon material that serves as a key raw material in the production of these very graphite electrodes, demonstrating an integrated aspect of its supply chain.
GrafTech's main customers are predominantly steel producers operating electric arc furnaces around the globe, as well as other companies involved in the production of various ferrous and non-ferrous metals. The company distributes its products internationally through a dedicated sales force, independent representatives, and distributors, serving a foundational function within the global metals industry.
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Albemarle for graphite materials in the steel industry.
Corning, but specializing in advanced graphite products for heavy industry.
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- Graphite Electrodes: These are used in electric arc furnaces to produce steel and other metals.
- Petroleum Needle Coke: This is a crystalline carbon material primarily used in the production of graphite electrodes.
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Timothy K. Flanagan, Chief Executive Officer and President
Mr. Flanagan was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of GrafTech International Ltd. in March 2024, having served as interim CEO and President since November 2023. He joined GrafTech in November 2021 as Chief Financial Officer, Vice President Finance, and Treasurer. Prior to GrafTech, he served as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., a flat-rolled steel producer, from January 2017 to February 2019, and held various financial leadership roles there since 2008. Mr. Flanagan also served as Chief Financial Officer of Benesch, Friedlander, Coplan & Aronoff, LLP, a law firm, from June 2019 to November 2021. He is a Certified Public Accountant and holds a B.S. in Accounting from the University of Dayton.
Rory O'Donnell, Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President
Mr. O'Donnell was appointed Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of GrafTech International Ltd., effective September 3, 2024. In this role, he oversees all financial aspects of the company. Before joining GrafTech, Mr. O'Donnell was Senior Vice President, Controller, and Principal Accounting Officer of Covia Corporation since February 2019, also serving as interim CFO from August 2022 to July 2023. His experience also includes serving as Senior Vice President, Controller at Signet Jewelers Limited from 2014 to 2019, and Director, Accounting & Reporting at Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Mr. O'Donnell began his career at KPMG LLP and is a Certified Public Accountant with a B.S. in Accounting from the University of Dayton.
Iñigo Perez Ortiz, Senior Vice President, Commercial and CTS
Iñigo Perez Ortiz serves as the Senior Vice President, Commercial and CTS at GrafTech International Ltd.
Andrew J. Renacci, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
Andrew J. Renacci is the Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary for GrafTech International Ltd.
Jeremy J. Clemens, Vice President, Operations
Jeremy J. Clemens holds the position of Vice President, Operations at GrafTech International Ltd.
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The key risks to GrafTech International's business are:
1. Highly Competitive Market, Industry Cyclicality, and Pricing Pressures
The graphite electrode industry, in which GrafTech International operates, is highly cyclical and subject to fluctuating demand and pricing conditions, heavily influenced by the global steel industry. Overcapacity within the graphite electrode industry, particularly from Chinese and Indian producers, has led to intense competitive pricing pressures, significantly impacting GrafTech's profitability and market share. The expiration of lucrative long-term agreements (LTAs) has further exposed the company to these volatile spot market prices, contributing to a substantial decline in revenues and persistent losses.2. Significant Debt Burden and Financial Distress
GrafTech International faces substantial financial distress characterized by elevated debt levels, depressed earnings, and high interest expenses. The company has experienced persistent operational losses and a significant cash burn, raising concerns about its liquidity and the sustainability of its capital structure. Management has identified the company's capital structure as unsustainable, highlighting the reliance on favorable market conditions for meeting financial obligations over the longer term.3. Reliance on Petroleum Needle Coke and Supply/Price Volatility
GrafTech's operations are heavily reliant on petroleum needle coke, a critical raw material for graphite electrode production. Disruptions in the supply of petroleum needle coke or fluctuations in its cost can adversely affect the company's production capabilities and financial performance. An emerging risk is the increasing demand for petroleum needle coke from the electric vehicle (EV) battery market, which could lead to supply-demand imbalances and impact its availability and pricing for graphite electrode manufacturing.AI Analysis | Feedback
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GrafTech International (symbol: EAF) operates in the addressable markets of graphite electrodes and petroleum needle coke.
Graphite Electrodes
The global market size for graphite electrodes was valued at approximately USD 7.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 11.2 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.80% from 2026 to 2034. In terms of volume, the global market size is projected to expand from 1.72 million tons in 2025 to 2.13 million tons by 2031.
