Ncino (NCNO)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $17.45 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Ncino (NCNO)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $17.45Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 80x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 373x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% Key risksNCNO key risks include [1] significant revenue churn from its U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 80x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 373x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
| Key risksNCNO key risks include [1] significant revenue churn from its U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Multiple analyst firms significantly reduced their price targets for Ncino during the first quarter of 2026. For example, between January and March 2026, J.P. Morgan adjusted its price target down by 46.67% to $16.00, Morgan Stanley lowered its target by 41.67% to $21.00, and Barclays reduced its target by 38.24% to $21.00. Baird also cut its price target by 29.41% to $24.00 in late March 2026. These widespread downgrades reflected a more conservative outlook on the company's valuation, putting downward pressure on the stock.
2. Concerns over slowing bank technology adoption and challenging contract renewals were cited as company-specific headwinds. Analysts directly mentioned these factors as reasons for trimming their price targets for NCNO in early 2026. This suggested a more difficult operating environment for Ncino in securing new business and retaining existing clients within the banking technology sector.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.9% change in NCNO stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.64 | 17.45 | -31.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 586 | 595 | 1.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.0 | 3.2 | -35.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 111 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCNO | -31.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | -0.9% | 37.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.6% change in NCNO stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.11 | 17.45 | -35.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 573 | 595 | 3.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.5 | 3.2 | -40.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 111 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCNO | -35.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 29.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 1.4% | 31.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.5% change in NCNO stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.47 | 17.45 | -36.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 523 | 595 | 13.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.1 | 3.2 | -46.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 116 | 111 | 4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCNO | -36.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 34.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 38.8% | 33.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.6% change in NCNO stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -51.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.78 | 17.45 | -29.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 408 | 595 | 45.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.7 | 3.2 | -51.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 111 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCNO | -29.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 36.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 92.6% | 31.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCNO Return | - | -48% | 27% | -0% | -24% | -31% | -65% |
| Peers Return | -9% | -25% | 21% | 50% | -19% | -20% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCNO Win Rate | - | 33% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 38% | 57% | 65% | 45% | 15% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCNO Max Drawdown | - | -54% | -19% | -16% | -36% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -34% | -16% | -3% | -31% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FISV, FIS, JKHY, QTWO, ICE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NCNO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to FISV, FIS, JKHY, QTWO, ICE
In The Past
Ncino's stock fell -59.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/11/2022. A -59.6% loss requires a 147.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Ncino (NCNO)
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- Salesforce for financial institutions.
- Workday for banking operations.
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- nCino Bank Operating System: A cloud-based platform that digitizes and automates complex banking processes, including client onboarding, loan management, account opening, and regulatory compliance, utilizing AI/ML and data analytics.
- nCino IQ: An application suite that leverages data analytics and AI/ML to provide financial institutions with automation and insights for operations, credit risk management, and regulatory compliance.
- SimpleNexus: A suite of products designed for the mortgage industry, enabling loan officers, borrowers, real estate agents, and others to engage in the homeownership process from internet-enabled devices.
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nCino (NCNO) primarily sells its software-as-a-service applications to other companies, specifically financial institutions. The provided background information does not list the names of specific major customer companies. However, it does describe the categories of financial institutions that nCino serves:
- Global financial institutions
- Enterprise banks
- Regional banks
- Community banks
- Credit unions
- New market entrants
- Independent mortgage banks
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Sean Desmond
President and Chief Executive Officer
Sean Desmond joined nCino in 2013 as Chief Customer Success Officer. He has decades of experience within global technology and financial services organizations. Desmond's responsibilities expanded over time, and he most recently served as Chief Product Officer before being appointed President and Chief Executive Officer in February 2025.
Greg Orenstein
Chief Financial Officer
Greg Orenstein has served as nCino's Chief Financial Officer since January 2023, overseeing global financial and administrative functions. He joined nCino in 2015 and has held various executive positions, including Chief Corporate Development & Strategy Officer and Chief Corporate Development & Legal Officer. Orenstein played a critical role in driving nCino's growth, including leading its initial public offering (IPO) and secondary offering in 2020. Prior to nCino, he was Of Counsel at DLA Piper and held executive positions at S1 Corporation.
