Lam Research (LRCX)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $305.66 | Market Cap: $382.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Lam Research (LRCX)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $305.66Market Cap: $382.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 7.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 217% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% Key risksLRCX key risks include [1] extreme geopolitical vulnerability due to its heavy revenue concentration in Asia (87.9%) and specifically China (42.2%), Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 7.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 217% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksLRCX key risks include [1] extreme geopolitical vulnerability due to its heavy revenue concentration in Asia (87.9%) and specifically China (42.2%), Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Lam Research (LRCX) stock has gained about 45% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lam Research reported strong fiscal Q3 2026 earnings and provided optimistic guidance for fiscal Q4 2026.
On April 22, 2026, Lam Research announced its financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended March 29, 2026), reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.36 by $0.11. Revenue for the quarter reached $5.84 billion, surpassing the $5.70 billion estimate and marking a 23.8% year-over-year increase. The company also issued positive guidance for fiscal Q4 2026, with analysts anticipating EPS of $1.69 on revenues of $6.649 billion.
2. The broader semiconductor industry experienced a robust upcycle, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure and data centers.
Throughout calendar Q2 2026, the global semiconductor market witnessed significant momentum, primarily fueled by accelerated deployments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, hyperscale data centers, and advanced memory technologies such as High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM). This upward trend led to enhanced capacity utilization and tightened supply across various critical component categories, directly benefiting semiconductor equipment suppliers like Lam Research. The semiconductor sector was projected to contribute a record 48% of the S&P 500's earnings growth in calendar Q2 2026, with an expected 133% year-over-year earnings growth for the industry.
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Lam Research (LRCX) stock has gained about 45% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lam Research reported strong fiscal Q3 2026 earnings and provided optimistic guidance for fiscal Q4 2026.
On April 22, 2026, Lam Research announced its financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended March 29, 2026), reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.36 by $0.11. Revenue for the quarter reached $5.84 billion, surpassing the $5.70 billion estimate and marking a 23.8% year-over-year increase. The company also issued positive guidance for fiscal Q4 2026, with analysts anticipating EPS of $1.69 on revenues of $6.649 billion.
2. The broader semiconductor industry experienced a robust upcycle, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure and data centers.
Throughout calendar Q2 2026, the global semiconductor market witnessed significant momentum, primarily fueled by accelerated deployments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, hyperscale data centers, and advanced memory technologies such as High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM). This upward trend led to enhanced capacity utilization and tightened supply across various critical component categories, directly benefiting semiconductor equipment suppliers like Lam Research. The semiconductor sector was projected to contribute a record 48% of the S&P 500's earnings growth in calendar Q2 2026, with an expected 133% year-over-year earnings growth for the industry.
3. Multiple analyst firms upgraded Lam Research's stock and raised their price targets, reflecting growing confidence.
During the period, several analyst firms increased their price targets for Lam Research. Notable adjustments included JPMorgan Chase & Co. raising its target from $300.00 to $315.00 on April 23, 2026, and Bank of America increasing its target from $330.00 to $480.00 on June 23, 2026. Morgan Stanley also raised its price objective from $331.00 to $404.00 on July 6, 2026, while Mizuho lifted its target from $380.00 to $400.00 on July 9, 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald set a high target of $500.00 on June 29, 2026. This resulted in Lam Research maintaining a consensus "Moderate Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating from analysts, with an average 12-month price target ranging from $358.67 to $400.88.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.9% change in LRCX stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 213.51 | 305.21 | 42.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,561 | 21,682 | 5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.2% | 30.9% | 2.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.1 | 56.9 | 31.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,255 | 1,250 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 42.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 69.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 32.3% | 81.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 78.6% change in LRCX stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 170.85 | 305.21 | 78.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,592 | 21,682 | 10.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.7% | 30.9% | 4.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.2 | 56.9 | 52.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,264 | 1,250 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 78.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 78.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 65.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.3% | 77.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 215.3% change in LRCX stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 113.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.80 | 305.21 | 215.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,136 | 21,682 | 26.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.2% | 30.9% | 13.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.7 | 56.9 | 113.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,284 | 1,250 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 215.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 215.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 64.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 39.5% | 75.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 387.7% change in LRCX stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 231.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.58 | 305.21 | 387.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,857 | 21,682 | 15.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.1% | 30.9% | 18.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.2 | 56.9 | 231.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,349 | 1,250 | 8.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 387.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 387.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 66.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 106.1% | 77.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LRCX Return | 54% | -41% | 89% | -7% | 139% | 87% | 616% |
| Peers Return | 50% | -40% | 51% | 2% | 50% | 94% | 306% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LRCX Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 37% | 60% | 48% | 60% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LRCX Max Drawdown | -18% | -56% | -19% | -38% | -33% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -54% | -25% | -34% | -41% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMAT, KLAC, TER, ENTG, MKSI. See LRCX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LRCX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 400 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 287 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Lam Research's stock fell -32.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | LRCX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 400 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 287 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 705 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Lam Research's stock fell -32.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Lam Research (LRCX)
Lam Research Corporation is a leading global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. Essentially, the company designs, manufactures, and services the highly specialized machinery that is critical for producing the integrated circuits, or "chips," that power nearly all modern electronic devices. Without Lam Research's advanced equipment, semiconductor manufacturers would not be able to create the intricate structures required for today's high-performance microchips.