Asia-Pacific is the dominant region in the graphite electrodes market, holding over 45.7% of the market share in 2025. Within North America, the United States alone accounted for over 78.80% of the regional market share in 2025.
Petroleum Needle Coke
The global petroleum needle coke market size was valued at USD 664.92 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 808.78 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 2.2% from 2025 to 2033. Other estimates place the global needle coke market value at USD 4.93 billion in 2024, projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% from 2025 to 2030, or USD 3.71 billion in 2023, predicted to reach USD 5.15 billion by 2032. Another source anticipates the global market to reach approximately USD 15.39 billion by 2035, from USD 5.4 billion in 2025.
Global consumption of needle coke reached approximately 1.4 million metric tons in 2023, with petroleum-based needle coke accounting for about 1.2 million metric tons. Asia-Pacific is the leading region for petroleum needle coke consumption, representing approximately 45% (540,000 metric tons) of global consumption in 2023. North America contributed around 20% (240,000 metric tons) to the global consumption in the same year.
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GrafTech International (EAF) anticipates several key drivers for its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Increased Sales Volume and Market Share Gains, particularly in the United States: GrafTech projects a 5-10% year-over-year increase in sales volume for 2026, continuing its strategy of shifting geographic sales mix towards the United States. The company achieved a 48% year-over-year sales volume growth in the U.S. for the full year 2025, including an 83% increase in the fourth quarter alone. This focus on key regions and its customer value proposition are expected to drive further market share gains.
- Long-Term Demand Growth for Graphite Electrodes from EAF Steelmaking: GrafTech remains confident that the steel industry's decarbonization efforts will lead to increased adoption of the electric arc furnace (EAF) method of steelmaking, which in turn will drive sustained demand for graphite electrodes. Industry analysts project modest recovery in global steel demand (excluding China) for 2026, with anticipated growth in steel demand within the European Union and increased steel production in the United States, supported by favorable domestic trade policies.
- Accelerated Demand for Petroleum Needle Coke in Lithium-ion Batteries: The company expects an acceleration in the demand for petroleum needle coke. This is driven by its use in producing synthetic graphite, a critical component for lithium-ion batteries, which are essential for the growing electric vehicle market.
- Potential for Improved Pricing Dynamics in the Graphite Electrode Market: While the graphite electrode market faced challenging pricing dynamics and aggressive competitor behavior in 2025 and into 2026, GrafTech is prioritizing value-focused growth by foregoing volume opportunities with unacceptably low margins. The company is also taking proactive measures to promote fair trade in its key markets. A modest recovery in global steel demand and potential trade protections, particularly in regions like the European Union, could contribute to a more favorable pricing environment over the next 2-3 years.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for GrafTech International (EAF)
Capital Expenditures
- GrafTech International anticipates capital expenditures of approximately $35 million for 2026, primarily focused on maintaining assets at current utilization levels.
- The company's full-year capital expenditures were approximately $40 million for 2025.
- In 2024, anticipated capital expenditures were in the range of $35 million to $40 million, following $54 million spent in 2023.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 517 |
| Op Inc LTM | -55 |
| FCF LTM | -56 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -59 |
| CFO LTM | -41 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -28 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/Op Inc | -1.7 |
| P/EBIT | -2.2 |
| P/E | -0.7 |
| P/CFO | -2.4 |
| Total Yield | -37.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -25.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -43.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -47.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -56.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -117.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graphite Electrodes | 461 | 494 | |||
| By-products and other | 43 | 45 | 28 | 60 | 47 |
| Graphite Electrodes - LTAs | 253 | 870 | 1,040 | ||
| Graphite Electrodes - Non-LTAs | 339 | 351 | 258 | ||
| Total | 504 | 539 | 620 | 1,281 | 1,346 |
| $ Mil | 2016 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate, R&D and Other expenses | -28 | ||||
| Industrial Materials | -64 | -50 | -22 | 143 | 159 |
| Corporate | -67 | ||||
| Engineered solutions | -138 | 20 | 13 | 7 | |
| Total | -92 | -256 | -3 | 156 | 166 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/19/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -70.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.23 | $11.31 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -28.5% | -47.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 87.9% | 891.4% |
