International Business Machines (IBM)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $304.01 | Market Cap: $283.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
International Business Machines (IBM)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $304.01Market Cap: $283.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% | Key risksIBM key risks include [1] intense competition from major hyperscalers in the hybrid cloud market, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% |
| Key risksIBM key risks include [1] intense competition from major hyperscalers in the hybrid cloud market, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Performance. IBM announced third-quarter 2025 earnings results on October 22, 2025, demonstrating accelerated performance across all segments and exceeding expectations for revenue, profit, and free cash flow. Revenue increased by 9% (7% at constant currency), with software revenue up 10% and consulting revenue up 3%. The company's AI book of business also reached over $9.5 billion.2. Raised Free Cash Flow (FCF) Outlook. IBM raised its full-year 2025 adjusted free cash flow outlook to $14 billion, an increase from its earlier projection of $13.5 billion. This improved FCF outlook was noted as a factor that could potentially drive the stock higher.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.5% change in IBM stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 32.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 9242025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 266.06 | 304.56 | 14.47% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 64038.00 | 65402.00 | 2.13% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.11% | 12.09% | 32.73% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.46 | 35.97 | -15.28% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 930.81 | 933.86 | -0.33% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.47% |
Market Drivers
9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IBM | 14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.4% | 38.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.1% | 31.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.9% change in IBM stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 38.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 6252025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 287.52 | 304.56 | 5.93% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 62830.00 | 65402.00 | 4.09% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.71% | 12.09% | 38.79% |
| P/E Multiple | 48.75 | 35.97 | -26.22% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 928.00 | 933.86 | -0.63% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.92% |
Market Drivers
6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IBM | 5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.0% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.5% | 29.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.2% change in IBM stock from 12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 18.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12242024 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 218.76 | 304.56 | 39.22% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 62577.00 | 65402.00 | 4.51% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.22% | 12.09% | 18.27% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.58 | 35.97 | 13.89% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 923.58 | 933.86 | -1.11% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.21% |
Market Drivers
12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IBM | 39.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 46.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.2% | 41.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 139.9% change in IBM stock from 12/25/2022 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 480.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12252022 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 126.96 | 304.56 | 139.89% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 60532.00 | 65402.00 | 8.05% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.08% | 12.09% | 480.35% |
| P/E Multiple | 91.03 | 35.97 | -60.48% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 904.10 | 933.86 | -3.29% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 139.63% |
Market Drivers
12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IBM | 99.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.9% | 44.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 54.1% | 38.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IBM Return | -1% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 39% | 42% | 206% |
| Peers Return | 40% | 44% | -31% | 52% | 31% | 17% | 223% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IBM Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 67% | 28% | 68% | 63% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IBM Max Drawdown | -29% | -6% | -9% | -12% | -3% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -6% | -39% | -4% | -7% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, ACN, GOOGL. See IBM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IBM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 974 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, ORCL, INTC, GLOB, BAO
In The Past
International Business Machines's stock fell -20.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -20.2% loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few brief analogies to describe IBM:
- Like Accenture meets Microsoft's enterprise cloud (Azure).
- The Oracle of hybrid cloud, AI, and business transformation for large enterprises.
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- IBM Z Mainframes: High-performance, secure servers designed for large-scale transaction processing and mission-critical workloads.
- IBM Power Systems: Servers optimized for data-intensive applications, AI, and hybrid cloud environments.
- IBM Storage Systems: Enterprise solutions for data management, backup, and disaster recovery, including flash, disk, and tape.
- Red Hat Enterprise Linux & OpenShift: Industry-leading enterprise Linux operating system and a Kubernetes platform for containerized application deployment.
- IBM Db2: A family of relational database management systems for various operating systems and workloads.
- IBM Watson (AI Software): A suite of enterprise AI products for natural language processing, machine learning, and automation.
- IBM Cloud Paks: Containerized software solutions, built on Red Hat OpenShift, for data, AI, automation, security, and integration.
- IBM Security Software: Solutions for identity, access, data, and threat management to protect enterprise assets.
- IBM Consulting (Professional Services): Provides expertise in business transformation, technology strategy, digital experience, and cloud adoption.
- Managed Infrastructure Services (Managed Services): Manages clients' IT infrastructure, including cloud and data center operations, to optimize performance and reduce costs.
- Technology Support Services (Support Services): Offers technical support, maintenance, and repair for IBM and multi-vendor hardware and software products.