The company's extensive product portfolio covers several key stages of the chip-making process. This includes systems for depositing various films onto silicon wafers, such as ALTUS for tungsten metallization and SABRE for copper interconnects, as well as VECTOR and Striker for advanced deposition techniques. Lam Research also provides precision tools for etching intricate patterns into these films, with offerings like Flex for dielectric etch and Kiyo for conductor etch. Additionally, it supplies equipment for critical wafer cleaning applications through its Coronus and SP series products, and metrology systems like Metryx for precise in-line measurements.
Lam Research's primary customers are semiconductor manufacturers globally, encompassing leading foundries, memory producers, and integrated device manufacturers. The company's equipment is foundational for advancing chip technology, enabling the production of smaller, faster, and more powerful semiconductors. It serves a broad international market, with sales across the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan, playing an indispensable role in the global technology supply chain.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Think of them as the General Electric for the semiconductor industry, providing the specialized equipment that builds computer chips.
They are similar to Applied Materials (AMAT), making the critical machines used to manufacture computer chips.
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- ALTUS systems: Equipment used for depositing conformal films, particularly for tungsten metallization applications.
- SABRE products: Electrochemical deposition tools designed for copper interconnect transition and copper damascene manufacturing.
- SOLA products: Ultraviolet thermal processing equipment used for film treatments in semiconductor fabrication.
- VECTOR products: Plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and atomic layer deposition (ALD) equipment.
- SPEED products: High-density plasma chemical vapor deposition tools used for gapfill applications.
- Striker products: Single-wafer atomic layer deposition equipment providing dielectric film solutions.
- Flex: Equipment specifically designed for dielectric etch applications.
- Kiyo: Equipment used for conductor etch applications.
- Syndion: Equipment for through-silicon via (TSV) etch applications.
- Versys metal products: Equipment developed for metal etch processes.
- Coronus products: Bevel clean products intended to enhance die yield.
- Wafer Cleaning Products (e.g., Da Vinci, DV-Prime, EOS, SP series): A range of products designed to address various wafer cleaning applications.
- Metryx systems: Mass metrology systems used for high-precision in-line mass measurement in semiconductor wafer manufacturing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) sells specialized semiconductor processing equipment primarily to companies involved in the fabrication of integrated circuits. Its major customers are the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers and foundries, who require Lam Research's advanced tools for various stages of chip production, including deposition, etch, and cleaning.
Based on the nature of Lam Research's business and the semiconductor industry landscape, its major customers include:
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - TSM
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. - 005930 (KRX)
- Intel Corporation - INTC
- Micron Technology, Inc. - MU
- SK Hynix Inc. - 000660 (KRX)
- GlobalFoundries Inc. - GFS
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The major suppliers for Lam Research (LRCX) are:
- Ultra Clean Holdings (UCT)
- MKS Instruments (MKSI)
- Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS)
- VAT Group AG (VACN.SW)
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Timothy M. Archer
President and Chief Executive Officer
Timothy M. Archer became President and Chief Executive Officer of Lam Research in December 2018. He joined Lam Research in 2012 following the company's acquisition of Novellus Systems, Inc., where he had an 18-year tenure, most recently serving as Chief Operating Officer. At Novellus, he also held various technology development and leadership roles, including executive vice president of the PECVD and Electrofill Business Units and vice president of Worldwide Sales, Marketing, and Customer Satisfaction. Archer began his career at Tektronix, Inc. in 1989, focusing on processes for high-speed bipolar integrated circuits.
Douglas R. Bettinger
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Douglas R. Bettinger serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Lam Research, a position he has held since joining the company in 2013. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing finance, tax, treasury, investor relations, and corporate analytics. Prior to joining Lam Research, Bettinger was the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Avago Technologies Ltd. (now Broadcom). He also held various executive finance positions with Xilinx, Inc., 24/7 Customer (a privately-held company where he served as CFO), and Intel Corp.
