Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.7
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -92 Mil
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -204%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 155%
5   Key risks
IOBT key risks include [1] the pivotal Phase 3 trial failure of its lead candidate, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149%
3 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.7
4 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -92 Mil
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -204%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 155%
8 Key risks
IOBT key risks include [1] the pivotal Phase 3 trial failure of its lead candidate, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

IOBT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -57.9% movement in IO Biotech (IOBT) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025:

1. Phase 3 Trial Narrowly Missed Statistical Significance: IO Biotech announced that its lead experimental cancer vaccine, Cylembio (IO102-IO103), in combination with pembrolizumab, narrowly missed achieving statistical significance on the primary endpoint of progression-free survival (PFS) in its pivotal Phase 3 trial for advanced melanoma. While clinical improvement was observed, the failure to meet statistical significance on this key endpoint was a significant setback for the potential regulatory approval of the treatment.

2. FDA Recommended Against Biologics License Application (BLA) Submission: Following the Phase 3 trial results, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) formally recommended against submitting a Biologics License Application (BLA) for Cylembio based on the existing clinical trial data. This recommendation was a major blow, causing the stock to plummet significantly, with reports indicating a 74.3% drop on September 29, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
IOBT Return-64%-18%-51%-32%
Peers Return119%16%-36%3%-34%-18%-9%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IOBT Win Rate0%25%42%42%42% 
Peers Win Rate57%52%37%45%42%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IOBT Max Drawdown-65%-63%-64%-61% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-27%-56%-38%-40%-54% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MRNA, IOVA, AGEN, NEO, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventIOBTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1752.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

IO Biotech's stock fell -94.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -94.6% loss requires a 1752.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About IO Biotech (IOBT)

Better Bets than IO Biotech (IOBT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to IOBT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for IO Biotech

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IOBTMRNAIOVAAGENNEOREGNMedian
NameIO Biote.Moderna Iovance .Agenus NeoGenom.Regenero. 
Mkt Price0.6633.802.483.4411.83767.967.63
Mkt Cap0.013.20.90.11.579.61.2
Rev LTM02,20225010770914,248480
Op Inc LTM-92-3,463-411-63-923,807-92
FCF LTM-81-2,663-352-89-173,881-85
FCF 3Y Avg-76-3,092-368-172-293,853-124
CFO LTM-81-1,978-323-89145,071-85
CFO 3Y Avg-76-2,421-347-16324,848-120

Growth & Margins

IOBTMRNAIOVAAGENNEOREGNMedian
NameIO Biote.Moderna Iovance .Agenus NeoGenom.Regenero. 
Rev Chg LTM--56.4%175.6%-33.4%10.1%2.9%2.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--52.3%-12.6%12.6%1.4%7.0%
Rev Chg Q--46.0%15.2%20.4%11.9%0.9%11.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--27.9%3.7%5.0%2.9%0.2%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM--157.3%-164.3%-58.9%-13.0%26.7%-58.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--79.9%-21,256.3%-111.1%-14.6%30.0%-79.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--50.1%5.8%31.0%0.4%-0.9%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM--89.8%-129.0%-83.5%1.9%35.6%-83.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--58.7%-16,938.4%-139.5%0.1%35.4%-58.7%
FCF/Rev LTM--120.9%-140.5%-83.6%-2.4%27.2%-83.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--76.1%-17,973.0%-147.7%-4.8%28.2%-76.1%

Valuation

IOBTMRNAIOVAAGENNEOREGNMedian
NameIO Biote.Moderna Iovance .Agenus NeoGenom.Regenero. 
Mkt Cap0.013.20.90.11.579.61.2
P/S-6.03.61.02.15.63.6
P/EBIT-0.5-4.2-2.25.3-13.915.3-1.3
P/E-0.5-4.2-2.3-3.1-13.417.4-2.7
P/CFO-0.5-6.7-2.8-1.2111.015.7-0.9
Total Yield-200.0%-23.6%-44.0%-32.1%-7.5%6.1%-27.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-181.7%-16.2%-30.5%-92.4%-2.0%4.9%-23.3%
D/E0.40.10.10.40.30.00.2
Net D/E-0.3-0.3-0.30.40.2-0.1-0.2

Returns

IOBTMRNAIOVAAGENNEOREGNMedian
NameIO Biote.Moderna Iovance .Agenus NeoGenom.Regenero. 
1M Rtn-16.4%42.5%10.7%-18.5%3.0%1.6%2.3%
3M Rtn-57.4%33.9%21.0%-21.5%38.8%29.9%25.4%
6M Rtn-48.9%30.5%25.3%-28.0%69.0%51.1%27.9%
12M Rtn-13.8%-14.2%-66.4%21.6%-27.9%10.0%-14.0%
3Y Rtn-74.2%-83.8%-59.2%-93.2%24.1%5.3%-66.7%
1M Excs Rtn-14.5%36.9%6.8%-21.0%12.2%6.4%6.6%
3M Excs Rtn-57.5%25.2%14.9%-27.3%38.7%27.0%20.0%
6M Excs Rtn-62.3%18.2%20.6%-41.8%55.3%37.0%19.4%
12M Excs Rtn-25.4%-30.0%-81.2%3.5%-45.5%-8.6%-27.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-148.9%-154.9%-134.3%-164.5%-64.8%-68.1%-141.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Developing novel, immune-modulatory, off-the-shelf therapeutic cancer vaccines based on our T-win®1511522226
Total1511522226


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,846,392
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202517.3%
Average Daily Volume823,323
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.46
Basic Shares Quantity66,941,964
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/14/20251.7%-9.2% 
8/11/2025-42.0%19.3%-0.6%
5/14/2025-2.0%3.0%50.0%
3/4/2025-1.6%-3.5%17.0%
11/12/2024-11.7%-16.7%-19.6%
8/13/202417.7%12.3%-37.3%
5/14/20242.1%-2.1%-9.2%
3/5/20242.5%6.8%1.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1186
# Negative479
Median Positive2.1%9.7%22.0%
Median Negative-6.8%-9.2%-21.0%
Max Positive17.7%55.3%50.0%
Max Negative-42.0%-20.7%-37.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251114202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023305202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023811202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022314202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Hunter Heidi 6022025Buy1.3915,00020,88420,884Form
1Ahmad Qasim IftikharChief Medical Officer12262024Buy0.8531,35026,55326,553Form
2Zocca Mai-BrittChief Executive Officer12232024Buy0.8112,50010,12040,392Form
3Sullivan AmyChief Financial Officer12232024Buy0.8310,2508,48370,041Form
4Smith Devin WhittemoreGeneral Counsel12232024Buy0.8112,0009,72013,720Form