International Business Machines (IBM)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $204.96 | Market Cap: $192.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

International Business Machines (IBM)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $204.96
Market Cap: $192.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 6.3%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.3 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -18%

Key risks
IBM key risks include [1] intense competition from major hyperscalers in the hybrid cloud market, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 6.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.3 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -18%
6 Key risks
IBM key risks include [1] intense competition from major hyperscalers in the hybrid cloud market, Show more.

IBM in ETFs

Weight = IBM's share of each fund

SPY0.31%
VOO0.41%
IVV0.32%
VTI0.36%
ITOT0.28%
DIA2.5%
IWB0.30%
RSP0.15%
+35 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/22/2026

International Business Machines (IBM) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. IBM missed Wall Street's revenue and adjusted earnings expectations for fiscal Q2 2026. The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $17.2 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $17.86 billion by approximately $660 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.93 also missed analysts' forecasts of $3.01 to $3.02 per share.

2. The Infrastructure segment experienced a significant decline, driven by a shift in client spending. IBM's Infrastructure revenue decreased by 7% in fiscal Q2 2026. This was primarily due to a late-quarter reprioritization of customer capital expenditures towards servers, storage, and memory to secure supply-constrained infrastructure, diverting spending away from IBM's software and services offerings. Notably, IBM Z revenue was down 42%.

Show more
Updated on 7/22/2026

International Business Machines (IBM) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. IBM missed Wall Street's revenue and adjusted earnings expectations for fiscal Q2 2026. The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $17.2 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $17.86 billion by approximately $660 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.93 also missed analysts' forecasts of $3.01 to $3.02 per share.

2. The Infrastructure segment experienced a significant decline, driven by a shift in client spending. IBM's Infrastructure revenue decreased by 7% in fiscal Q2 2026. This was primarily due to a late-quarter reprioritization of customer capital expenditures towards servers, storage, and memory to secure supply-constrained infrastructure, diverting spending away from IBM's software and services offerings. Notably, IBM Z revenue was down 42%.

3. IBM lowered its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance. Following the disappointing Q2 2026 performance, the company trimmed its constant-currency revenue growth outlook for the full fiscal year 2026 to a range of 4% to 5%, down from its previous expectation of more than 5%.

4. Analyst downgrades and price target reductions contributed to negative sentiment. After IBM's preliminary Q2 2026 earnings warning on July 14, 2026, several analysts revised their outlooks. For instance, Citigroup slashed its price target from $375 to $255, and HSBC downgraded IBM's stock from "Hold" to "Reduce," lowering its price target from $231 to $191.

5. A shareholder rights firm initiated an investigation into potential securities-law violations. Following the significant stock drop of over 25% on July 14, 2026, after the preliminary earnings announcement, a shareholder rights firm launched an investigation into IBM regarding potential misstatements related to the company's sales pipeline and AI-related demand trends.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.5% change in IBM stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267222026Change
Stock Price ($)240.62205.77-14.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)67,53668,9122.0%
Net Income Margin (%)15.7%15.6%-0.5%
P/E Multiple21.318.0-15.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)936938-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-14.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
IBM-14.5% 
Market (SPY)14.9%5.8%
Sector (XLK)35.6%4.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -29.6% change in IBM stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257222026Change
Stock Price ($)292.38205.77-29.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)65,40268,9125.4%
Net Income Margin (%)12.1%15.6%29.1%
P/E Multiple34.518.0-48.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)934938-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution-29.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
IBM-29.6% 
Market (SPY)9.9%19.5%
Sector (XLK)25.4%15.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -28.4% change in IBM stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -63.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257222026Change
Stock Price ($)287.43205.77-28.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)62,83068,9129.7%
Net Income Margin (%)8.7%15.6%79.1%
P/E Multiple48.718.0-63.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)928938-1.1%
Cumulative Contribution-28.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
IBM-28.4% 
Market (SPY)22.0%22.6%
Sector (XLK)43.0%17.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 69.4% change in IBM stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 415.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)63020237222026Change
Stock Price ($)121.47205.7769.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)60,58468,91213.7%
Net Income Margin (%)3.0%15.6%415.5%
P/E Multiple60.118.0-70.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)908938-3.3%
Cumulative Contribution69.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
IBM69.4% 
Market (SPY)74.6%32.3%
Sector (XLK)111.3%27.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
IBM Return16%11%22%39%38%-28%117%
Peers Return44%-31%52%31%17%-16%93%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IBM Win Rate58%50%67%75%50%43% 
Peers Win Rate67%28%68%63%48%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IBM Max Drawdown-18%-17%-15%-17%-20%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-11%-40%-17%-20%-34%-35% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, ACN, GOOGL. See IBM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventIBMS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-16.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven37 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-10.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.1%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven32 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-10.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven11.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven12 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-37.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven59.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven394 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-28.9%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.6%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven206 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.1%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.1%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven105 days62 days

Compare to MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, ACN, GOOGL

In The Past

International Business Machines's stock fell -16.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventIBMS&P 500
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-37.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven59.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven394 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-28.9%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.6%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven206 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.1%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.1%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven105 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-35.6%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven55.4%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven349 days15 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-34.6%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven52.8%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven203 days1085 days

Compare to MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, ACN, GOOGL

In The Past

International Business Machines's stock fell -16.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About International Business Machines (IBM)

International Business Machines Corporation, known as IBM, is a global technology and consulting company that provides integrated solutions and services worldwide. Founded in 1911, IBM helps businesses across various industries manage complex IT environments, transform their operations, and innovate using advanced technologies. The company operates through four main segments: Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing.

