Illumina (ILMN)
Market Price (3/11/2026): $122.05 | Market Cap: $18.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Illumina (ILMN)
Market Price (3/11/2026): $122.05Market Cap: $18.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.0% | Key risksILMN key risks include [1] major regulatory fines and a forced divestiture related to its Grail acquisition, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8% |
| Key risksILMN key risks include [1] major regulatory fines and a forced divestiture related to its Grail acquisition, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Mixed Q4 2025 Financial Results and Subdued 2026 Guidance.
Illumina reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.16 billion and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.35, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.1 billion and $1.22, respectively. However, the company's full fiscal year 2025 revenue remained flat at $4.34 billion compared to 2024. Furthermore, the fiscal year 2026 guidance, while projecting total revenue growth of 4-6% to between $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion, included a 1.5-2.0% benefit from the SomaLogic acquisition, alongside anticipated mid-to-high single-digit revenue declines in research and applied consumables and instruments expected to be flat to slightly down. This mixed financial picture, particularly the stagnant full-year 2025 revenue and specific segment weakness in the 2026 outlook, likely tempered investor sentiment despite the Q4 beat.
2. Persistent China Market Challenges and Declining NovaSeq X Shipments.
Despite the lifting of China's export ban on Illumina products on November 10, 2025, the company's continued inclusion on China's Unreliable Entities List requires government approval for instrument purchases, maintaining a notable hurdle in this significant market. Compounding this, Illumina reported a meaningful decrease in NovaSeq X shipments compared to both the first quarter of 2025 and the prior year, indicating a weakening demand for its high-throughput sequencing technology.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.9% change in ILMN stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 131.45 | 122.35 | -6.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,288 | 4,343 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 19.6% | 19.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.6 | 21.9 | -23.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 153 | 152 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ILMN | -6.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.9% | -2.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.9% | 23.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.4% change in ILMN stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 75.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.96 | 122.35 | 22.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,284 | 4,343 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.4% | 19.6% | -33.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 21.9 | 75.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 157 | 152 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ILMN | 22.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.3% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 11.9% | 29.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.9% change in ILMN stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 88.74 | 122.35 | 37.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,372 | 4,343 | -0.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.2 | 4.3 | 32.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 152 | 4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ILMN | 37.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 40.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 4.2% | 43.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.8% change in ILMN stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 193.59 | 122.35 | -36.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,583 | 4,343 | -5.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.6 | 4.3 | -35.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 157 | 152 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ILMN | -36.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.3% | 36.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 26.0% | 41.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ILMN Return | 3% | -47% | -31% | -1% | -2% | -5% | -65% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -19% | -9% | 0% | 2% | -11% | -12% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ILMN Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 55% | 7% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ILMN Max Drawdown | -6% | -53% | -54% | -27% | -47% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -33% | -28% | -9% | -25% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TMO, DHR, A, QGEN, BIO. See ILMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ILMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 465.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 623 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TMO, DHR, A, QGEN, BIO
In The Past
Illumina's stock fell -82.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2021. A -82.3% loss requires a 465.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Illumina (ILMN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Illumina (ILMN):
- Intel for DNA sequencing: Just as Intel provides the essential processors that power computers, Illumina provides the foundational technology and instruments that sequence DNA, enabling researchers and clinicians to read the genetic code.
- Microsoft for genomics: Similar to how Microsoft creates the operating systems and software that form the backbone of computing, Illumina provides the core platforms and tools (hardware and software) that power the field of genomics.
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- Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) Systems: These are high-throughput instruments used for rapid and accurate DNA and RNA sequencing across various research and clinical applications.
- Sequencing Reagents and Consumables: These include essential chemical kits, flow cells, and other materials required to prepare samples and operate Illumina's sequencing platforms.
- Microarray Systems: These instruments are designed for parallel analysis of genetic variations, genotyping, and gene expression profiling.
- Microarray Consumables: These are specialized chips (arrays) and reagent kits used with microarray instruments for various genomic analysis applications.