| Downside Capture | 450.99 | -63.64 |
| Upside Capture | 193.38 | -116.10 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 28.4% | -3.7% |
EAF Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.46 | 1.89 | 2.46 | 1.27 | -2.77 | 0.83 |
| Up Beta | -5.70 | -4.41 | 0.78 | -1.84 | -3.59 | 0.85 |
| Down Beta | 2.53 | 3.04 | 3.14 | 2.56 | 3.13 | 2.74 |
| Up Capture | -8% | 163% | 238% | 44% | -46% | 20% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 32 | 61 | 129 | 351 |
| Down Capture | 441% | 394% | 369% | 223% | -101% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 19 | 31 | 64 | 123 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EAF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAF | -37.6% | 889.7% | 0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 22.7% | 16.7% | 1.05 | -4.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.1% | 12.5% | 1.31 | -3.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 27.8% | 0.75 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.6% | 18.7% | 0.99 | 0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.4% | 13.9% | 0.67 | 2.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.4% | 42.8% | -1.21 | -8.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EAF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAF | -44.8% | 403.8% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.7% | 17.6% | 0.61 | 3.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 4.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 19.5% | 0.27 | 2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 6.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.5% | 53.4% | 0.44 | -1.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EAF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAF | -26.5% | 317.5% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.6% | 20.0% | 0.64 | 7.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 7.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.0% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 7.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 0.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.5% | 5.3% | 19.3% |
| 2/6/2026 | -46.2% | -55.7% | -64.9% |
| 10/24/2025 | -2.1% | -26.9% | -30.0% |
| 7/25/2025 | 14.1% | 3.0% | -92.8% |
| 4/25/2025 | 7.8% | -9.1% | 59.2% |
| 2/7/2025 | -9.4% | -26.2% | -26.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 5.3% | 1.4% | -7.2% |
| 7/26/2024 | -4.7% | -16.9% | -13.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 7.6% | 15.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.8% | -11.0% | -17.1% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 19.7% | 59.2% |
| Max Negative | -46.2% | -55.7% | -92.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.5% | 5.3% | 19.3% |
| 2/6/2026 | -46.2% | -55.7% | -64.9% |
| 10/24/2025 | -2.1% | -26.9% | -30.0% |
| 7/25/2025 | 14.1% | 3.0% | -92.8% |
| 4/25/2025 | 7.8% | -9.1% | 59.2% |
| 2/7/2025 | -9.4% | -26.2% | -26.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 5.3% | 1.4% | -7.2% |
| 7/26/2024 | -4.7% | -16.9% | -13.0% |
| 4/26/2024 | -1.9% | 9.9% | 10.6% |
| 2/14/2024 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 25.8% |
| 11/3/2023 | -12.1% | -30.4% | -20.9% |
| 8/4/2023 | -22.6% | -15.7% | -31.5% |
| 4/28/2023 | -0.4% | -11.0% | -5.7% |
| 2/3/2023 | -15.3% | -20.0% | -15.3% |
| 11/4/2022 | -4.9% | -2.1% | 8.3% |
| 8/5/2022 | -9.3% | -9.8% | -25.4% |
| 5/6/2022 | -6.5% | -9.9% | -0.3% |
| 2/4/2022 | -11.9% | -9.1% | -17.1% |
| 11/5/2021 | 19.1% | 16.2% | 6.5% |
| 8/6/2021 | -1.8% | -2.8% | -4.0% |
| 5/5/2021 | -8.6% | -4.1% | -2.4% |
| 2/5/2021 | 7.0% | 19.7% | 15.2% |
| 11/3/2020 | -7.0% | 7.6% | 26.0% |
| 8/6/2020 | 5.6% | 7.9% | 0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 7.6% | 15.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.8% | -11.0% | -17.1% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 19.7% | 59.2% |
| Max Negative | -46.2% | -55.7% | -92.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/9/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Sales Volume Growth | 5.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Price Increase | 600 | 900 | 1,200 | ||||
| 2026 Cash Cost of Goods Sold per MT Decline | 0.02 | 0.0% | |||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 35.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Sales Volume Growth | 10.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Sales Volume Growth | 5.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | -1.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 9.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 35.00 Mil | -12.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 40.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/24/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Sales Volume Growth | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 10.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Cash Cost of Goods Sold per MT Decline | 0.1 | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.08 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 40.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 40.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Electrical Components & Equipment Resources |
| EC&M (Electrical Construction & Maintenance) |
| Electrical Contracting News (ECN) |
| EE Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/10/2026