In its Software segment, IBM offers a robust portfolio including hybrid cloud platforms like Red Hat, business automation tools, artificial intelligence and data analytics solutions, and security software. This segment also provides critical transaction processing software that supports mission-critical workloads for industries such as banking, airlines, and retail. The Consulting segment focuses on business transformation, providing services in strategy, business process design, data and analytics, and system integration, helping clients implement new technologies and optimize their operations.

IBM's Infrastructure segment delivers powerful on-premises and cloud-based server and storage solutions designed for mission-critical and regulated workloads, along with support for hybrid cloud environments. Additionally, its Financing segment provides various lease, loan, and short-term working capital options to support clients acquiring IBM's technology and services. Collectively, IBM serves a broad array of enterprise customers across diverse sectors globally, enabling them to build, manage, and secure their digital foundations and drive business growth.

AI Analysis | Feedback

IBM is like the Microsoft for large enterprise IT, providing critical software, hardware, and consulting services.

A combination of Accenture's IT consulting and Oracle's enterprise software and infrastructure, tailored for the world's biggest businesses.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the major products and services offered by International Business Machines (IBM):

  • Hybrid Cloud Platform & Software: Provides enterprise open-source solutions, including Red Hat, for hybrid cloud environments.
  • Business Automation & AI Software: Offers software for business process automation, AIOps, IT management, data analytics, and artificial intelligence.
  • Security Software & Services: Delivers solutions for threat, data, and identity security.
  • Transaction Processing Software: Supports mission-critical, on-premise workloads for industries such as banking, airlines, and retail.
  • Business & Technology Consulting: Provides strategic advice, business process design, data analytics, system integration, and technology consulting services.
  • Application & Cloud Platform Services: Offers services for developing, deploying, and managing applications and cloud platforms.
  • Server & Storage Hardware: Supplies on-premises and cloud-based server and storage solutions for mission-critical and regulated workloads.
  • Hybrid Cloud Infrastructure Support: Provides support services and solutions for clients' hybrid cloud infrastructure.
  • Financing Services: Offers lease, installment payment, loan financing, and short-term working capital financing for clients.

AI Analysis | Feedback

International Business Machines (symbol: IBM) primarily sells its integrated solutions and services to other companies (B2B) rather than individuals. While the provided background information does not list specific customer company names, it indicates that IBM's major customers operate in the following industries:
  • Banking
  • Airlines
  • Retail
These customers are typically large enterprises that utilize IBM's hybrid cloud platforms, enterprise software solutions (including Red Hat), business automation tools, data and AI solutions, security software, consulting services, and infrastructure (server and storage) solutions for their mission-critical and regulated workloads.

AI Analysis | Feedback

International Business Machines (symbol: IBM) has the following major suppliers:

  • GlobalFoundries (symbol: GFS)
  • Micron Technology (symbol: MU)
  • Western Digital (symbol: WDC)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Arvind Krishna, Chairman and CEO

Arvind Krishna joined IBM in 1990 at its Thomas J. Watson Research Center. He held critical leadership roles including Senior Vice President of Cloud and Cognitive Software and Director of IBM Research. He was a principal architect of the acquisition of Red Hat, the largest acquisition in the company's history. Krishna led the building and expansion of new markets for IBM in artificial intelligence, cloud, quantum computing, and blockchain technology. He became CEO in April 2020 and Chairman in January 2021. He holds a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B. Tech from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur.

James J. Kavanaugh, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

James J. Kavanaugh joined IBM in 1996. Prior to joining IBM, he served as Chief Financial Officer, Americas Global Services, at AT&T Corporation. He was appointed CFO in January 2018 and oversees IBM's worldwide financial operations, including accounting, investor relations, corporate strategy, corporate development, and treasury. Kavanaugh has been instrumental in aligning IBM's financial strategy with its long-term transformation goals, including managing divestitures, such as Kyndryl, and funding major acquisitions. He holds an MBA from The Ohio State University and a BS from the University of Dayton. He currently serves on the T-Mobile US Board of Directors.

Rob Thomas, Senior Vice President, Software and Chief Commercial Officer

Rob Thomas oversees IBM's software business, including global product, development, business, and revenue, and is responsible for all go-to-market activities across IBM's portfolio. He directed major acquisitions totaling over $12 billion, further strengthening IBM's capabilities in software solutions. His 20-year IBM tenure includes leadership in consulting, microelectronics, and software, and he is the author of several books on big data and AI.

Mohamad Ali, Senior Vice President, IBM Consulting

Mohamad Ali leads IBM Consulting, directing global business transformation and technology services through industry expertise and strategic partnerships. Before joining IBM, he served as CEO of IDG and Carbonite, and was Chief Strategy Officer at Hewlett Packard.