- Bioinformatics Software and Solutions: These comprise software tools and platforms for managing, analyzing, and interpreting the vast genomic data generated by their instruments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Illumina (symbol: ILMN) primarily sells its sequencing and array technologies, consumables, and software to other companies and organizations, rather than directly to individuals.
Given the diverse nature of Illumina's customer base and the fact that public companies rarely disclose specific major customers by name (unless a single customer accounts for a significant portion of revenue, which is not typical for Illumina), it is more appropriate to identify the major *categories* of institutions and companies that utilize their products.
The primary categories of customers Illumina serves include:
- Academic and Research Institutions: This category encompasses universities, government laboratories, and non-profit research centers worldwide that use Illumina's platforms for fundamental research in genomics, genetics, biology, and various other scientific fields.
- Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Companies: These customers leverage Illumina's technology for drug discovery and development, biomarker identification, genetic screening, and research into new therapies.
- Clinical Laboratories and Healthcare Providers: This segment includes diagnostic laboratories, hospitals, and other healthcare entities that use Illumina's products for clinical applications such as oncology testing, reproductive health screening, rare disease diagnosis, and pharmacogenomics.
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Jacob Thaysen, PhD Chief Executive Officer
Jacob Thaysen joined Illumina as Chief Executive Officer in September 2023. Prior to Illumina, he served as Senior Vice President of Agilent Technologies and President of its Life Sciences and Applied Markets Group from 2018 to 2023, and President of Agilent's Diagnostics and Genomics Group from 2014 to 2018. Before Agilent, he was Corporate Vice President of R&D at Dako, a Danish cancer diagnostic company, and a management consultant at Copenhagen Consultancy Company (now Bain & Co). Early in his career, he founded and served as Chief Technology Officer of Cantion, a research and defense application development company based in Denmark. Thaysen holds an MSc and PhD in physics from the Technical University of Denmark.
Ankur Dhingra Chief Financial Officer
Ankur Dhingra was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Illumina in April 2024. He previously served as CFO at Summit Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical oncology company, and prior to that, as CFO at CareDx, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company. Dhingra spent 18 years at Agilent Technologies, holding various financial and operational leadership roles, including Vice President of Investor Relations and Group CFO for the Life Sciences and Applied Markets Group. He is a Chartered Accountant from The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India.
Steve Barnard, PhD Chief Technology Officer
Steve Barnard serves as Illumina's Chief Technology Officer, leading the company's research and product development teams. He joined Illumina in 1998 as the company's first scientist and fourth employee, holding various leadership positions within Illumina's R&D organization for over 25 years. Dr. Barnard has significantly contributed to maturing Illumina's foundational science technologies and has played an integral role in advancing the company's products, including the NovaSeq X series. He holds more than 100 patents globally.
Everett Cunningham Chief Commercial Officer
Everett Cunningham joined Illumina as Chief Commercial Officer in June 2024. He is responsible for building and managing the company's global commercial organization and strategy. Cunningham brings over 20 years of commercial experience from the healthcare tech, life sciences, and pharmaceutical industries. Most recently, he served as Chief Commercial Officer at Exact Sciences, where he oversaw the company's marketing, sales, and customer service functions.
Jakob Wedel Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer
Jakob Wedel was appointed Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer at Illumina in April 2024, leading corporate strategy, partnerships, alliances, and acquisitions. With over 25 years in top-tier strategy consulting focused on the life science and technology sector, Mr. Wedel was previously a Senior Partner at Ernst and Young's strategy practice, EY Parthenon, where he played a key role in the global expansion of its life science strategy practice.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Illumina's business (ILMN) are:
- Regulatory and Legal Challenges: Illumina faces significant regulatory and legal hurdles stemming primarily from its acquisition of Grail. The European Commission imposed a substantial $476 million fine on Illumina for completing the acquisition without obtaining the necessary regulatory approval and has since ordered Illumina to divest Grail. Illumina is also entangled in an ongoing legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) concerning the Grail acquisition, with decisions expected to impact the company's future actions regarding Grail. Furthermore, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an investigation into the Grail acquisition, requesting documents related to the deal and the conduct of management. These regulatory and legal challenges introduce significant financial penalties, operational uncertainty, and resource drain for the company.
