Tearsheet

Ncino (NCNO)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $25.36 | Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Ncino (NCNO)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $25.36
Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NCNO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

While specific details for a -20.7% stock movement for nCino (NCNO) between August 31, 2025, and December 13, 2025, are not explicitly provided as a singular event, several factors from the latter part of this period could influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

1. Weaker-than-expected Q1 and Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: In April 2025, nCino's stock tumbled significantly after its Q4 fiscal year 2025 results. The company reported a loss per share that was four times what analysts expected and adjusted earnings per share below consensus forecasts. Additionally, projections for Q1 fiscal year 2026 and the full fiscal year 2026 also fell short of estimates, leading to a substantial drop in share price. This prior negative outlook could have continued to weigh on the stock's performance.

2. Management Concerns on Near-Term Headwinds and Competitive Pressures: Despite reporting Q3 CY2025 revenue and non-GAAP profitability that exceeded analysts' expectations, the market responded negatively. Management highlighted concerns about near-term headwinds and competitive pressures, noting that discretionary spending by financial institutions remained constrained, leading to a shift towards more targeted, efficiency-focused technology investments.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NCNO Return27%-0%-23%
Peers Return19%-9%-25%21%50%-18%23%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NCNO Win Rate36%50%58%42% 
Peers Win Rate58%50%38%57%65%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NCNO Max Drawdown-19%-16%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-20%-34%-16%-3%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FISV, FIS, JKHY, QTWO, ICE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNCNOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-59.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Ncino's stock fell -59.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/11/2022. A -59.6% loss requires a 147.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ncino (NCNO)

Better Bets than Ncino (NCNO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NCNO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ncino

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NCNOFISVFISJKHYQTWOICEMedian
NameNcino Fiserv Fidelity.Jack Hen.Q2 Intercon. 
Mkt Price25.4768.7567.11187.5075.31163.2172.03
Mkt Cap3.137.135.013.64.793.524.3
Rev LTM58621,16010,4642,41977012,5546,442
Op Inc LTM-56,0781,742602264,7931,172
FCF LTM604,6191,7794131544,0781,096
FCF 3Y Avg504,3127862981013,526542
CFO LTM676,3392,6326451814,8761,639
CFO 3Y Avg565,8481,6425251294,1511,084

Growth & Margins

NCNOFISVFISJKHYQTWOICEMedian
NameNcino Fiserv Fidelity.Jack Hen.Q2 Intercon. 
Rev Chg LTM12.1%5.2%4.2%7.7%13.9%16.3%9.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.3%6.8%6.2%6.8%11.8%10.0%8.4%
Rev Chg Q9.6%0.9%5.7%7.3%15.2%12.6%8.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%0.2%1.4%1.8%3.6%3.0%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM-0.8%28.7%16.6%24.9%3.4%38.2%20.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.6%27.0%16.1%23.3%-6.0%38.8%19.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.2%-1.3%-0.6%0.9%2.8%0.7%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM11.4%30.0%25.2%26.7%23.5%38.8%25.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.4%29.1%16.0%23.0%18.5%37.8%20.8%
FCF/Rev LTM10.2%21.8%17.0%17.1%20.0%32.5%18.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.4%21.5%7.5%13.0%14.2%32.1%13.6%

Valuation

NCNOFISVFISJKHYQTWOICEMedian
NameNcino Fiserv Fidelity.Jack Hen.Q2 Intercon. 
Mkt Cap3.137.135.013.64.793.524.3
P/S5.31.83.34.55.97.74.9
P/EBIT-11.720.517.3109.719.919.9
P/E-142.510.3226.022.5142.532.127.3
P/CFO46.25.913.116.825.019.818.3
Total Yield-0.7%9.7%2.9%5.2%0.7%4.2%3.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.4%0.8%0.0%1.1%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.5%1.9%2.6%2.7%4.3%2.7%
D/E-0.40.40.00.10.20.2
Net D/E-0.40.4-0.0-0.00.20.2

Returns

NCNOFISVFISJKHYQTWOICEMedian
NameNcino Fiserv Fidelity.Jack Hen.Q2 Intercon. 
1M Rtn-2.6%6.8%1.9%12.5%2.7%5.9%4.3%
3M Rtn-15.4%-48.8%1.0%17.5%-8.4%-6.2%-7.3%
6M Rtn-5.6%-57.8%-14.4%5.4%-12.1%-8.3%-10.2%
12M Rtn-30.3%-66.4%-19.2%5.2%-28.9%5.4%-24.0%
3Y Rtn-4.5%-32.3%-0.7%6.5%170.2%59.6%2.9%
1M Excs Rtn-2.3%7.1%2.3%12.9%3.1%6.3%4.7%
3M Excs Rtn-19.0%-51.4%-2.3%15.5%-12.4%-8.4%-10.4%
6M Excs Rtn-19.9%-72.1%-28.6%-8.8%-26.3%-22.5%-24.4%
12M Excs Rtn-42.4%-79.0%-32.2%-5.9%-41.5%-8.9%-36.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-69.5%-105.1%-68.1%-68.0%122.2%-9.6%-68.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment477    
Professional services and other revenues 64494235
Subscription revenues 345225162103
Total477408274204138


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment-44    
Total-44    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,946,486
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-4.4%
Average Daily Volume1,946,267
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.14
Basic Shares Quantity114,407,430
Short % of Basic Shares10.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/3/2025-4.8%  
8/26/202513.9%6.7%-1.9%
4/1/2025-19.7%-21.6%-18.7%
12/4/2024-12.3%-14.3%-19.6%
8/27/2024-13.9%-12.6%-10.6%
3/26/202419.0%16.3%-1.3%
11/29/2023-7.8%-1.3%12.2%
8/29/20239.7%9.9%7.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive654
# Negative567
Median Positive11.7%8.6%9.4%
Median Negative-12.3%-12.6%-7.9%
Max Positive19.0%16.3%12.2%
Max Negative-19.7%-21.6%-19.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251203202510-Q 10/31/2025
7312025826202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025528202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025401202510-K 1/31/2025
103120241204202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024827202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024529202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024326202410-K 1/31/2024
103120231129202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023829202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023531202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023328202310-K 1/31/2023
103120221130202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022901202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022601202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022331202210-K 1/31/2022