Lam Research (LRCX)
Market Price (4/29/2026): $251.43 | Market Cap: $314.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Lam Research (LRCX)
Market Price (4/29/2026): $251.43Market Cap: $314.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 7.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 254% Key risksLRCX key risks include [1] extreme geopolitical vulnerability due to its heavy revenue concentration in Asia (87.9%) and specifically China (42.2%), Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 7.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 254% |
| Key risksLRCX key risks include [1] extreme geopolitical vulnerability due to its heavy revenue concentration in Asia (87.9%) and specifically China (42.2%), Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Earnings Performance and Upbeat Guidance. Lam Research consistently exceeded analyst expectations for revenue and earnings per share (EPS) and provided an optimistic outlook. In Q1 CY2026, the company reported revenue of $5.84 billion, surpassing analyst estimates by 1.7%, and an adjusted EPS of $1.47, beating estimates by 7.9%. This followed a strong Q4 2025 where revenue reached $5.34 billion and non-GAAP EPS was $1.27, exceeding expectations. Furthermore, the company issued robust Q2 CY2026 revenue guidance of $6.6 billion, 9.4% above analyst forecasts, underscoring strong financial health and operational efficiency.
2. Accelerating AI-Driven Demand. A core reason for the stock's positive trend is the robust demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, largely driven by the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Lam Research's strategic investments in advanced packaging, NAND, and DRAM technologies, which are critical components for AI workloads and data centers, significantly contributed to its revenue and operating margin expansion. The company's advanced packaging business is specifically projected to grow 40% in calendar year 2026 due to AI needs.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.9% change in LRCX stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 170.98 | 251.23 | 46.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,592 | 21,682 | 10.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.7% | 30.9% | 4.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.2 | 46.8 | 25.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,264 | 1,250 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 46.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 64.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 9.8% | 69.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 88.2% change in LRCX stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.52 | 251.23 | 88.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,436 | 21,682 | 17.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.1% | 30.9% | 6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.8 | 46.8 | 47.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,274 | 1,250 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 88.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 88.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 68.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 12.3% | 73.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 248.1% change in LRCX stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 116.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 72.17 | 251.23 | 248.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,209 | 21,682 | 33.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.5% | 30.9% | 16.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.6 | 46.8 | 116.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,287 | 1,250 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 248.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 248.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 71.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 53.8% | 78.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 387.8% change in LRCX stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 242.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.50 | 251.23 | 387.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,048 | 21,682 | 13.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.9% | 30.9% | 15.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.7 | 46.8 | 242.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,360 | 1,250 | 8.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 387.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 387.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 67.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 113.4% | 76.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LRCX Return | 54% | -41% | 89% | -7% | 139% | 52% | 481% |
| Peers Return | 50% | -40% | 51% | 2% | 50% | 76% | 269% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 91% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LRCX Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 37% | 60% | 48% | 60% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LRCX Max Drawdown | 0% | -56% | -1% | -10% | -18% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -53% | -7% | -10% | -31% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMAT, KLAC, TER, ENTG, MKSI. See LRCX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LRCX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 423 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 299.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,011 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMAT, KLAC, TER, ENTG, MKSI
In The Past
Lam Research's stock fell -56.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -56.8% loss requires a 131.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Lam Research (LRCX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Think of them as the General Electric for the semiconductor industry, providing the specialized equipment that builds computer chips.
They are similar to Applied Materials (AMAT), making the critical machines used to manufacture computer chips.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- ALTUS systems: Equipment used for depositing conformal films, particularly for tungsten metallization applications.
- SABRE products: Electrochemical deposition tools designed for copper interconnect transition and copper damascene manufacturing.
- SOLA products: Ultraviolet thermal processing equipment used for film treatments in semiconductor fabrication.
- VECTOR products: Plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and atomic layer deposition (ALD) equipment.
- SPEED products: High-density plasma chemical vapor deposition tools used for gapfill applications.
- Striker products: Single-wafer atomic layer deposition equipment providing dielectric film solutions.