- IBM Cloud Platform (Cloud Platform Services): Offers a comprehensive suite of cloud computing services including infrastructure, platform, and software as a service for application development and deployment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
International Business Machines (IBM) primarily sells its technology, software, and consulting services to other businesses (B2B), governments, and large organizations worldwide, rather than directly to individual consumers.
Due to the highly diversified nature of its client base across numerous industries and geographies, IBM does not typically have "major customers" in the traditional sense, where a significant portion of its total revenue comes from a single customer or a small group of customers. Its Annual Reports consistently indicate that no single client accounts for a material percentage (e.g., more than 10%) of its total revenue.
However, IBM serves a vast array of global enterprises. The following are examples of prominent public companies and sectors that are known to leverage IBM's offerings for their critical operations, digital transformation, and hybrid cloud strategies. These examples illustrate the types of large organizations that are IBM clients, rather than representing exclusive or concentrated revenue sources:
- Financial Services: Large banks, insurance companies, and investment firms often rely on IBM's zSystems mainframes for secure transaction processing, data management, and compliance, as well as its software and consulting services.
- Example: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
- Example: Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
- Example: Citigroup Inc. (C)
- Telecommunications: Global telecommunication providers utilize IBM's hybrid cloud, AI, and automation solutions to manage complex networks, enhance customer experiences, and develop new services.
- Example: AT&T Inc. (T)
- Example: Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
- Government & Public Sector: Various governmental agencies, defense organizations, and public institutions worldwide use IBM for large-scale IT infrastructure, data management, security, and digital transformation initiatives. (Note: These are typically not public companies with stock symbols).
- Retail & Consumer Goods: Major retailers and consumer product companies deploy IBM solutions for supply chain optimization, customer engagement platforms, and analytics to drive efficiency and innovation.
- Example: Walmart Inc. (WMT)
- Example: The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Healthcare & Life Sciences: Pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, and research institutions leverage IBM's expertise in data analytics, cloud, and AI for drug discovery, patient care, and operational improvements.
- Example: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
- Example: Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
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- GlobalFoundries (GFS)
- Intel (INTC)
- Micron Technology (MU)
- Western Digital (WDC)
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Arvind Krishna, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Arvind Krishna has served as the Chairman and CEO of IBM since January 2021 and April 2020, respectively. He has been with IBM since 1990, starting at the Thomas J. Watson Research Center. Krishna was the chief architect of IBM's largest acquisition, the $34 billion Red Hat deal, which closed in July 2019. He has been instrumental in advancing IBM's focus on hybrid cloud and AI technologies, leading the expansion of new markets in artificial intelligence, cloud, quantum computing, and blockchain technology. Prior to his CEO role, he held leadership positions including Senior Vice President of Cloud and Cognitive Software and Director of IBM Research.
James J. Kavanaugh, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
James J. Kavanaugh is the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of IBM, a position he has held since January 2018. In this role, he oversees IBM's worldwide financial operations, including accounting, treasury, investor relations, and corporate strategy. He also continues to oversee Transformation & Operations, including the Chief Information Office and Global Chief Data Office. Kavanaugh joined IBM in 1996. Before joining IBM, he served as the Chief Financial Officer of Americas Global Services at AT&T Corporation. His career at IBM has included roles such as Vice President of Finance for IBM's Sales and Distribution worldwide and Controller.
Rob Thomas, Senior Vice President, Software and Chief Commercial Officer
Rob Thomas oversees IBM's software business, including global product, development, business, and revenue. He also serves as the Chief Commercial Officer, responsible for all go-to-market activities across IBM's portfolio. Thomas has been a driving force behind IBM's transition to AI and analytics and directed major acquisitions totaling over $12 billion to strengthen IBM's software capabilities. He has a 20-year tenure at IBM, with leadership roles in consulting, microelectronics, and software.
Jonathan H. Adashek, Senior Vice President, Marketing and Communications
Jonathan H. Adashek leads IBM's global Marketing, Communications, and Corporate Social Responsibility efforts. He is responsible for aligning the company's brand and managing federal client business development, as well as overseeing strategic communication initiatives worldwide.
Mohamad Ali, Senior Vice President, IBM Consulting
Mohamad Ali leads IBM Consulting, directing global business transformation and technology services through industry expertise and strategic partnerships. He is responsible for driving client solutions and expanding the company's consulting footprint by leveraging IBM technology and AI. Prior to joining IBM, Mohamad Ali served as CEO of IDG and Carbonite, and was Chief Strategy Officer at Hewlett Packard.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company International Business Machines (IBM) faces several key risks inherent in the rapidly evolving technology sector.
