Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)
Market Price (2/3/2026): $4.86 | Market Cap: $9.1 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)
Market Price (2/3/2026): $4.86Market Cap: $9.1 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -142% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 16x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 65% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -29% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Natural Gas Production, and US Oilfield Technologies. | Key risksMTR key risks include [1] the trust's structural inability to reinvest or acquire new assets to offset its naturally depleting reserves and [2] a complete lack of operational control, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 65% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Natural Gas Production, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -142% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 16x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -29% |
| Key risksMTR key risks include [1] the trust's structural inability to reinvest or acquire new assets to offset its naturally depleting reserves and [2] a complete lack of operational control, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Positive Technical Momentum and Buy Signals
The Mesa Royalty Trust stock demonstrated strong positive technical indicators, including "buy signals" from both short and long-term Moving Averages. A significant rise of 24.46% occurred after a pivot bottom point was issued on January 22, 2026, indicating robust buying interest. The stock also gained 3.39% on January 29, 2026, and was up 13.32% over the two weeks leading up to that date, showing consistent upward momentum.
2. Significant Reduction in Short Interest
Investor sentiment improved markedly as short interest in Mesa Royalty Trust decreased by 86.43%. This substantial reduction in bearish positions likely contributed to upward price pressure, as short sellers covered their positions.
3. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.6% change in MTR stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.72 | 4.84 | 2.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1 | 13.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 80.1% | 76.9% | -4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.3 | 21.1 | -5.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTR | 2.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.0% | -6.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 13.6% | 30.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.6% change in MTR stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.61 | 4.84 | -13.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1 | 1 | -3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 73.2% | 76.9% | 5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.8 | 21.1 | -14.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTR | -13.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.3% | 2.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 15.8% | 22.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.5% change in MTR stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.60 | 4.84 | -26.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1 | 1 | -34.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 76.6% | 76.9% | 0.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.9 | 21.1 | 11.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTR | -26.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.6% | 2.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 17.0% | 16.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -70.9% change in MTR stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -82.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.66 | 4.84 | -70.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3 | 1 | -82.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 87.4% | 76.9% | -12.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.9 | 21.1 | 93.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -70.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTR | -70.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.5% | 1.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 22.2% | 17.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTR Return | 62% | 313% | -35% | -54% | -24% | 18% | 79% |
| Peers Return | 133% | 104% | -25% | -17% | 8% | 7% | 244% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTR Win Rate | 50% | 83% | 42% | 25% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 69% | 48% | 46% | 45% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTR Max Drawdown | 0% | -0% | -44% | -56% | -27% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -1% | -36% | -24% | -18% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PBT, BSM, CRT, PRT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 152.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 170 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 487 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -67.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 206.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 894 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 364.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PBT, BSM, CRT, PRT
In The Past
Mesa Royalty Trust's stock fell -60.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/26/2022. A -60.4% loss requires a 152.4% gain to breakeven.
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About Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR):
- Mesa Royalty Trust is like a Hipgnosis Songs Fund, but instead of owning royalties from music, it owns passive royalty interests in oil and gas production that naturally deplete over time.
- It's also similar to a specialized Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), but instead of owning income-producing properties, it holds passive royalty interests in oil and gas wells, meaning its income stream is tied to production from depleting resources.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Royalty Income Distributions: Mesa Royalty Trust collects royalty payments from oil and gas production on its underlying properties and distributes the net proceeds to its unitholders.
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Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) is a royalty trust that holds a passive overriding royalty interest in certain oil and gas properties. It does not directly operate the properties, produce hydrocarbons, or sell oil and gas to end customers. Instead, MTR receives royalty payments based on the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas from the underlying properties.
Therefore, MTR does not have "customers" in the traditional sense of buyers of goods or services. Its income stream is derived from royalty payments paid by the operator of the oil and gas properties. From MTR's perspective, the primary entity providing its revenue (i.e., its "major customer" for royalty payments) is:
- **BP America Production Company** (a subsidiary of **BP plc** (symbol: BP))
BP America Production Company operates the oil and gas properties in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico, from which Mesa Royalty Trust derives its royalty income.
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- Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) does not have a traditional management team, CEO, or CFO. Instead, its affairs are managed by a Trustee.The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., Trustee
The Trustee is responsible for overseeing the collection of royalty payments generated by the underlying assets of the trust and ensuring the subsequent distribution of net proceeds to the unitholders, all in accordance with the established trust indenture. The Trustee performs administrative functions for the Trust, which has no employees. The Trust's offices are maintained at the office of the Trustee in Houston, Texas. The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A. is the successor Trustee from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
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Here are the key risks to the business of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR):-
Highly Dependent on Volatile Oil and Natural Gas Market Prices: Mesa Royalty Trust's revenue and, consequently, its distributions to unitholders, are directly tied to the highly volatile market prices of oil and natural gas. The Trust has no ability to hedge or mitigate this commodity price risk.
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Depletion of Underlying Reserves and Inability to Reinvest: The Trust holds overriding royalty interests in mature oil and gas properties, primarily in the Hugoton and San Juan Basins. These reserves are subject to natural decline and are steadily depleting. As a passive vehicle, Mesa Royalty Trust has no capacity to acquire new assets, conduct exploration, or reinvest capital to offset this inherent decline in production volumes.
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Lack of Operational Control and Reliance on Working Interest Owners: Mesa Royalty Trust does not operate the underlying oil and gas properties. Instead, it relies entirely on the working interest owners for operational decisions, development activities, and marketing of production. The Trust has little to no influence over these operations, and its distributions can be negatively affected by factors such as errors, adjustments, or accumulated excess production costs reported by the working interest owners.