Nickle LaMoreaux, Senior Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer

Nickle LaMoreaux oversees IBM's global HR function, including talent acquisition, workforce development, diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), compensation, and leadership development. Under her leadership, IBM adopted agile work models and expanded skills-based hiring. She plays a key role in change management as IBM adapts its workforce to new business models in cloud, AI, and consulting.

AI Analysis | Feedback

International Business Machines (IBM) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from intense market competition, pervasive cybersecurity threats, and challenges in the adoption and governance of artificial intelligence (AI).

Key Risks to International Business Machines (IBM)

  1. Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion in Hybrid Cloud and AI: IBM operates in a fiercely competitive environment, particularly in its hybrid cloud and enterprise software segments, where it contends with hyperscale providers like Microsoft and Amazon Web Services. Its consulting arm also battles global systems integrators, and the AI arena sees competition from both large tech companies and agile startups. IBM's revenue growth can be dwarfed by competitors, making it challenging to compete on the breadth of services and pricing in the public cloud sector.
  2. Cybersecurity Threats and Cloud Reliability Issues: As a major provider of integrated solutions and services, IBM is exposed to significant and evolving cybersecurity threats, including data breaches, ransomware, and other malicious attacks. The increased use of AI may introduce novel methods of attack, and the company's reliance on third-party suppliers also presents cybersecurity risks. Furthermore, frequent cloud outages and systemic weaknesses in its control plane architecture have been reported, which can erode customer trust and undermine IBM's hybrid cloud strategy and overall reliability.
  3. Challenges in AI Adoption, Governance, and Skills Shortage: The rapid advancement and adoption of generative AI present both opportunities and risks for IBM. A significant challenge lies in governance gaps, as many organizations, including those using IBM's AI models, lack robust AI governance policies and proper access controls. Additionally, there is a recognized skills shortage, particularly in the IBM i platform, and a broader need for workforce retraining and reskilling for AI, which could hinder IBM's ability to effectively implement and deliver AI solutions. Misalignment between client IT roadmaps and IBM's hybrid-cloud strategy, alongside the pressure to modernize while maintaining legacy systems, further contributes to this risk.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The rapid advancements and widespread adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, such as large language models (LLMs), present a clear emerging threat. While IBM has a long history in AI with its Watson platform and offers "data and artificial intelligence solutions," the current paradigm shift driven by companies like OpenAI, Google, and Meta, with their highly capable and increasingly accessible generative AI models, is redefining the competitive landscape. If IBM's enterprise AI offerings do not effectively integrate and leverage these new, powerful capabilities, or if competitors deliver more compelling and performant generative AI solutions that address business problems more efficiently, IBM's market position in this critical and rapidly evolving technology domain could be significantly challenged.

AI Analysis | Feedback

International Business Machines (IBM) operates across several key segments, each addressing significant global markets:

Software Segment

  • Hybrid Cloud Platform and Software Solutions: The global hybrid cloud market size was valued at USD 171.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 619.6 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.88% during 2026-2034.
  • Enterprise Open-Source Solutions (Red Hat): The global open source software market size is expected to grow from USD 48.54 billion in 2025 to USD 95.38 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 14.0%.
  • Business Automation Software: The global business process automation market size was approximately USD 9.78 billion in 2022 and is predicted to grow to around USD 21.15 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of roughly 10.10% between 2023 and 2030.
  • AIOps and Management: The global Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps) platform market size was estimated at USD 14.60 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 36.07 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15.2% from 2025 to 2030.
  • Data and Artificial Intelligence Solutions: The global Artificial Intelligence (AI) software market size is forecast to reach US$174.1 billion in 2025 and is estimated to be valued at US$467 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 25%.
  • Security Software and Services (Cybersecurity): The global cybersecurity market size reached USD 326.2 billion in 2025. Looking forward, the market is expected to reach USD 676.3 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.40% during 2026-2034.
  • Transaction Processing Software: The global Payment Processing Software market size is expected to reach USD 74,362.1 million by the end of 2025 and USD 165,495 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 10.517% during 2025 to 2033.

Consulting Segment

  • Business Transformation, Technology Consulting, and Application and Cloud Platform Services: The global IT consulting services market size is estimated at USD 69,590 million in 2025 and is expected to rise to USD 106,580 million by 2034, experiencing a CAGR of 6.4%.

Infrastructure Segment

  • On-premises and Cloud-based Server Solutions: The global enterprise server market size reached USD 132.0 billion in 2024. Looking forward, the market is expected to reach USD 310.0 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 10% during 2025-2033.
  • Storage Solutions: The global enterprise data storage market size is projected to surge from USD 13.1 billion in 2025 to USD 19.8 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 4.7% over the forecast period.