- Intensified Competition: Illumina's market dominance in next-generation sequencing (NGS) is increasingly threatened by competitive pressures. Roche has introduced its "sequencing by expansion (SBX) technology," which analysts consider a formidable competitor to Illumina's platforms, potentially impacting its market share due to competitive pricing and performance. Other key competitors include Thermo Fisher Scientific, Pacific Biosciences, Oxford Nanopore Technologies, and MGI Tech Co., all vying for market share with their own sequencing technologies. Additionally, Element Biosciences has filed lawsuits against Illumina, alleging anticompetitive conduct, including exclusive dealing and predatory discounts, and patent infringement, further intensifying the competitive landscape. This heightened competition could lead to pricing pressures, reduced profit margins, and a potential loss of market leadership for Illumina.
- Geopolitical Risks and Trade Restrictions: Illumina is exposed to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning its operations in China. China has placed Illumina on an "unreliable entity list" and has initiated export restrictions on its sequencing instruments, citing discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises. This ban and associated restrictions are expected to significantly impact Illumina's revenue and prospects in the Greater China region, which accounts for a notable portion of its total revenue. Furthermore, new U.S. import tariffs are anticipated to increase Illumina's costs, adding to the financial pressures.
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Ultima Genomics' ultra-low-cost sequencing platform: Ultima Genomics emerged publicly in 2022 with a sequencing platform claiming a significantly lower cost per gigabase (as low as $1/Gb) compared to Illumina's current offerings. If its technology proves robust, scalable, and accurate in real-world large-scale applications, its drastically lower price point could exert immense pressure on Illumina's reagent pricing, market share, and profitability, especially for high-volume genomics centers. This represents a direct challenge to Illumina's long-standing economic advantage in high-throughput sequencing, akin to a disruptor fundamentally altering the cost structure of an industry.
Rapid advancements and increasing adoption of long-read sequencing technologies: Companies like Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) and Pacific Biosciences (PacBio) are continuously improving their long-read sequencing platforms (e.g., ONT's PromethION, PacBio's Revio). While historically complementing short-read sequencing, long-read technologies are rapidly enhancing accuracy, throughput, and cost-efficiency. As these platforms become more competitive across a broader range of applications, they could increasingly encroach upon traditional short-read strongholds where Illumina dominates, potentially displacing Illumina's technology in areas that value comprehensive genomic information (e.g., structural variants, repetitive regions, epigenetics) as long-read performance metrics approach or surpass short-read's across a wider set of applications.
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Illumina (ILMN) operates in the genomics market, with its main products and services centered around next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology and its applications in various fields, including clinical genomics and research. The company itself has provided estimates for its addressable markets.
- Illumina estimates its total addressable genomics market to expand to $120 billion by 2027, globally.
- For 2024, Illumina estimated that the clinical market (global) represents a total addressable market of more than $100 billion.
- The research and applied market (global) has an estimated total addressable market of $25 billion for 2024, according to Illumina.
Further breakdowns of specific market segments in which Illumina participates include:
- The global next-generation sequencing (NGS) market was valued between USD 9.29 billion and USD 23.3 billion in 2024, with projections to reach between USD 27.55 billion and USD 85.4 billion by 2032 or 2033, depending on the source. The North American NGS market held a significant share, for example, 55.65% in 2024.
- The global genomics market, a broader category, was estimated at USD 42.64 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 66.85 billion by 2029. Another estimate placed the global genomics market at USD 27.75 billion in 2023, growing to USD 80.17 billion by 2032.
- The global NGS oncology testing total addressable market is anticipated to grow to $75 billion by 2035. More specifically, the global clinical oncology next-generation sequencing (NGS) market was valued at USD 567.50 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,421.37 million by 2033. Another source estimates this market at USD 744.4 million in 2025, projected to expand to USD 3.13 billion by 2035.