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```htmlThe primary emerging threats for Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) stem from the accelerating global energy transition away from fossil fuels and the associated shifts in policy and investor sentiment.
- Accelerated Energy Transition and Demand Erosion for Natural Gas: The rapid advancements and cost reductions in renewable energy technologies (solar, wind, battery storage), coupled with increasing global efforts to decarbonize energy systems, are leading to a projected long-term decline in demand for natural gas. As MTR's revenue is solely dependent on natural gas production and prices from the San Juan Basin properties, this emerging trend directly threatens its core revenue stream.
- Stricter Environmental Regulations and Methane Emissions Controls: Growing regulatory and political pressure on fossil fuel production, particularly concerning methane emissions, poses a significant emerging threat. New or increasingly stringent regulations could increase operational costs for the underlying producers in the San Juan Basin, potentially reducing the economic viability of continued production or leading to premature abandonment of wells, thereby directly impacting MTR's royalty distributions.
- Shifting Investor Sentiment and ESG Focus: The accelerating global focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors is leading to increasing divestment from fossil fuel-related assets and a re-evaluation of long-term risk for such holdings. This emerging trend threatens the market valuation and investor appeal of Mesa Royalty Trust, potentially leading to a depressed unit price over time as capital flows away from carbon-intensive industries.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
For Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR), a passive entity that derives its income from overriding royalty interests in oil and gas properties, future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years will primarily be driven by external market factors impacting the underlying assets. The Trust's financial performance is directly tied to the volume of oil and gas produced and the prevailing market prices for these commodities.
The expected drivers of future revenue growth for Mesa Royalty Trust are:
- Increases in Oil and Natural Gas Commodity Prices: As a royalty trust, Mesa Royalty Trust's income is highly dependent on the market prices of oil and natural gas. Higher commodity prices directly translate to increased royalty income from the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its underlying interests in the Hugoton field of Kansas, the San Juan Basin in New Mexico and Colorado, and the Yellow Creek field of Wyoming.
- Growth in Production Volumes from Underlying Properties: The volume of oil and gas produced from the properties where MTR holds royalty interests is a fundamental driver of revenue. Any increase in the production rates by the operating companies on these properties would lead to higher royalty payments to the Trust.
- Improvements in Operational Efficiency and Cost Reductions by Operators: While Mesa Royalty Trust itself does not engage in exploration or production, its revenue is based on net profits from some of its royalty interests. Therefore, if the operators of the underlying oil and gas properties enhance their operational efficiencies or reduce their production costs, the net profits from which MTR's royalty is calculated could increase, leading to higher revenue for the Trust. Changes in operating costs and excess production costs have been noted to affect distributions.
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Share Repurchases
- Mesa Royalty Trust did not repurchase any units during the period covered by its Form 10-K for fiscal year 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- The Trust's royalty income is reported net of capital expenditures, as these expenditures are controlled and paid by the Working Interest Owners, not by Mesa Royalty Trust itself.
- Mesa Royalty Trust has reported capital expenditures of $0 in the last 12 months, as its structure as a royalty trust means it does not directly incur these costs.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Mesa Royalty Trust Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Mesa Royalty Trust Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| Rev LTM | 6 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4 |
| FCF LTM | - |
| FCF 3Y Avg | - |
| CFO LTM | - |
| CFO 3Y Avg | - |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -34.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -19.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -13.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -6.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 78.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 86.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
| FCF/Rev LTM | - |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| P/S | 16.2 |
| P/EBIT | 24.9 |
| P/E | 21.1 |
| P/CFO | - |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -11.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -58.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -129.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -43.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.56 | $5.06 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 6.2% | -4.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.5% | 70.1% |
| Downside Capture | -65.11 | 5.69 |
| Upside Capture | -34.47 | -26.65 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -4.6% | 2.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.90 | -1.63 | -0.22 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Up Beta | -4.12 | -4.95 | -1.70 | -0.07 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| Down Beta | 0.66 | -0.28 | 0.94 | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Up Capture | 54% | -122% | -13% | -5% | -11% | -3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 29 | 52 | 110 | 350 |
| Down Capture | -411% | -276% | -74% | 37% | 12% | 39% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 31 | 67 | 129 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTR | -27.5% | 70.0% | -0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 13.8% | 25.1% | 0.47 | 16.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.0% | 19.2% | 0.64 | 2.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 66.9% | 23.7% | 2.11 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 16.3% | 0.23 | 25.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 16.5% | -0.00 | 14.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.7% | 39.9% | -0.46 | 5.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTR | 8.6% | 76.5% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.1% | 26.5% | 0.82 | 28.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.1% | 17.1% | 0.66 | 5.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.9% | 16.6% | 0.97 | 10.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 18.9% | 0.49 | 28.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 18.8% | 0.15 | 4.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 20.9% | 57.6% | 0.56 | 0.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTR | 4.2% | 70.1% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.9% | 29.6% | 0.41 | 24.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 10.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.0% | 15.3% | 0.81 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 23.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.8% | 0.25 | 11.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 71.1% | 66.4% | 1.10 | 1.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/19/2025 | -5.7% | -3.4% | |
| 9/16/2025 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -10.2% |
| 6/18/2025 | -32.8% | -38.7% | -36.1% |
| 3/21/2025 | 0.3% | -2.1% | -13.6% |
| 12/18/2024 | -4.3% | -2.6% | 12.7% |
| 9/20/2024 | 0.0% | -2.4% | 1.6% |
| 6/18/2024 | -2.6% | 0.1% | -2.2% |
| 3/19/2024 | -5.2% | 3.0% | 11.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 13 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 11.0% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -7.9% | -12.7% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 47.2% | 53.8% |
| Max Negative | -32.8% | -38.7% | -36.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/31/2022 | 10-K |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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