Financing Segment

  • Lease, Installment Payment, Loan Financing, and Short-term Working Capital Financing Services: Null

AI Analysis | Feedback

International Business Machines (IBM) anticipates several key drivers for its future revenue growth over the next two to three years:

  1. Hybrid Cloud and Generative AI Adoption: IBM's strategy is centered on being a software-led hybrid cloud and AI platform company. The company is experiencing significant growth in its generative AI book of business, which stood at over $12.5 billion by Q4 2025, indicating strong enterprise adoption of its AI capabilities.
  2. Strong Software Segment Performance: The Software segment, particularly driven by Red Hat, automation, and data & AI offerings, is expected to be a primary growth engine. IBM projected 10% software revenue growth for 2026. Red Hat's annual recurring revenue (ARR) continues to expand, and OpenShift is demonstrating strong growth within Red Hat.
  3. Accelerating Consulting Services: IBM's Consulting segment is forecast to see accelerated growth, fueled by strong demand for hybrid cloud and AI technologies, as well as its Consulting Advantage platform which leverages digital assets for client value.
  4. IBM Z Mainframe Cycle: The latest generation of IBM's mainframe platform (z17) is a significant contributor to the Infrastructure segment's revenue. Its robust adoption, particularly for mission-critical and AI/hybrid cloud workloads, continues to drive growth.
  5. Strategic Acquisitions: Mergers and acquisitions, primarily focused on software, remain a core strategy for IBM to enhance its portfolio and accelerate growth. Acquisitions like Confluent are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2026 and beyond.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • IBM suspended its share repurchase program from 2020 through 2023 to focus on debt repayment following the Red Hat acquisition.
  • As of early 2026, the company has not resumed stock buybacks under current CEO Arvind Krishna, despite having approximately $2.0 billion remaining in share repurchase authorization.
  • IBM has not repurchased $2 billion in stock in any single quarter since December 2019.

Share Issuance

  • IBM has experienced mild shareholder dilution, with fully-diluted shares outstanding increasing from 904 million in June 2021 to 924 million as of September 2024.
  • Shares outstanding for the quarter ending December 31, 2025, were 0.952 billion, reflecting a 1.63% increase year-over-year.
  • On average, since 1999, IBM has issued 18.3 million shares annually for stock-based compensation and stock purchase plans.

Outbound Investments

  • IBM has continued strategic acquisitions in the last 3-5 years, averaging 8 acquisitions annually from 2020-2025.
  • Key acquisitions include HashiCorp for $6.4 billion in April 2024, aimed at enhancing its hybrid cloud platform and infrastructure automation capabilities.
  • In December 2025, IBM acquired Confluent for $11 billion to bolster its smart data platform for enterprise generative AI.
  • Other acquisitions since 2021 have focused on strengthening its portfolio in areas such as AI-powered application resource management (Turbonomic, 2021), renewable energy asset performance management (Prescinto, 2024), and generative AI data needs (DataStax, 2025).

Capital Expenditures

  • IBM's capital expenditures have shown a general downward trend over the last decade.
  • Annual capital expenditures were approximately $2.01 billion in 2021, $1.35 billion in 2022, $1.245 billion in 2023, $1.048 billion in 2024, and $1.091 billion in 2025.
  • The company's focus on transitioning to higher-growth, higher-margin businesses like software and AI has contributed to a shrinking capital expenditure profile.

Better Bets vs. International Business Machines (IBM)

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IBMMSFTAMZNORCLACNGOOGLMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftAmazon.c.Oracle AccentureAlphabet  
Mkt Price205.77390.34244.85125.84140.09342.09225.31
Mkt Cap193.12,898.72,630.4361.885.84,138.91,496.1
Rev LTM68,912318,273742,77667,35873,101422,499195,687
Op Inc LTM12,946148,95785,42222,44211,515138,12953,932
FCF LTM12,25872,916-2,472-23,68612,58264,42912,420
FCF 3Y Avg12,26970,95221,346-4,09110,49869,47416,808
CFO LTM13,992170,141148,53131,97713,182174,35390,254
CFO 3Y Avg13,988136,991120,52723,82411,094138,01372,175

Growth & Margins

IBMMSFTAMZNORCLACNGOOGLMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftAmazon.c.Oracle AccentureAlphabet  
Rev Chg LTM9.7%17.9%14.2%17.4%6.7%17.5%15.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.5%15.3%12.3%10.6%4.8%14.1%11.4%
Rev Chg Q9.5%18.3%16.6%20.6%5.6%21.8%17.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%4.2%3.6%5.1%1.4%4.9%3.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM26.0%22.0%19.2%24.3%8.3%17.5%20.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg15.6%20.7%108.4%17.8%5.7%24.3%19.2%
Op Mgn LTM18.8%46.8%11.5%33.3%15.8%32.7%25.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.8%45.6%10.2%31.7%15.6%31.5%24.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%0.1%0.3%1.0%0.1%0.7%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM20.3%53.5%20.0%47.5%18.0%41.3%30.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.7%49.5%18.1%39.7%16.1%37.3%29.5%
FCF/Rev LTM17.8%22.9%-0.3%-35.2%17.2%15.2%16.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.0%26.1%3.5%-4.5%15.2%19.3%17.1%