- Flex: Equipment specifically designed for dielectric etch applications.
- Kiyo: Equipment used for conductor etch applications.
- Syndion: Equipment for through-silicon via (TSV) etch applications.
- Versys metal products: Equipment developed for metal etch processes.
- Coronus products: Bevel clean products intended to enhance die yield.
- Wafer Cleaning Products (e.g., Da Vinci, DV-Prime, EOS, SP series): A range of products designed to address various wafer cleaning applications.
- Metryx systems: Mass metrology systems used for high-precision in-line mass measurement in semiconductor wafer manufacturing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) sells specialized semiconductor processing equipment primarily to companies involved in the fabrication of integrated circuits. Its major customers are the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers and foundries, who require Lam Research's advanced tools for various stages of chip production, including deposition, etch, and cleaning.
Based on the nature of Lam Research's business and the semiconductor industry landscape, its major customers include:
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - TSM
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. - 005930 (KRX)
- Intel Corporation - INTC
- Micron Technology, Inc. - MU
- SK Hynix Inc. - 000660 (KRX)
- GlobalFoundries Inc. - GFS
AI Analysis | Feedback
The major suppliers for Lam Research (LRCX) are:
- Ultra Clean Holdings (UCT)
- MKS Instruments (MKSI)
- Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS)
- VAT Group AG (VACN.SW)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Timothy M. Archer
President and Chief Executive Officer
Timothy M. Archer became President and Chief Executive Officer of Lam Research in December 2018. He joined Lam Research in 2012 following the company's acquisition of Novellus Systems, Inc., where he had an 18-year tenure, most recently serving as Chief Operating Officer. At Novellus, he also held various technology development and leadership roles, including executive vice president of the PECVD and Electrofill Business Units and vice president of Worldwide Sales, Marketing, and Customer Satisfaction. Archer began his career at Tektronix, Inc. in 1989, focusing on processes for high-speed bipolar integrated circuits.
Douglas R. Bettinger
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Douglas R. Bettinger serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Lam Research, a position he has held since joining the company in 2013. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing finance, tax, treasury, investor relations, and corporate analytics. Prior to joining Lam Research, Bettinger was the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Avago Technologies Ltd. (now Broadcom). He also held various executive finance positions with Xilinx, Inc., 24/7 Customer (a privately-held company where he served as CFO), and Intel Corp.
Richard A. Gottscho
Executive Vice President and Strategic Advisor to the CEO – Innovation Ecosystem
Richard A. Gottscho is the Executive Vice President and Strategic Advisor to the CEO – Innovation Ecosystem at Lam Research, where he focuses on developing strategies and collaborations to accelerate innovation in the semiconductor industry. He joined Lam Research in January 1996. From 2017 to 2023, Gottscho served as Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, leading initiatives in lithography and process engineering. Before that, from 2010 to 2017, he was Executive Vice President of Lam’s Global Products Group, overseeing the company's Deposition, Etch, and Clean businesses. Prior to his tenure at Lam, he spent 15 years at Bell Laboratories, where he headed research departments in electronics materials, electronics packaging, and flat panel displays.
Sesha Varadarajan
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Sesha Varadarajan was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Lam Research effective March 6, 2026. In this role, he leads the Global Product Groups, the Customer Support Business Group (CSBG), Corporate Strategy, Global Trade and Government Affairs, and Lam India. He joined Lam Research in 2012 following the acquisition of Novellus, where he had held several leadership roles, including general manager of the PECVD and Electrofill Business Units. Varadarajan holds over 170 global patents in semiconductor wafer processing and equipment design.