- The global reproductive genetics market was estimated to be valued at USD 7.31 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 16.67 billion by 2032. Another report valued it at USD 5.1 billion in 2023, with a projection to reach USD 17.2 billion by 2033. The global preimplantation genetic testing market, a segment of reproductive genetics, was valued at US$690.2 million in 2025 and is projected to reach US$1,135.0 million by 2030.
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Illumina (ILMN) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:- Accelerated Adoption of NovaSeq X Platform: The transition to and increasing adoption of the NovaSeq X instrument series and its high-throughput consumables are significant growth drivers, particularly within clinical markets. Illumina reported that over 75% of sequencing volume and over 50% of revenue have now transitioned to NovaSeq X high-throughput consumables, with this momentum expected to continue driving near-term revenue growth.
- Expansion in Clinical Genomics and Diagnostic Markets: Strong growth in the clinical market, excluding China, is a primary driver. This is fueled by the broader adoption of comprehensive genomic profiling and the increasing use of sequencing-intensive applications like Minimal Residual Disease (MRD). The clinical market presents a significantly larger total addressable market (TAM) compared to research and is anticipated to grow at a faster rate.
- Strategic Focus on Multiomics and Data Services: Illumina is expanding into new areas such as multiomics and data services. This includes the launch of products like "Illumina Protein Prep" and the introduction of "BioInsight," a new business aimed at leveraging genomic and multiomics data for drug discovery and research. The company's acquisition of SomaLogic is also expected to bolster its multiomics and proteomics offerings.
- Stabilization and Growth in the Research Business: While the clinical sector is currently leading, Illumina anticipates a gradual return to growth in its research business as pricing challenges subside and market conditions stabilize.
- International Market Expansion (excluding Greater China): Despite facing regulatory and export restrictions in Greater China, Illumina is experiencing revenue growth in other international markets, especially in clinical sequencing consumables. The company is strategically managing its global presence to capitalize on opportunities outside of China.
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Share Repurchases
- Illumina announced an equity buyback program for $1.5 billion worth of its shares on November 6, 2024.
- In Q2 2025, the company repurchased $380 million in shares, and as of the end of the quarter, approximately $800 million of its authorization remained.
- From late 2024 through October 2025, Illumina completed nearly $942 million in share buybacks under its ongoing program.
Share Issuance
- In Q2 2025, stockholders approved an amendment to the 2015 Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan to increase the maximum number of shares authorized for issuance by 7.9 million shares.
Inbound Investments
- Illumina has raised a total of $28 million in funding over 11 rounds, with its latest funding round being a Grant (prize money) for an undisclosed amount on January 1, 2020.
Outbound Investments
- Illumina completed the acquisition of GRAIL in August 2021 for an approximate $8 billion deal, following an initial announcement in September 2020. However, the company's board voted to divest GRAIL in June 2024 due to regulatory challenges.
- In June 2025, Illumina entered a definitive agreement to acquire SomaLogic for $350 million in cash, with up to an additional $75 million in performance-based milestones and royalties, to expand its proteomics platform.
- The company acquired Fluent BioSciences in July 2024 (for an undisclosed amount) to enhance its capabilities in single-cell sequencing.
Capital Expenditures
- Illumina reported capital expenditures for free cash flow purposes of $31 million in Q3 2025, $30 million in Q2 2025, and $32 million in Q1 2025.
- The company maintains significant annual R&D spending, just under $1 billion, to capture expanding genomics and multiomics opportunities.