Valuation

IBMMSFTAMZNORCLACNGOOGLMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftAmazon.c.Oracle AccentureAlphabet  
Mkt Cap193.12,898.72,630.4361.885.84,138.91,496.1
P/S2.89.13.55.41.29.84.5
P/Op Inc14.919.530.816.17.430.017.8
P/EBIT15.418.422.315.07.921.216.9
P/E18.023.129.021.211.025.822.2
P/CFO13.817.017.711.36.523.715.4
Total Yield8.8%5.2%3.5%6.3%13.7%4.1%5.8%
Dividend Yield3.3%0.9%0.0%1.6%4.6%0.2%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.7%2.2%1.0%-0.9%8.9%2.7%2.4%
D/E0.40.00.10.40.10.00.1
Net D/E0.3-0.00.00.3-0.0-0.00.0

Returns

IBMMSFTAMZNORCLACNGOOGLMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftAmazon.c.Oracle AccentureAlphabet  
1M Rtn-18.4%6.3%5.2%-27.9%13.6%-2.2%1.5%
3M Rtn-17.7%-9.6%-4.1%-32.7%-25.4%0.9%-13.7%
6M Rtn-29.9%-11.7%5.9%-27.1%-49.1%4.3%-19.4%
12M Rtn-25.2%-22.1%7.6%-46.5%-49.6%79.3%-23.6%
3Y Rtn63.1%16.2%88.3%10.8%-52.4%187.6%39.7%
1M Excs Rtn-18.8%5.9%4.8%-28.2%13.2%-2.5%1.2%
3M Excs Rtn-25.1%-13.9%-8.2%-36.5%-33.2%-3.1%-19.5%
6M Excs Rtn-38.8%-24.1%-4.3%-39.9%-57.9%-4.0%-31.4%
12M Excs Rtn-44.8%-41.8%-12.1%-66.7%-67.7%61.5%-43.3%
3Y Excs Rtn3.1%-50.2%17.5%-56.2%-119.0%111.1%-23.6%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Software29,96227,08525,01125,03723,426
Consulting21,05520,69220,88419,10717,844
Infrastructure15,71814,02014,59315,28814,188
Financing737713741645774
Other revenue65207235135335
Other-divested businesses-235397318785
Total67,53562,75261,86160,53057,352


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil1998
Global Services3,757
Server2,842
Software2,588
Global Financing1,165
Technology955
Enterprise Investments-616
Personal Systems-992
Total9,699


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Software60,70759,81157,18658,42058,558
Consulting14,82615,08913,48111,91410,548
Cash and marketable securities14,24312,9078,1386,22212,463
Financing14,07514,40915,75716,88024,974
Infrastructure12,16111,99112,24311,76612,378
Pension assets7,4927,5068,2369,8487,557
Deferred tax assets6,8506,4686,0787,1588,175
Other3,6473,5633,7404,5303,514
Operating right-of-use assets2,0012,0851,5861,9452,368
Plant, other property and equipment1,9521,8381,7602,1962,449
Other-divested businesses746011001,109254
Elimination of internal transactions-853-1,028-1,062-1,608-4,686
Notes and accounts receivable   1,6221,655
Total assets of discontinued operations    15,764
Total137,175135,240127,243132,002155,971


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$205.77 
Market Cap ($ Bil)193.1 
First Trading Date01/02/1962 
Distance from 52W High-37.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$260.51$270.37
DMA Trendindeterminateup
Distance from DMA-21.0%-23.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility76.5%48.5%
Downside Capture65.63112.56
Upside Capture-38.1054.46
Correlation (SPY)5.1%22.5%
IBM Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.620.560.501.010.950.74
Up Beta-0.32-2.11-0.74-0.130.430.55
Down Beta1.461.450.791.181.110.77
Up Capture29%166%112%123%92%82%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days9213464133423
Down Capture86%44%113%146%116%93%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days12202961119327