Vahid Vahedi
Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer
Vahid Vahedi serves as Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer at Lam Research, a role he assumed in February 2023. He is responsible for driving innovation breakthroughs for next-generation semiconductors and leading the company's sustainability programs. Vahedi joined Lam Research in 1995. Prior to his current role, he was the senior vice president and general manager of Lam's Etch Business Unit, where he oversaw the development of dielectric etch, conductor, and 3DIC etch innovations and launched the Sense.i® etch platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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- Cyclical Nature of the Semiconductor Industry: Lam Research's business is highly dependent on the capital expenditures of semiconductor manufacturers, making it vulnerable to the inherent cyclicality and volatility of the semiconductor industry. Downturns in chip demand or reductions in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending by its customers directly and significantly impact the company's revenue and profitability.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Export Controls: With significant sales to the semiconductor industry in key global regions, including China, Taiwan, Korea, and other international markets, Lam Research is exposed to risks from geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and government-imposed export controls. Such factors can disrupt supply chains, restrict technology sales, and impede market access, thereby affecting its operational capabilities and financial performance.
- Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Change: The semiconductor equipment market is characterized by intense competition and rapid technological advancements. Lam Research must continually invest heavily in research and development to innovate and deliver cutting-edge solutions that meet the evolving demands of chip fabrication. Failure to keep pace with technological changes or to outperform competitors in product development could lead to a loss of market share and reduced profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) operates in several key addressable markets within the semiconductor processing equipment industry. Here are the estimated market sizes for their main product and service categories:
- Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE): The global wafer fabrication equipment market, which encompasses deposition, etch, and clean equipment that Lam Research provides, was valued at approximately USD 115.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 135.2 billion in 2027. Another projection estimated the global WFE market to be around USD 100 billion in calendar year 2025.
- Deposition Equipment (CVD and ALD): Lam Research offers various deposition products, including Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) and Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) systems. The global semiconductor Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) equipment market size was estimated at USD 16.71 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 21.96 billion by 2031. Another report indicated the global semiconductor CVD equipment market size was USD 16.8 billion in 2024, expected to increase to USD 23.6 billion by 2030.
- Etch Equipment: Lam Research is a leading provider of etch equipment for various applications. The global semiconductor etch equipment market size is estimated at USD 30.16 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 56.1 billion by 2034.
- Wafer Cleaning Equipment: The company offers products for wafer cleaning applications. The global semiconductor wafer cleaning equipment market size was valued at USD 9.08 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 16.75 billion by 2032.
- Metrology and Inspection Equipment: Lam Research provides Metryx mass metrology systems. The global semiconductor metrology and inspection equipment market size was valued at USD 14.92 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 27.56 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is expected to experience significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors within the semiconductor industry. The anticipated drivers of future revenue growth include:- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Infrastructure Buildout: The explosive growth in artificial intelligence chip manufacturing is a major catalyst for Lam Research. The company projects that AI spending will equate to approximately $240 billion in Worldwide Foundry Equipment (WFE) spending, translating to substantial demand for advanced manufacturing equipment. Analysts estimate that every $100 billion of AI data center spending generates about $8 billion in WFE opportunity, creating billions in potential served available market expansion for Lam Research. This demand particularly drives investments in advanced logic chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
- Advanced Packaging and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM): Advanced packaging is crucial for the transition to HBM4 and 4E technologies, involving the stacking of up to 16 layers. Lam Research anticipates its overall advanced packaging business to grow by over 40% in 2026, surpassing the general WFE growth in this segment. The company is well-positioned due to its market leadership in electroplating and through-silicon via (TSV) etch, which are critical for HBM manufacturing.
- NAND Technology Transitions and Upgrades: The 3D NAND flash memory segment offers considerable growth opportunities through 2026 and beyond, primarily due to manufacturers transitioning to higher-layer-count 3D NAND architectures (e.g., from 200+ layers towards 300+ layers). This requires equipment with greater precision and capability, with Lam Research expecting NAND revenue to increase by $1.5 billion year-over-year. There is also an estimated $40 billion in WFE conversion spending projected for NAND upgrades over the next several years.
- Growth in Foundry and Logic at Leading-Edge Nodes: Strong growth is expected in the foundry and logic segments, fueled by the increasing demand for AI compute die. Lam Research is strategically focused on "billion dollar plus technology inflections" such as gate-all-around (GAA) structures and backside power distribution, which are critical advancements in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing. The company aims to expand its share of WFE as customers migrate to these advanced nodes.