- Primary focuses for capital expenditures include the rollout of the NovaSeq X platform and investment in new technologies like spatial transcriptomics and single-cell analysis.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
| 05312025 | ILMN | Illumina | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 59.8% | 63.5% | -1.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 158.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 25.6 |
| Rev LTM | 5,704 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,136 |
| FCF LTM | 962 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 980 |
| CFO LTM | 1,238 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,241 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 25.6 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 19.2 |
| P/E | 24.2 |
| P/CFO | 19.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -10.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -82.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Illumina | 4,438 | 4,553 | 3,543 | ||
| GRAIL | 93 | 55 | |||
| Intersegment eliminations | -26 | -24 | -1 | ||
| Helix | 1 | ||||
| Total | 4,505 | 4,584 | 3,543 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Illumina | 552 | 481 | 1,008 | ||
| GRAIL | -4,657 | ||||
| Intersegment eliminations | -3 | -24 | |||
| Helix | 1 | ||||
| Total | 552 | -4,179 | 985 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $122.35 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 18.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/28/2000 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $134.21 | $111.39 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -8.8% | 9.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 42.4% | 48.9% |
| Downside Capture | 99.71 | 136.16 |
| Upside Capture | 57.85 | 145.10 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -3.3% | 39.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.70 | -0.82 | -0.30 | 0.67 | 1.01 | 1.09 |
| Up Beta | -6.09 | -4.00 | -3.05 | -0.62 | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| Down Beta | 0.29 | -1.42 | -0.85 | -0.22 | 0.83 | 1.10 |
| Up Capture | -181% | 33% | 73% | 196% | 202% | 105% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 18 | 28 | 59 | 122 | 356 |
| Down Capture | -12% | 35% | 63% | 108% | 117% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 33 | 65 | 128 | 394 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ILMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | 46.1% | 48.7% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.0% | 17.5% | 0.07 | 43.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.7% | 19.1% | 0.77 | 39.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 79.6% | 26.2% | 2.22 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.2% | 17.2% | 0.88 | 15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 16.4% | 0.14 | 34.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.4% | 45.5% | -0.36 | 15.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ILMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | -20.8% | 45.4% | -0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.0% | 14.5% | 0.37 | 45.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 47.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.5% | 17.2% | 1.16 | 10.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 19.0% | 0.50 | 12.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 42.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.5% | 56.8% | 0.33 | 19.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ILMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | -2.0% | 42.6% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.3% | 16.5% | 0.51 | 49.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.8% | 0.72 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.1% | 15.6% | 0.81 | 7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.9% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 36.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.0% | 66.8% | 1.05 | 12.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/13/2026 | 1.0% | 1.1% | -20.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | 24.8% | 22.3% | 28.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -7.8% | -7.0% | -2.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | -4.8% | 1.7% | 6.8% |
| 1/14/2025 | -5.4% | -2.0% | -28.2% |
| 11/4/2024 | 1.0% | -1.3% | -7.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 4.1% | 2.9% | 11.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | -4.9% | -10.2% | -16.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 3.8% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -8.1% | -11.8% |
| Max Positive | 24.8% | 22.3% | 28.8% |
| Max Negative | -14.6% | -25.5% | -28.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davies, Scott M | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 136.09 | 323 | 43,957 | 2,434,242 | Form |
| 2 | Wedel, Christensen Jakob | SVP, Strategy/Corp Development | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 129.27 | 549 | 70,969 | 1,415,765 | Form |
| 3 | Gottlieb, Scott | Direct | Buy | 11052025 | 122.13 | 500 | 61,065 | 1,529,434 | Form | |
| 4 | Dhingra, Ankur | SVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 5142025 | 81.21 | 6,100 | 495,381 | 2,022,616 | Form |
| 5 | Thaysen, Jacob | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 5142025 | 80.88 | 6,500 | 525,732 | 6,271,578 | Form |
ILMN Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is well below 1.0x, indicating a highly unfavorable risk/reward profile. The downside scenario is both more likely (60% probability) and of a greater magnitude (-39.1%) than the upside. The speculative valuation requires near-perfect execution into a contested market, leaving no margin for error.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type E: 'Turnaround / Deep Value'The company's performance is defined by a significant operational turnaround centered on a new product cycle (NovaSeq X) following a period of flat/negative growth and strategic missteps (GRAIL acquisition). The investment thesis hinges on management's ability to execute this turnaround amid cyclical market headwinds, which is the core focus of this archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis is centered on the successful execution of the NovaSeq X product cycle. Consistent new instrument placements are expanding the installed base, which is now beginning to drive an acceleration in high-margin, recurring consumables revenue as customers increase utilization. This creates a positive mix-shift and margin tailwind.
- Sequencing Consumables Revenue Growth is accelerating, growing at a 'high single-digit rate' in Q3 2025.