Richard A. Gottscho
Executive Vice President and Strategic Advisor to the CEO – Innovation Ecosystem
Richard A. Gottscho is the Executive Vice President and Strategic Advisor to the CEO – Innovation Ecosystem at Lam Research, where he focuses on developing strategies and collaborations to accelerate innovation in the semiconductor industry. He joined Lam Research in January 1996. From 2017 to 2023, Gottscho served as Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, leading initiatives in lithography and process engineering. Before that, from 2010 to 2017, he was Executive Vice President of Lam’s Global Products Group, overseeing the company's Deposition, Etch, and Clean businesses. Prior to his tenure at Lam, he spent 15 years at Bell Laboratories, where he headed research departments in electronics materials, electronics packaging, and flat panel displays.
Sesha Varadarajan
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Sesha Varadarajan was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Lam Research effective March 6, 2026. In this role, he leads the Global Product Groups, the Customer Support Business Group (CSBG), Corporate Strategy, Global Trade and Government Affairs, and Lam India. He joined Lam Research in 2012 following the acquisition of Novellus, where he had held several leadership roles, including general manager of the PECVD and Electrofill Business Units. Varadarajan holds over 170 global patents in semiconductor wafer processing and equipment design.
Vahid Vahedi
Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer
Vahid Vahedi serves as Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer at Lam Research, a role he assumed in February 2023. He is responsible for driving innovation breakthroughs for next-generation semiconductors and leading the company's sustainability programs. Vahedi joined Lam Research in 1995. Prior to his current role, he was the senior vice president and general manager of Lam's Etch Business Unit, where he oversaw the development of dielectric etch, conductor, and 3DIC etch innovations and launched the Sense.i® etch platform.
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- Cyclical Nature of the Semiconductor Industry: Lam Research's business is highly dependent on the capital expenditures of semiconductor manufacturers, making it vulnerable to the inherent cyclicality and volatility of the semiconductor industry. Downturns in chip demand or reductions in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending by its customers directly and significantly impact the company's revenue and profitability.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Export Controls: With significant sales to the semiconductor industry in key global regions, including China, Taiwan, Korea, and other international markets, Lam Research is exposed to risks from geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and government-imposed export controls. Such factors can disrupt supply chains, restrict technology sales, and impede market access, thereby affecting its operational capabilities and financial performance.
- Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Change: The semiconductor equipment market is characterized by intense competition and rapid technological advancements. Lam Research must continually invest heavily in research and development to innovate and deliver cutting-edge solutions that meet the evolving demands of chip fabrication. Failure to keep pace with technological changes or to outperform competitors in product development could lead to a loss of market share and reduced profitability.
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Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) operates in several key addressable markets within the semiconductor processing equipment industry. Here are the estimated market sizes for their main product and service categories:
- Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE): The global wafer fabrication equipment market, which encompasses deposition, etch, and clean equipment that Lam Research provides, was valued at approximately USD 115.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 135.2 billion in 2027. Another projection estimated the global WFE market to be around USD 100 billion in calendar year 2025.
- Deposition Equipment (CVD and ALD): Lam Research offers various deposition products, including Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) and Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) systems. The global semiconductor Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) equipment market size was estimated at USD 16.71 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 21.96 billion by 2031. Another report indicated the global semiconductor CVD equipment market size was USD 16.8 billion in 2024, expected to increase to USD 23.6 billion by 2030.
- Etch Equipment: Lam Research is a leading provider of etch equipment for various applications. The global semiconductor etch equipment market size is estimated at USD 30.16 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 56.1 billion by 2034.
- Wafer Cleaning Equipment: The company offers products for wafer cleaning applications. The global semiconductor wafer cleaning equipment market size was valued at USD 9.08 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 16.75 billion by 2032.
- Metrology and Inspection Equipment: Lam Research provides Metryx mass metrology systems. The global semiconductor metrology and inspection equipment market size was valued at USD 14.92 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 27.56 billion by 2034.
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- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Infrastructure Buildout: The explosive growth in artificial intelligence chip manufacturing is a major catalyst for Lam Research. The company projects that AI spending will equate to approximately $240 billion in Worldwide Foundry Equipment (WFE) spending, translating to substantial demand for advanced manufacturing equipment. Analysts estimate that every $100 billion of AI data center spending generates about $8 billion in WFE opportunity, creating billions in potential served available market expansion for Lam Research. This demand particularly drives investments in advanced logic chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
- Advanced Packaging and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM): Advanced packaging is crucial for the transition to HBM4 and 4E technologies, involving the stacking of up to 16 layers. Lam Research anticipates its overall advanced packaging business to grow by over 40% in 2026, surpassing the general WFE growth in this segment. The company is well-positioned due to its market leadership in electroplating and through-silicon via (TSV) etch, which are critical for HBM manufacturing.
