IO Biotech (IOBT)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $0.1999 | Market Cap: $13.4 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
IO Biotech (IOBT)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $0.1999Market Cap: $13.4 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -99% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.2 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 | |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -92 Mil | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -699% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 217% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -99% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.2 |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -92 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -699% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 217% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Failure to meet the primary endpoint in a pivotal Phase 3 trial led to significant investor disappointment.
In October and November 2025, IO Biotech announced that its Phase 3 trial (IOB-013/KN-D18) evaluating Cylembio plus pembrolizumab for first-line advanced melanoma narrowly missed its primary endpoint for statistical significance in progression-free survival (PFS), with a p-value of 0.0558 against a prespecified threshold of p≤0.045. While the trial showed a clinically relevant improvement in median PFS (19.4 months vs. 11.0 months), the failure to achieve statistical significance on this key endpoint cast doubt on the product's path to regulatory approval and significantly reduced its perceived probability of success (POS) for 1L melanoma from 50% to 30%.
2. The company's announcement of exploring strategic alternatives and implementing workforce reductions signaled financial distress.
On January 21, 2026, IO Biotech's stock plunged 46.5% after the company disclosed it was exploring strategic alternatives, including a merger, business combination, sale of assets, or potential liquidation and dissolution. This news was further compounded by the evaluation of workforce reductions and other cost-cutting measures. A corporate update on January 30, 2026, confirmed the engagement of a financial advisor and the implementation of a reduction in force, highlighting the company's precarious financial position.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -73.4% change in IOBT stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.72 | 0.19 | -73.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 67 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IOBT | -73.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 3.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.0% | -7.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -87.9% change in IOBT stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.58 | 0.19 | -87.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 67 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IOBT | -87.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | -0.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 9.5% | -2.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -79.7% change in IOBT stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.94 | 0.19 | -79.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 67 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IOBT | -79.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 3.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.9% | 2.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -92.5% change in IOBT stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.54 | 0.19 | -92.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 67 | -57.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IOBT | -92.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 7.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.3% | 6.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IOBT Return | -59% | -64% | -18% | -51% | -34% | -59% | -98% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -36% | 3% | -34% | -19% | 29% | -47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IOBT Win Rate | 0% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 37% | 45% | 42% | 47% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IOBT Max Drawdown | -59% | -65% | -63% | -64% | -61% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -56% | -38% | -40% | -54% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MRNA, IOVA, AGEN, NEO, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IOBT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1752.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to MRNA, IOVA, AGEN, NEO, REGN
In The Past
IO Biotech's stock fell -94.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -94.6% loss requires a 1752.1% gain to breakeven.
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About IO Biotech (IOBT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
An early-stage Merck or Bristol Myers Squibb focused on next-generation cancer immunotherapies.
Like Moderna or BioNTech, but developing platform-based cancer immunotherapies instead of vaccines.
A pioneering clinical-stage biotech, much like Genentech was, but specializing in therapies that awaken the immune system to fight cancer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- IO102-IO103: A lead product candidate designed to target immunosuppressive proteins like IDO and PD-L1 for the treatment of various cancers, currently in Phase 1 and Phase 2 clinical trials.
- IO112: A product candidate containing an Arginase 1-derived peptide designed to target T cells that recognize Arginase 1 epitopes for the treatment of cancers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
IO Biotech (IOBT) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. As described in the background, its product candidates, such as IO102-IO103 and IO112, are currently in various phases of clinical trials (Phase 1 and Phase 2). Companies at this stage are primarily focused on research, development, and clinical testing, and do not yet have commercialized products available for sale.Therefore, IO Biotech does not currently have major customers, either individuals or other companies, as its products are still under development and have not yet received regulatory approval for commercial sale.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 495 |
| Op Inc LTM | -90 |
| FCF LTM | -85 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -124 |
| CFO LTM | -85 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -120 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -58.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -111.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -83.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -79.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -83.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -97.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | -2.1 |
| P/E | -3.5 |
| P/CFO | -0.6 |
| Total Yield | -19.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -19.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -61.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -129.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $0.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/05/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -92.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $0.39 | $1.04 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -50.4% | -81.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 319.0% | 217.8% |
| Downside Capture | 551.79 | 18.59 |
| Upside Capture | -264.98 | -143.99 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.04 | -0.90 | 0.21 | -0.67 | 0.31 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | 3.80 | -5.03 | -4.39 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| Down Beta | -7.29 | -6.48 | -4.03 | 0.09 | 0.90 | 1.06 |
| Up Capture | 224% | -290% | -126% | -189% | -42% | -0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 27 | 53 | 105 | 318 |
| Down Capture | 13% | 206% | 275% | -201% | -41% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 66 | 130 | 394 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IOBT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOBT | -78.2% | 217.4% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.0% | 17.5% | 0.12 | 3.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 3.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | -3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 2.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | -1.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IOBT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOBT | -58.2% | 132.1% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.5% | 14.5% | 0.33 | 8.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 11.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 8.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 4.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IOBT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOBT | -35.4% | 132.1% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.1% | 16.5% | 0.50 | 8.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 11.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 8.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 4.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/14/2025 | 1.7% | -9.2% | -15.2% |
| 8/11/2025 | -42.0% | 19.3% | -0.6% |
| 5/14/2025 | -2.0% | 3.0% | 50.0% |
| 3/4/2025 | -1.6% | -3.5% | 17.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -11.7% | -16.7% | -19.6% |
| 8/13/2024 | 17.7% | 12.3% | -37.3% |
| 5/14/2024 | 2.1% | -2.1% | -9.2% |
| 3/5/2024 | 2.5% | 6.8% | 1.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 9.7% | 22.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -9.2% | -19.6% |
| Max Positive | 17.7% | 55.3% | 50.0% |
| Max Negative | -42.0% | -20.7% | -37.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/31/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter, Heidi | Direct | Buy | 6022025 | 1.39 | 15,000 | 20,884 | 20,884 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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