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with IBM
IBM-26.0%48.3%-0.45-
Sector ETF (XLK)38.8%24.7%1.2717.9%
Equity (SPY)20.0%12.6%1.1622.7%
Gold (GLD)21.2%28.1%0.67-2.4%
Commodities (DBC)33.0%19.1%1.36-5.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.9%14.0%0.7016.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-43.6%42.9%-1.216.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with IBM
IBM13.3%29.8%0.45-
Sector ETF (XLK)19.6%25.6%0.6830.5%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5835.9%
Gold (GLD)17.3%18.4%0.762.3%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%19.5%0.378.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.0430.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)15.2%53.5%0.4612.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with IBM
IBM7.6%27.9%0.30-
Sector ETF (XLK)24.5%24.8%0.8944.4%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.7252.4%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.1%0.582.9%
Commodities (DBC)7.1%17.9%0.3117.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2042.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.5%66.2%0.999.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity34.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 615202614.5%
Average Daily Volume9.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity938.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 7/23/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/14/2026-25.2%-26.6% 
4/22/2026-8.3%-9.8%1.2%
1/28/20265.1%-1.7%-17.9%
10/22/2025-0.9%7.2%1.6%
7/23/2025-7.6%-7.7%-14.5%
4/23/2025-6.6%-1.5%6.0%
1/29/202513.0%15.2%11.1%
10/23/2024-6.2%-12.0%-3.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121115
# Negative13149
Median Positive4.8%5.6%5.0%
Median Negative-6.6%-8.3%-6.4%
Max Positive13.0%15.2%20.7%
Max Negative-25.2%-26.6%-17.9%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/14/2026-25.2%-26.6% 
4/22/2026-8.3%-9.8%1.2%
1/28/20265.1%-1.7%-17.9%
10/22/2025-0.9%7.2%1.6%
7/23/2025-7.6%-7.7%-14.5%
4/23/2025-6.6%-1.5%6.0%
1/29/202513.0%15.2%11.1%
10/23/2024-6.2%-12.0%-3.7%
7/24/20244.3%4.4%7.4%
4/24/2024-8.3%-10.7%-6.4%
1/24/20249.5%5.6%7.8%
10/25/20234.9%6.1%14.5%
7/19/20232.1%4.1%5.0%
4/19/20230.0%-0.4%1.2%
1/25/2023-4.5%-4.0%-6.1%
10/19/20224.7%10.2%20.7%
7/18/2022-5.2%-6.9%0.1%
4/19/20227.1%5.5%4.2%
1/24/20225.7%3.7%-4.1%
10/20/2021-9.6%-11.8%-13.2%
7/19/20211.5%3.5%4.5%
4/19/20213.8%6.3%9.3%
1/21/2021-9.9%-8.8%-7.0%
10/19/2020-6.5%-10.6%-4.9%
7/20/2020-0.2%-0.1%0.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121115
# Negative13149
Median Positive4.8%5.6%5.0%
Median Negative-6.6%-8.3%-6.4%
Max Positive13.0%15.2%20.7%
Max Negative-25.2%-26.6%-17.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/23/202610-Q
12/31/202502/24/202610-K
09/30/202510/23/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/24/202510-Q
12/31/202402/25/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/30/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/26/202410-K
09/30/202310/31/202310-Q
06/30/202307/25/202310-Q
03/31/202304/25/202310-Q
12/31/202202/28/202310-K
09/30/202210/25/202210-Q
06/30/202207/25/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/23/202610-Q
12/31/202502/24/202610-K
09/30/202510/23/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/24/202510-Q
12/31/202402/25/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/30/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/26/202410-K
09/30/202310/31/202310-Q
06/30/202307/25/202310-Q
03/31/202304/25/202310-Q
12/31/202202/28/202310-K
09/30/202210/25/202210-Q
06/30/202207/25/202210-Q
03/31/202204/26/202210-Q
12/31/202102/22/202210-K
09/30/202111/05/202110-Q
06/30/202107/27/202110-Q
03/31/202104/27/202110-Q
12/31/202002/23/202110-K
09/30/202010/27/202010-Q
06/30/202007/28/202010-Q
03/31/202004/28/202010-Q
12/31/201902/25/202010-K
09/30/201910/30/201910-Q
06/30/201907/30/201910-Q

Insider Activity

Updated 4/26/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Howard, Michelle JDirectBuy2252026237.835011,89146,139Form
2Miebach, MichaelDirectBuy2252026233.33434101,264101,264Form
3Farr, David NDirectBuy1302026304.001,000304,0002,814,432Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Howard, Michelle JDirectBuy2252026237.835011,89146,139Form
2Miebach, MichaelDirectBuy2252026233.33434101,264101,264Form
3Farr, David NDirectBuy1302026304.001,000304,0002,814,432Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 23, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$27.8 Mil9.4%34New13F
Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC$34.4 Mil3.7%33ADD +41.5%13F
Unisphere Establishment$88.5 Mil0.7%50TRIM -13.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$27.8 Mil9.4%34New13F
Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC$34.4 Mil3.7%33ADD +41.5%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Benson Investment Management Company, Inc.$6.8 Mil2.4%50ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Unisphere Establishment$88.5 Mil0.7%50TRIM -13.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Unisphere Establishment$88.5 Mil0.7%50TRIM -13.1%13F
Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC$34.4 Mil3.7%33ADD +41.5%13F
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$27.8 Mil9.4%34New13F

IBM Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Avoid

CONVICTION RATIONALE

A severe operational failure has broken the company's growth narrative. Management admitted to a 'software and infrastructure performance shortfall' and a failure to close large deals. With core software growth guided to just 5% and new product performance in question, the path to recovery is unclear and lacks credibility.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid Enterprise (Recurring Software & Project-Based Services/Sales)

Enterprise IT spending cycles x New product adoption (e.g., Z-series) x Growth in recurring software base. Mix shift towards high-margin Software segment revenue.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Is the Q2 operational collapse a temporary stumble or a structural failure of IBM's AI transformation?

Evidence points to a structural failure. The company admitted its new Z mainframe has performance issues and that it failed to adapt, suggesting a deep-seated execution and competitive problem, not just bad timing.