- NAND Technology Transitions and Upgrades: The 3D NAND flash memory segment offers considerable growth opportunities through 2026 and beyond, primarily due to manufacturers transitioning to higher-layer-count 3D NAND architectures (e.g., from 200+ layers towards 300+ layers). This requires equipment with greater precision and capability, with Lam Research expecting NAND revenue to increase by $1.5 billion year-over-year. There is also an estimated $40 billion in WFE conversion spending projected for NAND upgrades over the next several years.
- Growth in Foundry and Logic at Leading-Edge Nodes: Strong growth is expected in the foundry and logic segments, fueled by the increasing demand for AI compute die. Lam Research is strategically focused on "billion dollar plus technology inflections" such as gate-all-around (GAA) structures and backside power distribution, which are critical advancements in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing. The company aims to expand its share of WFE as customers migrate to these advanced nodes.
- Expansion of Customer Support Business Group (CSBG) and Advanced Services: The Customer Support Business Group, which includes spares, upgrades, and advanced services, is a key component of Lam's growth strategy. The company's installed base of chambers has grown to 102,000, up from 96,000 in the prior year, and it expects CSBG revenue to grow faster than its installed base. This growth is driven by customers seeking to upgrade and repurpose existing tools to enhance productivity and optimize capital spending.
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Share Repurchases
- Lam Research spent $3.42 billion on share repurchases in fiscal year 2025.
- In fiscal year 2025, the company returned $4.5 billion to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends.
- As of the quarter ended June 29, 2025, Lam Research had an $8.8 billion remaining share repurchase authorization.
Share Issuance
- Lam Research has demonstrated a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -3.6% for average shares diluted over the last 10 years, indicating a net reduction in outstanding shares.
- The company's dilution risk score was assessed as low (90/100) as of March 14, 2026.
- Lam Research completed a ten-for-one stock split in October 2024.
Inbound Investments
No significant inbound investments made in Lam Research by third parties were readily available in the provided information for the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- Lam Research's growth strategy includes expanding its served addressable market through multi-product solutions and selective acquisitions or joint developments.
- In March 2026, Lam Research announced a collaboration with IBM to advance sub-1nm logic scaling, indicating strategic R&D investment.
Capital Expenditures
- Lam Research deploys cash for capital expenditures as part of its financial operations.
- The company invests approximately $2.5 billion annually in research and development.
- Lam Research is actively expanding its manufacturing footprint, particularly in Asia, with Malaysia housing its largest factory.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 317.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 165.2 |
| Rev LTM | 8,584 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,244 |
| FCF LTM | 2,281 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,029 |
| CFO LTM | 2,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,294 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 165.2 |
| P/S | 14.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 49.6 |
| P/EBIT | 45.0 |
| P/E | 61.5 |
| P/CFO | 54.1 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -21.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 46.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 203.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 261.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 185.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 189.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $305.21 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 381.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -29.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $338.34 | $237.22 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -9.8% | 28.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 77.7% | 59.7% |
| Downside Capture | 461.68 | 297.15 |
| Upside Capture | 458.37 | 383.80 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 69.5% | 65.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.08 | 4.07 | 3.50 | 3.24 | 2.96 | 2.14 |
| Up Beta | 3.53 | 4.46 | 3.36 | 3.24 | 3.10 | 1.97 |
| Down Beta | 4.48 | 3.37 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.57 | 1.87 |
| Up Capture | 801% | 817% | 670% | 1017% | 1571% | 6956% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 26 | 39 | 71 | 151 | 410 |
| Down Capture | 214% | 267% | 277% | 205% | 167% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 15 | 24 | 54 | 101 | 340 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LRCX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 217.5% | 59.5% | 2.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 35.9% | 24.8% | 1.19 | 76.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 65.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 28.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | -11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 5.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.2% | 42.9% | -1.32 | 31.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LRCX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 40.5% | 48.1% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.4% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 78.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 69.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 16.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 10.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 32.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 27.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LRCX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 44.5% | 45.7% | 0.97 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.1% | 24.8% | 0.88 | 76.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 69.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 13.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 18.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 40.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.1% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 19.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/22/2026 | -2.6% | -6.3% | 13.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 3.6% | -12.4% | -2.4% |