- Cybersecurity and AI Security/Governance: IBM's business is highly susceptible to cybersecurity threats, including sophisticated attacks like ransomware and malicious software that exploit vulnerabilities in hardware, software, and infrastructure. The increasing adoption of generative AI introduces novel attack methods and expands cyber risk frontiers, with concerns that AI adoption is outpacing security measures. IBM's own reports highlight a shift in attacker tactics towards credential theft and stealthier intrusions. A lack of adequate AI access controls and the prevalence of "shadow AI" (unapproved AI tool usage) contribute significantly to data breaches and operational disruptions, leading to potential liability, litigation, reputational damage, and financial losses.
- Intense Competition and Market Shifts: IBM operates within a fiercely competitive technology landscape, vying with major hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud in hybrid cloud and enterprise software, and global systems integrators in consulting. The company must constantly anticipate and respond to evolving customer and market preferences, disruptive technologies, and emerging business models to prevent declines in demand for its offerings. Despite strategic shifts towards hybrid cloud and AI, IBM still trails some key competitors in market share within certain cloud segments.
- Workforce Transformation and Talent Gaps: The rapid advancements in generative AI necessitate significant workforce transformation, including the retraining and reskilling of a substantial portion of IBM's workforce. There is a recognized challenge in attracting and retaining specialized AI talent, as well as a broader skills shortage in critical areas like the IBM i platform due to retiring experienced developers. Successful generative AI adoption hinges significantly on people's readiness and comfort with the technology, which often outpaces deployment speeds, posing operational and cultural hurdles.
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- Intensified competition from hyperscale cloud providers (Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform) as they increasingly expand beyond infrastructure and platform services to offer comprehensive enterprise consulting, managed services, and industry-specific solutions, directly encroaching on IBM's traditional strengths in enterprise software and professional services.
- The rapid advancement and widespread availability of highly capable generative AI and large language models (LLMs) from specialized AI companies and hyperscale cloud providers. This trend can commoditize aspects of enterprise AI development and reduce reliance on proprietary AI platforms, potentially challenging IBM's Watsonx offerings and AI consulting business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
IBM operates across several significant and growing addressable markets, primarily focusing on software, consulting, and infrastructure solutions, with a strong emphasis on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI).
Software
IBM's software portfolio, which includes Hybrid Cloud Platform & Solutions (such as Red Hat OpenShift), Automation, Data & AI, and Transaction Processing, addresses the broader enterprise software market. The global enterprise software market was valued at approximately $280.49 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around $761.73 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 11.74% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate places the global enterprise software market at $316.69 billion in 2025, expected to grow to $403.90 billion by 2030, excluding administrative software, office suites, and collaboration tools. Using a broader definition that includes infrastructure, security software, and databases, the market was estimated at $899.9 billion in 2024. IBM's annual recurring revenue (ARR) for its hybrid platform and solutions within its software segment stood at $14.9 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year increase.
Consulting
IBM Consulting, formerly IBM Global Business Services, provides a range of professional services, including strategy and management consulting, experience design, technology and systems integration, and operations, with a focus on digital transformation, hybrid cloud architectures, and AI services. The global IT consulting services market is substantial. It was valued at an estimated $78.03 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to reach $93.73 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 6.5% during that period. Other estimates indicate the global IT consulting services market could reach $117.1 billion by the end of 2025 and grow to $278.779 billion by 2033. Another source valued the global IT consulting services market at $561.8 billion in 2024, projected to reach $906.47 billion by 2032.
Infrastructure
IBM's infrastructure offerings encompass hardware (such as IBM z series mainframes, Power Systems, and storage solutions), as well as Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) and hybrid infrastructure. The global Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) market was valued at $142.35 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from $158.89 billion in 2025 to $396.01 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.9% during the forecast period. The global hybrid cloud market is also a significant addressable market for IBM, estimated at $172.77 billion in 2025 and projected to grow to $311.75 billion by 2030. Furthermore, the global Infrastructure Services market is projected to be $159.8 billion in 2025, expanding to $810.55 billion by 2033. For IBM-specific server and storage products through VARs, the global IBM Server VARs market size is estimated at $11.75 billion in 2025, projected to reach $22.07 billion by 2033. The global IBM Storage VARs market is expected to be $5.98 billion in 2025, growing to $9.62 billion by 2033.