Mechanism: A bull case requires a rapid fix to the Z mainframe, regaining customer trust, and re-accelerating software growth from the guided 5%. This would prove the shortfall was a one-off, allowing the high-margin software business (29.8% margin) to resume its role as the primary profit engine and drive margin expansion.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Software segment profit margin was 29.8% in Q1 2026.
  • Remaining Performance Obligations were approximately $69 billion at March 31, 2026.
  • Software Annual Recurring Revenue was $24.6 billion in Q1 2026, up 10%.
  • Free cash flow relative to net income is 1.14, indicating strong cash conversion.
PRIMARY RISK
Execution Failure and Product Obsolescence

The company's pivot to AI is failing. Management admitted it 'faltered' and that its new Z mainframe has a 'performance shortfall.' This suggests IBM's technology cannot compete with hyperscalers, leading to sustained share loss in its most critical growth markets and a permanent re-rating of the stock.

Mechanism: Continued infrastructure revenue declines below the guided -7% and another software growth miss would confirm the Z mainframe issues are systemic.
Supporting Evidence:
  • The CEO stated, 'this quarter we faltered. We did not adapt and move quickly enough'.
  • A 'software and infrastructure performance shortfall' was admitted for the new Z mainframe.
  • Preliminary Q2 2026 software revenue is anticipated to increase only 5%.
  • Preliminary Q2 2026 infrastructure revenue is anticipated to decline 7%.
  • Numerous large deals failed to close on the timelines we expected.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Software Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Growth$24.6 billion, up 10% year-over-year in Q1 2026 - DeceleratingThe trend for this key metric was one of steady acceleration through the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a solid recurring revenue base. However, this historical strength is now overshadowed by a severe forward-looking deceleration, with preliminary Q2 2026 results guiding for total software revenue growth of only 5%.
Consulting Signings GrowthUp 6% year-over-year in Q1 2026 - Turning aroundConsulting signings, a leading indicator for the services business, showed a positive turnaround in the first quarter of 2026. This suggests a potential stabilization in demand for consulting projects after a period of weakness. However, the overall company performance issues revealed in July may impact future signings.
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)approximately $69 billion (At March 31, 2026)Represents the total contract value of work under contract that has not yet been performed or recognized as revenue, providing visibility into future revenue streams from committed customer contracts.
Trailing-Twelve-Month (TTM) Revenue Growth9.7% year-over-year (For the twelve months ended 6/30/2026)Indicates the company's recent top-line growth trajectory over a full year, smoothing out quarterly volatility.
Latest-Quarter Revenue Growth9.5% year-over-year (For the quarter ended 6/30/2026)The most recent measure of top-line momentum compared to the prior year.
Core Investment Debate

Incumbency Moat vs. Innovation Failure

BULL VIEW

IBM's deep enterprise incumbency and $69 billion in remaining performance obligations provide a resilient foundation. The recent 25.2% stock drop is an overreaction to a single bad quarter that management can fix, creating a value opportunity.

CORE TENSION

Can the sticky installed base offset a 'performance shortfall' in the new Z mainframe, which caused a 25.2% stock drop?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

The latest evidence favors the bears. The CEO's admission that the company 'faltered' and 'did not adapt' points to a fundamental, not temporary, problem.

BEAR VIEW

The 'performance shortfall' in the new Z mainframe proves the innovation engine is broken. Incumbency cannot save IBM from technologically superior rivals like Microsoft, which outspends it on capex by more than 50-to-1.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
9/7/2026
Confirmation of Competitive Capex Loss
Watch: Peer earnings calls (Oracle, Accenture, etc.) detailing enterprise IT spending trends and market share gains.
9/24/2026
Accenture Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Accenture (ACN) is scheduled to report earnings.
10/21/2026
Official Earnings Miss and Guidance Cut
Watch: Confirmation of the Q2 miss and a formal downward revision to full-year 2026 guidance.
10/21/2026
Z Mainframe AI Performance Scrutiny
Watch: Management commentary on Z platform adoption, remediation plans, or further evidence of performance issues impacting sales.
10/27/2026
Alphabet Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report earnings.
No set date
Securities Class Action Lawsuit Filing
Watch: A formal announcement of a consolidated class action lawsuit being filed, which would escalate legal risk and costs.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-07-14
Major Q2 Shortfall Pre-announced
Details: IBM reported preliminary Q2 results with an infrastructure revenue decline of 7% and software revenue growth of only 5%, causing the stock to fall 25.2%.
-27.2%
$290.23 -> $211.20
2026-07-09
AI Software Development Tool Updated
Details: IBM announced major updates to IBM Bob, its enterprise AI software development tool, with new multi-agent capabilities and specialized modernization workflows.
-4.8%
$302.05 -> $287.56
2026-06-02
Analyst Lifts Price Target
Details: Wedbush Securities raised its price target on IBM, citing confidence in execution and that AI disruption fears proved unfounded.
-4.6%
$320.42 -> $305.63
2026-04-22
Negative Post-Earnings Stock Reaction
Details: The company's stock had a negative two-day reaction of -10.0% following its earnings call.
-9.6%
$253.81 -> $229.39
2026-03-17
Confluent Acquisition Completed
Details: The company completed its acquisition of all outstanding shares of Confluent, Inc. for a total purchase price of $11.59 billion.
+0.9%
$247.43 -> $249.76
2026-02-10
New AI-Powered Storage Launch
Details: IBM introduced a new FlashSystem portfolio, including three new enterprise storage systems, powered by agentic AI to reduce storage management efforts.
-7.4%
$292.51 -> $270.82
2026-01-28
Positive Post-Earnings Stock Reaction
Details: The company's stock had a positive two-day reaction of 5.0% following its earnings call.
+5.2%
$290.06 -> $305.24
Risk Management
Position Sizing

2% - 4%

REDUCED POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: IBM trades at roughly 41% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.8x the market), around the 88th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Pure-Play AI Scale

Offers exposure to the AI infrastructure boom at massive scale, with capital expenditures of $97.2 billion versus IBM's $1.7 billion.