| 10/22/2025 | 4.5% | 13.7% | -1.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | -4.3% | -3.2% | 5.0% |
| 4/23/2025 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 23.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 7.4% | 9.0% | 2.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.1% | 4.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.9% | -18.8% | -13.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -4.2% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 16.8% | 39.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.9% | -18.8% | -13.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/22/2026 | -2.6% | -6.3% | 13.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 3.6% | -12.4% | -2.4% |
| 10/22/2025 | 4.5% | 13.7% | -1.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | -4.3% | -3.2% | 5.0% |
| 4/23/2025 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 23.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 7.4% | 9.0% | 2.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.1% | 4.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.9% | -18.8% | -13.5% |
| 4/24/2024 | 1.9% | -1.9% | 8.3% |
| 1/24/2024 | 2.1% | -2.7% | 9.5% |
| 10/18/2023 | -6.3% | -9.2% | 9.1% |
| 7/26/2023 | 9.3% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| 4/19/2023 | 7.2% | 1.3% | 21.9% |
| 1/25/2023 | 1.9% | 8.6% | -2.0% |
| 10/19/2022 | 7.8% | 16.8% | 39.7% |
| 7/27/2022 | 3.7% | 12.2% | 2.3% |
| 4/20/2022 | -2.5% | -5.1% | -1.9% |
| 1/26/2022 | -6.9% | 2.5% | -3.9% |
| 10/20/2021 | -1.8% | -2.1% | 12.4% |
| 7/28/2021 | -2.4% | 2.3% | -7.8% |
| 4/21/2021 | -4.2% | -0.5% | -2.3% |
| 1/27/2021 | -1.5% | -2.1% | 10.1% |
| 10/21/2020 | -2.3% | -7.6% | 19.4% |
| 7/29/2020 | 4.9% | 6.3% | -5.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -4.2% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 16.8% | 39.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.9% | -18.8% | -13.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/24/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/18/2020 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/29/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/20/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 6.20 Bil | 6.60 Bil | 7.00 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Gross margin | 49.5% | 50.5% | 51.5% | ||||
| Q2 2026 Operating margin | 35.5% | 36.5% | 37.5% | ||||
| Q2 2026 Net income per diluted share | 1.5 | 1.65 | 1.8 | ||||
| Q2 2026 Diluted share count | 1.25 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 5.40 Bil | 5.70 Bil | 6.00 Bil | 9.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.20 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Gross margin as a percentage of revenue | 48.0% | 49.0% | 50.0% | 0.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 48.4% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating income as a percentage of revenue | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.33 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Net income per diluted share | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.45 | 17.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.15 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Diluted share count | 1.26 Bil | ||||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 4.90 Bil | 5.20 Bil | 5.50 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Gross margin as a percentage of revenue | 47.4% | 48.4% | 49.4% | ||||
| Q2 2026 Operating income as a percentage of revenue | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.34 | ||||
| Q2 2026 Net income per diluted share | 1.05 | 1.15 | 1.25 | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/14/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talwalkar, Abhijit Y | Direct | Sell | 7142026 | 335.00 | 18,282 | 6,124,470 | 29,192,570 | Form | |
| 2 | Archer, Timothy | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 390.01 | 30,000 | 11,700,300 | 419,637,500 | Form |
| 3 | Brandt, Eric | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 367.18 | 54,500 | 20,011,346 | 53,132,877 | Form | |
| 4 | Brandt, Eric | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 350.80 | 54,500 | 19,118,360 | 69,880,236 | Form | |
| 5 | Fernandes, Neil J | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 309.60 | 7,659 | 2,371,226 | 18,102,312 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talwalkar, Abhijit Y | Direct | Sell | 7142026 | 335.00 | 18,282 | 6,124,470 | 29,192,570 | Form | |
| 2 | Archer, Timothy | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 390.01 | 30,000 | 11,700,300 | 419,637,500 | Form |
| 3 | Brandt, Eric | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 367.18 | 54,500 | 20,011,346 | 53,132,877 | Form | |
| 4 | Brandt, Eric | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 350.80 | 54,500 | 19,118,360 | 69,880,236 | Form | |
| 5 | Fernandes, Neil J | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 309.60 | 7,659 | 2,371,226 | 18,102,312 | Form |