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
IBM's AI capabilities, notably through its Watsonx platform, target a rapidly expanding market for AI solutions and services. The global IBM Watson services market was valued at $5.50 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $76.47 billion by 2033, demonstrating an impressive CAGR of 30.1% from 2023 to 2033. IBM's generative AI business has shown strong momentum, with bookings exceeding $6 billion since its inception. Approximately three-quarters of this generative AI business has been through consulting engagements, with the remaining quarter from software.
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International Business Machines (IBM) - Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth
Over the next 2-3 years, International Business Machines (IBM) is strategically positioned for revenue growth, primarily driven by its focus on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, strong performance in its Software segment, the continued evolution of its Infrastructure offerings, and growth within its Consulting arm. The company has consistently highlighted these areas as key to its future expansion and has provided forward guidance reflecting this outlook. Here are the key expected drivers of future revenue growth for IBM: * Hybrid Cloud and AI Portfolio Expansion: A significant driver of IBM's future revenue growth is the continued expansion and adoption of its hybrid cloud and AI offerings. The company's "generative AI book of business" has been steadily increasing, reaching over $9.5 billion by Q3 2025, demonstrating strong client demand for AI-driven solutions across its portfolio. IBM's strategy emphasizes enabling clients to leverage a mix of models, including IBM's own Granite models, open models, and their proprietary models, which are touted for their cost-efficiency. This focus on AI is integrated into both its software and consulting segments, contributing significantly to growth in these areas. * Software Segment Strength, particularly Red Hat and Automation: The Software segment continues to be a robust engine for IBM's revenue growth, with consistent performance and optimistic projections. In Q3 2025, software revenue grew 10%, with automation experiencing significant growth of 22%. Red Hat, a key component of the hybrid cloud platform, is expected to maintain mid-teens growth for 2025, fueled by consistent double-digit bookings growth and demand for its hybrid cloud solutions. Acquisitions like HashiCorp are also expected to contribute to software revenue, with an anticipated contribution of approximately $600 million in fiscal year 2025. * Innovation and Demand for IBM zSystems: The launch and strong performance of new mainframe systems, specifically the z17 platform, are crucial for the Infrastructure segment's revenue growth. The z17 system, purpose-built for AI and hybrid cloud, offers breakthrough capabilities in real-time inferencing and quantum-safe security. The early success of the z17 platform fueled a 59% year-to-year increase in IBM z revenue in Q3 2025, marking its highest third-quarter revenue in nearly two decades. This strong mainframe cycle is anticipated to continue through 2025 and into early 2026. * Consulting Services for AI and Digital Transformation: IBM's Consulting segment is showing renewed growth, driven by increasing demand for AI services and solutions that accelerate AI transformation and maximize returns for clients. After a period of cautious growth, consulting revenue returned to growth in Q3 2025, improving sequentially. This growth reflects solid demand for strategic offerings such as business application transformation, application modernization and migration, and application operations, as clients actively seek partners to design, deploy, and govern AI at scale. The "consulting generative AI book of business" exceeded $1 billion in Q2 2025, further underscoring this trend.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- IBM suspended its share repurchase program in 2019 following the Red Hat acquisition to prioritize debt reduction.
- As of December 31, 2024, IBM retained approximately $2.008 billion in authorized funds for common stock repurchases.
- No significant stock buybacks have been resumed by IBM through 2023 and into 2024.
Share Issuance
- IBM issued 12,253,153 shares in 2024, 9,794,240 shares in 2023, and 8,539,072 shares in 2022 as part of its stock-based compensation plans and employee stock purchase plan.
- The dollar amount of stock issued for the trailing twelve months ended June 2025 was $401 million.
Outbound Investments
- IBM has actively pursued acquisitions to bolster its hybrid cloud and AI strategy, completing 11 acquisitions in 2024 with a total investment of $3.3 billion. Notable acquisitions in 2024 include HashiCorp for an enterprise value of $6.4 billion.
- In 2023, IBM acquired 3 companies, including Manta Software Inc., and announced its intent to acquire Software AG's StreamSets and webMethods platforms for €2.13 billion ($2.33 billion).
- During 2022, IBM acquired 8 companies, investing over $2 billion, focusing on areas like cloud consulting, data quality management, and digital transformation services.
Capital Expenditures
- IBM's capital expenditures have shown a decreasing trend, with values of $2.618 billion in 2020, $2.062 billion in 2021, $1.346 billion in 2022, $1.245 billion in 2023, and $1.048 billion in 2024.
- The latest twelve months capital expenditures, ending September 30, 2025, amounted to $1.012 billion.