Core Thesis: Capturing a dominant share of enterprise AI workloads through its integrated cloud and software stack.
ACN - Accenture
Consistent Consulting Execution

Provides pure-play exposure to the global IT consulting trend without the cyclical risk and performance questions associated with IBM's hardware business.

Core Thesis: A consistent execution compounder capitalizing on enterprise digital transformation and outsourcing.
How Is The Market Pricing IBM?

A legacy tech giant in a multi-year pivot to software and AI that has shown growth but just hit a significant execution and demand-related air pocket.

IBM is a software-led hybrid cloud and AI platform company, moving away from its legacy hardware and services profile. Its growth is driven by enterprise demand for digital transformation, with its high-margin Software segment as the core profit engine. However, the company recently stumbled, revealing a significant revenue shortfall due to failed deal closures, client capex shifts, and performance issues with its new flagship mainframe, calling its near-term predictability into question.

What will confirm the thesis

A return to double-digit software growth, stabilization in infrastructure, and evidence that large deal closures are back on track.

What will damage the thesis

Continued deal slippage, further market share loss in key segments, or confirmation that the new Z-series mainframe has persistent performance issues impacting adoption.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Minor acquisitions or divestitures that don't materially change the segment mix.

Repricing Catalyst

The July 14, 2026, pre-announcement of a revenue shortfall, which caused the stock to plummet 25.2% and triggered multiple securities fraud investigations.

What IBM Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on fiscal year 2025 filings (the latest reported segment data)
Software
$30.0B TTM (44% of Total)
What It Is

Sells hybrid cloud and AI platforms, including data management, automation, and transaction processing software, to enterprise clients globally.

Who Pays & How

Enterprises pay for software to run and manage their IT infrastructure, develop applications, and deploy AI. They choose IBM for its deep integration, security, and ability to operate across hybrid environments (on-premise and cloud).

Primarily recurring revenue from subscriptions and capacity-based consumption models.
Competition
Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, SAP
Competitors range from large multinational enterprises to smaller, niche players.
The depth and breadth of its software offerings, global reach, deep industry expertise, and research capabilities, particularly its hybrid cloud and AI platforms that allow clients to manage applications and data across any environment.
Consulting
$21.1B TTM (31% of Total)
What It Is

Provides business consulting, systems integration, application development, and business process outsourcing services to enterprise clients.

Who Pays & How

Enterprises pay for strategic advice and technical expertise to execute digital and AI transformations. They choose IBM for its industry expertise and ability to integrate IBM technology and partner solutions to achieve business outcomes.

Project-based fees for services rendered.
Competition
Accenture, Capgemini, India-based service providers, management consulting firms
Competitors include global firms, management consulting practices of public accounting firms, and niche specialists.
Industry expertise, hybrid cloud, data, and AI capabilities, and the use of IBM technology and ecosystem partners to deliver solutions aligned to clients' strategic priorities.
Infrastructure
$15.7B TTM (23% of Total)
What It Is

Sells on-premise and cloud-based server (IBM Z, Power) and storage solutions to enterprise clients for mission-critical and AI workloads.

Who Pays & How

Enterprises with needs for high security, scalability, and reliability for core business operations (like transaction processing) pay for IBM's hardware.

Primarily direct hardware sales and associated support services.
Competition
Dell Technologies, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), Intel
Original device manufacturers (ODMs) and cloud service providers offer alternative routes to market for server and storage systems.
Differentiation through investments in higher-value capabilities, including security, scalability, and reliability, designed for mission-critical and AI workloads.
Financing
$737M TTM (1% of Total)
What It Is

Provides client and commercial financing to facilitate IBM clients' acquisition of hardware, software, and services.

Who Pays & How

IBM clients use financing to manage cash flow when purchasing IBM's products and services.

Interest income on financing arrangements.
Competition
Non-captive financing entities and financial institutions
Ability to manage credit and residual value risk, IT product experience, and global capabilities.
IBM Evolution: Price Return by Era
Incorporated 1911, renamed 1924 · Founding and Early Dominance
The company was founded as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. and renamed International Business Machines Corporation in 1924, focusing on business insight and technological innovation with an international scope.
· Hybrid Cloud and AI Transformation
In recent years, IBM has strategically shifted its portfolio to become a software-led hybrid cloud and AI platform company, focusing on higher-growth markets and moving into areas like quantum computing to differentiate itself.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-11 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · Death Cross
2 Momentum Deteriorating
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution
5 Volatility Expanded
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Falling
7 Earnings Reaction History Consistent Pressure
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/22/2026