| 6 | Fernandes, Neil J | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 255.14 | 18,170 | 4,635,894 | 16,872,153 | Form |
| 7 | Harter, Ava | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 258.66 | 6,010 | 1,554,547 | 13,762,123 | Form |
| 8 | Harter, Ava | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 222.66 | 1,500 | 333,990 | 11,846,727 | Form |
| 9 | Bettinger, Douglas R | Chief Financial Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 224.03 | 50,057 | 11,214,270 | 242,334,371 | Form |
| 10 | Bettinger, Douglas R | Chief Financial Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 230.22 | 40,329 | 9,284,542 | 242,654,643 | Form |
| 11 | Harter, Ava | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 232.50 | 4,000 | 930,000 | 12,719,018 | Form |
| 12 | Brandt, Eric | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 225.60 | 35,000 | 7,896,150 | 57,236,935 | Form | |
| 13 | Archer, Timothy | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 163.86 | 163,300 | 26,758,338 | 152,784,539 | Form |
| 14 | Bettinger, Douglas R | Chief Financial Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 150.60 | 40,080 | 6,036,048 | 148,677,892 | Form |
| 15 | Mayer, Bethany | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 159.52 | 30 | 4,786 | 519,557 | Form | |
| 16 | Mayer, Bethany | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 159.99 | 1,298 | 207,667 | 264,303 | Form | |
| 17 | Harter, Ava | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 157.47 | 9,010 | 1,418,775 | 8,941,973 | Form |
| 18 | Vahedi, Vahid | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 138.90 | 52,190 | 7,249,191 | 34,870,428 | Form |
| 19 | Harter, Ava | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Buy | 8062025 | 63.66 | 9 | 602 | 4,141,494 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 26, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oaktop Capital Management Ii, L.P. | $480.6 Mil | 35.9% | 14 | TRIM -5.9% | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $102.2 Mil | 23.1% | 6 | Hold | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $275.7 Mil | 13.1% | 26 | TRIM -9.3% | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $34.1 Mil | 12.7% | 16 | TRIM -20.5% | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $174.3 Mil | 12.6% | 29 | ADD +8.8% | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $228.8 Mil | 11.8% | 21 | TRIM -17.2% | 13F |
| Maplelane Capital, LLC | $132.7 Mil | 11.1% | 103 | New | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $104.5 Mil | 10.2% | 21 | TRIM -14.6% | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $23.2 Mil | 6.1% | 42 | TRIM -6.9% | 13F |
| M & L Capital Management Ltd | $16.7 Mil | 4.1% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $14.3 Mil | 3.6% | 31 | TRIM -23.6% | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $78.0 Mil | 3.4% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $24.7 Mil | 3.3% | 23 | TRIM -53.7% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $29.9 Mil | 3.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | TRIM -24.9% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $109.7 Mil | 2.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Capco Asset Management, LLC | $9.9 Mil | 2.7% | 27 | TRIM -68.9% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $204.7 Mil | 2.6% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Ravenswood Partners LP | $6.6 Mil | 2.4% | 35 | TRIM -46.2% | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $8.1 Mil | 2.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $81.7 Mil | 1.4% | 31 | TRIM -10.0% | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $8.5 Mil | 1.3% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $16.0 Mil | 0.8% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Black Creek Investment Management Inc. | $9.9 Mil | 0.5% | 25 | TRIM -40.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $204.7 Mil | 2.6% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Maplelane Capital, LLC | $132.7 Mil | 11.1% | 103 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $109.7 Mil | 2.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $78.0 Mil | 3.4% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $29.9 Mil | 3.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| M & L Capital Management Ltd | $16.7 Mil | 4.1% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $16.0 Mil | 0.8% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $8.1 Mil | 2.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $174.3 Mil | 12.6% | 29 | ADD +8.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $32.6 Mil | 2.9% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| MIG Capital, LLC | $7.1 Mil | 1.2% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Capco Asset Management, LLC | $9.9 Mil | 2.7% | 27 | TRIM -68.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $24.7 Mil | 3.3% | 23 | TRIM -53.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Ravenswood Partners LP | $6.6 Mil | 2.4% | 35 | TRIM -46.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Black Creek Investment Management Inc. | $9.9 Mil | 0.5% | 25 | TRIM -40.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | TRIM -24.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $14.3 Mil | 3.6% | 31 | TRIM -23.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $34.1 Mil | 12.7% | 16 | TRIM -20.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $228.8 Mil | 11.8% | 21 | TRIM -17.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $104.5 Mil | 10.2% | 21 | TRIM -14.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $81.7 Mil | 1.4% | 31 | TRIM -10.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $275.7 Mil | 13.1% | 26 | TRIM -9.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $23.2 Mil | 6.1% | 42 | TRIM -6.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Oaktop Capital Management Ii, L.P. | $480.6 Mil | 35.9% | 14 | TRIM -5.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oaktop Capital Management Ii, L.P. | $480.6 Mil | 35.9% | 14 | TRIM -5.9% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $275.7 Mil | 13.1% | 26 | TRIM -9.3% | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $228.8 Mil | 11.8% | 21 | TRIM -17.2% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $204.7 Mil | 2.6% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $174.3 Mil | 12.6% | 29 | ADD +8.8% | 13F |