- Expansion of Customer Support Business Group (CSBG) and Advanced Services: The Customer Support Business Group, which includes spares, upgrades, and advanced services, is a key component of Lam's growth strategy. The company's installed base of chambers has grown to 102,000, up from 96,000 in the prior year, and it expects CSBG revenue to grow faster than its installed base. This growth is driven by customers seeking to upgrade and repurpose existing tools to enhance productivity and optimize capital spending.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Lam Research spent $3.42 billion on share repurchases in fiscal year 2025.
- In fiscal year 2025, the company returned $4.5 billion to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends.
- As of the quarter ended June 29, 2025, Lam Research had an $8.8 billion remaining share repurchase authorization.
Share Issuance
- Lam Research has demonstrated a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -3.6% for average shares diluted over the last 10 years, indicating a net reduction in outstanding shares.
- The company's dilution risk score was assessed as low (90/100) as of March 14, 2026.
- Lam Research completed a ten-for-one stock split in October 2024.
Inbound Investments
No significant inbound investments made in Lam Research by third parties were readily available in the provided information for the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- Lam Research's growth strategy includes expanding its served addressable market through multi-product solutions and selective acquisitions or joint developments.
- In March 2026, Lam Research announced a collaboration with IBM to advance sub-1nm logic scaling, indicating strategic R&D investment.
Capital Expenditures
- Lam Research deploys cash for capital expenditures as part of its financial operations.
- The company invests approximately $2.5 billion annually in research and development.
- Lam Research is actively expanding its manufacturing footprint, particularly in Asia, with Malaysia housing its largest factory.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | ALKT | Alkami Technology | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DLB | Dolby Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PTC | PTC | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | LRCX | Lam Research | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 44.5% | 44.5% | -5.8% |
| 02282025 | LRCX | Lam Research | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 31.2% | 207.6% | -22.8% |
| 12312022 | LRCX | Lam Research | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.9% | 88.6% | -1.4% |
| 04302022 | LRCX | Lam Research | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.3% | 14.2% | -31.9% |
| 09302018 | LRCX | Lam Research | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.5% | 56.0% | -18.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 324.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 148.5 |
| Rev LTM | 8,337 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,141 |
| FCF LTM | 2,437 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,043 |
| CFO LTM | 2,731 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,310 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 148.5 |
| P/S | 12.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 39.1 |
| P/EBIT | 42.0 |
| P/E | 56.6 |
| P/CFO | 39.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 22.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 64.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 208.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 283.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 61.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 179.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 196.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $251.23 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 315.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $236.06 | $171.63 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 6.4% | 46.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 60.2% | 48.6% |
| Downside Capture | 1.78 | 1.22 |
| Upside Capture | 261.97 | 299.59 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 68.8% | 65.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.32 | 3.04 | 3.06 | 3.01 | 2.03 | 2.00 |
| Up Beta | 3.90 | 4.09 | 2.95 | 2.76 | 1.78 | 1.82 |
| Down Beta | 5.16 | 3.02 | 2.33 | 2.59 | 1.97 | 1.82 |
| Up Capture | 316% | 348% | 622% | 779% | 799% | 3267% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 71 | 151 | 401 |
| Down Capture | 207% | 235% | 209% | 197% | 143% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 30 | 55 | 101 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LRCX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 256.1% | 48.6% | 2.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 52.6% | 20.4% | 1.96 | 71.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.92 | 64.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.6% | 27.2% | 1.18 | 17.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.9% | 18.0% | 1.95 | -11.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 13.4% | 0.75 | 19.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 42.1% | -0.39 | 33.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LRCX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 32.8% | 45.7% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.2% | 24.8% | 0.66 | 77.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 70.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 14.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.8% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 12.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 37.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 28.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LRCX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 42.7% | 44.3% | 0.96 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.0% | 24.4% | 0.86 | 76.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 70.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 10.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 20.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 42.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 19.4% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/22/2026 | -2.6% | ||