Chris Gufford
Chief Product Officer
Chris Gufford serves as nCino's Chief Product Officer, where he oversees the company's global Product Development & Engineering organization. Before this role, he was the Executive Director, General Manager - Commercial Banking Solution at nCino. Gufford has over 15 years of experience in credit, banking operations, and software, having previously held multiple roles at FIS and First National Bank of Omaha.
April Rieger
Chief Legal and Administrative Officer, Corporate Secretary
April Rieger is nCino's Chief Legal & Administrative Officer and Corporate Secretary. She is responsible for the company's Legal & Compliance and People Operations teams, as well as corporate governance. Rieger joined nCino in 2018 after practicing law for 10 years at Williams & Connolly LLP and serving as a law clerk in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
Ben Miller
CEO, SimpleNexus, an nCino Company
Ben Miller is the CEO of SimpleNexus, an nCino Company. He co-founded SimpleNexus and was instrumental in scaling it into a leading digital homeownership software company in the U.S. SimpleNexus was later acquired by nCino. Miller possesses over 15 years of experience driving innovative business strategy, operations, and go-to-market activities, particularly in mortgage lending.
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Key Business Risks for nCino (NCNO)
- Reliance on Salesforce Platform and Potential Cost Increases: A significant portion of nCino's banking operating system is fundamentally built on the Salesforce platform. This reliance means that any adverse changes to Salesforce's platform pricing, strategy, or terms, including announced price increases, could materially and adversely affect nCino's business and profitability.
- Intense Competition in the Fintech Sector: The fintech industry, where nCino operates, is highly competitive and fragmented. nCino faces substantial competition from both established software providers and emerging fintech companies. This intense competition could lead to pricing pressures, potential erosion of market share, and challenges in maintaining its growth trajectory, particularly as competitors expand their offerings and target nCino's core customer base.
- Macroeconomic Downturns Affecting Financial Institution Customers: nCino generates its revenue primarily from financial institutions. Consequently, any economic downturns, instability in the financial services industry, or decreased technology spending by banks and credit unions could directly and adversely impact the demand for nCino's services and its financial results. Furthermore, specific market segments like the U.S. mortgage market have shown choppy trends, which could affect a key growth driver for nCino.
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nCino (NCNO) operates in several significant addressable markets globally for its cloud-based software applications for financial institutions.
-
Overall Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM): nCino estimates its total serviceable addressable market globally to be $19.5 billion.
-
Cloud-Based Banking Software:
- The global cloud core banking software market was valued at approximately $5.11 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach $9.58 billion by 2030.
- The global SaaS-based core banking software market size was approximately $13.48 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to about $83.67 billion by 2035.
- The global cloud computing in retail banking market reached approximately $70.69 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to $80.93 billion by 2025. North America is the largest market, holding approximately 45% of the global market share.
- The global cloud-based financial platform market size was around $20.62 billion in 2023 and is predicted to grow to approximately $54.03 billion by 2032.
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Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning (AI/ML) in Financial Services:
- The global AI for financial services market was valued at $13.7 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $123.2 billion by 2032.
- The global AI in BFSI (Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance) market size was valued at $26.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach $192.7 billion by 2034.
- The global AI in Finance Market size is estimated at $39.62 billion in 2025, with projections to boost to $350.01 billion by 2033. North America held the major market share for more than 37% of the global revenue in 2025.
- The global Generative AI in financial services market size was estimated at $2.21 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $25.71 billion by 2033. North America dominated this market with a revenue share of 39.2% in 2024.
- The global AI agents in financial services market size accounted for $1.79 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately $6.54 billion by 2035.
-
Mortgage Technology (SimpleNexus):
- The global digital mortgage software market size was valued at approximately $4.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $13.5 billion by 2032. North America is expected to dominate this market, accounting for approximately 40% of the global market share in 2023.
- Another estimate indicates the global digital mortgage solution market reached $108.87 billion in 2024 and is projected to hit $747.69 billion by 2033.
- The global Digital Mortgage Software market size was recorded at $3.50 billion in 2021, is expected to reach $8.15 billion by the end of 2025, and $44.11 billion by 2033.
- The global e-mortgage market is projected to grow from $12.1 billion in 2024 to $62.1 billion by 2034.