- NovaSeq X instrument placements have been stable and robust, with over 55 placed in Q3 2025, meeting the company's goal of 50-60 per quarter.
- The business mix is shifting accretively towards high-margin (~70-75%) consumables, which now represent ~72% of the core business mix.
PRIMARY RISK
Competitors like Pacific Biosciences and Element Biosciences are gaining traction in core high-throughput applications, directly threatening Illumina's primary profit engine. This is not just niche competition but a direct assault on the 'razor-and-blade' model via pricing pressure and customer trade-in programs.
- The 'Next 6 Month Tangible Risks' section identifies 'Competitive Cannibalization' as a 'CRITICAL' impact risk with 'HIGH' likelihood.
- Competitors are actively targeting Illumina's installed base with 'trade-in' programs.
- Illumina is dominant in the 'Efficiency/Scale' segment but is losing to competitors in the 'Performance-Sensitive' (PACB) and 'Price-Value' (TMO) segments.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Sequencing Consumables Revenue Growth | Sustained high-single-digit YoY growth | This is the primary North Star metric. Its acceleration confirms the NovaSeq X installed base is driving utilization and validates the entire 'razor-and-blade' thesis. |
| NovaSeq X Instrument Placements | 50+ units per quarter | This is the leading indicator for future consumables revenue. A failure to maintain this placement velocity would be the earliest sign that the core 'Alpha Driver' is failing. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Stable above 68% | This KPI is the most direct way to measure the impact of the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. A sustained decline would indicate that competitive pricing pressure is eroding the profitability of the core consumables business. |
Turnaround vs. Overhang: NovaSeq Cycle vs. GRAIL Divestiture & Competition
BULL VIEW
The operational turnaround is real. Accelerating consumables revenue, strong NovaSeq placements, and upward analyst revisions prove the core business is strengthening and can power through near-term headwinds.
CORE TENSION
Can the accelerating, high-margin consumables business, driven by the new NovaSeq X cycle, generate enough growth to offset the forced, value-destructive divestiture of GRAIL and increasing competitive pressure?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Bear case is winning. The 'Next 6 Month Tangible Risks' module quantifies multiple high-impact, high-probability negative catalysts, chiefly the mandated GRAIL divestiture and competitive cannibalization of high-margin consumables.
BEAR VIEW
The GRAIL divestiture is a forced sale in a tough market, guaranteeing a massive loss. Meanwhile, competitors are actively cannibalizing the core consumables business, structurally impairing future growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb 5, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & FY2026 Guidance Watch: FY2026 revenue growth guidance. Bears expect guidance below consensus due to pricing pressure and competitive dynamics, especially in high-throughput consumables. |
Anytime (Deadline Q2 2026) | GRAIL Divestiture Announcement Watch: Terms of the sale or spin-off. Specifically, the total value write-down and any ongoing cash funding required from Illumina. |
Next 6 Months | U.S. Geopolitical Action on China Watch: Escalation of Chinese genomics firms from the 'Unverified List' to the 'Entity List' or passage of a BIOSECURE-like bill. |
Next 6 Months | Major Pharma 2026 Outlooks Watch: Commentary on R&D budgets and capital expenditure discipline from large pharmaceutical customers in their earnings calls (e.g., Pfizer, Roche). |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 12, 2025 | Investor Day Details: Hosted an investor day focused on long-term strategy, emphasizing the shift towards clinical genomics and the potential of multiomics to drive future growth. | Rose significantly by 3.8% $97.38 -> $101.11 |
Sep 9, 2025 | New Product Presentation Details: Presented data on the new NovaSeq X series at a healthcare conference, highlighting its capability to sequence over 20,000 genomes per year, driving down costs. | Fell notably by -2.8% $98.22 -> $95.49 |
Oct 30, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Reported Q3 revenue of $1.08B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.34, beating consensus estimates. Company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, citing strong clinical market demand. | Surged +24.8% $99.01 -> $123.54 |
Dec 1, 2025 | Strategic Collaboration Details: Announced a collaboration and strategic investment in MyOme's MPH Trial, aimed at demonstrating the value of whole-genome sequencing in healthcare. | Slight -0.9% pullback $128.72 -> $127.55 |
Jan 6, 2026 | Product Launch Details: Illumina launched its Illumina Connected Multiomics software, a cloud-based platform designed to streamline the analysis of complex multiomic datasets for researchers. | Rose significantly by 4.1% $141.33 -> $147.11 |
Jan 13, 2026 | Preliminary Q4 & FY2025 Results Details: Company announced preliminary Q4 revenue of ~$1.16B and FY25 revenue of ~$4.34B, beating analyst estimates. Ex-China growth was a positive signal at +7% for the quarter. | Modest 1.0% gain $145.55 -> $146.99 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is trading with explosive volatility (4.7x S&P 500). The Bearish sentiment, driven by the GRAIL overhang and competitive threats, alongside a contested moat creates a poor risk/reward. Exposure must be capped until visibility improves.