| 1/28/2026 | 3.6% | -12.4% | -2.4% |
| 10/22/2025 | 4.5% | 13.7% | -1.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | -4.3% | -3.2% | 5.0% |
| 4/23/2025 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 23.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 7.4% | 9.0% | 2.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.1% | 4.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.9% | -18.8% | -13.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 16.8% | 39.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.9% | -18.8% | -13.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/24/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 6.20 Bil | 6.60 Bil | 7.00 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | 35.5% | 36.5% | 37.5% | ||||
| Q2 2026 EPS | 1.5 | 1.65 | 1.8 | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 5.40 Bil | 5.70 Bil | 6.00 Bil | 9.6% | Higher New | Actual: 5.20 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Gross margin as a percentage of revenue | 48.0% | 49.0% | 50.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | Higher New | Actual: 48.4% for Q2 2026 |
| Q3 2026 Operating income as a percentage of revenue | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 3.2% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 0.33 for Q2 2026 |
| Q3 2026 Net income per diluted share | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.45 | 17.4% | Higher New | Actual: 1.15 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Diluted share count | 1.26 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harter, Ava | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 258.66 | 6,010 | 1,554,547 | 13,762,123 | Form |
| 2 | Harter, Ava | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 222.66 | 1,500 | 333,990 | 11,846,727 | Form |
| 3 | Bettinger, Douglas R | Chief Financial Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 224.03 | 50,057 | 11,214,270 | 242,334,371 | Form |
| 4 | Bettinger, Douglas R | Chief Financial Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 230.22 | 40,329 | 9,284,542 | 242,654,643 | Form |
| 5 | Harter, Ava | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 232.50 | 4,000 | 930,000 | 12,719,018 | Form |
LRCX Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The score reflects a high-quality operator benefiting from a powerful secular AI tailwind, justifying its premium valuation. However, the current high multiple limits the upside/downside asymmetry. The position is a 'hold' or 'market-weight' due to the balanced risk/reward profile, where the strong fundamental momentum is offset by significant cyclical and geopolitical risks that are characteristic of the industry.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: 'Secular Cyclical' (Primary) / Type B: 'Quality Compounder' (Secondary)Primary (70%): The business is directly tied to semiconductor capital expenditure, which is inherently cyclical. However, it's a 'Secular Cyclical' because it benefits from long-term, structural growth drivers like AI. Secondary (30%): The company has a dominant market position, high and defensible margins, and strong capital returns, which are hallmarks of a 'Quality Compounder'.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The semiconductor industry's transition to new, complex 3D chip architectures like Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI applications structurally increases the number of etch and deposition steps required per wafer. This trend expands Lam's serviceable addressable market (SAM) at a faster rate than the overall Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) market, as Lam dominates the critical etch segment.
- Structural Tailwind: Advanced packaging, a key driver for HBM, is projected to grow over 40% in 2026.
- Market Share: Lam holds a dominant ~45% market share in the critical Etch segment.
- Technology Inflection: Upcoming transitions to GAA and HBM structurally increase the number of etch and deposition steps, expanding Lam's serviceable market faster than the overall industry.
- Leading Indicator: Major customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron, SK Hynix) have announced capex increases for 2026, signaling strong forward demand.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the well-defined and quantified impact of U.S. government export restrictions on semiconductor equipment sales to China. While the market has largely priced in the existing rules, any further tightening or expansion of these regulations represents a significant, unquantified downside risk to revenue and earnings, as China has recently accounted for a large portion of sales.
- Quantified Impact: Management has disclosed an expected negative revenue impact of $2 billion to $2.5 billion annually from current U.S. export restrictions.
- Geographic Exposure: In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, China represented 43% of total revenue, though this is expected to fall.