| Maplelane Capital, LLC | $132.7 Mil | 11.1% | 103 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $109.7 Mil | 2.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $104.5 Mil | 10.2% | 21 | TRIM -14.6% | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $102.2 Mil | 23.1% | 6 | Hold | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $81.7 Mil | 1.4% | 31 | TRIM -10.0% | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $78.0 Mil | 3.4% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $34.1 Mil | 12.7% | 16 | TRIM -20.5% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $29.9 Mil | 3.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $24.7 Mil | 3.3% | 23 | TRIM -53.7% | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $23.2 Mil | 6.1% | 42 | TRIM -6.9% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | TRIM -24.9% | 13F |
| M & L Capital Management Ltd | $16.7 Mil | 4.1% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $16.0 Mil | 0.8% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $14.3 Mil | 3.6% | 31 | TRIM -23.6% | 13F |
| Capco Asset Management, LLC | $9.9 Mil | 2.7% | 27 | TRIM -68.9% | 13F |
| Black Creek Investment Management Inc. | $9.9 Mil | 0.5% | 25 | TRIM -40.1% | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $8.5 Mil | 1.3% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $8.1 Mil | 2.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Ravenswood Partners LP | $6.6 Mil | 2.4% | 35 | TRIM -46.2% | 13F |
LRCX Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high as Lam Research is capitalizing on a structural shift in semiconductor manufacturing. The company's addressable market is expanding due to AI-driven chip complexity, confirmed by a raised 2026 industry spending forecast to $140 billion. Specific competitive wins and a record services business signal technology leadership and durable growth into 2027.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Capital Equipment Sales(Total Industry Wafer Fab Equipment Spend) x (LRCX Served Available Market %) x (LRCX Market Share %) Mix shift towards more advanced technology nodes (e.g., Gate-All-Around) which require higher deposition and etch intensity, driving demand for Lam's most sophisticated and valuable tools.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests AI-driven chip complexity is structurally increasing demand for Lam's core technology, creating a multi-year outperformance opportunity.
- Industry spending (WFE) forecast for 2026 raised to $140 billion, with an upward bias.
- Latest-quarter revenue re-accelerated to 23.8% year-over-year growth.
- Guidance for the next quarter points to record revenue of $6.6 billion.
- Management sees a setup for another year of compelling growth in 2027.
- Services (CSBG) revenue hit a record $2.1 billion in the March quarter.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that the current boom is a typical industry cycle peak, exacerbated by U.S. export controls that are actively shrinking the company's business in China, which was less than 30% of revenue in fiscal 2025.
- The semiconductor equipment industry is historically characterized by rapid changes in demand.
- Management expects China to fall to less than 30% of revenue in calendar 2026.
- The stock has returned -17.0% over the last month, showing high sensitivity.
- Customer concentration is high, with Samsung and TSMC as major clients.
- U.S. export controls provide an advantage to international competitors.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Year-Over-Year Revenue Growth | 23.8% year-over-year growth for the quarter ended 6/30/2026 - Accelerating | After decelerating for one quarter, the year-over-year revenue growth rate has re-accelerated in the most recently reported period. This indicates strengthening demand, which management attributes to an accelerating AI-driven environment and higher spending across memory and non-memory segments. |
| Customer Support Business Group (CSBG) Revenue | $2.1 billion for the quarter ended 3/29/2026 (note: this is the latest available data, one quarter prior to the overall revenue data) - Accelerating | The CSBG services business has shown consistent and strong sequential growth over the last three reported quarters, from $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion to a record $2.1 billion. Management attributes the strength to a large and expanding installed base and strong demand across spares, upgrades, and services. |
| Installed Base (Chambers) | Over 100,000 (Calendar Year 2025) | Represents the total population of Lam equipment in the field, which is the primary driver for the Customer Support Business Group's revenue from spares, services, and upgrades. |
| Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) Spend Outlook | $140 billion with a bias to the upside (Calendar Year 2026) | Market rewards The outlook was raised from a prior view of $135 billion, signaling accelerating industry demand.. This is the company's forecast for the total addressable market for semiconductor equipment spending, a key indicator of overall industry demand and Lam's top-line potential. |
AI Supercycle vs. Cyclical Peak
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe AI-driven chip complexity creates a durable, multi-year growth cycle, allowing Lam to outgrow the market as its served available market expands to over mid-30% of industry spending.