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nCino (NCNO) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion of AI and Machine Learning Solutions: nCino is heavily focused on integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) into its platform, notably through its Banking Advisor solutions. This initiative aims to provide financial institutions with automation and insights, leading to significant efficiency gains and driving customer adoption and early renewals. The company has reported that over 110 customers have already purchased Banking Advisor intelligence units, indicating strong momentum in this area.
- International Market Expansion: International growth is a significant driver for nCino, with international subscription revenues showing substantial year-over-year increases. The company continues to secure new and expanded contracts in regions such as Japan, Norway, Luxembourg, and the broader EMEA market, diversifying its revenue streams beyond the U.S.
- Growth in Customer Base and Cross-selling: nCino's strategy includes attracting new financial institution customers, encompassing global, enterprise, regional, and community banks, as well as credit unions and independent mortgage banks. The company also focuses on expanding relationships with its existing customer base through multi-solution deals and increasing product adoption, aiming for larger deal sizes.
- Impact of New Pricing and Monetization Strategy: The introduction of a new pricing and monetization strategy, referred to as the Intelligent Solution Framework or an asset-based pricing model, is expected to align revenue more closely with customer value. This approach aims to incentivize broader adoption, larger deal sizes, and a more favorable product mix, thereby stimulating future revenue growth, including through increased asset portfolios and AI usage.
- Recovery and Strength in the U.S. Mortgage Business: Despite some macroeconomic challenges, nCino has reported outperformance in its U.S. mortgage subscription revenues and has raised guidance for this segment. The successful rollout and "go-live" with large national homebuilders have contributed to this strength, indicating that the mortgage business will continue to be a meaningful contributor to overall revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- nCino's board of directors authorized a new stock repurchase program of up to $100 million in December 2025, representing approximately 3.7% of outstanding shares.
- In Q3 Fiscal Year 2026, the company repurchased approximately 1.4 million shares for about $39.7 million, completing its previous $100 million repurchase program (approximately 4.0 million shares).
- In Q1 Fiscal Year 2026, nCino repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares for $40.6 million at an average price of $22.17.
Share Issuance
- Stock issuance under the employee stock purchase plan amounted to $2.514 million in Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 and $2.444 million in Q3 Fiscal Year 2025.
- nCino has historically funded its capital needs through issuances of common stock, including its initial public offering in July 2020.
Inbound Investments
- Ophir Asset Management acquired a new position in nCino on February 17, 2026, purchasing 1,325,484 shares valued at approximately $33.99 million.
- Vanguard Group increased its stake in nCino by 1.7% in Q3, holding 10.30% ownership valued at $323 million.
- Picton Mahoney Asset Management initiated an approximately $11 million position in nCino in Q3.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2025, nCino acquired Sandbox Banking for $52.5 million, with a potential additional earn-out of up to $10 million.
- nCino acquired FullCircl in October 2024 for $135 million.
- In March 2024, nCino acquired DocFox, an automated onboarding solutions provider, for $75.0 million.
- In January 2022, nCino acquired SimpleNexus, a cloud-based mobile-first homeownership software company.
Capital Expenditures
- nCino's capital expenditures coverage for fiscal years ending January 2021 to 2025 averaged 7.4x.
- The capital expenditures coverage peaked in January 2025 at 24.4x.