Diversification Alternatives
A
SECTORUnlike ILMN, Agilent (A) has a more diversified business across diagnostics, genomics, and applied markets, offering greater stability. It lacks a major, value-destructive overhang like the GRAIL divestiture.
WAT
SECTORWaters Corp (WAT) is a focused leader in chromatography and mass spectrometry, avoiding the intense price competition of the sequencing market. It has a clean balance sheet and a consistent history of strong free cash flow.
Illumina is transitioning from a high-growth genomics monopolist into a mature, recurring-revenue business, with its valuation hinging on the successful customer upgrade cycle to the new NovaSeq X platform and stabilizing its core clinical end-markets.
Filter all news through the lens of the NovaSeq X adoption cycle and clinical market stabilization. The key debate is whether the new platform can re-accelerate growth amid rising competition and cautious research spending.
Reports of NovaSeq X placements exceeding 100+ per quarter, particularly in clinical labs (>60% of placements). Evidence of consumables 'pull-through' on the new platform accelerating to double-digit growth. Announcements of large-scale population sequencing projects utilizing the NovaSeq X platform. FY2026 revenue guidance exceeding 4-6% growth.
Competitors like Pacific Biosciences or Ultima Genomics winning significant contracts from former Illumina-exclusive customers. A slowdown in NovaSeq X placements below ~270/year. Clinical consumables growth ex-China falling below the mid-teens percentage range. Any material negative financial impact from the completed SomaLogic acquisition.
Quarterly fluctuations in academic/research lab demand, as this segment is already known to be constrained. Early-stage announcements from long-read sequencing competitors without commercial traction. Individual studies highlighting niche applications, which don't affect the large-scale clinical and research markets that drive revenue.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful upgrade cycle to the NovaSeq X series of sequencing instruments. Launched in late 2022, this platform reduces the cost per genome to ~$200. Success is defined by placing ~270+ instruments annually and driving a corresponding high-single-digit increase in high-margin sequencing consumables, which account for over 65% of revenue. In Q4 2025, over 60% of the 100+ placements were to clinical customers, signaling adoption in the key growth market.
Sequencing Instruments & Consumables
$4.0B TTM (93% of Total) · 70% MarginWhat It Is
Sequencing Instruments: NovaSeq X Plus, NovaSeq 6000, MiSeq, NextSeq. Consumables: Proprietary reagents, flow cells, and library preparation kits required for each sequencing run on Illumina's closed-ecosystem machines.
Who Pays & How
Research institutions (e.g., Broad Institute), pharmaceutical companies (e.g., AstraZeneca, Merck), and clinical diagnostic labs pay for a combination of instruments (capex) and consumables (opex). They are locked into the ecosystem by the high initial cost of the instrument, established workflows, and data analysis pipelines tailored to Illumina's technology, creating high switching costs.
Competition
Microarrays
$0.3B TTM (7% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
BeadArray and iScan systems: devices and consumables for genotyping, which analyze specific points of genetic variation rather than sequencing the entire genome.
Who Pays & How
Consumer genomics companies (e.g., 23andMe), agricultural biotechnology firms, and researchers pay for a lower-cost method of genetic analysis for less complex applications than full sequencing.
Competition
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