- IBM announced a plan in April 2025 to invest $150 billion in America over the next five years, including over $30 billion in research and development for American manufacturing of mainframe and quantum computers.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to IBM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.9% | 13.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.0% | 17.0% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 10312018 | IBM | International Business Machines | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 24.8% | 21.5% | -5.6% |
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Peer Comparisons for International Business Machines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 287.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,518.7 |
| Rev LTM | 182,269 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47,840 |
| FCF LTM | 12,668 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16,715 |
| CFO LTM | 71,716 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 58,425 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,518.7 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| P/EBIT | 25.8 |
| P/E | 34.8 |
| P/CFO | 22.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 146.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 68.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software | 25,011 | 25,037 | 23,426 | 22,927 | 22,891 |
| Consulting | 20,884 | 19,107 | 17,844 | 16,257 | 16,798 |
| Infrastructure | 14,593 | 15,288 | 14,188 | 14,533 | 7,604 |
| Financing | 741 | 645 | 774 | 975 | 1,400 |
| Other-divested businesses | 397 | 318 | 785 | 101 | 930 |
| Other revenue | 235 | 135 | 335 | 387 | 162 |
| Global Technology Services | 27,361 | ||||
| Total | 61,861 | 60,530 | 57,352 | 55,180 | 77,146 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software | 59,811 | 57,186 | 58,420 | 58,558 | 58,342 |
| Consulting | 15,089 | 13,481 | 11,914 | 10,548 | 10,136 |
| Financing | 14,409 | 15,757 | 16,880 | 24,974 | 29,568 |
| Cash and marketable securities | 12,907 | 8,138 | 6,222 | 12,463 | 7,308 |
| Infrastructure | 11,991 | 12,243 | 11,766 | 12,378 | 4,590 |
| Pension assets | 7,506 | 8,236 | 9,848 | 7,557 | 6,865 |
| Deferred tax assets | 6,468 | 6,078 | 7,158 | 8,175 | 4,995 |
| Other | 3,563 | 3,740 | 4,530 | 3,514 | 3,077 |
| Operating right-of-use assets | 2,085 | 1,586 | 1,945 | 2,368 | 3,530 |
| Plant, other property and equipment | 1,838 | 1,760 | 2,196 | 2,449 | 2,262 |
| Other-divested businesses | 601 | 100 | 1,109 | 254 | 1,906 |
| Elimination of internal transactions | -1,028 | -1,062 | -1,608 | -4,686 | -4,317 |
| Notes and accounts receivable | 1,622 | 1,655 | 1,488 | ||
| Total assets of discontinued operations | 15,764 | ||||
| Global Technology Services | 22,436 | ||||
| Total | 135,240 | 127,243 | 132,002 | 155,971 | 152,186 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $304.56 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 284.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $301.67 | $268.38 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 1.0% | 13.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.2% | 30.1% |
| Downside Capture | 39.56 | 66.50 |
| Upside Capture | 94.70 | 89.46 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.5% | 46.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.95 | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Up Beta | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.12 | 1.40 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| Down Beta | 0.77 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | 74% | 113% | 142% | 78% | 84% | 56% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 38 | 70 | 136 | 420 |
| Down Capture | 98% | 72% | 41% | 65% | 76% | 86% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 24 | 55 | 112 | 329 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of IBM With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 39.5% | 26.7% | 19.2% | 71.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | -10.4% |
| Annualized Volatility | 29.9% | 27.6% | 19.5% | 19.3% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.12 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 2.69 | 0.36 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 41.2% | 45.8% | 9.1% | 17.0% | 42.2% | 15.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of IBM With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 25.5% | 19.0% | 14.9% | 18.7% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 32.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 23.6% | 24.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.94 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.51 | 0.17 | 0.59 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 36.2% | 43.7% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 38.7% | 11.3% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of IBM With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 13.3% | 22.3% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 24.7% | 24.2% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.52 | 0.84 | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 51.3% | 59.8% | 3.4% | 23.6% | 48.8% | 10.3% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -0.9% | 7.2% | 1.6% |
| 7/23/2025 | -7.6% | -7.7% | -14.5% |
| 4/23/2025 | -6.6% | -1.5% | 6.0% |
| 1/29/2025 | 13.0% | 15.2% | 11.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | -6.2% | -12.0% | -3.7% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.4% |
| 4/24/2024 | -8.3% | -10.7% | -6.4% |
| 1/24/2024 | 9.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -7.3% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 13.0% | 15.2% | 20.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.9% | -12.0% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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