- The company anticipated capital expenditures to be "appreciably higher in absolute dollars in fiscal 2025" for planned office build-outs, primarily an international office, estimated at approximately $8.5 million to support growth.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Ncino Earnings Notes | 12/22/2025 | |
| Is Ncino Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Is 20.7% Fall In Ncino (NCNO) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 10/16/2025 | |
| Why Ncino Stock Moved: NCNO Stock Has Lost 24% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | 08/08/2025 | |
| NCNO Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Ncino (NCNO) Valuation Ratios Comparison | 05/15/2025 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Ncino Stock | 02/28/2025 | |
| Ncino (NCNO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Ncino (NCNO) Net Income Comparison | 02/16/2025 | |
| Ncino (NCNO) Operating Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Ncino Stock Pre-Market (+19%): Beats Earnings, Guides Higher, and Launches $100M Buyback | 04/01/2026 | |
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 02/03/2026 |
Trade Ideas
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| 03312026 | PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | ALKT | Alkami Technology | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DLB | Dolby Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PTC | PTC | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.5 |
| Rev LTM | 6,571 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,198 |
| FCF LTM | 1,149 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,269 |
| CFO LTM | 1,762 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,816 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.5 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 41.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -26.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -28.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -8.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -24.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -31.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -63.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $17.45 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/10/2022 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -46.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $16.58 | $24.35 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 5.3% | -28.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 59.8% | 43.9% |
| Downside Capture | 1.16 | 0.74 |
| Upside Capture | 52.41 | 67.50 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.8% | 29.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.19 | 1.18 | 1.31 | 1.03 | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| Up Beta | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.78 | 1.50 | 0.96 | 1.02 |
| Down Beta | -0.79 | 0.78 | 0.96 | 1.04 | 0.65 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | -57% | 51% | 29% | 7% | 30% | 100% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 26 | 56 | 115 | 373 |
| Down Capture | 45% | 207% | 230% | 149% | 118% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 36 | 69 | 134 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCNO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCNO | -23.2% | 45.3% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 59.7% | 25.3% | 1.80 | 38.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 40.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | -9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 3.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 34.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -5.7% | 43.7% | -0.01 | 30.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCNO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCNO | -19.7% | 54.4% | -0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.5% | 24.7% | 0.60 | 45.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 48.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | -0.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 41.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 26.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCNO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCNO | -10.4% | 54.4% | -0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.7% | 24.3% | 0.82 | 45.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 48.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | -0.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 41.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 26.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/31/2026 | 10.6% | 18.4% | |
| 12/3/2025 | -4.8% | 1.2% | -3.9% |
| 8/26/2025 | 13.9% | 6.7% | -1.9% |
| 4/1/2025 | -19.7% | -21.6% | -18.7% |
| 12/4/2024 | -12.3% | -14.3% | -19.6% |
| 8/27/2024 | -13.9% | -12.6% | -10.6% |
| 3/26/2024 | 19.0% | 16.3% | -1.3% |
| 11/29/2023 | -7.8% | -1.3% | 12.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 10.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -12.3% | -12.6% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 19.0% | 18.4% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -21.6% | -19.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 04/01/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/01/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 3/31/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total Revenues | 154.50 Mil | 155.50 Mil | 156.50 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Subscription Revenues | 137.00 Mil | 138.00 Mil | 139.00 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Income | 38.00 Mil | 39.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | ||||
| 2027 Total Revenues | 639.00 Mil | 641.00 Mil | 643.00 Mil | 8.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 592.65 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Subscription Revenues | 569.00 Mil | 571.00 Mil | 573.00 Mil | 9.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 521.25 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Non-GAAP Operating Income | 165.00 Mil | 167.50 Mil | 170.00 Mil | 31.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 127.70 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Free Cash Flow | 132.00 Mil | 134.50 Mil | 137.00 Mil | ||||
| 2027 Annual Contract Value | 662.50 Mil | 665.00 Mil | 667.50 Mil | 17.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 565.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 12/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Total Revenues | 146.75 Mil | 147.50 Mil | 148.25 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Subscription Revenues | 130.75 Mil | 131.50 Mil | 132.25 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Income | 32.50 Mil | 33.00 Mil | 33.50 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Net Income per Diluted Share | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.22 | ||||
| 2026 Total Revenues | 591.90 Mil | 592.65 Mil | 593.40 Mil | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 587.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Subscription Revenues | 520.50 Mil | 521.25 Mil | 522.00 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 515.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Income | 127.20 Mil | 127.70 Mil | 128.20 Mil | 6.9% | Raised | Guidance: 119.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Net Income per Diluted Share | 0.9 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 15.3% | Raised | Guidance: 0.79 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Annual Contract Value (ACV) | 564.00 Mil | 565.50 Mil | 567.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 565.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sellers, Jeanette | SVP of Accounting | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 24.49 | 1,507 | 36,906 | 1,144,442 | Form |
| 2 | Desmond, Sean | CEO & President | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 24.11 | 7,331 | 176,750 | 14,914,374 | Form |
| 3 | Desmond, Sean | CEO & President | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 25.81 | 10,006 | 258,285 | 15,967,844 | Form |
| 4 | Naude, Pierre | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 25.81 | 4,881 | 125,993 | 30,655,003 | Form | |
| 5 | Orenstein, Gregory | CFO & Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 25.81 | 4,353 | 112,364 | 11,919,049 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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