CORE TENSION
Can the structural tailwind from AI, driving a $140B+ WFE market, overcome the historical cyclicality and the material headwind from declining China revenue?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management's decision to raise the 2026 WFE forecast and signal a strong 2027 outlook suggests accelerating, not peaking, demand.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a classic cyclical stock at a peak after a 222% run, with a material China headwind and extreme volatility suggesting the market is braced for a downturn.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | June Quarter Earnings Call Watch: Company will host its quarterly financial conference call and webcast for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. |
10/20/2026 | China Revenue Decline Accelerates Watch: Guidance for the December quarter and management commentary on the magnitude and expected duration of China weakness. |
10/20/2026 | Heightened Market Volatility Watch: The stock's price reaction following the October earnings release to see if high implied volatility translates into an outsized move. |
10/20/2026 | Next Earnings Report Watch: Company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
10/26/2026 - 11/12/2026 | Negative Peer Read-Through Watch: Revenue growth and forward guidance from AMAT, KLAC, and other peers during their earnings reports. |
10/27/2026 | Peer KLA Earnings Watch: Peer KLA (KLAC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/28/2026 | Peer Entegris Earnings Watch: Peer Entegris (ENTG) is scheduled to report earnings. |
second half of the year | Malaysia Facility Ramp Watch: A second manufacturing facility in Malaysia is expected to come online. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-11 | Valuation Concerns Raised Details: A Seeking Alpha article highlighted the stock's surge of over 120% in seven months and a forward P/E of 62x, suggesting much of the upside may be priced in. | -6.6% $353.17 -> $329.92 |
2026-05-21 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share of common stock, payable on July 8, 2026. | +4.5% $291.88 -> $305.14 |
2026-05-20 | New Austria Packaging Lab Details: Opened a new research lab in Salzburg, Austria, to advance chip packaging technology, aiming to increase chip density and cut costs amid surging AI demand. | +10.6% $273.19 -> $302.03 |
2026-04-22 | Record Results, Raised Outlook Details: Reported record Q3 results with revenue up 23.8% year-over-year and raised its 2026 WFE outlook to $140 billion, citing accelerating AI-driven demand. The stock reaction was flat. | +0.1% $258.19 -> $258.38 |
2026-02-17 | Boise Office Expansion Details: The company opened a new office in Boise, Idaho, to support projected growth in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, building on three decades of presence in the city. | +1.9% $235.08 -> $239.63 |
2026-01-28 | Positive 2026 WFE Outlook Details: Management provided an initial 2026 Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) outlook in the $135 billion range, noting the year would be second-half weighted. The stock reacted positively, up 4.0% post-earnings. | +4.1% $238.01 -> $247.70 |
Strong Analyst Commentary Details: Multiple articles in March highlighted Lam Research as a top beneficiary of the WFE cycle, citing logic share gains, a major memory capex upcycle, and improved operational efficiency. | - |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: LRCX trades at roughly 87% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (5.9x the market), around the 96th percentile of its own trailing year. A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AMAT - Applied Materials, Inc.
Broader Market ExposureApplied Materials offers greater scale with 1.3 times Lam's revenue and a more diversified product portfolio across the semiconductor manufacturing process, providing broader exposure to industry capital spending.
KLAC - KLA
Process Control SpecialistKLA specializes in process control and yield management, a different and essential part of the manufacturing ecosystem. This offers exposure to the increasing need for precision as chip complexity grows, without direct competition in deposition and etch.
A 'picks-and-shovels' arms dealer for the AI revolution, profiting directly from the escalating complexity and 3D-scaling of next-generation semiconductors.
Lam Research is a primary beneficiary of the semiconductor industry's shift to more complex chip architectures like Gate-All-Around and 3D NAND. These new designs require significantly more deposition and etch steps, directly increasing Lam's addressable market. The current AI-driven demand cycle is accelerating these technology transitions, creating a multi-year outperformance setup for the company as it captures a larger share of a growing Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) pie.
Major chipmakers announcing accelerated roadmaps for 3D NAND, Gate-All-Around, or advanced packaging; upward revisions to industry WFE forecasts.
A technological breakthrough that significantly reduces the number of deposition or etch steps needed for advanced chips; a severe, prolonged downturn in semiconductor capital spending.
Short-term quarterly fluctuations in regional revenue mix, such as shifts in spending from China.
Repricing Catalyst
The accelerating AI-driven demand for advanced semiconductors, which has led management to raise its 2026 WFE forecast and signal a strong growth outlook into 2027, expanding the company's served available market.
Lam Research — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Resources |
| SEMI |
| Semiconductor Digest |
| Semiconductor Today |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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