- Escalation Risk: News reports from March 2026 indicate the U.S. government is drafting new, potentially more restrictive export controls for AI chips.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Systems Revenue YoY Growth | > 15% | This is the primary driver of the growth thesis. A slowdown below 15% would signal the AI-driven upcycle is maturing or Lam is losing share, challenging the premium valuation. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | ~49.0% | Management has guided for margin pressure. Holding margins near this level despite mix shifts and tariffs is critical to demonstrating pricing power and operational efficiency. |
| China Revenue % of Total | < 30% | Monitoring the managed reduction in China exposure. A faster-than-expected decline could indicate more severe restrictions, while a slower decline could present an upside surprise but also increased geopolitical risk. |
AI Supercycle vs. Geopolitical Headwinds
BULL VIEW
The structural shift to complex 3D chip architectures for AI creates a durable supercycle, expanding Lam's addressable market and justifying its premium valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating demand from AI, HBM, and GAA transitions overpower the material risk and revenue impact from escalating U.S. export controls on China?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Lam's Systems Revenue grew +27.9% YoY, while competitor Applied Materials' equivalent segment declined -8% YoY, showing significant market share gains driven by AI demand.
BEAR VIEW
Further tightening of U.S. export controls on China, a key market, will create an earnings hole larger than the market currently anticipates.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
April 22, 2026 (Today) | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Guidance for China Revenue % of Total. Watch for it to remain below the 30% baseline guided previously, indicating managed risk. |
Late July 2026 | Q4 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Systems Revenue YoY Growth. Must exceed the +27.9% baseline from Q2 to confirm the AI supercycle thesis is still accelerating. |
Anytime (Next 6 months) | Escalation of U.S. Export Controls on China Watch: U.S. Dept of Commerce (BIS) issues new 'Final Rule' restricting equipment for mature or 'foundational' semiconductor nodes. |
October 13-15, 2026 | Competitor Architectural Lock-Out at SEMICON West Watch: Competitor (AMAT/TEL) announces a breakthrough in selective etch or deposition technology positioned as superior for 2nm nodes or HBM4. |
Ongoing (Next 6 months) | Valuation Compression from Macro Shift Watch: 10-Year Treasury Yield breaks decisively above 4.5% due to persistent inflation, triggering a rotation out of high P/E stocks. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
9/8/2025 | Auditor Change Details: Lam Research changed its independent auditor from Ernst & Young to KPMG. The company stated there were no accounting disagreements, and the market reaction was muted. | Modest 2.06% gain $102.45 -> $104.56 |
10/23/2025 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Details: Company beat analyst expectations and provided a strong outlook, signaling robust demand from the AI and memory segments. Non-GAAP gross margin was a record 50.6%. | Surged +4.45% $140.84 -> $147.12 |
1/28/2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Report Details: Reported strong results and guidance. Systems Revenue grew 27.9% YoY to $3.36B. Customer Support Revenue accelerated, growing 13.5% YoY to $1.99B. | Flat (0.47%) $238.17 -> $239.29 |
3/4/2026 | Insider Sale Details: The CFO sold over $11.2 million worth of shares. The market reaction was positive, suggesting the news was not viewed as a signal of fundamental deterioration. | Rose significantly by 2.76% $217.01 -> $222.99 |
3/5/2026 | U.S. Export Control Headline Risk Details: News reports indicated the U.S. government was drafting new, potentially more restrictive export controls for AI chips, renewing investor concerns over the company's China revenue. | Fell notably by -3.73% $222.99 -> $214.68 |
4/15/2026 | Sector Sentiment Contagion Details: Stock fell following competitor ASML's update, which cited softer margin expectations and uncertainty around export controls, sparking negative sentiment across the chip-equipment sector. | Fell notably by -2.66% $272.41 -> $265.16 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.38x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. While fundamentals are perfect (Bullish sentiment, Valid Premium), the volatility profile caps position size to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
GOAI
SECTOROffers a different risk profile within the AI value chain, focusing on high-performance computing infrastructure rather than the cyclical semiconductor equipment market.
META
OTHERDirectly monetizes AI through its massive user base via ad targeting and new AI-native products, offering a less cyclical way to play the AI theme versus hardware.
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Repricing Catalyst
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External Quote Links
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