MaxLinear (MXL)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $17.57 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
MaxLinear (MXL)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $17.57Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -125 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -30% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -22% | ||
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.9% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% | ||
| Key risksMXL key risks include [1] persistent GAAP operating losses indicating structural financial weaknesses and [2] an ongoing legal dispute with Silicon Motion involving a $160 million claim. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -125 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -30% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -22% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
| Key risksMXL key risks include [1] persistent GAAP operating losses indicating structural financial weaknesses and [2] an ongoing legal dispute with Silicon Motion involving a $160 million claim. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MXL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points regarding MaxLinear's (MXL) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025: **1. MaxLinear reported strong financial performance in its Third Quarter 2025 results.** The company announced net revenue of $126.5 million, marking a 16% sequential increase and a 56% year-over-year growth. This performance also included a return to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14 and positive operating cash flow of $10.1 million. **2. The company announced a significant share repurchase program in November 2025.** MaxLinear's board authorized a plan to repurchase up to $75 million of its common stock, indicating management's confidence in the company's valuation and potentially boosting shareholder value. **3. Positive revenue guidance was provided for the Fourth Quarter 2025.** MaxLinear projected Q4 2025 revenue to be between $130 million and $140 million, alongside a non-GAAP gross margin of 58% to 61%, signaling continued positive momentum and growth expectations. **4. MaxLinear continued strategic investments in key growth markets.** The company reiterated its focus on significant investments in areas such as data center optical, wireless infrastructure, passive optical networks (PON), Wi-Fi 7, Ethernet, and storage accelerators, positioning it for future expansion in high-growth segments. **5. The company's prior quarter (Q2 2025) results established a positive trajectory.** Although slightly preceding the specified period (results announced July 23, 2025), MaxLinear's robust Q2 2025 financial results, with a 13% sequential and 18% year-over-year revenue increase, as well as a return to non-GAAP profitability and positive free cash flow, set a positive tone that likely carried into the subsequent quarters within the requested timeframe.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MXL Return | 80% | 97% | -55% | -30% | -17% | -12% | -18% |
| Peers Return | 55% | 32% | -38% | 51% | 29% | 7% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MXL Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 63% | 35% | 62% | 55% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MXL Max Drawdown | -62% | -19% | -60% | -58% | -53% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -11% | -47% | -4% | -17% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AVGO, MRVL, SWKS, QRVO, QCOM. See MXL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MXL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 436.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 166.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 771 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMAT, QCOM, TXN, MSI, QRVO
In The Past
MaxLinear's stock fell -81.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -81.4% loss requires a 436.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| MaxLinear Earnings Notes | ||
| With MaxLinear Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | |
| MaxLinear (MXL) Revenue Comparison | Financials | |
| MaxLinear (MXL) Debt Comparison | Financials | |
| MaxLinear (MXL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| MaxLinear (MXL) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | |
| MaxLinear (MXL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| MaxLinear (MXL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| MaxLinear (MXL) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | |
| MXL Dip Buy Analysis |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MXL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 10312023 | MXL | MaxLinear | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 36.8% | -3.7% | -27.0% |
| 04302023 | MXL | MaxLinear | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -38.2% | -12.3% | -40.5% |
| 06302022 | MXL | MaxLinear | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.2% | -7.1% | -31.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 10312023 | MXL | MaxLinear | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 36.8% | -3.7% | -27.0% |
| 04302023 | MXL | MaxLinear | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -38.2% | -12.3% | -40.5% |
| 06302022 | MXL | MaxLinear | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.2% | -7.1% | -31.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MaxLinear
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 40.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,940 |
| Op Inc LTM | 836 |
| FCF LTM | 1,326 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,363 |
| CFO LTM | 1,596 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,627 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 40.8 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 20.4 |
| P/E | 31.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 30.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -10.8% | -13.0% | -22.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 12.6% | 10.9% | -1.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | -12.3% | -9.3% | 6.0% |
| 1/29/2025 | -19.8% | -13.5% | -33.0% |
| 10/23/2024 | 1.5% | -1.5% | 5.9% |
| 7/24/2024 | -37.1% | -36.6% | -44.7% |
| 4/24/2024 | -1.2% | -9.2% | -13.4% |
| 1/31/2024 | -11.0% | -15.3% | -2.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 12.3% | 9.0% | 11.1% |
| Median Negative | -10.8% | -11.2% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.0% | 21.9% | 43.1% |
| Max Negative | -37.1% | -36.6% | -44.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1292025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1312024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ARTUSI DANIEL A | 10302025 | Sell | 15.87 | 9,055 | 143,697 | 521,910 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |